Saturday, February27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cato, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:54PM Saturday February 27, 2021 4:18 AM EST (09:18 UTC) Moonrise 6:23PMMoonset 7:20AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202102271015;;697377 Fzus51 Kbuf 270252 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 952 Pm Est Fri Feb 26 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-271015- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 952 Pm Est Fri Feb 26 2021
Overnight..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming south. Rain likely late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Rain in the morning, then a chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A chance of rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day, then a chance of snow showers Monday night. Waves 4 to 7 feet building to 10 to 13 feet, then subsiding to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. The water temperature off rochester is 36 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cato, NY
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location: 43.17, -76.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 270905 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 405 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. A trough of low pressure will bring some rain and snow this morning, with any lingering showers tapering off this afternoon. A warm front will cross the region Sunday, bringing some light rain showers and warmer weather for end of the weekend. A strong cold front will move through on Monday, bringing snow showers and much colder weather for the first half of the work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A weak trough of low pressure will move across the region today, along with an associated cold/occluded front. This will bring a round of mainly rain, with some snow or sleet mixed in across the interior and east of Lake Ontario. The best axis of mid level warm air advection will pass to our south and east with mesoscale guidance showing the steadiest precipitation will be with the passage of the surface trough axis. For most areas this will produce roughly a 3-5 hour period of steady precipitation, with greatest QPF amounts (third of an inch) east of Lake Ontario due to upslope enhancement and the lightest amounts (less than a tenth inch) across the Genesee River Valley. Steady precipitation will start around daybreak for most areas south of Lake Ontario, and a couple hours after daybreak across the North Country.

Temperatures are already above freezing at 4 a.m. this morning across most of the lake plains due to a southerly flow which is causing downslope warming. A few spots are still below freezing across the interior Western Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario. There also will be limited wet-bulb cooling, with a brief snow or sleet mix before it changes over to all rain across the interior Western Southern Tier. Snow will last a bit longer across the south face of the Tug Hill where thermal profiles are colder and where precipitation will be enhanced due to upsloping. Expect 1 to 3 inches here. Likewise, downsloping will limit any accumulations across Jefferson County to less than an inch.

Gusts of around 45 mph remain possible off the Chautauqua Ridge through daybreak, and also downstream of northern slopes of Tug Hill through mid-morning.

HRRR supported by model consensus, which brings this system through quickly. For many locations, this afternoon may not be too bad with rain-free weather and temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. However the southwesterly post frontal flow will keep it cooler east and northeast of Lake Erie where areas of fog are possible with lots of low level moisture in place. Rain showers may linger east of Lake Ontario through the afternoon hours where highs will only be in the lower 40s.

High pressure will build across the region tonight, providing dry weather across the area. BUFKIT profiles, NAM in particular, show lots of low level moisture but this often can be overdone when there is a snowpack in place. There probably will be some cloud cover, but do expect some breaks of clear skies as well. This should allow temperatures to drop below freezing with lows ranging from the mid 20s to lower 30s. Areas of fog may linger into tonight, but this will depend on how much dry air builds in and how much cloud cover remains.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Warm advection associated with an approaching warm front over the Ohio Valley may allow temperatures across far southwest portions of the area to slowly begin to rise before daybreak Sunday. Most locations will warm above freezing before the precipitation associated with the warm front moves southwest to northeast across the region on Sunday. If the precipitation arrives a bit earlier there could be a brief wintry mix with some possible minor icing. Otherwise, expect temperatures to rise quickly later Sunday morning into the afternoon as warm front moves through the area. Daytime highs will climb well into the 40s, with some lower 50s possible for the traditionally warmer locations across western New York, the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region.

Low pressure across the upper Great lakes will move northeast into Quebec sending a cold front across the region early Sunday night. Colder air working in behind the boundary will eventually change any leftover precipitation over to mainly snow, especially across the higher terrain where some minor accumulations will be possible later Sunday night.

