Tuesday, October27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Croswell, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:57AMSunset 6:29PM Tuesday October 27, 2020 11:56 AM EDT (15:56 UTC) Moonrise 4:18PMMoonset 2:50AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ443 Port Sanilac To Port Huron Mi- 955 Am Edt Tue Oct 27 2020
Rest of today..West winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Cloudy. A slight chance of light showers late in the morning, then a chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ443 Expires:202010272115;;918023 FZUS53 KDTX 271355 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 955 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ443-272115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Croswell, MI
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location: 43.13, -82.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 271435 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1035 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

UPDATE.

Ongoing virga is working to slowly saturate the lowest 0-2 km while an elongated pv anomoly, seen on water vapor imagery extending from northern IA, up into the U.P., sags south into Michigan throughout the afternoon. Forcing ahead of the approaching anomoly coupled with weak low-level fgen and better saturation in the low- levels will increase the liklihood of drizzle making it to the surface, and as a result, have upped PoPs to high-end chance from I-69 southward for this afternoon. Expecting minimal impacts from rain activity, as precipitation remains light with only a trace to a several hundredths of an inch of accumulation expected. All drizzle/light rain will end later this evening as pva weakens and dry air filters in from north to south late tonight and overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 549 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

AVIATION .

Westerly flow develops this morning allowing moisture off Lake Michigan to be advected across the state into SE lower. This additional low level moisture combined with renewed upper level support will cause current higher based VFR ceilings to drop through the morning with MVFR potential by early afternoon. A couple isolated to widely scattered light showers/drizzle will be possible focused mainly in the late morning to mid afternoon timeframe from PTK south. While chances of rain remain on the lower side, there has been a steady increasing probability trend in the guidance space so have added a tempo group for light rain. MVFR conditions look to persist through the evening before the jet/upper support move east allowing drier mid-level air to work into the region from the west. Deck will begin to break up west-to-east tonight with general clearing late tonight. For DTW . Increasing low level moisture this morning once westerly flow sets up will drop ceilings to below 5000ft with high MVFR likely this afternoon and evening. A light shower or drizzle will be possible roughly between 16-21Z. Any rain that does occur has the potential to drop ceilings into mid to lower MVFR. Clearing trend will begin late tonight.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceilings at or below 5000ft this morning through evening.

PREV DISCUSSION . Issued at 303 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

DISCUSSION .

Right entrance region will drag across the area today and provide a period of FGEN forcing along broad baroclinic zone established over the region. Will keep precipitation chances low, in the 20 to 30 percent range, given lack of strong FGEN forcing and somewhat dry low levels below 750 mb per 00z DTX sounding. All in all, expect a rather dreary day with overcast skies, patches of light showers at times, and temperatures struggling into the mid 40s for highs. Drier and sunnier conditions are expected on Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure expands east into the region. High temperatures will reach the lower 50s, but west, southwest winds gusting to 20 to 25 mph will temper that a bit.

The upper level low exiting the Four Corners and the eventual absorption of Hurricane Zeta remnants will become the main focus for the remainder of the forecast. Confluent upper level flow within the northern stream still looks to steer a majority of the lift/moisture associated with this system east of the area, especially as notable northern shortwave sweeps through the area and phasing into this southern hybrid system well southeast of the lower Great Lakes. Still, the northern fringe of the moisture shield should impact parts of the forecast area on Thursday with a chance of rain, particularly near the Michigan and Ohio state line. Temperatures will cool back into the 45 to 50 degree range given the increased cloud cover expected with the passage of this system.

Colder air will spill into the region Thursday night into Friday in the wake of this system as a large area of Canadian high pressure settles southeast into the western/central Great Lakes. This will bring a cool day on Friday with highs in the lower to mid 40s with rather frosty mornings both early Friday and early Saturday morning as clear skies and relatively light winds accompany this high. Temperatures will rebound slightly over the weekend and reach the upper 40s to lower 50s. However, a passing shortwave trough will limit any notable warming until early next week as upper ridging eventually expands east into the area behind this weekend wave. In fact, by election day, highs may very well reach well into the 50s.

MARINE .

High pressure will continue building into the Ohio Valley today over of the central Plains. The Great Lakes will reside on the northern periphery of this high through mid week. This positioning will lead to southwesterly winds setting up across the Great Lakes today. Winds will increase tonight into Wednesday due to a tightening gradient ahead of a cold front that will drop into the northern Lakes on Wednesday. Winds will gust to around 30 knots Tuesday night into Wednesday across northern and Central Lake Huron. There is a some potential for a few gust to gales but confidence is low and duration looks to be too short to mention at this time. A small craft advisory has been issued for Saginaw Bay and a portion of the nearshore waters of Lake Huron starting tonight.

HYDROLOGY .

Low pressure will pass south of the region as an upper level storm system ejects from the southern plains and absorbs the remnants of Zeta. While a majority of the moisture from this system will remain south of the area, the northern extent of this large moisture field will bring a chance of rain to parts of Southeast Lower Michigan on Thursday. A quarter of an inch or rain or a bit more may fall south of the I-94 corridor with much lighter amounts to the north. There are no concerns for flooding with this system.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ421-422-441.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

UPDATE . AM AVIATION . KDK DISCUSSION . DG MARINE . DG HYDROLOGY . DG

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 13 mi56 min W 5.1 G 7 41°F 1023.5 hPa (+0.0)32°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 14 mi56 min 42°F 1023.8 hPa (+0.0)
PSCM4 20 mi116 min W 6 G 8 40°F 1043 hPa (+0.7)
AGCM4 35 mi56 min 42°F 54°F1024.7 hPa (+0.0)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 48 mi56 min WNW 5.1 G 6 41°F 1025.7 hPa (+0.0)
45147 - Lake St Clair 49 mi56 min W 5.8 G 7.8 1 ft1024 hPa (+0.2)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI15 mi61 minWNW 310.00 miOvercast41°F32°F70%1025.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHN

Wind History from PHN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4W7NW7NW6NW8W5NW3CalmW4W4CalmW3W4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW4
1 day agoNE6NE8NE6E5N4NE5NE7NE3E8E7NE7NE3N3NE6N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3N4NW5
2 days agoN4NW3N3NW5N6N5N3N3NW4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E5E6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.