Sunday, July12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Syracuse, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:35AMSunset 8:45PM Sunday July 12, 2020 2:20 PM EDT (18:20 UTC) Moonrise 11:56PMMoonset 12:02PM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202007122115;;732407 Fzus51 Kbuf 121355 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 955 Am Edt Sun Jul 12 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-122115- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 955 Am Edt Sun Jul 12 2020
This afternoon..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 10 knots or less increasing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers Wednesday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west less than 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less. The water temperature off rochester is 65 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Syracuse, NY
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location: 43.14, -76.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 121746 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 146 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

SYNOPSIS. Drier air relative to the past few days will make for a more pleasant day across central NY and NE PA into this afternoon. A weak trough will move toward NY and PA late this afternoon and evening with isolated to scattered thunderstorms that last into the overnight. Monday and Monday Night will remain unsettled as an upper level low drops southeast to northern NY. This will brings the chance for additional showers and thunderstorms. As this upper low departs Tuesday, lingering showers will persist from the Catskills to north central NY. Wednesday will see improving conditions as high pressure builds across the northeast U.S with warm summery weather returning.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. 945 AM Update . Just made a few minor tweaks to temps, POPs and winds for this late morning update. Used a CAMs model blend for hourly POPs for this afternoon which trended POPs a little later. Well defined short wave will arrive late afternoon/early evening and will be the main trigger for scattered showers and storms mainly across south central NY and northeast PA. This afternoon insolation will lead to modest instability up to 500 to 1000 J/kg but without a focusing mechanism and drier air aloft we see parcels and cumulus growth entraining out so have limited POPs until influence of short wave arrives later. Previous forecast discussion below .

Previous Discussion . The surface low that brought the rain last night will be clearing the area early this morning. Low clouds and rain showers across northern Oneida continue but look to clear by late morning. Temperatures and dew points will be a few degrees cooler then the past few days, with highs in in the upper 70s to low 80s and dew points in the low 60s.

Recent rainfall will help with dew point recovery today and as a result, some modest instability of around 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE develops. Locations that saw the most rainfall over the last few days will have the best recoveries and thus the greatest instability. A mid level shortwave moves in this afternoon, eroding the cap and triggering showers and thunderstorms. The greatest coverage looks to be over NE PA and across the NY thruway.

The 500 mb vort max associated with the shortwave swings through central NY in the overnight hours, providing lift and keeping the showers and thunderstorms going. Coverage will be spotty and most locations will be staying dry.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. 430 AM Update . The pattern remains unsettled, especially Monday.

Though there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday, things will be a bit complicated for the details. One upper wave will begin the day over the area and then exit towards midday; then a deeper one will dig in from the west late afternoon-early evening. In between, during peak heating hours, there will be a lot of dry air in the column yet at least some instability. Thunder chances will be better east of Interstate 81, yet even there Convective Available Potential Energy will be mainly less than 1000 J/kg. Overall convection potential and coverage will be higher towards New England, where the first wave will be better timed with afternoon heating as well as having more moisture.

For Monday night, the deeper upper level trough will drop across NY and northern PA with cooling at mid-levels; even becoming a closed upper low into Tuesday. A small chance of showers will accompany this feature, becoming mainly east of I-81 on Tuesday as the low and its somewhat deeper moisture shift into New England.

Temperatures for the period will actually be right around climatology; highs of upper 70s-lower 80s and lows of upper 50s-lower 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. 445 AM Update . High pressure finally gives us a quiet midweek window, before passing waves reintroduce daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.

A high pressure ridge will translate across the region Tuesday night through Wednesday night with benign weather and a comfortable air mass. Lows of mid 50s-near 60 Tuesday night, will be followed by highs in the 80s Wednesday, and lows of mainly 60s Wednesday night.

For Thursday onward, we will get into the periphery of a broad belt of westerlies running roughly along the US-Canada border states. There is decent model agreement on a better-marked embedded wave passing through Thursday, which along with warmer temperatures/higher dewpoints and thus instability, will probably lead to some showers and thunderstorms. However, after Thursday there is uncertainty as to the degree to which the hot summertime ridge over the Central US will edge into our region. There is decent confidence that temperatures will be above average, but the question is will passing waves be close enough to initiate additional rounds of convection. For now, daily yet somewhat low chances of showers and thunderstorms appear warranted, with diurnally-focused timing simply due to anticipated instability each afternoon. If the ridge becomes dominant, that would inhibit convection more.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Mainly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. There will be some scattered showers and thunderstorms from about 21-22z to abt 06z-08z mainly around KELM, KITH, KBGM and KAVP terminals. The probabilities are low enough to not put in the TAFs. But if a storm or shower affects a terminal, conditions likely will be either MVFR or IFR for a brief time. Scattered showers and a few storms could affect KRME and KSYR mainly between 12z and 18z with the potential for brief periods of MVFR/IFR.

Winds will be mainly west 8 to 11 knots with a few gusts 18-20 kts this afternoon, especially KITH and KSYR. Winds overnight will become light and the northwest 5-10 knots by late Monday morning.

Outlook .

Monday Night through Tuesday night . Continued unsettled weather with afternoon showers and thunderstorms leading to occasional restrictions.

Tuesday night through Thursday . VFR other than potential valley fog at KELM late night-early morning.

Friday . VFR except brief restrictions possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . DJN NEAR TERM . DJN SHORT TERM . MDP LONG TERM . MDP AVIATION . DJN


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 31 mi50 min W 12 G 16 74°F 1006 hPa67°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 79 mi80 min NNW 15 G 16 72°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 80 mi50 min 74°F 1005.9 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY1 mi26 minW 11 G 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F66°F51%1005 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY21 mi26 minW 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F68°F65%1005.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE12
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SW8N8NW8NW4W6W16
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1 day agoSE10
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SE9E10E9E5CalmCalmN4N5NE5E3NW3CalmW6W6W3W8W7W9SW44SE7
2 days agoE34SE4CalmS6S6E6SE5SE5SE7SE5CalmS4SE6SE4SE5SE6E7E7E6E8E6E9E10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.