Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Croswell, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 8:24PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 1:32 AM EDT (05:32 UTC) Moonrise 10:32PMMoonset 11:26AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LHZ443 Port Sanilac To Port Huron Mi- 1004 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Rest of tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms this evening, then partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the morning, then mostly Sunny late in the morning. Mostly Sunny with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the evening, then diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then becoming north 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late morning and afternoon. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ443 Expires:201908210930;;960222 FZUS53 KDTX 210204 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1004 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ443-210930-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Croswell, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.13, -82.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kdtx 210354
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1154 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019

Aviation
Mid level clouds in wake of MCV enhanced vorticity MAX will fade
overnight with at least some chance for a period stratus fog early
in the morning given moisture from evening rain and light flow. Any
MVFR conditions will lift by mid morning as southwest flow increases
in advance of approaching cold front. This front bring a wind shift
late in the day and perhaps a period of lowerVFR cigs.

For dtw...VFR conditions will start the period, but a period of MVFR
cigs vsbys may occur by daybreak given moist low levels and light
winds. Otherwise, CIGS in around 5kft will be possible Wednesday
before cold FROPA by early evening scours lower moisture out to some
degree.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* moderate confidence in cigs AOB 5kft late tonight Wednesday
morning, low late Wednesday.

Prev discussion
Issued at 337 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019
discussion...

scattered showers and thunderstorms continue oriented southwest to
northeast along an area of subtle isentropic ascent and where
greatest moisture transport vectors have set up across the state. A
couple of moving pieces to note and watch out for heading into the
remainder of the afternoon and evening. To start, SPC rap guidance
and latest hi-res models hold CAPE between 1500 - 2000 j kg mainly
across the tri-cities area into the thumb (tied to increase moisture
surge) and a secondary area of higher CAPE up to 2000 j kg building
in across the southern metro area. Additionally, low-level lapse
rates AOA 7c km in conjunction with supportive tei profiles and
larger dew point depression spread at the surface help support the
idea of strong wind gusts to 40 mph, with a possible isolated
downburst to 60 mph. Hail cannot be completely ruled out as mid-
level lapse rates also hold around 7c km with effective bulk shear
around 25 knots.

Second, an MCV complex currently located over southern lake huron
and northern indiana has maintained a more east to west propagation,
contrary to many cams advertising a northwest to southeast
propagation. This system is also translating faster to the east
relative to the 12z hi-res output. Given that the MCV complex is
moving east into an area of high instability, there is a chance this
system will hold together and produce showers and thunderstorms for
the southern metro region centered between 20-04z. Prior to the
potential arrival of the mcv, amplification of a shortwave will allow
the nose of higher theta-e to fill in across the metro area between
20 - 00z, which will bring the chance to see isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Overall the main message -- isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will remain possible from flint up to the
tri- cities and thumb this afternoon, with isolated to scattered
thunderstorm chances expanding across the metro area during the early
evening onwards. Low-level cap in place may help diminish activity
vs. The competing instability in place but the approaching MCV will
have to continue to be monitored as it travels east towards the cwa.

There will be a marginal risk for severe weather for all of SE mi,
mainly for wind gust concerns.

Pv anomaly (tied to the mcv) is projected to move east of the CWA by
06z Wednesday and will travel into new england by Wednesday
afternoon, leaving SE mi under zonal flow in the mid-levels.

Subsidence on the back side of the anomaly will allow for clearing
of cloud cover overnight, especially for the tri-cities and thumb
with more active subsidence in place. Did not include in this
forecast package due to uncertainty, but given residual
precipitation and moist boundary layer with the subsidence, will
need to watch for fog development overnight.

Upper-level closed low and developing surface low pressure system
will move east across ontario Wednesday into Thursday and will allow
a cold front to pull across SE mi sometime between Wednesday morning
- Wednesday afternoon and will bring the chance for showers
and thunderstorms. Will carry a chance of precipitation through the
passage of the front as atmosphere is relatively dry (1000-500 mb rh
aob 50%) and lack of overall synoptic forcing. Warm and humid
temperatures will be able to hold on through the afternoon with
highs in the 80s, but relief will fill in during the evening and
will lead to overnight lows in the 50s to lower 60s and dp dropping
into the 50s.

Southern periphery of a high pressure system to fill in throughout
Thursday which will start an extended period of dry weather with
lower humidity and temperatures that are below the seasonal norm
with highs in the 70s.

Friday will be cloudy and cooler as upper level trough lingers over
the region. A cold front dropping through the state in advance of
canadian surface high pressure will keep clouds prevalent with
northerly flow but model soundings look very dry minimizing the rain
potential. Cool northerly flow continues Saturday into Sunday as the
surface high, centered to our north over ontario, slides east. An
amplifying mid level ridge axis will then pass over on Sunday
allowing southern return flow back into the state. After a few days
where highs only reach in the 70s, temps on Sunday should finally
rise back into the low 80s which is normal for late august. Next
shot for showers will hold off til around Monday when a strong mid
level wave and associate surface low lift through the northern
lakes. Increasing warm air advection ahead of the front will push
temperatures into the mid 80s Monday.

Marine...

light southerly winds this evening will give way to northwest winds
tomorrow as a cold front drops south through the central great
lakes. A push of much cooler air over lake huron Wednesday evening
will result in winds increasing to 20 to 30 knots, with
brief slightly higher gusts possible over northern lake huron. Winds
will gradually diminish on Thursday into Friday as high pressure
nudges into the region from the northwest.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Am drk
marine... ... .Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 13 mi45 min N 1 G 2.9 71°F 1012.8 hPa68°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 14 mi45 min 72°F 1012.8 hPa
PSCM4 20 mi33 min WSW 7 G 9.9 71°F 1030.8 hPa (-0.4)
AGCM4 35 mi45 min 70°F 74°F1013.3 hPa
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 40 mi93 min S 3.9 G 3.9 71°F 72°F1 ft1012.4 hPa (+0.2)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 48 mi33 min WSW 5.1 G 8 72°F 1013.9 hPa (-0.3)
45147 - Lake St Clair 49 mi33 min Calm 75°F 75°F1 ft1012.6 hPa (-1.2)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
Last
24hr
SW5
SW4
SW6
G9
SW6
G9
SW6
S2
SW3
SE5
S4
SW5
G10
S8
G12
S6
G12
SW8
G13
S12
G16
S10
G14
S10
G14
SW7
G13
S7
G10
S6
S8
SW8
G21
SE6
S6
N4
1 day
ago
SW7
G10
W7
G10
W5
SW5
W5
W5
W4
G9
NW4
G10
NW7
NE6
NE7
NE8
E7
NE9
NE11
E7
NE3
NE6
N5
NE3
--
SW3
S2
S4
2 days
ago
SW4
SW5
SW6
S6
S6
G9
S8
S8
G11
SW11
G15
SW8
G17
SW7
G14
SW11
G18
S8
G11
S13
G18
S10
G17
S7
G12
SW5
G9
SW9
G15
SW9
G13
SW12
SW7
G11
SW9
G13

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KPHN

Wind History from PHN (wind in knots)
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
-12
PM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
Last 24hrS6S6SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmS6S8SW7
G15
S9SW9S8
1 day agoS7S8S7W4S4S8SW4SW5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW7N4NW4CalmCalmW3CalmSW3
2 days ago--------CalmCalmSW4W3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmS3S5S10S9S10S4SE10

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (1,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.