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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North East, PA

June 25, 2024 3:51 AM EDT (07:51 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 9:06 PM
Moonrise 11:11 PM   Moonset 8:26 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LEZ169 Expires:202406250230;;595207 Fzus61 Kcle 241946 Glfle
open lake forecast for lake erie national weather service cleveland oh 346 pm edt Mon jun 24 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.

Synopsis - High pressure 30.00 inches will gradually build east toward the east coast through Tuesday morning. Low pressure 29.30 inches centered over ontario will lift a warm front east across lake erie Tuesday before dragging a cold front east on Wednesday. High pressure 30.00 inches builds east over the eastern great lakes by Thursday and Friday. Another warm front will lift across the lake Friday night into Saturday.
lez061-168-169-250230- ripley to buffalo ny extending from 5nm off shoreline to us- canadian border-geneva-on-the- lake to conneaut oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- conneaut oh to ripley ny beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- 346 pm edt Mon jun 24 2024

Tonight - West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.

Tuesday night - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.

Wednesday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Wednesday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Thursday - North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Waves 2 feet or less.

Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of showers Friday night. Waves 2 feet or less.

Saturday - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

No data

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North East, PA
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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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790 FXUS61 KCLE 250545 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 145 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Low pressure will slide east through the Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday, lifting a warm north north across the area Tuesday afternoon. A cold front will then move east through the region on Wednesday, followed by high pressure by the end of the week.
Another low pressure system system is expected to move across the region on Saturday.

930 PM Update...
The forecast for this evening remains on track and no changes were needed with this update. The convection over southern Wisconsin will stay to the west of the CWA and the complex over northern Minnesota will be the activity to monitor overnight as it likely moves southeast. The area will likely be at least clipped by this complex Tuesday morning, but there`s still uncertainty in how much instability is in place and how much the MCS weakens by daybreak.

Previous Discussion...
Surface high pressure and upper- level troughing will exit east of the region as an upper- level ridge builds across the Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday. Beneath the ridge. very steep mid- level lapse rates will be advected northeastwards across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region tonight into Tuesday, resulting in strong instability, but also strong capping.

An upper-level trough across northern ND/MN this evening will provide sufficient forcing for an organized complex of thunderstorms to develop and move southeastward through the Great Lakes overnight into Tuesday morning. Confidence is increasing in at least some elevated convection arriving across northern OH Tuesday morning. Will need to monitor upstream convective trends, particularly later this evening and overnight as any storms that are able to become surface-based would have the potential for damaging wind gusts. There is also a concerning signal for the HRRR late Tuesday morning behind the convection for the potential of a wake low to produce strong wind gusts. This potential is low, but possible, given the expectation of a rapidly-decaying MCS and warming cloud tops.

Otherwise, anticipating much of Tuesday afternoon and evening to be relatively quiet as morning convection combined with an elevated- mixed layer should result in strong capping and inhibit initiation. If this outcome holds true, high temperatures should break unto the upper 80s to lower 90s under diminishing cloud cover.

Cold front will be in the process of progressing southeast across the region to begin the short term period. Showers and thunderstorms along this cold front will continue to move through the region with the potential for any strong to severe storms dependent on how the environment evolves with any storms that occur Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will quickly build over the region behind the cold front which will end any remaining showers and storms and clear out cloud cover for Thursday.

Near normal high temperatures on Wednesday in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the region. Lows will settle in the upper 50s to lower 60s Wednesday night. Cooler behind the cold front by Thursday with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Northerly flow with a clear sky Thursday night will allow for lows to dip in to the low 50s across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Slightly warmer in the mid to upper 50s west of the I-71 corridor.

High pressure remains overhead to end the work week before we undergo another unsettled period this weekend. We`ll be dry to begin Friday with PoPs increasing Friday afternoon and evening from west to east. Warm front lifts northeast bringing showers and the potential for some strong to severe storms to the region through Saturday. Cold front will cross east Saturday night into Sunday morning followed by high pressure which will allow us to end the long term period fairly dry.

Temperatures will gradually warm through the first part of the long term with the warmest day of the period occurring on Saturday as the warm front lifts through the region. High temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s are possible Saturday before they return closer to normal behind the cold front Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/
VFR conditions should persist across all terminals for the remainder of tonight and for much of the day on Tuesday.
However, there is a large amount of uncertainty with how an upstream MCS will impact the area Tuesday morning. Some hi-res models suggest it weakening when others suggest it surging south, and there is little agreement with the exact path it will take. The highest confidence in the remnants impacting any terminal is for KTOL and KFDY. The best timing for initial onset of precipitation is generally around 15Z, but will need to continue to monitor the ongoing convection and update as needed.
Once this surges south, a warm front will also be lifting north and behind this boundary winds will increase from the south- southwest to 12-15 knots, gusting up to 25 knots. Locally higher winds are possible in any thunderstorms, along with reduction to MVFR and possibly IFR visibilities. After sunset, winds will weaken to 5-10 knots as a cold front approaches from the west.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible, but given the spread in model agreement for the morning convection, opted to just handle this with VCTS or a TEMPO for thunderstorms producing MVFR distances. It is important to note that while confidence remains low on exact timing and placement of weather on Tuesday, there is a general consensus amongst models that there will be impactful weather which may result in visibility/ceiling reduction to non-VFR. Definitely a day to keep an eye on the forecast and all updates as this will be an evolving situation.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms today and Wednesday. Non-VFR possible again in showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.

High pressure begins to exit eastward tonight and allows a warm front to sweep northward across Lake Erie. Variable winds around 5 to 10 knots become southerly and increase to 15 to 20 knots as the warm front moves across the lake. On Tuesday, southerly to southwesterly winds are expected to freshen further to about 15 to 25 knots as a potent low moves eastward through the James Bay region and interacts with the western flank of the aforementioned ridge over/near Lake Erie. The southerly to southwesterly winds are expected to be strongest west of Vermilion. Accordingly, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Vermilion from 8 AM to 5 PM EDT Tuesday. The limited fetch will result in waves of mainly 3 feet or less in nearshore waters, but waves as large as 4 feet are expected along/near 5 nautical miles offshore. Waves as large as 3 to 6 feet are expected in open U.S.
waters. Southwesterly to westerly winds ease to around 10 to 15 knots Tuesday night as the aforementioned ridge continues to exit eastward and the aforementioned low weakens/moves farther eastward.
Waves subside to 3 feet or less by daybreak.

On Wednesday, the low will move toward Labrador and drag a cold front eastward across Lake Erie. The cold front passage will cause winds around 10 to 15 knots to become more westerly and then northwesterly by late Wednesday night as waves remain 3 feet or less. Behind the cold front, high pressure builds from the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes through Friday before another warm front sweeps northward across Lake Erie Friday night. On Saturday, another cold front should approach from the west. Variable flow around 5 to 15 knots is expected Wednesday night through Saturday as waves remain mainly 3 feet or less. However, occasional 4 footers are forecast in open U.S. waters on Saturday.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ142>144.

Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KERI77 sm60 minSSW 0410 smClear63°F54°F72%29.97
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