Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cape Neddick, ME
May 17, 2024 7:40 PM EDT (23:40 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:15 AM Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 2:14 PM Moonset 2:42 AM |
ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 323 Pm Edt Fri May 17 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 am edt Saturday through Sunday morning - .
Tonight - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: se 5 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog late this evening and overnight. Isolated showers after midnight. Scattered showers late. Vsby 1 nm or less late this evening and overnight.
Sat - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: se 5 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Scattered showers in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less in the morning.
Sat night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: E 5 ft at 9 seconds. Scattered showers.
Sun - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 5 ft at 8 seconds.
Sun night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 4 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Mon - NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
ANZ100 323 Pm Edt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm a slow moving area of low pressure passes east of the waters through Saturday night high pressure than gradually builds across the waters into early next week. Weak disturbances may pass near the waters mid- week, before a cold front approaches late week.
Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 172015 AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 415 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
A weak trough will approach northern areas this evening bringing scattered showers to the mountains. Low pressure moving up the East Coast will spread light showers into Maine and eastern New Hampshire Saturday. High pressure strengthens over the region early next week with dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Scattered showers return by late Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front approaches and then crosses the region.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Impacts: *No significant weather impacts expected
Many areas warmed well into the 70s today which has resulted in an expansive cumulus field over most of the area, the exception being the coast where the seabreeze has kept things more stable.
Current radar shows storms are starting to pop up in northern Somerset county and just over the International Border and I would still expect some to pop up in the Western Maine Mountains and northern New Hampshire before today's heating is done. A rumble of thunder with these is not out of the question as SPC mesoanalysis suggests upwards of 500 J/kg of surface based CAPE in that area. Otherwise, we will just be watching clouds increase as a trough approaches from the west, currently just getting into New York based on satellite. These increasing clouds should largely keep low temperatures in upper 40s and low 50s. As far as fog tonight, went with the persistence thinking as I don't see a reason that some patchy fog wouldn't develop in the valleys again tonight with winds light and low level moisture increasing. This will be especially true for the coast as an area of low pressure moves up the East Coast now looking close enough to push some decent moisture into the coastal plain, so kept marine fog in the forecast which may be able to push just inland into immediate coastal areas like Portland and Rockland, but not much further.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Impacts: * No significant weather impacts expected
Low pressure off at sea now looks like it will pass close enough to spread showers into Maine and eastern parts of New Hampshire. Unfortunately, 12Z guidance did not provide much more confidence in the probability of precipitation. We will certainly have clouds as we will be getting moisture advection from both sides with the trough moving in from the west and low pressure pushing it in from the east. Models do agree that this moisture being advected in from the low will drive PWATs up near 1.25". However, they greatly disagree on if we will actually get much rain out it. Mesoscale models have trended significantly wetter over Maine with just a few scattered showers backing into New Hampshire. Global models have continued to be unexcited and throw just a few light showers at the immediate coast. Due to this uncertainty, I continued with a middle of the road approach using the likely PoP coverage of the mesoscale models for coastal and interior areas as it seems like that will be the best chance to see at least some light showers. With that being said, I went very conservative with QPF, siding more with the global models, as the mesoscale models, that tend to over do it in these regimes, were spitting out 0.5" to 1" amounts across the Midcoast and interior. At this time it seems more likely that these will be lighter showers that would be more like .10" to 0.25" with the higher amounts being realized in those areas near the coast that see more numerous showers. High temperatures will likely only just get into the 60s away from the coast, with areas along the Connecticut River Valley standing the best chance to see higher temperatures in the upper 60s as they would be the first to see skies clearing as the low pressure system pulls away.
With subsidence behind the trough, its likely patchy fog will develop again Saturday night as areas clear out, especially in areas that saw rain. As a result, low temperatures look to only drop into the upper 40s and low 50s areawide.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Overview: Two main pressure systems will influence conditions over the area through the long term. First will be high pressure that maintains quiet weather overhead for the second half of the weekend and into early next week. Second is approaching low pressure and trough that could bring a round of widespread rainfall to the area as well as the chance for some thunderstorms into midweek. Temperatures are forecast to rise for early in the week, perhaps by 10 to 15 degrees above normal for southern portions of the area.
