Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Syracuse, NY
December 10, 2023 2:40 AM EST (07:40 UTC)
Sunrise 7:23AM Sunset 4:31PM Moonrise 4:55AM Moonset 2:38PM
LOZ044 Expires:202312101015;;201977 Fzus51 Kbuf 100236 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 936 pm est Sat dec 9 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-101015- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 936 pm est Sat dec 9 2023
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely late this evening, then rain after midnight. A chance of showers late. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Rain in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west to 30 knots. Snow with rain showers likely in the morning, then rain and snow showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 8 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Monday night..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 7 to 11 feet subsiding to 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A chance of rain showers Tuesday night. Waves 4 to 7 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 936 pm est Sat dec 9 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-101015- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 936 pm est Sat dec 9 2023
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely late this evening, then rain after midnight. A chance of showers late. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Rain in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west to 30 knots. Snow with rain showers likely in the morning, then rain and snow showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 8 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Monday night..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 7 to 11 feet subsiding to 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A chance of rain showers Tuesday night. Waves 4 to 7 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.
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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBGM 100550 AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1250 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
SYNOPSIS
Much warmer temperatures are expected across the region into Sunday. Dry weather is expected into this evening before rain returns to the region late tonight. Sunday and Sunday night will see a strong storm bring heavy rain. Rain transitions to snow Sunday night, ending Monday as a deepening low pressure moves up the east coast.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Some elevated instability has already moved into portions of the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier, so have added some thunder to the forecast heading into the overnight hours for these areas.
915 PM Update...
No major changes to the near-term update. Blended current observations into the forecast. Near-term forecast remains on track.
640 PM Update...
No major changes for the near-term update. Rain will push in from the west through the night tonight, and cover the forecast area by morning. Near-term forecast remains on track through Sunday night.
330 PM Update
Quiet weather continues this evening with mild temperatures and increasing clouds. Clouds continue to overspread the area into the overnight hours as southerly winds also increase out ahead of the incoming storm system. Expect south winds 15 to 30 mph with locally higher gusts during the predawn hours of Sunday; especially over the hilltops. These clouds and southerly winds will keep it warm tonight, with lows in the 40s to near 50 for most of the area.
Our attention then turns to a significant storm system that will bring a multitude of impacts to the area. Rain develops and overspreads the entire forecast area Sunday morning. The rain could be heavy at times, and a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out over NE PA and the Catskills. The heaviest rainfall rates are again expected from about Binghamton south and east into NE PA/Catskills. The latest guidance has trended eastward with the higher rainfall and QPF amounts with this system, and its even possible the Finger Lakes see a break from the steady rain Sunday afternoon and early evening as the initial area of rain drifts east. Rainfall totals through about 7 PM Sunday look to range from only a quarter inch over the Finger Lakes, with around 1 inch over NE PA and the Catskills. These higher end totals may begin to cause some minor, localized hydro issue (such as ponding of water in low lying areas, and increased runoff) as we head into the evening hours. Therefore, the flood watch remains in effect for east-central NY down across most of NE PA (except Bradford county)...until 1 PM Monday. Several of the headwater and mainstem river points are forecast to reach action stage, with the West Branch Delaware at Walton still forecast to reach minor flood stage. If rainfall amounts end up higher than currently forecast additional locations could have more issues...so definitely something to monitor closely.
Heading into Sunday evening, the cold front is now progged to move in faster, with winds shifting to the northwest. The changeover from rain to wet snow has trended slightly faster with this update. It is now looking to changeover between about 8 to 11 PM west of I-81...higher elevations first. Then the changeover is forecast to occur between 9pm to 12am east of I-81...again higher elevations first. The last places to changeover, not until the predawn hours will be the Wyoming Valley, Southern Sullivan county and along the Delaware river.
The latest guidance has shifted a bit east with the higher snowfall potential. The steadiest snow looks to be along and east of I-81 during the overnight hours Sunday through daybreak Monday, or mid/late morning over the Catskills as a 1000mb surface low near NYC tracks northeast to near Boston and deepens to around 995mb. Went below the NBM guidance for temperatures as strong cold air advection from the west (-7C at 850mb) and the strengthening low should allow for more efficient cooling.
Therefore, expecting temperatures to fall into the low to mid-30s by midnight, then upper 20s to lower 30s before daybreak. The initial heavy wet snow, with low SLRs of 4-8:1 will quickly increase, to 8-12:1 before daybreak, with the snow becoming more powdery and much more efficiently accumulating.
