Sunday, September19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rochester, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 7:14PM Sunday September 19, 2021 9:37 AM EDT (13:37 UTC) Moonrise 6:07PMMoonset 4:06AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1014 Pm Edt Sat Sep 18 2021
Overnight..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers Tuesday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely during the day, then a chance of showers Thursday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 72 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:202109190900;;831262 FZUS51 KBUF 190214 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1014 PM EDT Sat Sep 18 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-190900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rochester, NY
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location: 43.17, -77.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 190848 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 448 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. Quiet, dry and pleasant weather is expected to continue early this morning through the start of the new work weak as a large area of high pressure centered over eastern Quebec expands across much of the Great Lakes. Active weather will return mid-week with the arrival of a trough and cold front.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. A large area of high pressure centered over eastern Quebec expands across much of the Great Lakes early this morning. This high is currently responsible for the quiet conditions. Right now mainly clear skies exist across much of the area with some valley fog across the western Southern Tier and Genesee Valley. While under the influence of the expansive high pressure to the north, little to no change in conditions are expected for the next few hours. However, valley fog will begin to lift shortly after sunrise due to the addition of the sun. Otherwise, light winds and clear skies will promote ample radiational cooling tonight, dropping low temperatures ranging in the 40s across the higher terrain and low to mid 50s across the lakeshores and plains.

High pressure will dominate overhead today promoting another pleasant dry day. Cool dry air that filtered in across the area earlier this evening will remain in place and support highs in the low to mid 70s, with a few 60s across the higher terrain.

Starting tonight, an omega block aloft will hold a surface ridge across the Northeast through Monday and therefore continue the quiet and dry weather. With the shift in placement of the surface high pressure, winds will shift to be southeast tonight, that being said some breezy conditions can be expected on the western side of the Chautauqua ridge. Otherwise, prevailing clear skies tonight will support radiational cooling again and therefore another round of valley fog across the western Southern Tier tonight. Lows tonight will be on the cooler side again, with low to mid 40s across the areas east of Lake Ontario and upper 40s to low 50s elsewhere.

Meanwhile, 850mb temperatures will warm into the mid teens Celsius, which will support the start of a warm up Monday and therefore highs will climb up into the low to mid 80s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. High amplitude ridge straddling the eastern seaboard at the start of this period will gradually take on a positive tilt . as anomalously strong shortwaves will feed into and sharpen a deep trough over the mid western states. The result will be a painfully slow eastward progression of developing 150 mile band of moderately heavy rain. Given the tight west to east gradient of the digging trough . there should be a sharp edge to both the more significant cloud cover and resulting rain . but that wont come into play until later Tuesday and Tuesday night In the meantime. fair weather with above normal temperatures will persist.

The ECMWF and NH Canadian have come somewhat into line with the challenging storm evolution over the Mid west . while the GFS remains distinctly too fast with its resultant rainfall and is an obvious outlier. Will throw out the latter without hesitation. The accepted solution is to have a deep closed low develop over the mid west by late Wednesday with an inverted trough/wavy frontal boundary easing across Lake Erie to our FAR western counties. This would support more widespread rain (moderately heavy at times) west of the Genesee valley while more showery pcpn would be expected further east.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. Primary trough which has a lot of jet energy within it, both ahead of, and in wake of the trough eventually looks to cut off somewhere from Ohio valley to lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Still uncertainty with exact position of the upper low and associated sfc low/cold front.

GFS remains much quicker than ECMWF and Canadian-NH with overall front and widespread precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday. Pops have been adjusted upward a bit (as per aforementioned guidance packages) for both Wednesday night and Thursday for rain that could be moderately heavy.

Eventually, drier and somewhat cooler weather will prevail by Friday with another system working through by next weekend. Highs late this week will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s in wake of the cold front.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery continues to depict clear skies across much of the region, with the only exception being some valley fog across the western Southern Tier and into the Genesee Valley. However, as of 09Z the fog hasn't developed in KJHW and therefore all TAF sites support VFR flight conditions. Although throughout the valleys where the fog is in place, some MVFR/IFR conditions exist.

Shortly after daybreak, fog should begin to lift and dissipate across the valleys of the western Souther Tier and Genesee Valley, and therefore all TAF sites will support VFR conditions. In fact, VFR conditions can be expected through the remainder of the day today and into the start of the new work week. However, another round of valley fog can be expected across the western Southern Tier again tonight as radiational cooling will be prominent.

Outlook .

Monday through Tuesday . Mainly VFR. Wednesday through Thursday . Mainly MVFR with showers likely.

MARINE. High pressure centered north of Lake Ontario this morning is supporting light northeasterly winds across both lakes this morning. Winds will remain light today though veer easterly as the center of high pressure begins to shift east, resulting in rather calm waters. As the high continues to shift east tonight and Monday, winds will continue to veer and result in moderate southerlies.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . EAJ NEAR TERM . EAJ SHORT TERM . RSH LONG TERM . JLA/RSH AVIATION . EAJ MARINE . EAJ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 7 mi50 min 64°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 7 mi38 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 65°F 1026.1 hPa
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 33 mi38 min NNE 7.8 G 9.7 62°F 71°F1024.3 hPa55°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 59 mi38 min ESE 7 G 8.9 64°F 1025.4 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY4 mi44 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds56°F55°F97%1025.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6NW4N76N6N10N11N9N10N6CalmCalmCalmW4SW3CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4Calm
1 day agoSW8SW11SW10SW12
G17
S9S9SW8SW9S9S4S4S5S4SW3SW6SW6W6CalmSW4SW5W3SW4W6NW5
2 days agoCalmCalm5E6SE4E7E8E8SE7SE5E7SE7SE6CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmSW3CalmSW3S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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