Details: Ridging sits over the area Sunday with more stable conditions. While precipitation isn’t expected, there will remain moisture in the low levels that is expected to leave much of the area cloudy. Can’t rule out drizzle considering some of the profiles looking saturated in the low levels, but any sort of lift is limited as well. Will hold off on drizzle wording for now, but would expect at least some patchy drizzle into the morning and perhaps again in the evening. These conditions will leave temperatures mild, but went slightly lower than the mean considering the chance for cloud cover. Some breaks will be possible on western side of the mountains, particularly in the afternoon, so left expected highs here closer to the mean (upper 60s to around 70). With clouds expected to remain overnight, lows are also mild falling to around 50.
Moisture layer will have thinned by the time Monday rolls around, and currently forecast thinning clouds into the afternoon. This should be a good start to a warming trend for early next week with highs pushing into the mid to upper 70s.
The warmer temps aren’t expected until Tuesday/Wednesday when return flow from exiting high really combines to push 850mb temps above 10C.
Well above normal temperatures are possible Tuesday and Wednesday next week. The area will be in between weather systems, with high pressure sliding east and incoming trough from the west. This should emphasize SW flow through much of the column, resulting in good WAA. This would mean temps pushing into the 80s for at least southern areas. NBM probabilities hint at temps perhaps exceeding 85 degrees up the CT River Valley and interior southern NH, but areal extent outside of those locations isn’t consistent.
Another topic for mid week will be the return of forcing, moisture, and instability. Surface low pressure is forecast to track up towards James Bay by Wednesday night, with an associated warm front lifting through the region and cold front exiting the eastern Great Lakes. This will create some favorable conditions for rounds of showers, but also some thunder. There remains differences in guidance to hone in on exact timing/impacts, but can say the environment will be more unsettled here especially on the heels of the warm/hot conditions. The front should pass off the coastal waters towards Friday morning, with slightly cooler temps into next weekend.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Short Term...Mainly VFR this evening with some localized restrictions in fog at valley terminals and possibly coastal terminals as well. Fog will dissipate Saturday morning, but ceilings will also be lowering so improvements may only be made to MVFR. This will be the case through the day Saturday before skies clear again overnight Saturday. Again there will be a chance for localized fog, but ceilings will be trending toward VFR for Sunday.
Long Term...Ceiling restrictions expected Sunday, with mainly MVFR and some IFR for much of the area. These remain overnight into Monday morning, but begin to improve towards VFR into the afternoon. Low confidence in fog/vis restrictions at this time, but can't rule out drizzle Sunday. VFR conditions Tues into Wed, perhaps some overnight valley fog.
MARINE
Short Term...SCA conditions begin to develop tonight as low pressure moving over the eastern waters pushes 5 ft swell into the area with winds not exceeding criteria. These elevated seas look to last through Saturday night and begin subsiding Sunday morning. Winds will be primarily northeasterly through this period with gusts around 15-20 kts.
Long Term...Wave heights remain around 5ft Sunday, but will be decreasing overnight into Monday as high pressure takes up residence. This should lead to sub-SCA impacts to wind/waves, but could also see some fog over water develop as warmer temperatures enter the region into early next week.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 10 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ150-152-154.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 415 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
A weak trough will approach northern areas this evening bringing scattered showers to the mountains. Low pressure moving up the East Coast will spread light showers into Maine and eastern New Hampshire Saturday. High pressure strengthens over the region early next week with dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Scattered showers return by late Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front approaches and then crosses the region.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Impacts: *No significant weather impacts expected
Many areas warmed well into the 70s today which has resulted in an expansive cumulus field over most of the area, the exception being the coast where the seabreeze has kept things more stable.