SLRs remain high between 10-15:1 during the day on Monday with colder air aloft moving in. Again, went below NBM for temperatures on Monday, as I think we'll struggle to get above freezing in most locations, then temperatures will begin to fall by late afternoon.
Based on both the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance, the highest potential to see 4-8"+ of wet snowfall will be from Oneida county south into Madison, Otsego, Delaware and Chenango county. The NBM and WPC ensembles are showing greater than 50% chance for exceeding warning criteria in these areas...especially over the higher elevations. Therefore, decided to issue a Winter Storm Watch for these zones...starting Sunday evening through Monday afternoon...except through Monday evening for Madison and Oneida counties, where some lake effect snow bands and blowing snow will linger longer. The exact track and strength of the coastal low remain uncertain at this time, and that will have large implications on how much snowfall and where. These above counties are where the confidence was highest for an impactful snowfall event. Will be closely monitoring the latest trends in the guidance tonight to see if any additional winter headlines may be needed.
On Monday, the coastal low will be rapidly deepening across eastern New England...with much colder air aloft and at the surface advecting into our region on the back side of the low, under the mid/upper level trough. The steady snow shield looks to lift north and east out of the Catskills and Mohawk Valley by mid to late morning, but bands of lake effect snow showers will develop behind this on a 300-310 degree flow off of Lake Ontario and the Finger Lakes. The other story on Monday will be strong, gusty northwest winds up to 40 mph. For the higher elevations these winds, combined with fresh snow and temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s will likely produce areas of blowing and drifting snow. Otherwise, for the southern tier of NY and northeast PA it should be mainly dry by late Monday morning and afternoon with just isolated snow showers around. It will still be windy and cold areawide, with wind chills in the upper 10s to 20s during the day.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
330 PM FORECAST...
Lake effect snow showers are expected to continue across areas north of the Southern Tier Monday night.
High pressure centered south of the region will continue the westerly flow across Lake Erie and Ontario as the main storm system lifts to the NE. 850mb temps between -11 to -12C will provide enough of a air/water temp difference to generate snow showers from the Finger Lakes to Oneida county. A weak, diffuse band of snow may set up across northern Onondaga, Madison and Oneida county, dropping an additional 1-3 in of snow. Less than an inch of snow is expected across the Finger Lakes into the Northern Catskills. As the night progresses, winds will slowly shift from westerly to southwesterly as the ridge slides eastward. This will push snow chances north into northern Oneida by the late overnight hours, and completely north of the area by mid- morning Tuesday.
High pressure east of the area will bring WAA on Tuesday, allowing temperatures to climb into the upper 30s to low 40s. This warmth will be short lived as a weak trough will dig into the area Tuesday night. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 20s but highs on Wednesday will only climb into the low to mid 30s. The trough will be somewhat moisture starved but NW flow behind the initial front will tap into lake moisture, and low level lapse rates are steep enough to allow for a chance for some isolated squally snow showers possible across areas north of the Southern Tier Wednesday morning into the afternoon.
Cold air will settle in Wednesday night, with lows falling into the upper teens to mid 20s. High pressure sliding in from the west will put an end to the snow showers as the night progresses, with northern Oneida hanging on to snow chances the longest.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
330 PM FORECAST...
A broad ridging pattern will persist through the period with dry conditions expected. Temperatures will warm under the ridge as a warm airmass is advected in from the west. Seasonable temperatures Thursday will reach the mid to upper 40s by Friday.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
1250 PM Update...
VFR conditions will continue until the early morning hours Sunday when a storm system will begin impacting the region.
Scattered showers and MVFR ceilings will arrive between 09Z and 12Z, with conditions deteriorating to IFR by mid-morning. BGM will have the highest probability of seeing LIFR conditions at times as steady moderate rain moves into the area. The heaviest rainfall will be east of most terminals, and given prevailing winds, this should keep ELM mainly in the Fuel Alt/MVFR range for ceilings and visibility.
A strong low level jet tonight will bring 35-45kts of LLWS up to FL020 across the region starting this evening and lasting until sunrise.
Outlook...
Late Sunday night...IFR or lower. Rain changing to snow. Strong gusty winds.
Monday...Restrictions likely with lingering snow showers and strong gusty NW winds.
