Tuesday, May11, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Montague, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 8:59PM Tuesday May 11, 2021 6:18 AM EDT (10:18 UTC) Moonrise 5:35AMMoonset 8:05PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ872 Expires:202105111530;;935134 Fzus63 Kmkx 110803 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 303 Am Cdt Tue May 11 2021 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. High pressure of 30.4 inches over northern minnesota will slowly push southeast through the region today into Friday. North winds today across lake michigan will become light and variable tonight into the rest of the week. && lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-111530- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 303 am cdt Tue may 11 2021 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Today..North winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northwest 10 to 15 kt, then diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming west. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 10 kt backing to west. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming south. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thursday night..South winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming south. Waves 1 ft or less.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
LMZ872


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montague, MI
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location: 43.14, -87.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 110804 CCA AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion . CORRECTED National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 404 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021

LATEST UPDATE . Synopsis/Discussion/Marine

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 337 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021

- Freeze expected again tonight / possible Thursday morning

- Dry conditions into this coming weekend

- Possible change to warmer and wetter next week

DISCUSSION. (Today through next Monday) Issued at 337 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021

- Freeze expected again tonight / possible Thursday morning-

I expect tonight (Wednesday morning) actually has the greatest risk of freezing temperatures of any day this week. I believe this since this coming night, unlike this morning, we will have the surface high moving into the area while the upper low will finally be moving off the east. That will allow decoupling and temperatures should have no problem falling into the mid to upper 20s north and near 30 inland south.

We will more than likely issue another freeze warning for tonight. Typically do not have two headlines for the same thing, so we will wait for the current freeze warning to expire before we issue the one for TONIGHT.

The question is then is will we need one for Thursday morning? I am thinking we will likely need at least a frost advisory and possibly a freeze warning northern sections. The upper high is moving in by then and the surface high will be overhead. So winds will be near calm and skies should be clear. I could see lows getting colder than our models are suggesting.

- Dry conditions into this coming weekend-

For starters, as of the 10th of May, at Grand Rapids, this is the driest year to date (10th of May) since 2001! Grand Rapids was 5.19 inches below normal for total yearly precipitation, which is a little below only 1/2 of normal. At Muskegon it is the driest year to date, since 1989! Muskegon is 5.78 inches below normal for the year. Going to the Midwest Climate Center, climate Group 8 (Grand Raids, Holland, South Have, and Kalamazoo) is, for January through April, is the driest since 1958! The 5.84 inch mean precipitation for this group was only a 1/2 inch wetter than the driest year, 1934 (5.31"). This is the 4th driest on record (1895 to 2021). By the way, the median for Group 8, for January through April is 9.37". I hope, by now, I have convinced you this has been unusually dry so far this year across the area. I see no reason to believe in the next 5 days this will change. We have an upper ridge moving in with the polar jet solidly holding south of this area.

The best we can do for rain is this afternoon, getting some isolated showers inland of US-131. The upper cold pool will still overhead, so we will see some instability showers, mostly well east of US-131 (where the instability is greater). The Equilibrium level there is forecast near 14000 ft. That puts cloud top temperatures below 0F. So precipitation will be more than possible. It will just be isolated through.

After that we get an upper ridge to move over us for Thursday while a surface high is over us. On Friday we do get another northern stream shortwave coming through the area so isolated showers would be possible in the afternoon. Even so the surface high remains over this area into Sunday. Most locations will likely see no precipitation at all from today through Sunday.

- Possible change to warmer and wetter next week-

Things may change next week. The MJO is forecast to become to weak into influence the upper level wave pattern by then. Also by next week the models show the NAO and AO remaining weakly negative while the PNA is also negative. That is a classic wet pattern for this area. Beyond that, the models all show, in one form or another, an digging Pacific shortwave that should be strong enough to bring the polar jet north of us. That in turn will bring us back into a pattern that would bring rain into this area. It's to early to have much detail about this through. So who knows, maybe it will figure out way to rain meaningfully here yet this month?

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 209 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021

Expect solid VFR conditions to prevail through Tuesday night. We still have some instability shower potential this afternoon. This is due to afternoon heating, since we remain in under the pocket of cold air at mid and upper levels. Any showers, will be isolated and brief. I put VCSH for the more inland TAF sites since that is were the risk is highest. I would suspect that LAN and JXN have the greatest risk for a brief shower since the highest instability is father east today.

I would expect cumulus clouds will become broken in coverage by late morning or early afternoon for locations near and east of US-131, locations west of that may stay mostly clear (like MKG or BIV). GRR will likely have broken ceilings from 15z till around 21z but then clouds will clear from west to east.

It will be breezy once again during the day time as there are 20 knot winds in the mixed layer to mix down. Winds will again diminish by mid evening.

MARINE. Issued at 337 AM EDT Tue May 11 2021

We have a marginal set up for a small craft advisory today but since the water temperature remains well below the air temperature we will not mix down the momentum so wave height should not exceed 3 feet.

Once we get past this afternoon the surface high will be overhead or nearly so into Sunday so we will not need a small craft advisory until next week.


GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ037>040- 043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM . None.

SYNOPSIS . WDM DISCUSSION . WDM AVIATION . WDM MARINE . WDM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45161 36 mi59 min NNW 9.7 G 9.7 41°F 42°F1 ft1024.5 hPa
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 37 mi39 min N 6 G 7 38°F 1026.1 hPa31°F
45029 43 mi39 min NW 9.7 G 14 41°F 42°F2 ft1025.4 hPa36°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 46 mi39 min WSW 2.9 G 4.1 40°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 48 mi39 min NW 5.1 G 7 37°F 1026.4 hPa

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI40 mi24 minNW 610.00 miA Few Clouds38°F30°F73%1025.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMKG

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NE4NE4N5NW5NW8W12W12W13
G21
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NW7N7NW8N8N6N8NW6NW7NW6NW6
1 day agoCalmNE3E4E7E10NE15
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N10NW12N7N7N8N5N6N8N8NE9N5N5
2 days agoW4NW8NW8W8W10W11W12
G17
W11NW11W13W11
G18
W12W7W5W4NW3N3N3CalmNE4NE33CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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