Current radar shows storms are starting to pop up in northern Somerset county and just over the International Border and I would still expect some to pop up in the Western Maine Mountains and northern New Hampshire before today's heating is done. A rumble of thunder with these is not out of the question as SPC mesoanalysis suggests upwards of 500 J/kg of surface based CAPE in that area. Otherwise, we will just be watching clouds increase as a trough approaches from the west, currently just getting into New York based on satellite. These increasing clouds should largely keep low temperatures in upper 40s and low 50s. As far as fog tonight, went with the persistence thinking as I don't see a reason that some patchy fog wouldn't develop in the valleys again tonight with winds light and low level moisture increasing. This will be especially true for the coast as an area of low pressure moves up the East Coast now looking close enough to push some decent moisture into the coastal plain, so kept marine fog in the forecast which may be able to push just inland into immediate coastal areas like Portland and Rockland, but not much further.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Impacts: * No significant weather impacts expected
Low pressure off at sea now looks like it will pass close enough to spread showers into Maine and eastern parts of New Hampshire. Unfortunately, 12Z guidance did not provide much more confidence in the probability of precipitation. We will certainly have clouds as we will be getting moisture advection from both sides with the trough moving in from the west and low pressure pushing it in from the east. Models do agree that this moisture being advected in from the low will drive PWATs up near 1.25". However, they greatly disagree on if we will actually get much rain out it. Mesoscale models have trended significantly wetter over Maine with just a few scattered showers backing into New Hampshire. Global models have continued to be unexcited and throw just a few light showers at the immediate coast. Due to this uncertainty, I continued with a middle of the road approach using the likely PoP coverage of the mesoscale models for coastal and interior areas as it seems like that will be the best chance to see at least some light showers. With that being said, I went very conservative with QPF, siding more with the global models, as the mesoscale models, that tend to over do it in these regimes, were spitting out 0.5" to 1" amounts across the Midcoast and interior. At this time it seems more likely that these will be lighter showers that would be more like .10" to 0.25" with the higher amounts being realized in those areas near the coast that see more numerous showers. High temperatures will likely only just get into the 60s away from the coast, with areas along the Connecticut River Valley standing the best chance to see higher temperatures in the upper 60s as they would be the first to see skies clearing as the low pressure system pulls away.
With subsidence behind the trough, its likely patchy fog will develop again Saturday night as areas clear out, especially in areas that saw rain. As a result, low temperatures look to only drop into the upper 40s and low 50s areawide.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Overview: Two main pressure systems will influence conditions over the area through the long term. First will be high pressure that maintains quiet weather overhead for the second half of the weekend and into early next week. Second is approaching low pressure and trough that could bring a round of widespread rainfall to the area as well as the chance for some thunderstorms into midweek. Temperatures are forecast to rise for early in the week, perhaps by 10 to 15 degrees above normal for southern portions of the area.
Details: Ridging sits over the area Sunday with more stable conditions. While precipitation isn’t expected, there will remain moisture in the low levels that is expected to leave much of the area cloudy. Can’t rule out drizzle considering some of the profiles looking saturated in the low levels, but any sort of lift is limited as well. Will hold off on drizzle wording for now, but would expect at least some patchy drizzle into the morning and perhaps again in the evening. These conditions will leave temperatures mild, but went slightly lower than the mean considering the chance for cloud cover. Some breaks will be possible on western side of the mountains, particularly in the afternoon, so left expected highs here closer to the mean (upper 60s to around 70). With clouds expected to remain overnight, lows are also mild falling to around 50.
Moisture layer will have thinned by the time Monday rolls around, and currently forecast thinning clouds into the afternoon. This should be a good start to a warming trend for early next week with highs pushing into the mid to upper 70s.
The warmer temps aren’t expected until Tuesday/Wednesday when return flow from exiting high really combines to push 850mb temps above 10C.
Well above normal temperatures are possible Tuesday and Wednesday next week. The area will be in between weather systems, with high pressure sliding east and incoming trough from the west. This should emphasize SW flow through much of the column, resulting in good WAA. This would mean temps pushing into the 80s for at least southern areas. NBM probabilities hint at temps perhaps exceeding 85 degrees up the CT River Valley and interior southern NH, but areal extent outside of those locations isn’t consistent.
Another topic for mid week will be the return of forcing, moisture, and instability. Surface low pressure is forecast to track up towards James Bay by Wednesday night, with an associated warm front lifting through the region and cold front exiting the eastern Great Lakes. This will create some favorable conditions for rounds of showers, but also some thunder. There remains differences in guidance to hone in on exact timing/impacts, but can say the environment will be more unsettled here especially on the heels of the warm/hot conditions. The front should pass off the coastal waters towards Friday morning, with slightly cooler temps into next weekend.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Short Term...Mainly VFR this evening with some localized restrictions in fog at valley terminals and possibly coastal terminals as well. Fog will dissipate Saturday morning, but ceilings will also be lowering so improvements may only be made to MVFR. This will be the case through the day Saturday before skies clear again overnight Saturday. Again there will be a chance for localized fog, but ceilings will be trending toward VFR for Sunday.
Long Term...Ceiling restrictions expected Sunday, with mainly MVFR and some IFR for much of the area. These remain overnight into Monday morning, but begin to improve towards VFR into the afternoon. Low confidence in fog/vis restrictions at this time, but can't rule out drizzle Sunday. VFR conditions Tues into Wed, perhaps some overnight valley fog.
