Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Croswell, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:48AMSunset 4:56PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 5:22 PM EST (22:22 UTC) Moonrise 4:08PMMoonset 5:58AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ443 Port Sanilac To Port Huron Mi- 353 Pm Est Tue Dec 10 2019
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy in the evening becoming partly cloudy. A slight chance of light snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots. Partly cloudy in the morning becoming mostly Sunny. A slight chance of light snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ443 Expires:201912110415;;156213 FZUS53 KDTX 102053 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 353 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ443-110415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Croswell, MI
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location: 43.13, -82.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 102031 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 331 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

DISCUSSION. Scattered lake effect snow showers/flurries will continue to make inroads into southeast lower, mainly along and north of I94, on a cold westerly flow through the rest of this afternoon and evening. Most activity will be light but there maybe a few moderate snow showers that could produce a tenth or two of accumulation before sunset. Winds will gradually back to the southwest during the night which will shift any snow shower activity to mainly along and north of the M59 corridor. Increasing influx of drier air will result in a decrease in coverage and intensity of lake effect snow showers. Southwest flow trajectory will also keep lake effect clouds north of the Detroit area. Winds will remain up and gusty keeping lows cold but more uniformed in the mid to upper teens.

A surface trough marking another reenforcement of arctic air will push through Wednesday morning. Though the airmass will be even drier, there will be enough convergence and low level instability to squeeze out some flurry action. Clouds cover will gradually decrease throughout the afternoon as highs barely recover to the upper teens north to upper 20s south.

Wednesday night skies will clear and winds will go light as high pressure center slides through. Lows will depend on how quick mid and high level clouds move in ahead of next system. Guidance suggesting lows will bottom out in the lower teens before clouds advect in after midnight, but could easily crater into the single digits if skies remain clearer longer.

Southerly flow around departing high pressure and ahead of weak surface and mid level wave passing across the northern lakes will help temperatures back into the 30s. This system will bring mainly cloudy skies for the area with a slight chance of light snow showers or flurries across the Saginaw Valley and Thumb. Friday will remain dry with readings slightly above normal Friday as overall flow remains southerly ahead of a weekend system.

The weekend outlook continues to feature a powerful upper level jet from the Pacific initially forcing zonal flow across U.S. by Friday which quickly buckles by Saturday. Extended models offer loosely similar solutions of broad low pressure over the Ohio valley with relatively mild air over the Great Lakes. This system is subject to further adjustments due to timing of upper level amplification during late week but for now presents a chance of rain and snow showers in our area Saturday into Sunday.

MARINE.

A secondary cold front pushes through the lakes this evening and tonight, bringing a renewed surge of arctic air that will increase instability over the water and stronger southwesterly winds that gradually veer westerly through the day Wednesday. A Gale Warning has been issued for northern Lake Huron where the increased fetch and better cold advection will bring the best chance for marginal gales late Wednesday morning and afternoon. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Lake Huron nearshore marine areas from Saginaw Bay to Port Sanilac. Potential for snow squalls remains for Lake Huron through tonight into Wednesday with rapidly reduced visibility possible in the heaviest activity. Freezing spray may also become a concern on Wednesday for Lake Huron. Conditions then quiet down on Wednesday night as surface ridging passes over the region, but this relief will be short-lived as another low pressure system lifts into the Great Lakes on Thursday and brings an increase in southerly flow.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1209 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

AVIATION .

Steep low level lapse rates this afternoon should result in isolated- scattered snow shower activity with lingering cold cyclonic flow. Coverage looks to be localized however, with short lived activity at any given location, otherwise mostly flurries around as the drier air continues to work into the Great Lakes Region. For this evening, surface high building into the Ohio Valley, with surface ridge extending into Wayne county, supporting skies becoming mostly clear for the southern TAF sites through the night, as the low level flow becomes more southwest. Lake Michigan moisture plume will line up over Flint/Saginaw however, and probably extending south into Pontiac. A cloud deck around 3000 feet is expected, and periods of flurries/snow showers are also likely. Renewed surge of cold air early tomorrow morning, with winds backing around to the west. Gusts of 25 knots expected with the good/deep boundary layer mixing during Wednesday, with 2500-4000 ft cigs filling in back across southern TAF Sites.

For DTW . Mainly light snow shower/flurry activity around this afternoon producing a dusting of snow, but a heavier/brief snow shower is possible late in the day, which could lead to accumulation approaching half an inch. Surface ridge then builds in early this evening, shifting any snow shower/flurry activity north.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High in ceilings below 5000 feet through 0z Wednesday, then low.

* High in precip being snow.

* Medium confidence in westerly cross wind aoa 25 knots tomorrow.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ421-422-441- 442.

Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for LHZ361-362.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

DISCUSSION . DRC MARINE . TF AVIATION . SF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 13 mi52 min W 8 G 16 28°F 1017.7 hPa12°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 14 mi52 min 29°F 1017.7 hPa
PSCM4 20 mi82 min NNW 7 G 9.9 26°F 1035.6 hPa (+2.8)
AGCM4 35 mi52 min 28°F 41°F1018.5 hPa
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 48 mi82 min W 13 G 17 29°F 1019 hPa (+2.4)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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SW9
G12
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G16
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G20
SW9
G15
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G24
W17
G31
W11
G21
W9
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G20
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G23
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1 day
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SW9
G15
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G17
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G16
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G13
SW10
G15
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G12
SW8
G12
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G13
S6
G11
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G14
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G12
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G12
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G17
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G15
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G21
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G15
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G13
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SW7
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G11
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G12
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G14
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G11
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G16
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G15
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G19
SW13
G23
SW15
G22
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G23
S9
G17
SW11
G18
S10
G21
SW15
G21

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI15 mi27 minW 610.00 miOvercast28°F14°F55%1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHN

Wind History from PHN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5S6S7SW6SW5SW8
G17
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W5W4W7NW7W3NW5NW9
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1 day agoS10S10
G14
S7S10S9S8S7S9S6S7S7S6S6S6S5S7S10S10S10
G15
S7S12
G16
S11
G15
SW9S6
2 days agoS4S4S7S5S5S5S5S6S7S7S9
G15
S11
G18
S11
G14
S11
G14
S9S9S10S12
G18
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G22
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S9S11S12
G20
S13

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.