Saturday, January18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Croswell, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:54AMSunset 5:25PM Saturday January 18, 2020 3:18 AM EST (08:18 UTC) Moonrise 1:44AMMoonset 12:43PM Illumination 44% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ443 Port Sanilac To Port Huron Mi- 940 Pm Est Fri Jan 17 2020
.gale warning in effect from 4 am est Saturday through late Saturday night...
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots. A chance of light snow this evening, then snow after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Saturday..South winds 20 to 25 knots. Gusts to 30 knots. Snow in the morning, then light rain and snow in the afternoon. Drizzle likely in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales. Cloudy. Light snow and light rain likely in the evening, then light snow showers likely after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..West winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ443 Expires:202001181015;;114313 FZUS53 KDTX 180240 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 940 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ443-181015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Croswell, MI
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location: 43.13, -82.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 180451 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1151 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

AVIATION.

A widespread accumulating snowfall on pace to advance into the SE Michigan airspace overnight. Steadily deteriorating conditions as intervals of moderate to heavy snow maintain IFR to LIFR restrictions throughout the early-mid morning hours. Winds from the southeast near 10 knots during this time. Snow rapidly diminishes in both coverage and intensity just as milder air lifts into the region. This will transition precipitation type to simply areas of drizzle from south to north late morning and early afternoon. Temperatures hovering near the freezing mark may provide a brief window for freezing drizzle at mbS. Winds strengthen from west- southwest during the late afternoon, reaching in excess of 30 knots at times through early Saturday night. Colder air accompanying this wind shift will bring improving ceiling heights, while introducing the potential for lake effect snow showers throughout the Saturday night period.

For DTW . A steady increase in snowfall intensity expected throughout the early morning hours. Peak intensity centered 09z to 13z, with snowfall rates up to 2 inches per hour. Potential exists for some sleet to mix in with the snow around daybreak. The heavy snow will abruptly transition to light rain or drizzle between 14Z and 16Z. A gusty southerly wind during the early-mid afternoon period expected to veer to westerly and increase after 20z-21z. Gusts in excess of 30 knots at times into the evening period, leading to crosswind considerations.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceilings under 5000 feet overnight through Saturday.

* High for precipitation type as all snow through daybreak Saturday. Moderate for some sleet to mix in Saturday morning. High that precip will transition to all light rain/drizzle Saturday afternoon.

* Moderate in exceeding crosswind threshold from 250-270 degrees late Saturday afternoon through early Saturday night.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 830 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

UPDATE .

Coverage and intensity of snowfall emerging as expected just upstream late this evening, responding to the incremental increase in moist isentropic ascent within the background of strengthening mid level southwest flow and corresponding 700-500 mb warm air advection. This process will singularly drive the front end of this event as snowfall expands eastward and across southeast Michigan between 10 pm and 2 am. Recent hi res guidance suggests aggressive deep column saturation will commence during this time, affording a solid lead burst despite the elevated and perhaps somewhat transient nature of this initial forcing. The secondary and more robust window of ascent remains centered 09z-14z, as the underlying frontal slope steepens while drawing the reservoir of deep layer moisture now over southern Illinois into the region. The combination of the outstanding moisture quality and degree of ascent will certainly work to offset the less than stellar microphysics noted in previous discussions. This maintains higher confidence in witnessing a period of higher end snowfall rates on the order of 1 to 2 inches per hour at times, particularly within the M-59 to I-94 corridor. Assessment of recent data suggests the overall forecast handles these expectations well, prompting no meaningful changes to the forecast message with the evening update.

PREV DISCUSSION . Issued at 406 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

DISCUSSION .

Phasing of a southern and northern stream way is presently underway across ArkLaTex as cyclogenesis on the lee side of the Rockies has started to develop what will soon be a rapidly approaching low pressure system, set to track east across the Midwest. Return flow from a departing high pressure system will allow a stream of Gulf moisture to surge ahead of the developing low, producing widespread snowfall across Michigan starting late tonight. Timing remains on track relative to prior forecast issuance with accumulating snow starting shortly before Midnight, lasting through the bulk of the morning hours. Strong isentropic lift in the vicinity of low static stability will maximize ascent and thus snow production during the mid-morning hours, particularly with a strong LLJ/warm nose of air edging in across Michigan. Despite an elevated and increasingly shallow DGZ contributing to potential riming concerns, deep supersaturation w.r.t ice through the majority of the column and strong uvv will aid in the production of higher-end rates, on the order of or in excess of 1 inch per hour for counties located in the Winter Storm Warning. Best time frame to exhibit these higher end snowfall rates will fall mainly between 3 AM - 9 AM. High resolution guidance and in particular the probability-matched mean HREF suite highlights the potential for mesoscale banding within the larger swath of snow tied to strong frontogenetic forcing within the warning area, which may lead to inflated snowfall over a small spatial scale. One caveat with this system is the high riming potential given a relatively isothermal profile between -5 to 0C in the low levels which could reduce snow ratios below 10:1, however, given strong forcing/snow rates and the possibility of mesoscale banding, will continue to advertise snowfall totals on the order of 5-8 inches across the warning area. Flint north into the Tri-Cities will remain in a high end advisory as snow rates will not be as intense and thermal profile will remain cooler relative to the Metro area, producing more of a prolonged snowfall event. Inclusion of warmer air and stripping of moisture in the mid-levels will produce higher chances for rain/wintry mix across the Metro area north towards Flint for the afternoon as post-frontal flow activates Lake Michigan moisture. Strong caa to also increase mixing depths that will allow gusts on the order of 30-40 mph to persist late Saturday afternoon into the the morning hours on Sunday. Given the wet profile of the snow and rising temperatures in the upper-30s, expected no to limited impacts for any blowing snow concerns.

