Sunrise 6:01 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM Moonrise 11:27 PM   Moonset 6:48 AM

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LOZ044 Expires:202404280315;;481869 Fzus51 Kbuf 272009 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 409 pm edt Sat apr 27 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-280315- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 409 pm edt Sat apr 27 2024
Tonight - South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Showers early, then a chance of showers from late evening on. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less. Sunday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday night - West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Monday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday - East winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 271949 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 349 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front swings through the region on Sunday bringing a chance of rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. Temperatures trend much warmer Sunday into most of next week. A weak front will bring more rain showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

330 PM Update

Main concern in this period will be the potential for scattered surface based thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening; a few could potentially be strong, with gusty winds and/or small hail.

Light rain is spreading over the region late this afternoon as expected and temperatures are falling back into the 40s where the steady rain has developed. The elevated instability and slight chance for thunderstorms doesn't arrive in the northern Finger Lakes to Syracuse metro area until around or after sunset this evening. Forecast soundings from the 12z NAM have backed off on instability some, but are still showing perhaps a few hundred Joules/Kg of elevated CAPE overnight. Used NBM PotThunder data, but lowered it some. Otherwise, it will be mainly cloudy overnight with winds gradually diminishing. Lows range from the 40s to around 50.

Sunday morning starts off mainly dry/quiet with the surface warm front lifting north from the Twin Tiers to near I-90 by late morning. The front looks to stall and have a hard time moving north of the Syracuse--Utica--Rome area through the day. This will keep more clouds, showers and lower temperatures up here.

Further south across the Twin Tiers, Catskills and NE PA showers and scattered thunderstorms are still expected, especially in the afternoon and evening hours, with the 12z guidance continuing to show around 400-900 J/kg of MLCAPE over the southern half of the CWA in the afternoon. PoPs were bumped up into the likely range for Sunday, but it will not be an all day washout. Deep layer shear is up to around 40kts in the 0-6km layer, so if enough instability does indeed develop a few storms could become stronger and better organized. SPC only has general thunder over our area, but in their outlook discussion they mentioned a few storms could produce gusty winds or small hail. Will mention this potential in the HWO for now. Confidence is low on just how much instability will be present by the afternoon...considering some showers and clouds along the aforementioned warm front. Overall, it will be much warmer, with highs in the 70s for most locations...except 65-70 along and north of I-90. Outside of the showers and t'storms it will be partly sunny, and it will not be a washout. Surface winds turn southwest as the front lifts north, at 5-10 mph. Again, guidance is showing Utica/Rome staying locked in with an east wind on the north side of the front all day.

Any evening convection dissipates heading into Sunday night. Mid level ridging tries to develop over the area, but yet another wave will ride along the top of the ridge and stalled surface boundary in CNY. Much cooler, more stable air will be located north of the front, which may sag south a bit overnight toward the Route US-20 corridor. Overall, shower chances diminish overnight, with it remaining partly to mostly cloudy. Mild with lows in the 50s for the area.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A ridge sitting overt the area will be the main weather drive Monday, bringing warm temperatures across the region. The upper ridge extends into eastern Canada, generating a pretty strong high pressure system centered to our NNE. The NE flow from this system will butt up against the surface ridge over the Mid- Atlantic. Models continue the trend of keeping the warmest air under the ridge to our south, with the stronger high to our north. This places a frontal boundary over the Twin Tiers through the day on Monday. Some instability looks to develop across the western Southern Tier into NEPA along the front, with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms forming along the edge of the ridge centered to our south, riding the warm front from NW to SE across the Twin Tiers. Temperatures will be in the low 70s north of the Southern Tier, with upper 70s to low 80s across the Twin Tiers.

The ridge axis drifts eastward through Monday evening and overnight as a trough moves into the Great Lakes. Increased moisture and lift associated with the trough should develop rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the area, with areas north of the Southern Tier having the best chance for showers through the overnight hours. Temperatures will be warm thanks to continued WAA around the top of the ridge, with temps only falling into the upper 50s.

Tuesday will see a chance for thunderstorms, some having the chance to be severe as the ridge exits and we get enhanced lift from the trough and approaching cold front. CAPE values range in the 500-1000 j/kg range with 0-6km bulk shear between 25-35kts, although guidance is still a little muddled with the thunderstorm chance parameters. Severe chances will depend on timing of the front and how quickly the ridge breaks down Tuesday morning. We will be keeping an eye on the trends here over the next several model runs. Temps on Tuesday will climb into the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints in the low 60s.

Hydrologically, we could see some flooding issues with training storms will possible for a brief period in the afternoon as corfidi vectors shorten a bit, but the LLJ looks to be weak.
Warm cloud depth is shorter than you would like for enhanced chances of persistent heavy rain and PWATs are around 1.25in.
Rain showers Monday and Monday night could prime parts of the area that if another round of rain moves in Tuesday afternoon, we could see some isolated flooding issues.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Temperatures do not cool much behind the front as warm air quickly moves back into the region with a ridge sliding into the eastern US on Wednesday. Temps through the rest of the week will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s with warm overnight lows bottoming out in the low to mid 50s. Rain shower and thunderstorm chances return late in the week as another trough moves into the Great Lakes. Timing and strength of this feature is still uncertain as guidance solutions vary greatly at this point.

AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
130 PM Update

Lower end VFR conditions will continue for the next 1-2 hours with some light rain pushing in from the west. As the rain moistens up the lower level of the atmosphere MVFR/Fuel Alt ceilings restrictions are to develop at all of our terminals by late afternoon and evening . As showers settle in for the overnight, MVFR/Fuel Alt ceiling restrictions are expected to continue for most of the sites. IFR restrictions are possible heading into Sunday morning along a frontal boundary. The high probabilities for IFR should be at BGM, AVP and RME in the 09-15z Sunday morning timeframe. After 15-16z the front quickly lifts north as a warm front, with winds turning southwesterly.
This will quickly scatter and lift CIGs back to MVFR, and VFR by midday from ITH south to ELM, BGM and AVP. SYR and RME has CIG restrictions linger the longest on Sunday as the front may stall in their vicinity. Will have to watch for scattered thunderstorms mainly after 18z Sunday afternoon as well.

Gusty southerly winds up to 25 knots accompany these showers. LLWS is possible at ELM/ITH mainly between 05-10z early Sunday morning. Surface winds turn southwesterly 5 to 10 kts after the frontal passage Sunday morning or midday.

Outlook...

Sunday Afternoon and Sunday night...Sct'd thunderstorms possible; especially ITH, ELM, BGM and AVP. CIGs drop back to MVFR Fuel Alt and/or IFR overnight (except AVP stays VFR).

Monday...Lingering Ceiling restrictions in the morning, gradually scattering and becoming VFR by afternoon. Low chance for an isolated shower or t'storm.

Tuesday...Restrictions likely in rain showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR; slight chance for a shower.

Thursday...VFR Likely.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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