MARINE
Short Term...SCA conditions begin to develop tonight as low pressure moving over the eastern waters pushes 5 ft swell into the area with winds not exceeding criteria. These elevated seas look to last through Saturday night and begin subsiding Sunday morning. Winds will be primarily northeasterly through this period with gusts around 15-20 kts.
Long Term...Wave heights remain around 5ft Sunday, but will be decreasing overnight into Monday as high pressure takes up residence. This should lead to sub-SCA impacts to wind/waves, but could also see some fog over water develop as warmer temperatures enter the region into early next week.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 10 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ150-152-154.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf | 9 mi | 96 min | NE 7.8G | 54°F | 55°F | 4 ft | 30.01 | |
| SEIM1 | 10 mi | 52 min | 61°F | 54°F | 30.04 | 52°F | ||
| WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME | 12 mi | 100 min | ENE 2.9 | 58°F | 53°F | |||
| IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH | 13 mi | 40 min | NE 11G | 54°F | 30.00 | 50°F | ||
| BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH | 15 mi | 115 min | ENE 4.1 | 60°F | 30.04 | 51°F | ||
| 44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) | 33 mi | 44 min | 53°F | 4 ft | ||||
| 44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME | 35 mi | 40 min | NE 3.9G | 51°F | 50°F | 30.03 | 49°F | |
| CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME | 39 mi | 52 min | 0G | 54°F | 51°F | 30.01 | ||
| 44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen | 44 mi | 96 min | NNE 12G | 54°F | 52°F | 4 ft | 30.01 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPSM PORTSMOUTH INTL AT PEASE,NH | 13 sm | 45 min | N 04 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 61°F | 50°F | 68% | 30.01 | |
| KSFM SANFORD SEACOAST RGNL,ME | 17 sm | 44 min | E 03 | 10 sm | Overcast | 61°F | 52°F | 72% | 30.03 | |
| KDAW SKYHAVEN,NH | 20 sm | 49 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 63°F | 52°F | 68% | 30.02 |
York Harbor
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:29 AM EDT 1.91 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:43 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 05:16 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 07:29 AM EDT 7.93 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:58 PM EDT 1.43 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:14 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 08:02 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 08:06 PM EDT 7.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:29 AM EDT 1.91 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:43 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 05:16 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 07:29 AM EDT 7.93 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:58 PM EDT 1.43 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:14 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 08:02 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 08:06 PM EDT 7.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
York Harbor, Maine, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.6 |
| 1 am |
| 2 |
| 2 am |
| 2 |
| 3 am |
| 2.8 |
| 4 am |
| 4.3 |
| 5 am |
| 5.9 |
| 6 am |
| 7.1 |
| 7 am |
| 7.8 |
| 8 am |
| 7.8 |
| 9 am |
| 7.1 |
| 10 am |
| 5.7 |
| 11 am |
| 4.1 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 4.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 6.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 7.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 8 |
| 9 pm |
| 7.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 6.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 5.1 |
Portsmouth Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:43 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 03:22 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:57 AM EDT 0.60 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:16 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 08:49 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:43 AM EDT -1.49 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:14 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 03:45 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:35 PM EDT 0.76 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:58 PM EDT 0.69 knots Min Flood
Fri -- 07:44 PM EDT 0.71 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:02 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 09:38 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:43 AM EDT Moonset
Fri -- 03:22 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:57 AM EDT 0.60 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:16 AM EDT Sunrise
Fri -- 08:49 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:43 AM EDT -1.49 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:14 PM EDT Moonrise
Fri -- 03:45 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:35 PM EDT 0.76 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:58 PM EDT 0.69 knots Min Flood
Fri -- 07:44 PM EDT 0.71 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:02 PM EDT Sunset
Fri -- 09:38 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Portsmouth Harbor Entrance, New Hampshire Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -1.2 |
| 1 am |
| -1.2 |
| 2 am |
| -0.9 |
| 3 am |
| -0.3 |
| 4 am |
| 0.4 |
| 5 am |
| 0.6 |
| 6 am |
| 0.5 |
| 7 am |
| 0.4 |
| 8 am |
| 0.4 |
| 9 am |
| -0.1 |
| 10 am |
| -0.9 |
| 11 am |
| -1.4 |
| 12 pm |
| -1.5 |
| 1 pm |
| -1.4 |
| 2 pm |
| -1.2 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 10 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 11 pm |
| -1 |
Portland, ME,
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