Wednesday, October28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Syracuse, NY

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 6:03PM Wednesday October 28, 2020 1:07 AM EDT (05:07 UTC) Moonrise 4:13PMMoonset 3:25AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202010280315;;940737 Fzus51 Kbuf 272355 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 755 Pm Edt Tue Oct 27 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-280315- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 755 Pm Edt Tue Oct 27 2020
Tonight..West winds around 10 knots becoming southwest. Scattered showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain likely. Waves building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Friday..Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Waves building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 54 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Syracuse, NY
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location: 43.14, -76.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 272311 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 711 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. Light rain will linger through the night. Dry and milder conditions occur most of Wednesday. A strong low pressure system causes rain to develop Thursday, which may mix with or change to wet snow Thursday night into Friday as colder air returns. Snow accumulations will be possible, especially higher terrain.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. 711 pm update . Area of rain moving in from the w/nw this evening, and will be re-enforced by a secondary batch of WAA rain from the southwest late tonight and Wed morning. A couple tenths of an inch in central NY this evening, then a quarter inch or less in ne PA late tonight. Conditions improve rapidly Wed morning with maybe some sun by the afternoon. Bulk of the forecast remains on track and unchanged.

325 PM Update . Mostly cloudy cool afternoon in progress; highs ranging from mid 40s to around 50 in Central NY and upper 40s-mid 50s in Northeast PA. Though quiet at the moment, a pair of shortwaves embedded within brisk zonal upper flow will zip through; one late afternoon-evening and then another overnight into first thing Wednesday. While light, rain chances have been increased considerably for late tonight with that second wave especially Twin Tiers-Catskills southward, before ridging is able to dry things out mid morning through afternoon Wednesday.

With the extra clouds from the pair of shortwaves, temperatures will only fall to upper 30s-mid 40s for lows tonight, followed by highs of upper 40s-upper 50s Wednesday with partial sunshine skewed to mainly the afternoon hours.

For Wednesday night, clouds move back in and thicken ahead of our next system. Towards dawn, the first of the incoming rain may sneak across Northeast PA; perhaps to the NY-PA border counties. Lows Wednesday night will be mid 30s to mid 40s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Low pressure will develop in the southern Plains by Thursday, drawing in a tropical storm Zeta from the gulf. Plenty of moisture will be lifted northward along a front south of our region. This will result in the development of rain to our southwest. Rain will overspread the region during the day Thursday. Rain may be moderate to heavy for short durations with ensemble means from various models showing an inch or less of rain in the Southern Tier of NY northward and up to two inches of rain in NE PA. This amount of rainfall will largely be welcome with portions of our region still in a drought. However, some poor drainage flooding with leaves still on the roads can not be ruled out. The highest chances for any poor drainage flooding look to be across the Poconos and Wyoming valley regions.

At the same time high pressure tries to nose in from Canada likely setting up a tight zone between rain and no rain Thursday into Friday as the low draws closer. The current cutoff between a fairly decent rainfall an inch or so and little rain will likely be much sharper than what we have indicated.

High pressure also continues to be the likely source for a fairly cold shot of air into the region. Temperatures slowly drop Thursday night. Current expectations continue that temperatures will get cold enough for rain to change to snow across most of the region with timing elevation dependent. We may see some breaks in the precipitation Thursday evening with one low pressure system heading off the east coast with the upper level energy coming through Friday morning.

The track has shifted southward today on the various models and ensembles away from a more phased, stronger low pressure system As a result, the snowfall amounts have fallen across the NY Thruway area but increased in the higher elevations in Steuben county working eastward to around Tully and portions of the Catskills. These locations should have a faster changeover to snow. The southward nudge of the track allows for a faster than previously forecasted change to snow in NE PA and some accumulations this way as well.

In terms of amounts, ratios start off fairly low (5:1) due to a warm wet ground. However, signals are increasingly showing a deformation band of snow forming as the upper level energy departs Friday morning. 600-800 mb FGEN forcing does show the potential for a few hours of moderate to perhaps heavy snow with timing ranging from 4 to 10 am of this snowfall. This is currently modeled to track from the Southern Tier eastward into NE PA and the Catskills. This is when a majority of the snow should accumulate. Both omega and the -10/20C snow growth regions look favorable for the burst of snow as well. With the higher rates ratios should bump higher as the higher rates overcome a very warm ground. Snow should end by late morning with more in the way of drizzle/ freezing drizzle or snow showers leftover through the remainder of the day.

Continued to trend temperatures lower than blended model guidance. Particularly on Friday with the steadier precipitation early and cold air advection. Temperatures will be in the 30's and 40's throughout this period.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. The main story for Friday night will be the cold temperatures. As high pressure begins to take control, skies will clear and winds will diminish. With a very cold airmass in place, lows will likely at least get down to the 20s, with some areas getting into the teens. Continued to lean slightly colder than blended model guidance given the increasing possibility of some snow cover.

High pressure will bring plenty of sunshine for Saturday. However with the chilly airmass still in place, highs will likely only be topping out in the 40s for the majority of the area. A cold front will then approach the area on Sunday, bringing a chance of rain showers, especially during the afternoon and in Central NY. Highs Sunday will likely be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. As temperatures fall into the 30s Sunday night, any lingering showers may mix with or change over to snow showers. Lake effect rain and snow showers are then possible late Sunday night into Monday morning. It is too early to determine what the actual wind direction will be for which locations see some lake effect. Lingered clouds and kept temperatures cooler than blended model guidance Monday given typical biases. Temperatures will struggle to reach 40 for some locations Monday.

Possibly another weak front or clipper system Tuesday, used blended model guidance given model differences here.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Two batches of rain will move through tonight along with periods of IFR to fuel alternate req ceilings and MVFR vsbys. KELM, KBGM and KAVP have the highest potential for IFR cigs. Ceilings will improve after dawn Wednesday north to south, as a ridge of high pressure moves into the region. MVFR cigs and eventually VFR will arrive late morning and during the afternoon. Winds will be northwest or variable mostly under 5 knots through tonight, then becoming light southwest on Wednesday.

Outlook .

Wednesday night . Mainly VFR courtesy of high pressure passing by just to our south, dominating our weather.

Thursday . Restrictions expected to develop as rain moves in from southwest to northeast from low pressure system.

Thursday night through Friday . Back end of system includes rain mixing with/changing to wet snow; associated restrictions.

Friday night through Saturday night . Mainly VFR with high pressure.

Sunday . Frontal system moves in with a good chance of showers and possible restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . MDP NEAR TERM . BJT/MDP SHORT TERM . MWG LONG TERM . BJG/MWG AVIATION . BJT/MDP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 31 mi49 min S 7 G 9.9 42°F 1019.4 hPa38°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 79 mi67 min SW 6 G 8 44°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 80 mi49 min 42°F 1018.7 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY1 mi73 minSSW 310.00 miOvercast45°F39°F83%1020.1 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY21 mi73 minSSW 510.00 miOvercast42°F37°F85%1020.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5N7NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4N6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmS3S3S3S3SW7SW3SW3
1 day agoE6E10E10E10E9E7E9E6E9E5E6E7E6E4NW3W6W6W5W4W6NW8W4W6NW5
2 days agoCalmN4NE4CalmN5N4N3CalmCalmNE4W35NE54E6NE4N3N3N5E4E4E5E8E8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.