Sunrise 5:34 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 3:42 PM   Moonset 2:39 AM

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LOZ044 Expires:202405190330;;442761 Fzus51 Kbuf 182032 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 432 pm edt Sat may 18 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-190330- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 432 pm edt Sat may 18 2024
Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog late. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Areas of fog in the morning otherwise partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.Sunday night - Northwest winds less than 10 knots. Patchy fog overnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - South winds less than 10 knots becoming north. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - East winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 49 degrees.

LOZ005
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FXUS61 KBGM 190553 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 153 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Lingering clouds and patchy fog is expected overnight into early Sunday morning. Sunday will be mainly dry with partly to mostly sunny skies, although an isolated afternoon rain shower cannot be ruled out. A significant warm-up is expected Monday through Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
940 PM Update:

Removed PoPs for the remainder of this evening as any lingering showers have dissipated. There still could be some patchy drizzle in spots, but this would not produce measurable rain.

630 PM Update:

The forecast remains largely on track. Main change with this update was to remove any mention of thunder since any showers that have developed west of I-81 (mainly Steuben county) have not developed into thunderstorms.

300 PM Update

Showers and drizzle continue across areas east of I-81 as the shortwave trough slides to the SE. Showers should start to taper off this afternoon across this area as the trough leaves the region. Some clearing in the western Finger Lakes has allowed some instability to develop, diving some cellular showers across the area, moving from NW to SE. Shear is minimal and the instability is very shallow so severe weather is not expected.
Some brief localized heavy showers will occur but flash flooding is not expected. Temps today will vary by about 10 degrees across the area. Under the cloud shield across the eastern CWA, low 60s are expected. Where clouds and rain have cleared a bit, temps will climb into the upper 60s to near 70.

Showers dissipate across the region this evening. With the ridge moving in, combined with light winds and a very moist boundary layer, widespread fog is expected to develop tonight. Best chances will be across the Twin Tiers, where the highest moisture will be. Some fog should also develop in the western Mohawk Valley but how far east it spreads is uncertain given the lack of moisture in the area today. Temperatures will be in the mid 50s across the region.

Sunday will be a very nice spring day, with temperatures topping out in the mid to upper 70s and partly cloudy skies. A few isolated showers may pop up across the Twin Tiers, especially if we can get some clearing.

Sunday night should see some more patchy fog with high pressure, light winds and small dewpoint depressions across the region.
Temperatures will be nearly identical to Saturday night, with lows in the mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
315 PM Update

High pressure will be over the region, the ridge likely to remain in place through the short term period. This will result in winds shifting to south-southwesterly gradually bringing in a warmer and slightly more humid airmass. Temperatures rise well above average, with highs 80 to 85 on Monday for most locations.
Warming up even a bit more on Tuesday, with highs well into the 80s areawide. There will be a slight chance for a thunderstorm over the western Finger Lakes Monday evening along the lake breeze front, then up north of I-90 Tuesday afternoon/evening.
This will be associated with a weak wave over the top of the ridge.Tuesday night is warm and muggy with lows in the upper 50s to mid-60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
315 PM Update

The large ridge of high pressure still looks to be over the region Wednesday morning before being chipped away by an approaching cold front late in the day. This front then looks to break down the ridge by Thursday. Temperatures continue to trend warmer mid-week, with highs now 85 to 90 in the forecast Wednesday afternoon. Dew points are slightly humid in the lower 60s, this will keep heat indices close to the actual temperature and not much higher. Overnight lows are warm and muggy in the low to mid-60s Wednesday night.

Enough lift, moisture and instability looks present for at least some scattered showers & T'storms Wednesday evening out ahead of the main cold frontal passage. Exact timing and location of the prefrontal trough remains a little uncertain still. Instability during the afternoons is moderate, with surface CAPE currently modeled from about 500-1000 J/KG so some thunderstorms will be possible as well. Deep layer shear is only about 20-25 kts Wednesday afternoon.

If the current timing holds, the main cold front would pass through the region on Thursday. Out ahead of the front MLCAPE would be between 600-1200 J/kg, with deep layer shear increasing to 40-50 kts Thursday afternoon. This scenario could lead to some more organized thunderstorm activity. However, there are still some timing differences with the operational models and ensemble guidance with the frontal timing. Continued to lean more toward the slower ECMWF suite at this time. Given the timing differences it is still to early to determine the potential for any strong to severe thunderstorms.

After the front passes through, it looks to cool down and dry out Thursday night. Lows will dip down into the upper 40s to mid-50s. Friday is now forecast to be mainly dry with weak high pressure in place and seasonable temperatures. There remain many difference in the weather pattern by next Saturday; the model guidance seems to be trending toward a drier pattern for our area in the more recent runs. Confidence remains a bit low on just how the up coming Memorial Day weekend weather will play out. For now followed the NBM/Ensemble guidance which gives partly sunny skies and a low chance for scattered rain showers, with highs in the low to mid-70s next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Low stratus has cleared from SYR, RME and ELM, but remain at BGM, ITH, and AVP. ELM has developed fog already that will likely last to around 12Z. RME will likely start to see patchy fog in the next few hours. SYR will have the toughest time to get fog to develop but given the low level moisture, some IFR restrictions are possible so put in a tempo for just before sunrise.

The stratus has been IFR at BGM and ITH with the elevation of the airports and AVP has been holding on to MVFR cigs for now.
As winds aloft become a little more northerly at AVP, the cigs will likely drop to IFR into 12Z. The stratus will likely hold through the rest of the night but if it clears, fog development will occur quickly keeping mostly IFR or worse restrictions into 12Z.

Tomorrow is looking VFR once all the fog clears out as dry air will scatter out any remaining cigs. Winds will be light and variable with high pressure in place.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Some showers possible late Wednesday through Thursday.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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