Tuesday, January21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Montague, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:08AMSunset 5:43PM Tuesday January 21, 2020 5:47 PM EST (22:47 UTC) Moonrise 5:31AMMoonset 2:53PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ872 Expires:202001220415;;306000 Fzus63 Kmkx 212036 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 236 Pm Cst Tue Jan 21 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Strong high pressure of 30.6 inches over the ohio river valley will continue east as low pressure around 29.7 inches approaches from the northern plains. Southwest gales are expected over most of the north half of the lake through early Wednesday evening. Winds will briefly weaken on Thursday before another low pressure approaches from the plains. This will initially result in easterly winds late in the week, possibly becoming northerly heading into the weekend as the low passes south of the region. && lmz080-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-876-878-220415- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 236 pm cst Tue jan 21 2020 two rivers wi to manistee mi south...
Tonight..Southwest winds to 30 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft building to 8 to 12 ft occasionally to 16 ft.
Wednesday..Southwest winds to 30 kt becoming south. Waves 8 to 12 ft occasionally to 16 ft subsiding to 7 to 10 ft occasionally to 13 ft.
Wednesday night..South winds to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Chance of rain and snow overnight. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 20 kt. Rain and snow likely. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt. Rain likely. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday..East winds 10 to 20 kt. Rain likely. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Friday night..East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northeast. Rain likely. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north. Chance of rain. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
LMZ872


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montague, MI
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location: 43.14, -87.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 212018 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 318 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Synopsis/Discussion/Marine/Hydro

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

- Rounds of light to moderate snow or rain/snow mix possible from Thursday into Saturday

- Quiet weather early next week with more precipitation possible by the middle of next week

DISCUSSION. (This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

-- Rounds of light to moderate snow or rain/snow mix possible from Thursday into Saturday --

As an area of high pressure across the Ohio Valley moves east midweek, modest return flow moves into Lower Michigan and this will increase deep layer relative humidity. Precipitation chances do go up Thursday morning as an area of light snow migrates from WI/IL toward Lower Michigan. Medium range model guidance is in general agreement on this evolution. Temperatures at 925/850/700mb are cold enough to keep this all snow for our area with no above freezing layer present, though surface temperatures may max out a touch above freezing during the afternoon. Travel impacts may not necessarily be zero at this point, with a light coating of snow possible throughout the day (some melting on contact potentially, but some sticking as well . perhaps an inch or so). The Thursday evening commute may have some minor impacts depending on how the road surface temperatures behave.

Models are suggesting a couple potential outcomes for Friday into Saturday, with a complete miss of precipitation looking less likely at this point. The GFS/GEFS are in alignment with an upper low moving across central IL/IN/OH which would place our region in a favorable position for accumulating precipitation. The ECMWF/GEM are a bit further south with the upper low. Temps at 850mb and especially 925mb may just barely be cold enough to keep precip all snow especially near/north of I-96. The 925mb 0C-2C isotherms do try to nudge into southern Lower Friday, which could create a rain/snow mix or a period of rain only especially south of I-96. GFS soundings suggest very deep moisture with lift present below, in, and above the DGZ. However, the DGZ is rather high between 10-15k ft and some ice crystals will melt on their descent given the potential melting layer below the DGZ.

A consensus of the deterministic runs/ensemble means indicate QPF amounts of 0.25"-0.50" are likely Friday into Saturday. If most or all of this stays snow, we are expecting low snow to liquid ratios on the order of 6:1 to 9:1 or so. Thus, snow accumulations drawn out over a 24-36 hour period could amount to 2"-4" potentially. Any rain mixing in would lower those amounts. Some travel impacts for the Friday evening commute are not out of the question depending on how this plays out.

-- Quiet weather early next week with more precipitation possible by the middle of next week --

A few leftover snow showers are possible Sunday, otherwise quieter weather is expected Monday into at least Tuesday as models are advertising mid level height rises moving into the region. However, at the same time, models are suggesting height rises across the western U.S. which then places a trough across the Plains. Potentially unsettled weather could develop in this region and many ensemble members are indicating a return to some form of precipitation (probably rain or a rain/snow mix) for our region by the middle of next week.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1239 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

The lake-induced 2k ft cloud deck has been hanging tough this afternoon but a slow scattering is expected mid to late afternoon. Winds will increase near the lakeshore tonight as the pressure gradient force increases, given the eastward migration of the high pressure over the Ohio Valley. It is possible that some gusts could reach 30 knots at MKG Wednesday morning/early afternoon.

MARINE. Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

In addition to Small Craft Advisories up and down the coastline today/tonight into Wednesday, high wave action has necessitated the inclusion of a Lakeshore Flood Advisory from Ottawa County north. Typically waves of 6 to 10 feet will produce minor flooding of adjacent coastal parking lots and vulnerable streets. Minor erosion of beaches and sand dunes will begin once again. The latest mean lake level for Lake Michigan just isn't budging given the amount of precipitation the state has received this month, so high wave action will continue to pose a threat to the coastline during what normally would be a month of declining water levels.

HYDROLOGY. Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2020

The river flood warning at Robinson Township has been cancelled today. This leaves the Grand River basin free of any flood alerts. Further south, an ice jam formed on the Kalamazoo River near Comstock on Monday and this continued into today. Flows were backed up to near flood stage at times but as of this afternoon a substantial drop was noted. However, the river may fluctuate again over the next 24 hours given the erratic nature of ice jams and changing river flows. We are not expecting much, if any, additional ice formation in the river given our mean daily temperatures will not be below 20 degrees this week. Residents and businesses should continue monitoring the river while the jam is present.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 5 PM EST Wednesday for MIZ037-043-050-056.

LM . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for LMZ846>849.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Thursday for LMZ844-845.



SYNOPSIS . Hoving DISCUSSION . Hoving AVIATION . Hoving HYDROLOGY . Hoving MARINE . Hoving


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 37 mi27 min WSW 18 G 21 30°F 1032.7 hPa23°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 46 mi37 min SSW 7 G 9.9 28°F
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 48 mi67 min SW 9.9 G 16 28°F 1031.2 hPa

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI40 mi52 minSW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy30°F19°F66%1032.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMKG

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10N7N6N3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmW6W7W9SW10
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1 day agoN9N6N6N3CalmCalmN4NE5E5NE4NE6NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW5Calm
2 days agoW15
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--W18
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N9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.