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR-MVFR depending on lake effect showers.
Thursday...Mainly VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Flood Watch from this afternoon through Monday afternoon for PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Monday evening for NYZ009-036-037.
Flood Watch from this afternoon through Monday afternoon for NYZ045-046-056-057-062.
Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Monday afternoon for NYZ045-046-057.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1250 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023
SYNOPSIS
Much warmer temperatures are expected across the region into Sunday. Dry weather is expected into this evening before rain returns to the region late tonight. Sunday and Sunday night will see a strong storm bring heavy rain. Rain transitions to snow Sunday night, ending Monday as a deepening low pressure moves up the east coast.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Some elevated instability has already moved into portions of the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier, so have added some thunder to the forecast heading into the overnight hours for these areas.
915 PM Update...
No major changes to the near-term update. Blended current observations into the forecast. Near-term forecast remains on track.
640 PM Update...
No major changes for the near-term update. Rain will push in from the west through the night tonight, and cover the forecast area by morning. Near-term forecast remains on track through Sunday night.
330 PM Update
Quiet weather continues this evening with mild temperatures and increasing clouds. Clouds continue to overspread the area into the overnight hours as southerly winds also increase out ahead of the incoming storm system. Expect south winds 15 to 30 mph with locally higher gusts during the predawn hours of Sunday; especially over the hilltops. These clouds and southerly winds will keep it warm tonight, with lows in the 40s to near 50 for most of the area.
Our attention then turns to a significant storm system that will bring a multitude of impacts to the area. Rain develops and overspreads the entire forecast area Sunday morning. The rain could be heavy at times, and a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out over NE PA and the Catskills. The heaviest rainfall rates are again expected from about Binghamton south and east into NE PA/Catskills. The latest guidance has trended eastward with the higher rainfall and QPF amounts with this system, and its even possible the Finger Lakes see a break from the steady rain Sunday afternoon and early evening as the initial area of rain drifts east. Rainfall totals through about 7 PM Sunday look to range from only a quarter inch over the Finger Lakes, with around 1 inch over NE PA and the Catskills. These higher end totals may begin to cause some minor, localized hydro issue (such as ponding of water in low lying areas, and increased runoff) as we head into the evening hours. Therefore, the flood watch remains in effect for east-central NY down across most of NE PA (except Bradford county)...until 1 PM Monday. Several of the headwater and mainstem river points are forecast to reach action stage, with the West Branch Delaware at Walton still forecast to reach minor flood stage. If rainfall amounts end up higher than currently forecast additional locations could have more issues...so definitely something to monitor closely.
Heading into Sunday evening, the cold front is now progged to move in faster, with winds shifting to the northwest. The changeover from rain to wet snow has trended slightly faster with this update. It is now looking to changeover between about 8 to 11 PM west of I-81...higher elevations first. Then the changeover is forecast to occur between 9pm to 12am east of I-81...again higher elevations first. The last places to changeover, not until the predawn hours will be the Wyoming Valley, Southern Sullivan county and along the Delaware river.
The latest guidance has shifted a bit east with the higher snowfall potential. The steadiest snow looks to be along and east of I-81 during the overnight hours Sunday through daybreak Monday, or mid/late morning over the Catskills as a 1000mb surface low near NYC tracks northeast to near Boston and deepens to around 995mb. Went below the NBM guidance for temperatures as strong cold air advection from the west (-7C at 850mb) and the strengthening low should allow for more efficient cooling.
Therefore, expecting temperatures to fall into the low to mid-30s by midnight, then upper 20s to lower 30s before daybreak. The initial heavy wet snow, with low SLRs of 4-8:1 will quickly increase, to 8-12:1 before daybreak, with the snow becoming more powdery and much more efficiently accumulating.
SLRs remain high between 10-15:1 during the day on Monday with colder air aloft moving in. Again, went below NBM for temperatures on Monday, as I think we'll struggle to get above freezing in most locations, then temperatures will begin to fall by late afternoon.
Based on both the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance, the highest potential to see 4-8"+ of wet snowfall will be from Oneida county south into Madison, Otsego, Delaware and Chenango county. The NBM and WPC ensembles are showing greater than 50% chance for exceeding warning criteria in these areas...especially over the higher elevations. Therefore, decided to issue a Winter Storm Watch for these zones...starting Sunday evening through Monday afternoon...except through Monday evening for Madison and Oneida counties, where some lake effect snow bands and blowing snow will linger longer. The exact track and strength of the coastal low remain uncertain at this time, and that will have large implications on how much snowfall and where. These above counties are where the confidence was highest for an impactful snowfall event. Will be closely monitoring the latest trends in the guidance tonight to see if any additional winter headlines may be needed.
