Tuesday, May11, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Croswell, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 8:43PM Tuesday May 11, 2021 7:17 AM EDT (11:17 UTC) Moonrise 5:17AMMoonset 7:46PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ443 Port Sanilac To Port Huron Mi- 337 Am Edt Tue May 11 2021
Today..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly Sunny with a slight chance of showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north in the late morning and afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots early in the evening becoming light and variable, then becoming west 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ443 Expires:202105111515;;934364 FZUS53 KDTX 110737 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 337 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ443-111515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Croswell, MI
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location: 43.13, -82.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 110950 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 550 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021

AVIATION.

Trough currently draped across the U.P. will drop southeast across lower MI this afternoon. This plus a diurnal component will create a broken cloud deck around 6-8kft. There are some MVFR obs across northern lower this morning that will take a run at mbS and FNT but the already ragged looking clouds will move into an unfavorable area so will just mention a FEW for a couple hours til the trough gets closer. There remains a chance for some light rain this afternoon but best chances will be to the east over the Thumb so will leave out of the TAFs and monitor radar coverage this afternoon for possible amendment. Winds will be northwesterly through the forecast with some gusts this afternoon reach 20 knots. Clouds will thin or clear out again tonight as high pressure starts to build.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* Low for ceiling 5000 feet or less this afternoon and evening.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 313 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021

DISCUSSION .

The upper low now rotating across the northern Great Lakes is already becoming elongated/sheared as it rotates toward the south. This trend will continue through the day as the mid level circulation center moves across the eastern Great Lakes while driving the trailing trough axis across srn Lower Mi. The best mid level height falls associated with this trough will traverse Se Mi between 15Z and 18Z. Moisture quality during this time period will however be extremely lean. An increase in moisture (primarily in the 5-8k ft layer) will arrive during the afternoon and will be along the lead edge of an impressive mid level cold pool (500mb temps down to -32C). The resulting steep mid level lapse rates during the peak in the diurnal heating cycle will trigger brief isolated to scattered afternoon showers, limited to a degree by a very dry sub cloud layer. Mid level moisture will be higher across Lake Huron down into the thumb region this afternoon, offering the potential for slightly better convective cloud depth and thus shower coverage, perhaps even producing some small hail.

The resident airmass across the region remains unseasonably cold. The approach of the upper trough has enhanced the northwest flow early this morning which has been leading to an ongoing advection of even colder air into Se Mi (850mb temps approaching -6C by 12Z). While the gradient is keeping the boundary layer somewhat better mixed this morning, it is adding a bit of a wind chill. A deep afternoon mixed layer will offset the cold air advection and will push afternoon highs into the low to mid 50s. A localized region of mid level negative vorticity advection will slide into Se Mi overnight, leading to an overall clearing trend. Strong high pressure anchored over the Upper Midwest will sustain a northerly gradient over Se Mi. The extent of cold air overhead will still however drive temps back down into the 30s tonight.

A much stronger and broader mid level anticyclone is forecast to expand into the Great Lakes region Wednesday into Thursday. This mid level ridge and associated sfc high will influence the forecast area through the rest of the week and into the weekend, leading to an extended period of dry weather. The core of the cold air that has been impacting the Great Lakes for the last several days will finally advect off to the east. Subtle warm air advection and airmass modification will result in a warming trend. This and a very dry airmass will promote high temps back into the 60s the rest of the week and possibly topping 70 this weekend. The weak gradient and dry ambient airmass will result i large diurnal temp swings, thus keeping some relatively chilly nighttime lows for the next several days.

MARINE .

High pressure over the upper Mississippi valley continues to slowly build over the region today. Despite this, moderate northwest winds will persist through the day as the local pressure gradient remains tightened due to the high to the west and broad low pressure over the Northeast. The gradient relaxes tonight as the center of high pressure drifts over the western Great Lakes and low pressure departs into the Canadian maritimes. Winds will remain on the light side through the remainder of the work week as the center of high pressure settles over the central Great Lakes.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ047>049-053>055- 060>063-068.

Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ069-070-075-076- 082-083.

Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . DRK DISCUSSION . SC MARINE . KDK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 14 mi48 min 37°F 1020.2 hPa
PSCM4 20 mi78 min WNW 7 G 9.9 36°F 1038.9 hPa (+0.6)
AGCM4 35 mi48 min 38°F 48°F1021.2 hPa
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 40 mi78 min NW 9.7 G 14 40°F 39°F1 ft1020.6 hPa (+0.7)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 48 mi78 min WNW 6 G 12 40°F 1022.4 hPa (+1.7)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI15 mi23 minN 010.00 miFair34°F28°F81%1022 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHN

Wind History from PHN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W3NW8NW7W6W10
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W9NW8N6N5N5NE8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmW3W3Calm
1 day agoCalmSE6SE4E5E5E4E9E9E8S5NE8N11
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2 days agoNW9
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NW9N8N6NW5NW7W6N5NE5NE7NE5NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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