Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Newport, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/

UPDATE
No significant changes with this update. Lowered min temperatures a few degrees in some areas (mainly Adirondacks)
based on current obs/trends.

.PREV DISCUSSION[0726]...Beautiful spring day continues across eastern NY and western New England today with a ~1028hPa high centered in the mid- Atlantic and upper level centered over western NY sliding east. Outside of some innocuous cirrus clouds spilling over top the incoming ridge, plenty of sunshine continues. Given the very dry mass sampled by the 12 UTC ALY sounding today (PWATs ~0.25"), dew points have trended lower into the 30s and we incorporated the NBM 5th percentile guidance to better reflect current conditions. The very dry air mass and efficient boundary layer mixing up to 800hPa seen on forecast soundings will support warm spring temperatures today and we leaned on the warmer side of the guidance envelop as probabilistic guidance shows 20 - 40% chance for high temperatures to exceed 74 degrees from the Capital Region southward into the mid-Hudson Valley.

Mainly clear skies tonight as some cirrus clouds continue to spill overhead. Winds remain mainly light overnight but could turn a bit stronger towards 09 - 12 UTC as the pressure gradient ahead of the incoming boundary tightens. Given warmer daytime temperatures and a slight breeze developing later tonight, overnight lows will not be quite as cool as this morning.
Expecting most to only fall into the mid to upper 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
Key Messages:

- The Storm Prediction Center maintains its slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms mainly north and west of the Capital District tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening with damaging winds (15-29% chance) the primary hazard.

Discussion:

A very potent shortwave that will be responsible for severe weather in the Upper Midwest will be lifting northward into the Great Lakes and southern Ontario tomorrow afternoon into the evening. With a strong area of high pressure positioned off the Mid-Atlantic coast, an intense southwesterly low and mid-level jet with winds 40 - 60kts will be directed into the Ohio Valley and western NY. This jet will funnel a very warm and moist airmass into the Northeast with temperatures likely reaching well into the 70s to even around 80 in valley areas (greater than 75% chance for highs to exceed 75 degrees for valley areas)
tomorrow afternoon as dew points climb into the 50s. While very strong height falls will spread downwind of the approaching shortwave, the strongest forcing looks displaced to our west during peak heating hours and is favored over western NY/PA and Ohio coinciding with SPC's enhanced risk zone. However, as morning sun allows the boundary layer to become well-mixed, deterministic guidance suggest mid- level lapse rates steepen to 6 - 6.5C/km with locally steeper values even up to 7C/km.
Forecast soundings do show a mid-level cap which could limit just how much surface based instability can generate and guidance shows generally under 1000 J/kg of SB cape with 200 - 500 J/kg of MU CAPE. On the other hand, deep layer shear values are quite impressive with 0-6km shear values reaching 40 to 50kts with potentially up to 60kts in the western/southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley as the trough approaches late PM/evening. This corroborates with SPC's slight risk (level 2 to 5). Needless to say, this is certainly a high shear low CAPE environment and as the sfc trough approaches by 18 - 21 UTC tomorrow afternoon, we will have to watch for a broken QLCS moving eastward out of western NY towards our western/southern Adirondack and western Mohawk Valley areas.
Despite limited instability, the strong forcing for ascent could very well carry the QLCS eastward into western zones by late afternoon and despite it entering into a less unstable environment, its momentum could still allow it to survive and produce damaging wind gusts. While the 12 UTC HRRR was less convinced with the eastward extent of the QLCS, the 18 UTC run is more concerning and suggests the line could even extend as far east as the Capital District by 21 - 00 UTC. Given DCAPE values 500 - 700 J/kg and the anticipated linear storm mode, damaging winds will be the primary hazard should any line/bowing segments march eastward towards the Hudson River. Locally heavy downpours are also likely during any thunderstorms as PWATs surge towards 1 - 1.25" ahead of the boundary.

After 00 UTC/Thurs, the line likely weakens further as it heads towards western New England and an even less favorable environment. We maintained shower chances for much of the region through Midnight as the true cold front finally pushes through.
Winds shift to the northwest behind the front by the pre-dawn hours and likely turns gusty with winds up to 25-30mph.

High pressure and a very dry air mass quickly builds into the Northeast on Wednesday providing us with plenty of sunshine once again. West to northwest remain gusty (gusts 25-30mph), especially in the morning, in the wake of the cold front and given much lower PWATs/relative humidity values, we will have favorable conditions for fire spread. See our fire weather discussion for more details. Otherwise, temperatures turn cooler with daytime highs only rising into the 60s to around 70 in the mid-Hudson Valley. We turn cool Wed night given favorable radiational cooling and a very dry air mass with overnight lows dropping into the mid to upper 30s with around 40 in the valley. Freezing temperatures possible in the southern Adirondacks.

Increasing clouds expected through the day on Thursday in response to warm air advection ahead of an approaching warm front. Chances for showers mainly hold off until after dark when the stronger isentropic lift arrives. Otherwise, daytime high similar to Wednesday only rising into the mid to upper 60s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Key Message:

- Showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible Thursday night and again Friday afternoon.

Discussion: Long term period begins at 00z Friday with dry conditions for most areas but a surface low associated with an upper shortwave will track through the Great Lakes region overnight. So, the system's warm front will lift north through our region overnight, bringing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms with BUFKIT forecast soundings showing some pockets of elevated instability. With warm advection and cloudy skies, lows will be fairly mild, mainly in the 40s to 50s. On Friday, the surface low tracks north of the region, putting us squarely in the warm sector.
We will see a lull in precip for at least Friday morning, with temperatures warming well into the 70s for many areas with some low 80s possible for valley areas south of I-90. Then, during the afternoon or evening, the trailing cold front will tracks through our region bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Coverage and strength of any thunderstorms will depend on the timing of the frontal passage and the amount of instability available, which will hopefully come into better focus over the coming days. Showers and thunderstorms will taper off after sunset, with temperatures dropping into the 40s to 50s again for overnight lows.

Saturday through Sunday night...The aforementioned cold front stalls to the south and east of our region Saturday, and another upper trough tracks eastwards. Ahead of the upper trough, surface cyclogenesis occurs along the baroclinic zone. As the surface low tracks northeastwards, it will likely bring showers to portions of the region Saturday into Saturday night. At this time, the highest likelihood of rain/showers seems to be for eastern areas, but this till ultimately depend on where the front stalls and the track of the surface low along that boundary. With the cooler airmass and clouds/showers around, Saturday will be much cooler with highs ranging from 50s in the high terrain to 60s in the valleys. Lows Saturday night will be in the 30s to 40s. We finally dry out for the second half of the weekend, although the upper trough and cold pool aloft remain nearby, so Sunday will feature near to slightly below normal temperatures with highs again mainly in the 50s to 60s. Lows Sunday night will again be in the 30s to 40s.

AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 00z Wednesday...VFR conditions expected to prevail through much of the 24 hour TAF period with gradually increasing high level cirrus clouds. Added mention of PROB30 for TSRA starting at 21z Tuesday for KGFL and 23z at KALB, as some storms could approach those terminals late Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening ahead of a cold front. Winds will be southerly around 3-6 through tonight, increasing to 13-17 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt on Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Breezy
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.

FIRE WEATHER
After a cold front pushes through the region tomorrow into tomorrow night resulting in showers and areas of thunderstorms, high pressure and a very dry air mass moves overhead for Wednesday. This will result in low relative humidity values ranging 20 to 30 percent with gusty west to northwest ranging 25 to 30mph. Such conditions can elevate the risk for fire spread.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.