Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sylvan Beach, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 4:31PM Thursday December 12, 2019 12:22 AM EST (05:22 UTC) Moonrise 5:04PMMoonset 7:42AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 658 Pm Est Wed Dec 11 2019
.gale warning in effect until 1 am est Thursday...
Tonight..West gales to 35 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect snow showers. Waves 11 to 15 feet subsiding to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 19 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Snow showers in the morning. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Rain during the day, then rain showers Saturday night. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely with a chance of snow showers during the day, then a chance of snow showers Sunday night. Waves 6 to 9 feet building to 8 to 11 feet, then subsiding to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers Monday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
LOZ044 Expires:201912120415;;212178 FZUS51 KBUF 112358 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 658 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-120415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sylvan Beach, NY
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location: 43.17, -75.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 120254 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 954 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

SYNOPSIS. Lake effect snow showers and isolated squalls will be over the area this evening. The snow will continue across the NY Thruway corridor tonight, followed by dry weather for Thursday. Another system will bring in rain for Friday night into Saturday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/.

955 PM UPDATE .

Have cancelled the Advisory as the band has really fallen apart to mainly light snow showers, and none of the CAM models show it restrengthening in this environment.

843 PM UPDATE .

Lake effect bands continue to weaken as they move away from the lakes. Models continue this trend through the evening, even with the Ontario band that hangs tougher near the lake shore and into Oneida county. Made some adjustments to the intensity and location of the bands guided buy the radar trends and model forecasts.

230 pm update .

A decent December afternoon occurring. With the mainly clear skies over much of the CWA pushed temperatures up several degrees. Winds have increased from the southwest to 10 kts with higher gusts. Clouds have pushed east into the northwest counties ahead a weak front and upper level short wave. The bands of snow off of Lakes Erie and Ontario will shift south into the area late this afternoon. The band off of Lake Erie will become detached from the lake and move in with the front. With the instability and frontogenesis and few heavier snow showers should make it into the Finger Lakes between 4 and 9 PM. As it moves into south central NY it will weaken to flurries. The Finger Lakes could get up to a quick inch of snow. At about the same time the band off of Lake Ontario will shift south into northern Oneida County. The low level flow shifts to 290 this evening. This flow will continue late tonight then lift north late Thursday morning. Temperature differences are good but the moisture is shallow. Snow forecast remains at 3 to 6 inches with the most in northwest Oneida County. The winter weather advisory continues for this afternoon into early Thursday morning. Low temperatures this morning from around 10 to around 15.

Thursday morning high pressure with dry air will move into the area. Morning sunshine will give way to clouds as the high moves quickly east. Moisture will be mostly in the form of mid and high clouds. No precipitation for Thursday and Thursday night, outside of lake band Thursday morning. In addition, warm air advection will start again with deep southwest flow. High temperatures Thursday in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Thursday night will be warmer with lows mostly in the 20s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Friday begins quiet as drier air likely keeps any chances of precipitation south of the area. However, this will be short- lived as a strengthening area of low pressure will approach the area, either riding along the east coast or a bit further inland over portions of our area. The 12Z ECMWF and NAM continues to lean towards a further inland solution, while the 12Z GFS and Canadian are a a bit further east, closer to the coast. While ultimately the results would be similar regardless of exact track (a steady rainfall to the area), this difference continues to cause some uncertainty in the exact form of precipitation at the onset on Friday before any mix changes to all rain. There continues to be the possibility of precipitation to start as some light freezing rain late Friday morning/early afternoon in portions of the Catskills, Poconos, and possibly Oneida county, before changing to rain. That being said, the bulk of the precipitation looks to hold off until later in the afternoon and especially Friday night and by then, the entire area should be just rain as temperatures will be above freezing. Highs Friday will likely be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Rain overspreads the area Friday night and continues through Saturday and into Saturday night as the low pressure system moves through the area. Rainfall amounts look to be around the one inch range for the majority of the area, with some locally higher amounts possible.

Cold air advection begins to change the rain to snow Saturday night, especially at higher elevations (mix of rain and snow at the lower elevations). There could be some snow accumulation especially in parts of Central New York. By the second half of the night/early Sunday, the precipitation transitions from synoptic to lake effect/enhanced, although becoming more showery in nature rather than widespread precipitation. Temperatures Friday night will likely be rising from the 30s to the lower 40s by daybreak. Highs on Saturday will likely be in the lower to upper 40s. Then lows likely getting down to the upper 20s to mid 30s Saturday night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. 215 PM Update:

The long term forecast remains on track and no changes were made. The previous discussion remains valid.

Previous Discussion:

Colder air wraps back across the area during the second half of the weekend into early next week, with snow showers perhaps mixed with rain showers at times. Another system may then move into the area by next Monday night-Tuesday.

With our active pattern continuing unabated, a brief brief Monday appears likely to give away to another system advancing out of our southwest Monday night or Tuesday. While models all generally have the system, they differ considerably on track and strength of the associated wave/low. Right now, odds favor some sort of all snow, to snow/mix scenario. There could be some accumulations with this, but things could easily change considering it is still about a week out; we will sort it out in coming days.

AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. General VFR conditions are expected for the period. Exception will be in lake effect snow, mainly at RME but also briefly at SYR, ITH, and BGM where you can see short periods of IFR conditions. Gusty northwest winds will become lighter overnight as the lake effect weakens.

Outlook . Thursday afternoon through Friday morning . VFR.

Friday afternoon . VFR to start, then rain moves in late with possible restrictions.

Friday night through Sunday . Restrictions likely in periods of rain through Saturday then rain and snow showers on Sunday.

Monday . VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . DGM/TAC NEAR TERM . DGM/TAC SHORT TERM . BJG LONG TERM . BJG/MDP AVIATION . DGM/TAC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 42 mi53 min W 27 G 35 1032.3 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 94 mi83 min W 11 G 17 22°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 96 mi53 min 21°F 1033.2 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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NW14
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY16 mi29 minW 14 G 229.00 miLight Snow23°F9°F55%1033.1 hPa
Griffiss Air Force Base / Rome, NY22 mi30 minW 81.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist21°F21°F100%1033.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8N8N6NW4CalmE3CalmSE5S6S9S11SW13SW13SW18
G29
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1 day agoS9S8S6SW7SW8SW11W9SW12W13NW13NW13NW11W9W14W12W14
G18
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W14NW11NW11NW10NW13W6NW8
2 days agoS9
G18
S10S9S8SE5E6SE8SE11SE10SE11SE7SE7SE5SE7SE9SE5S11
G19
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S8S9S13S10S10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.