Sunday, August9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rochester, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 8:22PM Sunday August 9, 2020 6:55 AM EDT (10:55 UTC) Moonrise 10:27PMMoonset 10:57AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 142 Am Edt Sun Aug 9 2020
Overnight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Northwest winds less than 10 knots becoming northeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 71 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:202008090915;;158555 FZUS51 KBUF 090542 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 142 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-090915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rochester, NY
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location: 43.17, -77.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 090906 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 506 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

SYNOPSIS. An area of high pressure over the Ohio Valley today will drift to the Eastern Seaboard by Monday. This will provide mainly dry conditions through the start of the new work week, although a few weak upper level disturbances crossing the region may bring a few showers from time to time, especially across northern areas. A weak cold front will then cross the region on Tuesday, bringing the next chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, temperatures will remain above normal through the upcoming week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. The typical valley fog across the Southern Tier will lift out by mid morning.

An area of surface high pressure will reside across the Ohio Valley today, providing the bulk of the area with dry weather. However, an upper level trough moving down the Ottawa Valley this morning, will cross northern NY this afternoon. This will keep the bulk of the scattered showers and storms associated with this feature to the north of Lakes Erie and Ontario across southern Ontario Province. However, as upper level energy moves across northern NY this afternoon, there will be the chance for a few showers and storms for areas east of Lake Ontario into the Saint Lawrence Valley during the second half of the day. Southwest winds will increase with the approach of the trough, with gusts of 20-30 mph northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario in the afternoon as the surface pressure gradient tightens and somewhat stronger winds off the deck mix down to the surface. Otherwise, temperatures will nudge upward another degree or two today, with highs in the lower to mid 80s across the majority of the area.

A few showers/isolated storms may linger east of Lake Ontario through late this evening as the upper level trough exits east of the area. The next weak shortwave will cross the area during the second half of the night, renewing the chance for a few more showers and storms from the Niagara Frontier east and northeast to the eastern Lake ontario region as this feature interacts with a subtle weak warm front lingering from central Lake Ontario into Central NY. With little in the way of precip, or even cloud cover for that matter across the Southern Tier, may see another night with typical valley fog. Low temperatures tonight will be much warmer than previous nights, as readings will likely only fall back into the mid and upper 60s across the bulk of the area, with lower 60s found across the higher terrain.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. A subtle warm frontal boundary will be draped over and southeast of Lake Ontario Monday morning, with a convectively augmented mid level shortwave also moving southeast across the area. Weak moisture convergence near the warm front and forcing from the shortwave may support a few scattered showers and storms Monday morning over and southeast of Lake Ontario, with this activity then drifting east during the afternoon. A few more isolated showers and storms may develop along and inland of the lake breeze boundaries Monday afternoon, but the majority of the area will stay dry. Temperatures will continue their day to day rise, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 at lower elevations away from lake influences. Dewpoints will also climb into the upper 60s to around 70. This will translate into a heat index in the 90-95F range. The most probable location of marginal heat advisory criteria (95F) is from the Genesee Valley eastward through the western Finger Lakes to Oswego County.

Any isolated diurnal showers and storms will dissipate Monday evening, leaving dry weather overnight. A very warm/muggy airmass and southwest breeze will not allow temperatures to fall much, with lows in the lower 70s on the lake plains and mid 60s across the interior Southern Tier and Lewis County.

Tuesday and Tuesday night a weak mid level trough and associated cold front will approach the area. 00Z model guidance continues to trend slower with this feature, not bringing the cold front through the eastern Great Lakes until very late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Tuesday will start dry, with scattered showers and storms developing in the afternoon along lake breeze boundaries and a pre- frontal trough. The scattered showers and storms will continue Tuesday night as the mid level trough and cold front cross the area. PWAT values climb to around 1.75 inches, so any storms will be capable of very heavy downpours. Relatively weak shear and poor mid level lapse rates will limit the severe weather risk. Tuesday will be another very warm and humid day, with highs in the mid 80s across Western NY and around 90 from the Genesee Valley eastward at lower elevations. The heat index may again reach 95 from the Genesee Valley to the western Finger Lakes and Oswego County.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The cold front moving through the area late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning will lay out in an east-west orientation from the Ohio Valley to PA Wednesday, and stall in place through the end of the week. Several weak, convectively augmented waves will move eastward along the front, providing periods of enhanced ascent and moisture convergence. If a stronger frontal wave materializes it may also modulate the frontal position.

The GFS/GEFS mean remains on the northern side of the guidance envelope, with the ECMWF/GEM keeping the front and associated sensible weather well south of the area. Given the emerging ECMWF/GEM consensus of a farther south solution, lowered POPS Wednesday through Friday with a dry forecast for the majority of the area and low chance POPS over the Southern Tier. By Saturday deeper moisture, instability, and forcing may begin to creep back northward as the next trough moves into the Upper Midwest, bringing a chance of a few scattered showers and storms.

Temperatures will continue to run above average Wednesday through next weekend despite being to the north of the stalled frontal zone. Expect highs in the mid 80s at lower elevations each day, with lows in the 60s. Dewpoints will remain somewhat lower to the north of the boundary, keeping humidity relatively comfortable.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Typical river valley fog will impact the Southern Tier through mid morning with local IFR conditions.

Mid and upper level clouds will be found across the area today, with some low VFR decks east of Lake Ontario during the second half of the day, where a few showers and storms will be possible as well this afternoon/evening. Otherwise, it will be mainly dry with VFR flight conditions area wide through this evening.

Outlook .

Sunday night through Monday . Mainly VFR. A small chance of showers. Tuesday . Showers and thunderstorms likely. Brief MVFR/IFR possible. Wednesday and Thursday . Mainly VFR with an afternoon/evening shower or thunderstorm possible.

MARINE. A tightening pressure gradient will allow southwest winds to increase on both lakes today ahead of a weak upper level trough. This will produce choppy conditions on Lake Erie. Winds will be a bit lighter on Lake Ontario, but still enough to generate some chop, especially across the western half of the lake.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . JM NEAR TERM . JM SHORT TERM . Hitchcock LONG TERM . Hitchcock AVIATION . JM MARINE . JM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 7 mi61 min 65°F 1019 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 7 mi115 min SSW 8.9 G 11 67°F
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 33 mi35 min SW 12 G 16 71°F 72°F1018.6 hPa67°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 59 mi115 min S 6 G 9.9 67°F 1019 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY4 mi61 minWSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy60°F55°F86%1019.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3CalmSW6CalmNW4N4SW4NW6NE5NE4N7N7N5N3SW3SW5SW4W4W7SW5SW4SW6SW6SW6
1 day agoCalmN4NE5NE5E6NE8NE10NE10NE11
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2 days agoSW5SW6SW3CalmE4N5SW45SW3E4N5NE8NE8NE5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.