By Sunday morning the low will be well off to the east over New England leaving a trailing trough draped across the northern Great Lakes. Cold air advection in the wake of the initial cold front will excite a period of lake effect snow through the day Sunday. 850mb temps will drop to below -10C by 12Z, cooling further through the day toward -15C with the secondary cold front in the afternoon. Stiff westerly winds will force an initial area of lake effect across lower MI early Sunday. Low level lapse rates will then maximize in the early afternoon with forecast soundings showing mixing depths up to around 5kft. Not the best for really good lake effect this far west off Lake MI but good low level moisture and half the mixed layer residing in the DGZ should help snow production. There is an extra focusing mechanism that bears watching as the secondary cold front drops southward through the Saginaw Valley in the afternoon and Detroit area in the early evening. The low level convergence will likely result in a short 1-2 burst of better snowfall as it passes through the area. Initially model assessment would suggest locations north of I69 would see the best burst of snow as both convergent strength and mixing depths are maximized. Both features weaken slowly through the day as high pressure builds in forcing the inversion toward the ground. All in all, most of SE MI can expect up to a half inch of accumulation during the day Sunday but there is potential for some in the I94 to M59 corridor to exceed 1 inch if the initial eastern moisture surge is stronger, or the Saginaw Valley and northern Thumb to exceed an inch from the burst along the front.

Story for the early part of the week then becomes the cold air as area of Canadian high pressure tracks SE through the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley by Wednesday. Persistent upper level troughing with northwesterly surface flow around the high will keep a thermal trough in place through Tuesday. This will keep high temps down in the 20s and lows in the low teens Monday and Tuesday with wind chills largely in the teens during the day and single digits overnight. Some relief back into the 30s on Wednesday as a longwave ridge folds over lower MI and the surface ridge drifts farther east toward the coast, switching winds to westerly pushing warmer air into the region. Low chances of precipitation through the week with the best chance coming Friday to Saturday as the next low approaches.

MARINE .

Winds will relax through the morning as a strong area of high pressure passes overhead weakening the pressure gradient. Wind through the afternoon will be relatively light (under 20 knots) before ramping up again tonight ahead of the next low pressure system. This next low will deepen while tracking northeast through the central Great Lakes on Saturday bringing a period of heavy wet snow Friday night into Saturday morning. Winds will likely become an issue initially as they increase Friday night ahead of the warm front. Winds gusts will likely reach low-end gales across Lake Huron warranting a Gale Warning across the open waters of the lake. Winds will then switch to strong westerly late Saturday behind a cold front. There is a good probability of reaching gale force gusts across western Lake Erie, Lake St. Clair, and southern Lake Huron also warranting a Gale Warning across those areas.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Winter Storm Warning until noon EST Saturday for MIZ068>070-075-076- 082-083.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Saturday for MIZ047>049- 053>055-060>063.

Lakeshore Flood Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for MIZ063- 070.

Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Saturday for MIZ049- 055-076-083.

Lake Huron . Gale Warning from 4 AM Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for LHZ441>443- 462>464.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for LHZ421-422.

Gale Warning from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Saturday for LHZ361>363.

Lake St Clair . Gale Warning from 4 PM Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . Gale Warning from 4 PM Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for LEZ444.



AVIATION . MR UPDATE . MR DISCUSSION . AM/DRK MARINE . SP

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 13 mi48 min 23°F 1027.8 hPa19°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 14 mi48 min 24°F 1028 hPa
PSCM4 20 mi78 min SE 20 G 25 25°F 1047.4 hPa (-5.4)
AGCM4 35 mi48 min 26°F 35°F1027.4 hPa
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 48 mi38 min ESE 25 28°F 1027.4 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI15 mi23 minESE 10 G 152.00 miLight Snow23°F19°F86%1027.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHN

Wind History from PHN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9NW7NW8NW5NW6NW4N6E4SE5S3S4E4SE6SE6SE8SE6E5E6E5E7E8E5E9E11
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1 day agoW12
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2 days agoNW8CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE6SE7SE5SE7SE5CalmE5SE3CalmCalmW4W4W9W9
G15
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G14

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.