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LOZ044 Expires:202311282215;;547669 Fzus51 Kbuf 281444 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 944 am est Tue nov 28 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-282215- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 944 am est Tue nov 28 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Rest of today..West winds to 30 knots becoming northwest. Occasional lake effect snow with some rumbles of Thunder possible, then lake effect snow late. Waves 10 to 14 feet. Waves occasionally around 18 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds to 30 knots becoming west 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely in the evening, then lake effect snow overnight. Waves 9 to 12 feet subsiding to 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers in the evening, then a chance of rain and snow showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain showers during the day, then rain showers likely Thursday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds around 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of rain and snow showers Saturday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 47 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 282029 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 329 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
Lake effect snow showers will continue through tonight. The middle of the week will remain mostly dry with temperatures trending warmer. The next weather system will bring mainly rain to the area Friday into Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
230 PM Update

The lake effect snow has turned more cellular and into disorganized bands this afternoon, as an upper short wave pushes through. Behind the exiting shortwave, flow will turn northwesterly and a NW to SE oriented lake effect band should get organized across central NY and then lift northward later tonight. For now, have left headlines as is, but if this band doesn't get organized or progresses northward faster than expected, then the winter storm headlines will need to be downgraded. Have lowered snowfall amounts slightly with this update as well, but not enough to drop those warnings quite yet.

It will be cold and blustery overnight, with lows falling into the upper teens and lower 20s with minimum wind chills in the single digits.

For tomorrow, the lake effect will some to an end as a warm front pushes in and flow turns southwesterly. The warm front lifts through the area out ahead of a low pressure system passing well to the north across Canada, however the best isentropic lift will be north of our forecast area, so kept pops at slight to low chance north of the NYS thruway. It remains cold tomorrow, with highs only in the upper 20s to mid-30s and overnight lows in the low 20s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
320 PM Update...

After a few lingering lake effect snow showers over Oneida County Wednesday night, Thursday will be a pretty quiet day across the area with weak ridging and westerly flow becoming more west-southwest. This will lead to a warmer afternoon with temperatures returning to the low-to-mid 40s under a partly to mostly sunny sky. Lows Thursday night will range anywhere from the upper 20s and low 30s in the Catskills to the upper 30s around the Finger Lakes. Clouds will be build back in Thursday night in advance of a moisture starved cold front approaching from the northwest and a surface low and quick-moving shortwave coming up from the southwest. Looking at 850mb temperatures, this looks to be mostly a rain event Friday into Friday evening. Rainfall totals Friday into Friday night are expected to range between 0.25-0.50 of an inch. Highs Friday are expected to be in upper 30s and low 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
320 PM Update...

Saturday into next week is shaping up to be an unsettled period for the area. Another quick-moving shortwave is expected to move up from the southwest Saturday bringing a low chance of showers (30% or less) to the area to start the weekend. However, there is some uncertainty in the track of this disturbance whether it moves right overhead or passes by primarily to the north and west. A developing surface low over the Midwest Sunday looks to move over the Great Lakes later in the day and into Sunday night and tap into moisture from a low forming over the Southeast that treks northeastward. This would result in another round of moistly rain, but given uncertainty on the track and strength of these disturbances, chance PoPs (up to 50%), are in at this time for the end of the weekend.

The train of shortwave troughs looks to continue early next week keeping the chance of showers around during the day and rain/snow showers at night as temperatures fall. Highs Saturday through early next week are expected to be mainly in the 40s then and falling into the 30s at night.

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Lake effect snow will bring VLIFR restrictions this afternoon into this evening at RME and SYR. Elsewhere, confidence is lower, but snow showers will likely reduce visibility at times for ITH, ELM and BGM through this evening as well, but restrictions will be brief with just passing showers. Conditions will improve from south to north overnight with VFR conditions returning to all sites, however SYR and RME may not see ceilings lift above MVFR until Wednesday morning.

Winds will be gusty this afternoon out of the west, but will ease up after 0Z this evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday... mainly VFR; restrictions possible late in the day or at night with an approaching system and associated rain.

Saturday and Sunday...Possible restrictions due to rain showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ009- 018-036.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ017.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ037.

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