On Monday, the coastal low will be rapidly deepening across eastern New England...with much colder air aloft and at the surface advecting into our region on the back side of the low, under the mid/upper level trough. The steady snow shield looks to lift north and east out of the Catskills and Mohawk Valley by mid to late morning, but bands of lake effect snow showers will develop behind this on a 300-310 degree flow off of Lake Ontario and the Finger Lakes. The other story on Monday will be strong, gusty northwest winds up to 40 mph. For the higher elevations these winds, combined with fresh snow and temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s will likely produce areas of blowing and drifting snow. Otherwise, for the southern tier of NY and northeast PA it should be mainly dry by late Monday morning and afternoon with just isolated snow showers around. It will still be windy and cold areawide, with wind chills in the upper 10s to 20s during the day.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
330 PM FORECAST...
Lake effect snow showers are expected to continue across areas north of the Southern Tier Monday night.
High pressure centered south of the region will continue the westerly flow across Lake Erie and Ontario as the main storm system lifts to the NE. 850mb temps between -11 to -12C will provide enough of a air/water temp difference to generate snow showers from the Finger Lakes to Oneida county. A weak, diffuse band of snow may set up across northern Onondaga, Madison and Oneida county, dropping an additional 1-3 in of snow. Less than an inch of snow is expected across the Finger Lakes into the Northern Catskills. As the night progresses, winds will slowly shift from westerly to southwesterly as the ridge slides eastward. This will push snow chances north into northern Oneida by the late overnight hours, and completely north of the area by mid- morning Tuesday.
High pressure east of the area will bring WAA on Tuesday, allowing temperatures to climb into the upper 30s to low 40s. This warmth will be short lived as a weak trough will dig into the area Tuesday night. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 20s but highs on Wednesday will only climb into the low to mid 30s. The trough will be somewhat moisture starved but NW flow behind the initial front will tap into lake moisture, and low level lapse rates are steep enough to allow for a chance for some isolated squally snow showers possible across areas north of the Southern Tier Wednesday morning into the afternoon.
Cold air will settle in Wednesday night, with lows falling into the upper teens to mid 20s. High pressure sliding in from the west will put an end to the snow showers as the night progresses, with northern Oneida hanging on to snow chances the longest.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
330 PM FORECAST...
A broad ridging pattern will persist through the period with dry conditions expected. Temperatures will warm under the ridge as a warm airmass is advected in from the west. Seasonable temperatures Thursday will reach the mid to upper 40s by Friday.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
1250 PM Update...
VFR conditions will continue until the early morning hours Sunday when a storm system will begin impacting the region.
Scattered showers and MVFR ceilings will arrive between 09Z and 12Z, with conditions deteriorating to IFR by mid-morning. BGM will have the highest probability of seeing LIFR conditions at times as steady moderate rain moves into the area. The heaviest rainfall will be east of most terminals, and given prevailing winds, this should keep ELM mainly in the Fuel Alt/MVFR range for ceilings and visibility.
A strong low level jet tonight will bring 35-45kts of LLWS up to FL020 across the region starting this evening and lasting until sunrise.
Outlook...
Late Sunday night...IFR or lower. Rain changing to snow. Strong gusty winds.
Monday...Restrictions likely with lingering snow showers and strong gusty NW winds.
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR-MVFR depending on lake effect showers.
Thursday...Mainly VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Flood Watch from this afternoon through Monday afternoon for PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Monday evening for NYZ009-036-037.
Flood Watch from this afternoon through Monday afternoon for NYZ045-046-056-057-062.
Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Monday afternoon for NYZ045-046-057.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY | 31 mi | 53 min | SSE 14G | 50°F | 29.76 | 42°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KSYR SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL,NY | 2 sm | 46 min | SE 09 | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 52°F | 39°F | 62% | 29.83 |
| KFZY OSWEGO COUNTY,NY | 20 sm | 46 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 48°F | 43°F | 81% | 29.82 |
Wind History from SYR
(wind in knots)
Montague, NY,
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