Tuesday, October27, 2020
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Montague, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:13AMSunset 6:44PM Tuesday October 27, 2020 10:47 AM EDT (14:47 UTC) Moonrise 4:36PMMoonset 3:09AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ872 Expires:202010272115;;917689 Fzus63 Kmkx 271343 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 843 Am Cdt Tue Oct 27 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. High pressure around 30.5 inches will continue to move south into the southern plains through today, while a surface low averaging 29.5 inches develops in the lee of the canadian rockies. This surface low will weaken slightly as it tracks east across central canada and merges with another surface low over the hudson bay on Wednesday. As this happens, a period of southwest gales appear likely across the northern third of the lake late tonight and into Wednesday. Behind the departing surface low, high pressure of 30.2 inches moves in across the upper great lakes. && lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-272115- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 843 am cdt Tue oct 27 2020 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Rest of today..West winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of rain showers through mid morning. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Wednesday..Southwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Wednesday night..West winds 10 to 20 kt veering to north. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft.
Thursday night..North winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Friday..North winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Saturday..South winds to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
LMZ872


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montague, MI
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location: 43.14, -87.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 271056 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 656 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Update/Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 303 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

- Light rain showers developing today

- Small chance for light rain showers south Thursday

- Dry weather pattern Friday and beyond

UPDATE. Issued at 656 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Our radar is showing the precipitation developing as the jet streak moves over Lower Michigan. There looks to be a seeder feeder event going on over the lake effect precipitation band that is just off shore as the precipitation is heavier over the band. This area of precipitation will move onshore soon and spread over most of Southwest. It may mix with snow inland of US-131 for a few hours but it should not accumulate.

I updated our forecast for Sunday after seeing the 00z ECMWF, similar to the 00z GFS brought a strong cold front through this area early in the morning. 850 temperatures fall to near -9c on both models by mid afternoon. Typically if the 850 temp can get colder than -6c it is usually cold enough for snow to reach the ground. So, given that I used the ECMWF and GFS hourly temperatures in our grids to show falling temperatures during the day. There will likely be some rain/snow showers with this as we have cyclonic low level winds, we are inside the upper jet (which means we have deep cold air) and when all that is true, usually we get lake enhanced convection.

This cold air does not last long through, the next upstream system which tracks well north of our area buts us in zonal upper low which brings Pacific air back into this area for most of next week.


DISCUSSION. (Today through next Monday) Issued at 303 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

-- Light rain showers developing today --

Light rain showers will gradually develop this morning into this afternoon before slowly tapering off as an upper level trough moves through. A little lake effect/lake enhancement to this pcpn is expected with h8 temps down around -4 to -6 C this morning. Some wet snow flakes may mix in this morning mainly north to northwest of KGRR. However precipitation will be light and no impacts to the morning commute are expected. The light pcpn will taper off this aftn as the upper trough moves east.

-- Small chance for light rain showers south Thursday --

A consensus of latest medium range guidance suggests that nearly all of the rain tied to the tropical remnants will stay south to southeast of our area Thursday. This as fairly strong Canadian high pressure just north of Lake Superior helps to funnel cool and dry air into our area on northeast to east winds. However a few light rain showers may just clip our southernmost fcst area mainly near to south of the I-94 corridor.

-- Dry weather pattern Friday and beyond --

A medium range guidance consensus continue to suggest a dry wx pattern will develop Friday through the weekend into next week. A cold front will move through on Sunday but better forcing/upper dynamics/moisture stays north of our area. Therefore a dry fropa looks likely at this time. Milder temps are forecast for most of next week.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 656 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

We have the last of our Lake Enhanced showers this morning that will move on shore shortly. This will bring a 6 to 8 hour period of showers and MVFR cigs to most of our TAF sites. The I-96 TAF sites will be more impacted by this event than the I-94 TAF sites but all sites should get the MVFR cigs mid to late morning. The air may be cold enough to have the showers mix with snow at MKG and maybe even GRR.

All of this moves out by early afternoon as the upper wave causing all of this also moves out. Strong mid-level warm advection will keep the lake precipitation band and also clear the clouds out. All TAF sites should have clear or nearly clear skies tonight.

MARINE. Issued at 303 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Fairly minimal wind speeds and wave heights are forecast today. Winds and wave heights will ramp up late today through Wednesday as winds become west to southwesterly and strengthen to 20 to 30 kts overnight and potentially reach gale force by early Wednesday. Therefore a small craft advisory is being issued from late this afternoon through Wednesday.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>849.



UPDATE . WDM SYNOPSIS . Laurens DISCUSSION . Laurens AVIATION . WDM MARINE . Laurens


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 32 mi28 min NW 7.8 G 9.7 40°F 52°F1027.4 hPa35°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 48 mi68 min NW 7 G 8.9 32°F 1027.8 hPa

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI40 mi53 minESE 42.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist36°F33°F89%1026.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMKG

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4NW8N5N4NW8NW10NW6NW7N6N7N4N3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmS3S3CalmCalmSE4
1 day agoNE7NE8CalmE4E5CalmN5N7N7N9N8NE8N7N7N8N7N6N7N4NE7N5N3N5Calm
2 days agoNW5NW10NW4NW9N5NW5W9NW6N4N6N5N5N3NE3N3N3NE3NE4NE3N4NE8N5NE6NE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.