Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Montague, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

- Risk for Severe Thunderstorms and Flooding Tonight

Severe thunderstorms with the risk of damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes, and heavy rain expected largely between 7PM tonight to 4AM early Wednesday.

Significant clearing has occurred across the area allowing for instability to build this afternoon. HRRR is highlighting around 2000 J/kg of surface based cape largely along and south of I-96 with similar MUCAPE values extending further north. Upper level divergence will be in play along with low level jet convergence as it moves in between 7PM-10PM this evening. It is in this window we expect storms to develop. Effective shear of around 40-50 knots will aid in storms becoming more organized with 0-1km storm relative helicity values of 200 m2/s2 largely along and south of I-96 and mid level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km. With this setup all hazards are in play. The highest risk for tornadoes will be along and south of I-96 due the greater storm relative helicity values and surface based CAPE. Storms may begin isolated before congealing into a line that moves southeastward through the state. Quick spin-up tornadoes and damaging winds will be possible with the line.

Corfidi vectors may aid in some backbuilding behind storms this evening which would increase the flooding potential. HRRR highlights local probability matched mean amounts of 2 to 4 inches in portions of western, central, and southern Michigan. With these signals the flood watch has been extended to the entire area.

- Continued Thunderstorms and Flooding Chances Wednesday

Conditional risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

The low level jet should help sustain rain and thunderstorms into Wednesday morning, especially for areas along and south of I-94. The threat for severe thunderstorms later Wednesday will be directly tied to if we are able to recover from the morning convection. If we aren't able to recover enough, garden variety thunderstorms with heavy rain are expected. If we are able to recover, damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible. Mean HRRR values currently have surface based CAPE values improve to around 500 to 1000 J/kg.
Meanwhile minimum surface based CAPE values are 500 less than 500 J/kg and maximum values are 2000 J/kg or greater along and south of I-96. This large spread points to the large uncertainty with how tomorrow will play out.

However, with any rainfall, the flooding risk will continue due to the already saturated conditions from the previous rounds of rainfall. Check the HYDROLOGY section for more information.

- Active Stretch of Weather Continues into Weekend

An upper level low moves through the region Thursday, continuing rain and thunderstorm chances into Thursday evening. Pressure heights increase Thursday night into Friday, giving the area a brief break in the rainfall. However, southwest flow returns ahead of a deep trough, bringing rain and thunderstorm chances back to the area Friday night into Saturday. There is a potential for severe thunderstorms as well, which is outlined in the SPC day 5 outlook.

Colder air moves in behind the low Saturday with lows Saturday night into Sunday dropping into the 30s. This could result in some snow mixing in on the backside. Highs Sunday are only expected to be in the 40s, and with breezy west to northwest winds, this will probably keep wind chills in the upper 20s to 30s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 140 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over West Michigan through this afternoon, along with SW breezes gusting to near 20 kts and SCT-BKN 4-5kft CU/SC. This tranquil weather will not last.

Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across parts of WI/IL/IA. These storms will likely congeal into one or perhaps two solid lines of strong-severe thunderstorms as they race eastward across Lake Michigan. Storms will arrive at MKG around 01Z, GRR/AZO/BTL roughly 01-02Z, and LAN/JXN around 03Z. Strong gusty winds and IFR conditions will accompany these storms.

The storms will subside overnight, though MVFR conditions and a chance for showers will persist through Wednesday morning.

MARINE
Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Wave heights will continue to fall below Small Craft Advisory conditions this afternoon, therefore the Advisory has been cancelled. Dense fog is slowly clearing as well. Will keep the dense fog advisory for now, but it could be cancelled early if conditions continue to improve.

Thunderstorms are expected tonight with the potential for damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. Higher waves will also be possible with any thunderstorm. Thunderstorms will gradually taper off in the southern zones Wednesday morning, but there is a chance they could linger through the day. Otherwise thunderstorm chances return late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Bottom line: The most significant flood in recent years is likely upcoming on the Muskegon River, with several locations expected to pass Major flood stage.

Another 1-2 inches of rain fell last night, primarily in upper/headwaters portions of the Muskegon River Watershed. This joins the previous 2-5 inches of rain in the area that is all finding its way toward the river. A significant and impactful flood on the Muskegon River will be developing over the next few days, with a crest expected in the Friday timeframe.

Meanwhile, additional rounds of heavy rain are expected to shift south a bit starting today, with the Grand River basin the more likely to be impacted. With 1-2" across a large area, and locally 3"+ bullseyes expected, we are expecting some localized flooding to develop overnight tonight, especially if the thunderstorms track over urban areas repeatedly. This will also eventually get the Grand River water levels increasing again over the next few days.
Currently, this looks like we'll largely repeat the minor flooding (on the Grand River and tributaries) that occurred in the last few weeks. Further south, the Kalamazoo River has been a bit drier lately, so no flooding is expected to develop there, though urban and poor-drainage area flooding will definitely be possible over the next day or two as the thunderstorms move through.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MIZ037>040-043>046- 050>052.
Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through late Thursday night for MIZ056>059-064>067-071>074.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ848-849.