Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cato, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 7:58PM Friday August 23, 2019 6:52 AM EDT (10:52 UTC) Moonrise 11:10PMMoonset 1:07PM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 1031 Pm Edt Thu Aug 22 2019
Overnight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north. Mainly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ044 Expires:201908230915;;062322 FZUS51 KBUF 230231 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1031 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-230915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cato, NY
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location: 43.17, -76.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 230916
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
516 am edt Fri aug 23 2019

Synopsis
Aside from a few diurnally driven showers this afternoon and a few
lake enhanced showers south of lake ontario tonight into Saturday
morning, a comfortably cool and dry weather pattern will be over
western and central new york right through the weekend. There will
be some typical inland valley fog during the overnight and early
morning hours. The next chance of rain along with warmer weather
won't return until next Tuesday or Wednesday.

Near term through tonight
Clear to partly cloudy skies will remain over the majority of our
area through the first half of the morning. Valley fog continues to
fill in across the southern tier and black river valleys as seen on
the nighttime microphysics rgb satellite imagery.

Aside from leftover valley fog across the southern tier and black
river valleys through mid morning, high pressure will continue to
build across the area from the nw. Expect some morning sunshine,
followed by fairly rapid upslope induced inland stratocumulus.

Appears now that diurnal heating and just enough low level moisture
will combine with some added lift courtesy of a fairly sharp upper
trough just upstream, to possibly produce a few light
showers sprinkles this afternoon across the higher terrain south of
lake ontario. Otherwise, expect a dry and comfortably cool august
day with a mix of Sun and clouds elsewhere, with the most sunshine
seen across the lower terrain and along the lakeshores. High
temperatures will range from the upper 60s across the higher terrain
to the lower 70s elsewhere.

Tonight, a weak surface trough will push south across the lower
great lakes, with a reinforcing push of cooler air right behind it.

Winds will strengthen some and shift to north-northeasterly while
850mb temps drop a couple more degrees, bottoming out around +5c
overnight. Meanwhile, a fairly potent shortwave rotating through the
base of the mean upper trough will push south over the area. Despite
low level anticyclonic flow and dry air in the low levels, there may
be just enough lake enhanced moisture instability, that when
combined with the potent shortwave energy aloft, may produce a few
showers downwind of lake ontario on a north-northeasterly fetch. Any
showers would be mainly focused across the higher terrain of the
western finger lakes and the interior southern tier. Otherwise,
outside of the typical valley fog, expect a dry and quite cool night
elsewhere. Temperatures will indeed be chilly by latter august
standards. Lows will bottom out in the low to mid 40s across the
higher terrain, with lower to mid 50s elsewhere.

Short term Saturday through Monday night
Additional shortwave trough drifts across region on Saturday. This
wave along with residual low-level moisture and continual cool air
aloft and resulting over-water instability (h85 temps as low as
+4c in the morning) will allow for the any isolated light lake
effect showers that may develop tonight to persist into at least
mid morning Saturday before diminishing. Otherwise, the
residual moisture with daytime heating should result in
expansion of fair weather stratocu and CU late morning into the
afternoon especially over the southern tier and east of lake
ontario thanks to upslope nne flow. High pressure at sfc then
begins to build in during the afternoon which will diminish ne
winds closer to lake ontario. Should see high temps pretty
similar to values today, upper 60s higher terrain of southern
tier and east of lk ontario, with low 70s elsewhere. On Saturday
night, center of high pressure settles across southern quebec
to new brunswick and prince edward island. Light winds and dry
air tied to the high will allow another chilly night with some
fog for the valleys of the southern tier and for areas east of
lake ontario while mostly clear skies and temps in the mid 50s
should cover things elsewhere.

Into Sunday, as shortwave trough that drops across Saturday, slowly
exits off the east coast will begin to see light low-level return
flow develop. Looks like we'll gain a couple degrees at h85 compared
to Saturday, so should see aftn highs on Sunday rebound into the low
70s in the southern tier and east of lake ontario, to the upper 70s
elsewhere.

After a mostly clear and still seasonably cool night on Sunday
night, developing upper troughing from south central canada to the
western great lakes will aid in sfc troughing from northern plains
to the western great lakes. Monday should stay dry with a bit of
increase in mid to high clouds. By Monday night, there are
indications that shortwave drifting along base of primary trough
could be enhanced by convection and make its way toward the lower
great lakes overnight. Did not go as aggressive as GFS is in pushing
this feature into western ny, but have included low-end chances.

