Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Syracuse, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
645 AM Update:

The temporary back edge of the rain has moved in quicker than expected and is actually already at the I-81 corridor. Rain showers will fill back in later this morning as the frontal boundary moves northward. Made some adjustments to PoPs for the next few hours to account for this. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

415 AM Update:

An area of low pressure continues to move eastward from the Ohio Valley to near the NY/PA border. This low pressure system is tracking along a warm front located just south of the area. As a result, rain showers have moved into the region, and this will continue through most of today. As an upper level trough digs farther into the Great Lakes, flow will become more southwesterly and this will allow the frontal boundary to lift a bit farther north. South of this boundary, a few embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out late this afternoon into this evening, but overall chances are rather low at this time.
Temperatures will be a bit complicated today, depending on how far north the frontal boundary gets and if there is any partial clearing across the Wyoming Valley-Poconos. North of the boundary, highs will only be in the mid 40s to mid 50s, while highs south of the boundary will likely be in the upper 50s to even near 70 degrees across parts of southern Luzerne County.

Rain showers are expected to continue tonight as the upper level trough moves through the area. By very late tonight/early Monday morning, temperatures may be just cold enough across parts of northern Oneida county for some wet snowflakes to mix in, but no accumulation is expected. Lows are expected to be in the mid 30s to upper 40s.

A northwest flow will develop on Monday with 850mb temperatures falling to around -4C. This combined with some wrap-around moisture around the departing upper level low will set the stage for lake effect rain showers to develop for Central NY and perhaps extending down to the Northern Tier of PA. This will also result in mostly cloudy skies, but some sunshine may break out during the afternoon for the Wyoming Valley-Poconos- Catskills. Temperatures will be roughly 10 degrees below normal for this time of the year with highs only topping out in the lower 40s to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
400 AM Update...

Upper level low pushes northeast of the region Monday night with much cooler air filtering in behind it. Wrap around moisture and northwest flow also follows this feature allowing precipitation to continue through most of the period as lake effect showers.
Temperatures aloft at 850 mb will fall as low as -5C, with the potential to introduce snowflakes to the region for the first time this season. Initially precipitation will fall as rain with temperatures ranging in the mid 30s to low 40s first half of the night. A mix of rain and snow is possible as temperatures begin to fall near freezing before potentially fully transitioning to snow in some of the higher elevated areas. A trace to a light coating of wet snow will be possible. Overnight lows will settle in the low to mid 30s across the region with northern Oneida in the upper 20s.

Similar pattern continues into Tuesday with temperatures climbing back above freezing in the morning with highs expected to range in the mid to upper 40s by afternoon. As a result snow showers will transition back to rain and last throughout the day. Northwest flow will continue to support lake effect precipitation over CNY along with gusty winds up to 25 mph.
Showers are expected to carry over into the overnight period as well with lows falling in the low to mid 30s. Temperatures near freezing will allow snow to return once again Tuesday night with light accumulations expected.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
400 AM Update...

Although the upper level trough departs by Wednesday a secondary short wave swings in from the midwest tracking south of our region. Being in between features northwest flow gets locked in allowing lake effect showers to continue for another day.
Mainly expecting rain showers as temperatures will range in the 40s, as temperatures begin to fall overnight a mix of rain and snow could sneak back in. Otherwise high pressure begins to build into the region by Thursday bringing drier air into the region, therefore cutting off shower potential. High pressure persists through the end of the period. Temperatures will be warmer towards the second half of the week as a ridge builds in.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Rain showers will bring lowering ceilings and visbys throughout the day today with mainly MVFR to Fuel Alternate conditions this morning, then some IFR restrictions by later this afternoon through tonight. KAVP has the best chance of remaining VFR for most of the period before MVFR ceiling restrictions may move in late tonight/early Monday morning. There will also be a small chance for thunder late this afternoon/this evening at KAVP and possibly KBGM, but the chances for this are too low to include in this set of TAFs.

Outlook

Monday through Wednesday...Scattered showers and associated occasional restrictions at Central NY terminals. Mainly VFR at KAVP.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.