Thursday, August22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sylvan Beach, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 7:58PM Thursday August 22, 2019 1:36 PM EDT (17:36 UTC) Moonrise 10:33PMMoonset 12:00PM Illumination 54% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 1025 Am Edt Thu Aug 22 2019
This afternoon..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Becoming partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Mainly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east 10 knots or less. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LOZ044 Expires:201908222115;;036355 FZUS51 KBUF 221425 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1025 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-222115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sylvan Beach, NY
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location: 43.17, -75.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 221718
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
118 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will cross the region today with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially for northeast
pennsylvania. Dry and cool canadian high pressure builds in
behind the front to end the week and lasts through the weekend.

Near term through Friday
Only minor changes to the forecast discussion from previous
below with the early afternoon update.

A frontal boundary is currently draped across southern ny and
far northern pa. A band of lower level stratus clouds is evident
along the frontal boundary itself and has been slow to burn off
into the early afternoon but will continue to do so throughout
the remainder of the day. Tds fall into the 50s by afternoon
across central ny, but remain in the mid to upper 60s across the
wyoming valley region. In northeast pa and the pa ny border
into sullivan and delaware counties showers and scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop during the
afternoon and lingering into the early evening hours. The best
chance of thunderstorms will be along and south of i-84 us 6.

Deep layer shear 40-50 kts will combine with the higher dew
points and more unstable air mass (mlcape 600-900 j kg) to
produce a few stronger or even isolated severe thunderstorms in
and around the wyoming valley poconos region. The main threats
will be locally strong, gusty winds and torrential downpours.

Spc has this portion of NE pa under a marginal risk for severe
t'storms and wpc has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall.

Mentioned this potential in the hwo ehwo products. Bumped
temperatures up a few degrees areawide today based on the latest
blended guidance. Now looking for high temperatures to reach
75-80 across cny, and low to mid-80s for NE pa. Breezy west-
northwest winds 8-15 mph expected.

Tonight: another wave rides along the slow moving frontal
boundary. This should bring additional periods of showers to ne
pa and the southern catskill. Still some model uncertainty on
just how far northwest this rain shield will make it. For now
have slight chance back to the i-88 corridor, then higher end
chance near scranton to monticello. NAM ec continue to be
further NW with this rain, while the GFS if further east. Will
all depend on where the frontal boundary ends up this evening.

Otherwise, it will be mainly dry across the rest of cny under
partly cloudy skies and light winds. Cooler with lows in the 50s.

Friday: perhaps a lingering shower in the early morning across
the far southeast. Otherwise a dry northwest flow takes hold of
the area. The much cooler air aloft (+8c at 850mb) could pick
up some lake moisture and will be upsloping into terrain of cny.

Model soundings show moisture trapped in the 850-925mb layer
through much of the morning and early afternoon hours across
cny. Am expecting sct to bkn strato-cumulus to develop and
cannot rule out an isolated shower. Northeast pa and sullivan
county ny should see a bit more sun, especially across the lower
elevations. Do expect the clouds to gradually scatter and even
dissipate late in the day as the low level moisture mixes out
and a surface ridge builds. Slightly breezy again, with NW winds
6-12 mph. Much cooler with highs 68-75 across ny, and low to
mid-70s in NE pa. This is about 5 degrees below average.

Short term Friday night through Sunday night
Friday night through Saturday night: high pressure will begin to
build in over the area, allowing for mostly clear skies with some
patchy valley fog possible late Friday night early Saturday morning.

Low temperatures Friday night are expected to be in the upper 40s to
mid 50s, with mid 40s expected in the higher elevations of the
catskills. Then mostly sunny conditions are expected for Saturday
with highs in the lower to mid 70s. Another mostly clear night is
expected Saturday night with lows mostly in the lower to mid 50s.

Sunday through Sunday night: a few showers will be possible east of
i-81 on on Sunday as an upper level low slowly meanders east of the
area. Despite these low chances of showers east, the majority of the
area will likely remain dry with mostly sunny skies. Highs on Sunday
will likely be in the lower to mid 70s. Then mostly dry conditions
expected Sunday night with just a slight chance of a shower in the
extreme southeastern portions of the area. Lows will likely be in
the lower to mid 50s.

Long term Monday through Wednesday
Overall, a mainly quiet period of weather is expected with weak
upper ridging developing. The main feature to track will be a cold
front that will likely move through either late Tuesday or sometime
on Wednesday. This will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms
to the area sometime during the above mentioned period, depending on
the timing of the front. It is worth noting that models have trended
a bit quicker with this front compared to prior runs. After the
passage of the front, mainly quiet weather will likely continue with
just a slight chance of seeing some additional showers on Thursday.

Temperatures will be on a bit of warming trend before the above
mentioned front moves through. It will be becoming increasing humid
as well. Highs will likely mostly be in the mid to upper 70s on
Monday, with upper 70s to lower 80s expected the remainder of the
period. Lows will likely be mostly in the 50s Monday night, with
upper 50s to lower 60s expected Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

Aviation 17z Thursday through Monday
MainlyVFR expected throughout the TAF period. The one exception
is potential for a thunderstorm or two at kavp late this
afternoon and early evening. Data is still divergent on the
exact time so a tempo group continues to be larger than ideal
trying to pin down the timing of any thunderstorm. Winds today
will be around 10 knots from the northwest with a higher gust
or two possible.

Vfr everywhere tonight and Friday morning with the exception of
morning ifr fog likely at kelm. Winds generally from the
northwest at or under 10 knots.

Outlook...

Friday night through Monday...VFR, except late night early
morning fog possible at kelm.

Monday night and Tuesday... VFR.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Mjm
near term... Mjm mwg
short term... Bjg
long term... Bjg
aviation... Mwg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 42 mi60 min W 16 G 20 70°F 1013.5 hPa57°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 94 mi36 min WNW 7 G 9.9 71°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 96 mi60 min 71°F 1013.4 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY16 mi42 minW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F55°F54%1013.2 hPa
Griffiss Air Force Base / Rome, NY22 mi43 minW 1010.00 miFair74°F57°F56%1012.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7N3CalmW6W6CalmE4E53--Calm--SW6SW6SW7--W9--W7W9W11W10W13W10
1 day agoW6W7W10--4S5NE5E5E5----------E4E3NE3NW5----CalmS3S3S3
2 days agoW8
G16
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--W8W9NW8W6W4W4SW4--------CalmCalm--CalmCalmW4--SW4CalmW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.