Better chances, at least through daybreak Tuesday, will probably
stay west closer to axis of elevated instability and stronger low-
level jet and upper-level jet. We'll solidly be within a stronger
sse return low-level flow Monday into Monday night as high heads out
over the atlantic and sfc troughing moves over western great lakes.

Majority of area will see highs upper 70s to near 80f on Monday
while lows on Monday night will stay warm in the 50s to lower 60s
with the stronger return flow. Only exception will be east of lake
ontario where readings could dip into toward 50f. Return flow could
turn gusty as pressure gradient tightens and pressure falls develop
north of region. Increased gusts some, especially closer to lake
ontario and lake erie.

Long term Tuesday through Thursday
Broad longwave trough over central canada will expand across the
great lakes and eastern canada. Sfc flow will increase from the ssw
into the lower great lakes Tuesday into Wednesday as main sfc low
spins over northern ontario toward the southern shore of hudson bay
sending a warm front across the lower great lakes into new england.

Expect temps to rise above normal with upper 70s to low 80s a good
landing point for now.

Details remain murky about convection Tuesday with main issue
focusing on how expansive convection will be along warm front. Gfs
continues to be more aggressive in eastward push of showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday, showing QPF as far east as areas east of
lake ontario, while ECMWF and canadian keep most of activity on
Tuesday over western ny closer to approaching strong sw-ne oriented
upper jet ahead of broad trough and also closer to axis of 1.75 to
2.0 inch pwats. Convective shortwave(s) riding into ny ahead of main
trough will have to be watched as it could boost pops earlier, but
going to go with slower idea from ECMWF and canadian given strength
of incoming trough which will tend to amplify mid-upper level flow
and keep most widespread precip closer to larger scale features.

As initial cold front moves through Tuesday night into Wednesday,
should be a greater chance of seeing widespread convection. Though
mid to upper level winds will be brisk from the sw, any convection
will have potential to produce heavy rain as pwats reach 2 inches
and wbzero heights rise toward 14kft. Though it is pretty far out to
hone in on the details, seems that greatest chances for showers and
storms on Wednesday will be over our eastern areas toward finger
lakes and east of lake ontario as cold front arrives there during
the afternoon during peak heating MAX instability. If that timing
holds and sufficient instability is present, there would be at least
some risk of stronger storms given strong wind fields present.

High pressure is then forecast to build across the region later
Wednesday into Thursday behind the cold front. This will encourage
the return of fair weather along with more comfortable humidity
levels.

Aviation 09z Friday through Tuesday
Clear to partly cloudy skies will remain over the majority of our
area through the first part of the morning. Excellent radiational
cooling has led to the typical fog formation across the valleys of
the southern tier, and even the black river valley. This may impact
kjhw through early to mid morning with a period of ifr MVFR vsby,
with the remainder of the area seeingVFR conditions.

Cold air aloft will promote efficient low level cloud development
today, especially across the higher terrain of the southern tier,
where lowVFR CIGS (isolated MVFR interior southern tier this
afternoon) will form. Expect few to scattered amounts of cloud
coverage over the remainder of the area through the afternoon.

Low level clouds will scatter out during the evening with the
loss of daytime heating, leaving mainlyVFR conditions across
the area through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Saturday through Monday... MainlyVFR with nothing more than southern
tier valley fog producing local ifr conditions each late night and
morning.

Tuesday... MVFR possible with showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
Expect some light chop on both lakes today before winds briefly
freshen out of the north-northeast later tonight through early
Saturday morning. This will bring another round of choppy conditions
on lake ontario, but again it looks like conditions will stay below
small craft advisory criteria. Gradient flow will relax some later
Saturday afternoon into Sunday as high pressure builds closer the
lakes. This will promote light winds and diminishing waves.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jm
near term... Jm
short term... Jla
long term... Jla
aviation... Jm
marine... Jm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 21 mi58 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 61°F 1016.3 hPa55°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 45 mi52 min N 12 G 14 64°F 72°F2 ft1016.8 hPa (+1.5)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 55 mi52 min NNE 7 G 8.9 67°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 56 mi58 min 67°F 1016.3 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY16 mi4 hrsN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy56°F53°F90%1015.3 hPa
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY24 mi4 hrsW 610.00 miA Few Clouds60°F54°F80%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----W7W9W6W8W13W10NW10NW7W8W6W7CalmCalm------Calm--Calm----Calm
1 day agoW9------SW3Calm3W4W5--4NW5CalmCalmCalmCalm--S4--S7SW3SW6--W5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalm--3SW4W6W53Calm----CalmCalmCalmSE3----------E3--3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.