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FXUS63 KMKX 020405 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1005 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

UPDATE
(Issued 1004 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023)

Snow and rain will continue across eastern Wisconsin over the next couple of hours as the better lift and upper level support moves east out of the state. Drier air has set up in the lower levels across the western and northern portions of our forecast area. With some drier air near the surface, any additional precipitation that pops up on radar across southwestern Wisconsin will struggle to reach the ground.

Patterson

SHORT TERM
(Issued 307 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023)

Tonight through Sunday night:

Rain is changing to snow west to east across srn WI but the relatively mild temps via onshore flow should maintain rain near Lake MI but also much of Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha Counties.
A vorticity maximum is currently arriving from nrn IL and additional ones will stream newd from MO and KS tnt. Additional lift from the right entrance region of a wly 110 kt jet over se Canada and weak frontogenesis is also expected during this time.
Snow accums mostly under an inch expected with possibly light slushy accums on roadways tnt well west of the MKE metro area.
Locations north and west of Madison may see no pcpn at all. A sfc ridge will build into the area for Saturday but stratus clouds will remain in place with seasonal temps expected.

Another fairly strong shortwave trough will then move across the Great Plains to lower MI for Sat nt-Sun. PVA and 300 mb warm advection will overspread srn WI from west to east, but once again the low level temperature profile is making pcpn type difficult.
QPF around 0.20 inches is being forecast and is a nice blend of the various models qpf. All rain is forecast over far ern WI with a mix of rain and snow for the remainder of se WI, then all snow for much of south central WI toward FLD and wrn Sheboygan County.
Given the mild conditions, kept any snow accums under an inch for the snow areas.

Gehring

LONG TERM
(Issued 307 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023)

Monday through Friday:

300 mb pattern indicates large scale troughing over the Northeast and ridging slowly building across the High Plains, putting southern Wisconsin in the general path of a couple minor clipper systems throughout next week. Southwesterly surface winds ahead of these systems will serve to keep temperatures higher during the timeframe of potential precipitation, leading to continued concern over precipitation type.

Included mentions of a rain/snow mix in southwestern to south- central Wisconsin on Monday night into Tuesday with this forecast update, as the dendritic growth zone remains saturated throughout the timeframe of precipitation but surface temperatures hover near or just above freezing. Surface temperatures will inhibit most snow accumulations. As this clipper is weak, chances for precipitation remain in the 20-40% chance range for southern Wisconsin.

A system is currently expected to propagate north of the area on Wednesday into Thursday. As this system exits, it assists in ridging building into the Great Lakes on Thursday and allows for warming temperatures through the end of the week.

MH

AVIATION
(Issued 1004 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023)

MVFR to IFR ceilings will continue to expand north and west over the next couple of hours until all of southern Wisconsin is under the cloud deck. These mid to low level clouds are expected to persist through the period. Cigs are expected to drop below 1 kft overnight across far southeastern Wisconsin. A few areas may see sporadic LIFR ceilings. Rain and snow is gradually moving east out of southern Wisconsin. Far eastern terminals can expect the precipitation to continue for the next couple of hours.
Visibilities with the rain and snow will range from 2-5 SM. Once the precip has ended, visibilities will return to 10SM. The lower visibilities are expected to return early Saturday morning as patchy fog develops. North winds will weaken overnight becoming easterly Saturday afternoon.

Patterson

MARINE
(Issued 307 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023)

Modest to brisk northeast winds will continue over the lake tonight as low pressure around 29.8 inches tracks from central Illinois to Lake Erie. Light to modest east winds will then prevail for Saturday into Saturday night, as another weak low pressure area tracks from the Great Plains to around far southern Lake Michigan by Sunday morning. After the low passes, modest north to northwest winds will develop over the lake for late Sunday into Monday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until midnight for persistent nely winds of 15 to 20 kt and waves of 3 to 5 feet.

Gehring

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until midnight Saturday.

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