Friday, August7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Butler, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 8:06PM Friday August 7, 2020 6:59 PM CDT (23:59 UTC) Moonrise 10:25PMMoonset 9:40AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 506 Pm Cdt Fri Aug 7 2020
Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then rising to 10 to 15 knots after midnight becoming south 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..South wind 10 to 15 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots late in the morning, then rising to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots late in the evening, then veering southwest after midnight becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.
Sunday..South wind 5 to 15 knots becoming 10 to 15 knots late in the morning, then becoming south 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.
LMZ644 Expires:202008080400;;092569 FZUS53 KMKX 072206 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 506 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-080400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Butler, WI
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location: 43.12, -88.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 072103 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 403 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

SHORT TERM. (Issued 402 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020)

Tonight through Sunday night:

Convection is firing along the nose of a low level jet and shortwave trough over eastern ND and northwest WI this afternoon. These should ride the ridge across northern WI and the U.P. of Michigan tonight and southern WI should remain dry. The main shortwave trough may phase with a weaker shortwave trough associated with another nose of a low level jetlet that could be tracking through IA/MO tonight. If the phasing occurs, it could bring just enough forcing to support scattered thunderstorms in southern WI late Saturday morning into the afternoon. Models are showing varying degrees of capping due to 850mb warm air advection, but instability is on the high side, with forecast CAPE over 2000 j/kg. Shear looks modest at 20 kt.

High temperatures on Saturday will be in the mid 80s. With dewpoints around 70, heat index values should top out in the upper 80s.

The low level jet and 850mb warm air advection will likely remain in the corridor from southern MN to central IA to western IL Saturday night and southern WI should remain dry. By Sunday afternoon, that warm air advection will slide through southern WI and we will see a small chance of storms with this feature. The main feature to watch for Sunday will be a cluster of thunderstorms that is expected to develop over SD Sunday morning and track across MN and then across central and mainly northern portions of southern WI Sunday night. This would be coincident with a little shortwave or remnant piece of energy from the Plains.

High temperatures on Sunday will be a little higher, topping out in the upper 80s. Max heat index values will be in the lower 90s due to dewpoints in the lower 70s.

We are not outlooked in any marginal or slight risk areas by SPC for Days 2 or 3 at this time due to large uncertainty and marginal severe parameters.

Cronce

LONG TERM. (Issued 402 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020)

Monday through Friday:

The main shortwave trough that is sitting over the Northern Plains and southern Canada will swing a surface trough and weak cold front through the Great Lakes on Monday. The wave weakens/lags a bit on the southern edge through southern WI. Thus we have a chance for thunderstorms along this front as it tracks through southern WI on Monday. There is a t least a small risk of severe thunderstorms due to high CAPE and modest shear along this front, but the best synoptic forcing looks like it misses southern WI.

Tuesday through Thursday should feature quiet weather across southern WI. Highs will be in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the 50s, so this will be a nice stretch of summer weather.

By Friday, the GFS tries to bring a round of storms into WI, but the ECMWF keeps us high and dry.

Cronce

AVIATION. (Issued 402 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020)

For the 21Z TAFs:

Today and most of tonight will continue to be quiet for aviation weather. There may be storms that track across MN tonight and into central WI Saturday morning. There is a possibility for few showers and thunderstorms to develop late Saturday morning into the afternoon across southern WI. There are increasing chances for thunderstorms as a cold front slowly sags through the region this weekend and into Monday.

Cronce

MARINE. (Issued 402 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020)

Increasing southerly winds will build high waves over the north half of the lake on Saturday. High waves are expected for the nearshore zone from Port Washington and north Saturday afternoon and evening. Thus, hazardous beach conditions will be possible as well. There are increasing chances for thunderstorms as a cold front slowly sags through the region this weekend and into Monday.

Cronce

BEACHES. (Issued 402 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020)

Gusty southerly winds will build high waves along the lakeshore from Port Washington and northward through the Sheboygan area on Saturday. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect due to a high swim risk Saturday afternoon and evening.

Cronce

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Beach Hazards Statement . WIZ052-WIZ060 . 1 PM Saturday to midnight Sunday.

LM . Small Craft Advisory . LMZ643 . 1 PM Saturday to midnight Sunday.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45013 10 mi59 min ESE 12 G 14 72°F 72°F2 ft1020.2 hPa (-1.4)
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 11 mi49 min SE 11 G 12 73°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 21 mi79 min SSE 11 G 14 73°F 1021 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 39 mi59 min SE 9.9 G 11 76°F 1019.3 hPa (-1.7)
45187 46 mi39 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 74°F 73°F1 ft
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 47 mi59 min SSE 14 G 15 71°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI1 mi74 minESE 610.00 miClear77°F55°F47%1020 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI11 mi74 minSE 610.00 miClear77°F57°F51%1020.3 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI13 mi67 minSE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F61°F60%1019.6 hPa
West Bend Municipal Airport, WI23 mi64 minSE 610.00 miFair75°F59°F57%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMWC

Wind History from MWC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5E5SE4E7E7SE11
G15
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1 day agoSE5SE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5E5E4E6SE5E7SE8E7E6SE5E5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW3W3CalmSW4W5--W6W4W9
G14
W6
G10
NW10N5E8SE6SE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.