Tuesday, December10, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Montague, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:04AMSunset 5:11PM Tuesday December 10, 2019 4:13 PM EST (21:13 UTC) Moonrise 4:26PMMoonset 6:17AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ872 Expires:201912110430;;156368 Fzus63 Kmkx 102058 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 258 Pm Cst Tue Dec 10 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Low pressure of 30.4 inches will move over the middle mississippi valley tonight. Then high pressure of 30.6 inches will move into minnesota Wednesday morning. West winds will continue into Wednesday but diminish late Wednesday the high moves across lake michigan. The colder airmass in place will lead to freezing spray at times through mid-week. South winds will increase Thursday as a weak low pressure system around 30.0 inches pushes in. A few gale force gusts are possible in the afternoon, especially over the center and south half of the lake. The low will move across the lake Thursday night. Lighter winds are expected on Friday. && lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-110430- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 258 pm cst Tue dec 10 2019 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Tonight..West winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Slight chance of snow. Freezing spray overnight. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Wednesday..West winds to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Freezing spray in the morning. Slight chance of snow. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southwest late in the evening, then becoming south after midnight becoming 10 to 20 kt late. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday..South gales to 35 kt increasing to gales to 40 kt. Chance of rain and snow in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft building to 8 to 11 ft occasionally to 14 ft.
Thursday night..Southwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt overnight. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 kt. Chance of rain. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west to 30 kt. Chance of rain and snow. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 3 to 5 ft.
Sunday..Northwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
LMZ872


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montague, MI
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location: 43.14, -87.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 102029 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 329 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

LATEST UPDATE . Synopsis/Discussion/Marine

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

- Lake effect snow continues into Wednesday

- An increase in intensity in the snow possible Wednesday morning

- Weak system Thursday/Thursday night mainly misses us north

- Saturday/Saturday night system brings some rain/snow

- Model disparity with system early next week

DISCUSSION. (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

First order of business is whether or not the lake effect snow tonight into Wednesday morning will rise to the level of a Winter Weather Advisory headline. Our current thinking is that it will not. That said, the moisture depth was greater this morning than the models were indicating and if that happens again tonight there could be some impacts. At this point, we are thinking the rather mundane lake effect snow that is ongoing now as of 300pm will continue in that fashion through the evening hours. Overnight night into Wednesday morning, there may be another uptick in intensity, but we are not thinking to the level that would need an advisory. Snowfall totals going forward from this evening through Wednesday afternoon should be on the order of 2 inches or less. Given the roads have been treated in most areas in the last 12-18 hours we are envisioning less in the way of impacts than occurred this morning. Moisture depth is forecast in BUFKIT via the NAM12 to be generally less than 5,000ft deep which should not result in significant snow. The one signal that is somewhat notable is a decent amount of omega below 5,000ft which intersects the DGZ. Given moisture depth though we think it stays in check.

A weak low is forecast to move our direction in the Thursday and Thursday night time frame with the bulk of the precipitation staying off to the north of the forecast area. The U.S. 10 corridor is the area that stands the best chance for precipitation with some light snow up in that area. Any accumulations should be less than an inch.

Another system is forecast to move through the area on Saturday and Saturday night. Rain and snow would be the precipitation types on Saturday with colder air flowing in behind it Saturday night resulting in lake effect snow. The depth of this low is in question though as an east coast low is forming at the same time and may steal some of the energy from our potential system.

The deterministic ECMWF does not have a system moving through our area next week Tuesday, but the GFS certainly does. The GFS has a 996mb low moving through northern Ohio on Tuesday which would give our area a swath of snow. The spread in the European ensembles is quite scattered however, so the jury is still out on this system. Low placement ranges from Indiana to well off the east coast.

Coldest day of the next 7 days is tomorrow on Wednesday with a warming trend back towards normal for Thursday through Saturday.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 112 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

As is often the case with lake effect snow, aviation conditions downwind of the lake across Western Lower Michigan are highly variable. Conditions range from VFR in between snow bands to LIFR at times.

We expect the snow bands to lose some intensity as we work through the afternoon hours of today. Conditions will improve slightly to mainly VFR and MVFR this afternoon and evening. We are then expecting a slight increase in lake effect snow activity overnight into Wednesday morning where aviation conditions will dip back into the MVFR and IFR categories. Conditions should improve once again Wednesday afternoon.

Winds will be west this afternoon at 10-20 knots, backing down to 8-12 knots tonight and increasing once again on Wednesday to 15-25 knots.

MARINE. Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

The current Small Craft Advisory continues through tonight and Wednesday. West winds of 15-25 knots will be efficient in creating waves given this is a cold air advection wind. The colder air is heavy and dense and effectively digs into the water surface. Waves of 4 to 7 feet are expected tonight and Wednesday.

Our next wave event follows quickly on the heels of the current one, with strong south flow developing. 6 to 9 foot waves are expected north of Holland Thursday afternoon and evening. At this point will hold off on a second SCA. We will most likely issue

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ844>849.



SYNOPSIS . Duke DISCUSSION . Duke AVIATION . Duke MARINE . Duke


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 37 mi34 min NW 9.9 G 12 22°F 1022.5 hPa14°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 46 mi34 min WNW 9.9 G 13 20°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 48 mi94 min W 8.9 G 15 19°F 1021.3 hPa

Wind History for Holland, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI40 mi19 minW 72.50 miLight Snow21°F10°F65%1021.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMKG

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW14
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S12SW6W4CalmCalmSE4SE5SE4E4CalmSE4SE6SE7SE6SE7S13
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2 days agoS9SE8SE5S8SE7SE9SE8SE7S8S10S15
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.