Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Butler, WI

SHORT TERM
Issued 1238 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

The rest of tonight through Tuesday:

Weak low pressure will gradually lift northeast through the forecast area tonight into Tuesday, with continued scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder at times. The shower chances will wind down from southwest to northeast overnight into Tuesday, with the chances mainly east of Madison by Tue afternoon as the low begins to pull away from the area.

Mild temps are expected overnight tonight due to the moist airmass and persistent clouds. Bumped Tue high temps down a couple degrees from the previous forecast given the expected lingering clouds tomorrow.

DDV

LONG TERM
Issued 1238 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Tuesday night through Monday:

An area of moisture and warm air advection is expected to lift into the forecast area Tue night into early Wed. This may kick off a round of thunderstorms after midnight. Latest guidance is showing plenty of instability hanging on overnight along with modest 0-6 km shear around 30 knots. Additionally, mid-level lapse rates are expected to be upwards of 8-9 C/km Tue night into early Wed. If storms do develop overnight, confidence is increasing for a severe threat, with hail being the primary concern.

Storms should wind down by mid-morning Wednesday, with a break in activity likely late morning into the afternoon. This should be enough time for instability to build back up across southern Wisconsin, with another round of storms possible by early evening as a shortwave moves into the area. This second round of storms may develop just to the west of the forecast area, though initialization looks close enough for some possible discrete cells in at least the west before storms may eventually organize into a line. Shear is expected to be a bit stronger by evening, especially in the low levels. All hazards will be possible at first, likely transitioning to a wind and QLCS tornado threat as the storms progress eastward if they develop into a line. Still some time for the finer details of the severe storm concern to change given the complexity of storm timing, peak heating, effective boundaries, and so on. Overall though, confidence is increasing in this second round of potential severe storms for southern Wisconsin.

In between the two rounds of storms, there should be some breaks in the clouds, allowing temps to warm towards 90 degrees most places. Given dewpoints in at least the low 70s, heat indices may approach or hit 100 degrees, so this period is still being watched for a potential Heat Advisory.

Showers and storms Wed should exit the east by early Wed night, with dry weather likely overnight into early Thursday. The main shortwave and cold front are expected approach from the west during the day Thursday, with another round of storms possible as this better forcing moves through the area. Model instability points to the south half of the forecast area as having the best chance to see another round of storms, with a decent shot at another severe potential if convection rolls through the area. Deep layer shear is looking a bit stronger Thu than Wed, with ample instability and solid lapse rates as well. Warm and humid conditions are expected again Thursday, with the warmest conditions likely in the east.

Dry weather is expected Friday behind the departing low and front, with high temps back towards normal values. Dewpoints will be lower as well, likely settling into the 50s most places.

Saturday through Monday are trending a bit more active, with multiple shortwaves likely to move through the region during this period. There is a lot of spread with the timing and placement of individual waves along with the depth of the moisture, amount of instability, etc. Kept precip chances on the lower end for now given the lingering uncertainties.

DDV

AVIATION
Issued 1238 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Showers will continue tonight as weak low pressure slowly approaches from the southwest, with a few rumbles of thunder possible overnight. The chance for showers will generally wind down southwest to northeast overnight into Tuesday morning, though a few showers and isolated thunderstorms may linger in the east tomorrow afternoon.

Ceilings are expected to continue to decrease tonight, as the low pressure system moves into southern Wisconsin. If fog develops over Lake Michigan, some lower visibilities will be possible in the east tonight into early Tuesday, especially north of Milwaukee.

Light southeast winds tonight will become west to northwest by Tuesday morning as the low passes through the region. Winds will likely turn onshore near Lake Michigan by late Tue morning or early afternoon.

DDV

MARINE
Issued 1238 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Light east to southeast winds tonight will become northerly by later Tuesday as low pressure of 29.9 inches crosses the center part of the lake. Fog will be possible at times tonight through Tuesday due to a warm and humid airmass over the relatively cool waters. Shower chances will persist tonight into Tuesday, with a few rumbles of thunder at times.

Breezy southerly winds are expected Wednesday and Thursday ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Multiple rounds of showers and storms are also likely mid-week, with a chance for severe storms. West to southwest winds and dry weather are then expected Friday behind the departing low.

DDV

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.