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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 924 Pm Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers late this evening. A chance of rain showers late. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..North winds 10 knots or less. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. A chance of snow overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Snow and rain likely during the day, then a chance of rain and snow Thursday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Rain likely Saturday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 051210 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 710 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
Weak high pressure across the region this morning will give way to low pressure tracking across Ohio later today. This low will bring some light snow to some areas as it passes by to the south through tonight. There will be some lingering lake enhanced snow Wednesday, then a frontal boundary will bring another chance for light snow Wednesday night into Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A weak ridge at the surface and aloft will move across the region this morning. There may be some localized lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes, but any accumulation will be negligible due to the very limited moisture. Received a recent report of around an inch of new snow from higher terrain in Oswego County confirming just that.

A mid-level shortwave and weak surface low will approach from Ohio today. 850mb temperatures around -7C will be marginally cool enough to support any lake enhancement. However deep moisture associated with the shortwave should provide ample seeding into the DGZ to support some light snow across this afternoon and into tonight. As the surface low passes by to the south winds will increase some and shift to the north tonight. 850 mb temps will drop to -11C across Lake Ontario which will support a limited lake response south of the Lake.

In general snow accumulations should be light, but the combination of lake enhancement and upsloping could bring several inches to western Chautauqua County, with an inch or two expected across the rest of the Western Southern Tier. A convergence band may produce localized accumulating snows in/near Wayne County, but for the most part snow south of Lake Ontario will be light with any accumulation less than an inch.

Due to the cloud cover will hedge on the cool side of model guidance for temperatures today with forecast highs in the 30s. Cooler air mass will support lows in the 20s tonight.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Nuisance lake effect snow will continue Wednesday on a north to northwest flow, with the accumulating snow showers beginning to weaken early in the day with the loss of deeper synoptic moisture. A cold airmass will remain over the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday, leading to a cool day that will have high temperatures likely remaining at or below freezing.

Lake snows will weaken to flurries Wednesday night with dry air building in the snow DGZ. Backing winds will shift these snow flurries east of the Lakes Wednesday night.

Warm, moist air advection Wednesday night will end any lingering lake effect snow flurries, but also provide lift and moisture in the lower levels that when combined with the left exit region of a 80 knot upper level jet that a period of light synoptic snow will form.
Snow late Wednesday night across WNY will spread eastward to areas east of Lake Ontario Thursday. Initially thermal profiles support all snow, but with daytime warming Thursday a little light rain could end before the synoptic precipitation shifts east out of our region.

Snowfall amounts will be light, generally an inch or less...though its timing early Thursday could make for a few slippery spots during the morning rush hour.

The rain/snow mix will end early east of Lake Ontario Thursday night, with general fair weather for the remainder of the region with the axis of a mid level ridge of high pressure approaching our region from the west. The warm air advection, passing of the warm front, Thursday night will make for a milder night with temperatures lowering to around the freezing mark.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A vigorous trough will be advancing through the nations mid section to start this period with a shortwave rounding the base of the trough this weekend, combined with phasing with a shortwave over the Great Lakes to form a negatively tilted mid and upper level trough Sunday.

The pattern aloft will support a deepening surface low that will track from the mid-Mississippi Valley to to our west and north Sunday and Sunday night.

This classic pattern will support much above normal temperatures for the weekend. The deepening low, in addition to a 1.5 PV anomaly that will pass across our region Sunday night will make for strong winds.
The 00Z ECMWF is coming around to the GFS solution with the surface low passing to our west. In this case, rain, slowly pushing eastward Saturday night and Sunday will become more showery Sunday and Sunday night with the passage of a cold front. Slight instability ahead of the front could even lead to a few lightning strikes across WNY before the cold front passage. Strong southerly flow ahead of the cold front that supports the mild temperatures could even approach advisory thresholds for wind gusts before winds veer with the passing cold front later Sunday and Sunday night. At this time winds will likely become stronger with cold air advection aloft, tightening surface pressure gradient a lingering LLJ of 50+ knots.

Colder air pushing in behind the cold front Sunday night and Monday will begin to form bands of lake effect rain/snow. At this time a fair amount of wind shear, the rapid loss of synoptic moisture with the deformation band lifting northward into Canada and approach of surface high pressure will negatively impact any lake effect bands of precipitation to close out this period.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Lake effect clouds will persist through the entire cycle. This will result in a mix of VFR/MVFR cigs. Weak low pressure passing by to the southwest will bring another round of light snow this afternoon and tonight, but this will mainly impact the KJHW terminal (IFR vsby) with very light snow showers expected elsewhere.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.
Thursday...VFR/MVFR. Light snow likely in the morning, then a chance of rain and snow showers.

Friday...VFR/MVFR. A small chance of rain and snow showers.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR. Breezy. Rain changing to rain/snow showers late.

MARINE
There's still a moderate northwest flow early this morning, producing some choppy conditions, but this will diminish during the day as weak high builds in. Northerly winds will again pick up late tonight into Wednesday when low pressure passes by to the south, however winds/waves should remain below small craft criteria.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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