A quick shot of arctic air associated with a clipper system is expected to move into the region later Monday and Monday night. There may be a burst of snow with the arctic front when it moves through the region during the second half of Monday into the first half of Monday night. Model consensus is also suggesting a period of windy conditions Monday and/or Monday night. Some limited upslope/lake effect snow showers will be possible east and southeast of the Lakes behind the front Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Behind the arctic front it will stay chilly on Tuesday with highs not making it to 20F over North Country and not out of the 20s elsewhere. Normal highs to start March are in the mid to upper 30s. Just a small chance of lingering lake clouds and light snow showers inland from southeast Lake Ontario early on Tuesday. Otherwise, will be dry as drier air and subsidence build across the region. Expect a dry Tuesday night as high pressure quickly moves east of the area with temps aloft rapidly warming. Temps east of Lake Ontario may bottom out in quickly in the evening, but then temps will become steady or slowly warm across the entire region through the night.

Still appears that on Wednesday our region will be between two areas of low pressure. One moving through central Quebec and the other moving across the Mid Atlantic, though GFS is more muted on the Mid Atlantic system. Overall, latest round of model guidance points to our area staying mainly dry Wednesday through Friday, but will note that previous runs from the models did bring some precip overhead within base of broad trough over eastern Canada at times during this time period. Ptype not clear cut either with ECMWF stronger with trough/colder aloft showing ptype as mainly snow while GFS is weaker with trough/warmer aloft and would have rain and snow mix or just rain as main ptype. Stay tuned as the details become refined as we progress on into next week.

AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Precipitation will quickly spread from SW-NE across the region between 09Z and 12Z. This will mainly be rain, but may start as a mix of rain, snow, or sleet at the onset across interior locations (KJHW and KART).

Low pressure will pass by to the north with its associated warm front quickly followed by a weak cold front. Lowest flight conditions will immediately follow the cold frontal passage, especially northeast of the lakes where there will be lots of moisture trapped beneath an inversion. For most areas, expect BUFKIT low moisture is overdone, but off the lakes this may not be the case with a potential for LIFR cigs and fog at KBUF and KART this afternoon and evening.

Otherwise, rain will end this afternoon with a mix of IFR and MVFR flight conditions in lingering cigs behind the front. Conditions will gradually improve from west to east this evening as drier air builds in.

Outlook .

Sunday . VFR/MVFR. Chance of rain showers. Monday . VFR, except locally IFR in snow showers. Tuesday . MVFR to VFR. A chance of snow showers. Wednesday . VFR.

MARINE. Southerly downslope winds 15 to 25 knots support SCA headlines through this morning. A weak cold/occluded front will cross the waters today, resulting in brief increase in winds. With post- frontal temperatures near the lake temperature expect limited mixing, but the westerly post frontal flow will be just enough to support SCA headlines for eastern portions of Lake Ontario.

Beyond the weekend, those with interests on the lakes should keep eye on Monday as there looks to be potential for high-end gales from the west across especially the waters of Lake Ontario.

HYDROLOGY. There's a risk for ice jams on the Buffalo Creeks Sunday and Monday. The combination of warmer temperatures and some light rain may be enough to cause ice to break up on some of the Buffalo Creeks. Unlike earlier this week, the snowpack will be more dense (or ripe) for run-off heading into Sunday due to the warmer temperatures preceding it. Without significant rainfall, it typically takes about 300 thawing degree hours (TDH) in order for ice to start to break up on the headwaters of Buffalo Creek, Cazenovia Creek, and Cayuga Creek. At this time the latest forecast is for highs in the upper 40s which would keep TDH below this, however if it's any warmer than ice break up and associated jams are possible. There is still a significant snow pack in place (2-4 inches in the headwaters), and ice on the creeks is thick.

This also corresponds with MMEFS ensembles which show a risk for run- off with chance for action level rises on some creeks. If it warms enough for creeks to rise to action level, there would likely be ice break up and a risk for ice jams.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Sunday for LOZ044-045.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel NEAR TERM . Apffel SHORT TERM . JM/TMA LONG TERM . JLA AVIATION . Apffel MARINE . Apffel/JLA HYDROLOGY . Apffel/TMA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 21 mi49 min SSE 16 G 23 36°F 1019.6 hPa19°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 55 mi19 min S 19 G 24 39°F 1017.9 hPa (-3.1)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 56 mi49 min 39°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY16 mi25 minVar 510.00 miOvercast35°F20°F54%1020.6 hPa
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY24 mi25 minSE 1010.00 miLight Rain Snow37°F26°F65%1021.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW44S4SW4CalmE3CalmE3SE4444SE6SE6SE65
1 day agoNW9W6W10
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W11NW8W6S3SW4W4W6CalmCalmCalmS4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmS7S5S5SE9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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