Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Spring Green, WI

SHORT TERM
Issued 330 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Today and Tonight:

An MCV feature continues to stick around over the southwest parts of WI this morning and appears likely to hang around at least for the next several hours. This will keep shower chances through the early morning hours as it slowly migrates north.
There is some potential for storm development over the next few hours with this as instability increases as the sun comes out as we start to diurnally heat. We will continue to monitor over the next few hours for additional development.

The morning and early afternoon hours will for the most part keep much of the CWA dry but the western fringes will keep some shower/storm risk with a shortwave pushing across the area but with decreasing low to mid level moisture further east dry air will likely inhibit much in the way of showers or storms further east, particularly into the early afternoon.

Into the late afternoon and evening hours we will see another shortwave slide through but this one looks to be associated with better low to mid level moisture and will benefit from additional forcing from the frontal feature sliding across the region associated with the low pushing east across the northern Great Lakes region. There is at least a decent chance for stronger storms with this despite the potentially later timing given some instability and modest deep layer shear. Some CAMs have shown support for the development of an MCS feature in southern MN and northern IA that would potentially push into southern WI overnight but there remains a lot of uncertainty with that risk as a few CAMs show nothing at all but this will be worth monitoring to our west later today. However as with the previous days the drier air further east as well as the instability dropping further into the evening eastern parts of the CWA may remain dry overnight and this could result in a remnant MCV feature if an MCS were to occur withing the region.
This will may especially be the case as the front somewhat stalls overnight over the CWA between the departing low to the north and the developing low in the Central Plains.

Kuroski

LONG TERM
Issued 330 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Tuesday through Sunday:

Overall, model ensembles are in pretty good agreement with the expected upper level pattern evolution into next weekend. As is typically the case with these summertime patterns, the devil is in the mesoscale details from day to day.

The door remains open to remnant MCS activity Tuesday as a low level boundary will either be overhead or very nearby. Certainly not enough confidence in a washout scenario, but there are chances for periodic showers and storms in a warm and muggy airmass.
Unlike the past couple of days, low level westerly winds will, for at least a time, allow areas adjacent to Lake Michigan to warm into the 80s.

The best opportunity for showers/storms is still centered on Wednesday/Wednesday night. Timing differences continue to exist with the Canadian/European ensembles about 6-12 hours faster than the GEFS. The main consequence of this discrepancy is whether we can muster enough instability with increasing shear to result in a risk for severe storms. In the end, this is a mesoscale problem, with a whole host of possible caveats. Keep an eye out for at least a few storms to produce a wind/hail risk.

High pressure attempts to build into the region Thursday, though northwest flow on the back edge of the departing upper wave keeps the door open to diurnally driven showers and a few storms. The influence of this high will be very short lived as a warm front will quickly approach from the southwest heading into Friday as the upper level pattern amplifies. Expect additional, periodic rain chances associated with the warm front Friday/Friday night.

The summer solstice arrives at 941 PM CDT Friday evening, and right on queue, summertime temperatures arrive on Saturday. A deepening trough over the western CONUS will promote increased ridging aloft. The ensembles only offer minor differences with this pattern, mainly focused on the amplitude of the ridging over the central and eastern CONUS. This does bear watching as it governs just how far north the resultant storm track will set up.

As it stands right now, the storm track looks to set up to our north (per Canadian/European ensemble mean), with temperatures surging to well above average levels. The NBM probabilistic guidance indicates a 50% chance of highs at or above 90 degrees over much of the area. With dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s, this will feel very much like the heart of summer with heat index values well into the 90s, especially inland areas. Bottom line, watch out for increasing heat impacts next weekend.

Gagan

AVIATION
Issued 330 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Scattered rain showers linger west of Madison this morning, with dry weather elsewhere. Additional shower and weak thunderstorm development remains possible primarily west of Madison this morning. Higher uncertainty this afternoon and onwards, but best shower/storm chances will largely be confined to the western half of the state (though a decaying line of thunderstorms pushing further east later tonight remains a possibility). Modest south winds today. CIGS will remain around 5000 ft with the showers with higher CIGS elsewhere. VFR conditions expected with only a very slight chance for VSBY reductions with any rain showers/storms further west.

Kuroski

MARINE
Issued 330 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

High pressure, now over the Atlantic will with low pressure over the northern plains has allowed for winds to turn southerly today. Winds will turn increasingly breezy particularly on the north side of the lake this evening into Tuesday as the low pressure crosses the northern Great Lakes region, bringing chances for thunderstorms. Another low pressure approaches from the central Great Plains on Wednesday, with continued thunderstorm chances. The exact trajectory of this low will determine Wednesday's wind field, but for now the best guess is southerly winds for the south half and easterly winds for the north half of the lake.

Kuroski

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.