Wednesday, February24, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cleveland, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:49PM Wednesday February 24, 2021 9:20 PM EST (02:20 UTC) Moonrise 2:40PMMoonset 5:29AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202102250415;;067106 Fzus51 Kbuf 242304 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 604 Pm Est Wed Feb 24 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-250415- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 604 Pm Est Wed Feb 24 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. A chance of snow showers late. Waves 4 to 7 feet building to 8 to 11 feet, then subsiding to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow and rain overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Rain likely during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day, then a chance of snow showers Monday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 36 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cleveland, NY
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location: 43.18, -75.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 250029 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 729 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

SYNOPSIS. Some lingering showers in Central New York will transition to snow showers as colder air moves in late tonight. Colder but seasonable conditions are expected Thursday, including possible lake effect snow showers Thursday night for parts of Central New York. Seasonable and dry conditions are forecast Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. 730 PM update .

Temperatures are holding in the 40s across much of the region as precipitation slides eastward. Model guidance is struggling to keep up with temperature trends and is exhibiting a strong cold bias through the early evening hours.

We updated temperature and precipitation potential for the overnight hours.

The new gridded forecast is out.

4 PM update .

A weak system associated with a cold front will bring light rain showers across the area this afternoon. This is a quick moving system that will move out by late tonight/early Thursday morning. Some lingering showers will transition to light snow showers for CNY. QPF accumulation will be light with mainly less than a tenth of an inch in total accumulation across the area. Some higher amounts are expected in Oneida County. Snowfall accumulations will also be light. Winds will pick up this afternoon with gusts over 30 mph possible across CNY tonight. Winds will remain gusty through the night before calming down early Thursday morning. Following the passage of the cold front, temperatures will fall into the 20s overnight.

Flow becomes northwest which will allow for the development of some light lake effect snow showers for CNY early Thursday morning. Additional snowfall will be light. Total snowfall will be mainly a dusting to less than half of an inch while an inch is possible in northern Oneida county. Dryer conditions and some clearing are expected across the area as high pressure moves in and the lake effect snow showers taper off by early Thursday afternoon. Daytime temperatures will not warm much; only reaching the low to mid 30s in CNY and upper 30s in NEPA.

Temperatures fall into the teens and low 20s Thursday night. Another chance of light lake effect snow showers are possible, but will mainly be confined to parts of northern Finger Lakes region, Western Mohawk Valley, and Southern Tug Hill Plateau.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Largely unchanged from overnight forecast discussion updated below. One change was to nudge highs a bit upward given recent cold bias with the national blend of models.

On Friday the low-level flow quickly backs to the southwest and there is increased warm air advection. This leads to some clouds early in the day with a better chance of some sun by afternoon as surface high pressure builds. There may be some lingering snow flurries downwind of the Finger Lakes early in the morning, but the chance was not high enough to keep in the forecast at this time. Then, Friday night warm advection will continue as the next system approaches. Latest model guidance appears to be a little faster with light precipitation arriving between 6-12z early Saturday morning. The light precip likely starts off as snow, but could mix with sleet, patchy freezing rain or even rain in the valleys by daybreak. Precipitation looks rather light through Saturday and more of a showery nature with any mix quickly changing to rain Saturday. Still, before the changeover some of the higher elevations could see a quick inch of snow in the Western Catskills and Northern Oneida county.

We enter a warm sector temperatures are expected climb well into the 40s by afternoon. As the system moves out of the area, some drying is expected from west to east during the afternoon hours as a southwesterly flow develops. Rain showers and some high elevation wet snow showers linger longest across the Catskills, Western Mohawk Valley and southern Tug Hill region. Of course the exact timing of this system may still change a bit, so continue to monitor the forecast over the coming days.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. 415 AM Update .

Sunday is looking to be mainly dry and pleasant as daytime temperatures climb into the mid to upper 40s areawide.

While the area is under pleasant conditions Sunday, a trough moves across the Central US. This will bring a weak clipper system with it Sunday night while a separate, weak coastal system also moves through to our south. This results in a chance for rain/snow early Monday morning which will then transition to rain during the day as surface temperatures warm up.

The biggest uncertainty and challenge in this period is the strength of a colder airmass arriving later Monday and continuing through at least Tuesday. The OP GFS and GFSV16 are by far the most aggressive solution, bringing an arctic cold front through the region on Monday with snow showers/squalls, 510dm thicknesses and -22C at 850mb by Monday night. The 00z ECMWF is not nearly as cold, with thicknesses bottoming out only around 528dm and -10c at 850mb. Meanwhile the 00z CMC is a compromise solution, with 516dm thicknesses and -14C at 850mb. Either way, this looks to be a fast/quick shot of colder air . but if the GFS is more correct, and a slightly deeper trough moves overhead, this would lead to a better chance for lake effect snow showers Monday night and Tuesday. For now, used a blended solution for the forecast this period, but did increase PoPs (30- 45%) considering the potential lake effect snow showers across CNY.

Much colder air moves in Monday night which will result in the rain transitioning back to snow showers. This system moves out on Tuesday, with lake effect snow showers possible in its wake. Brief high pressure and drier weather move in Tuesday night. Then, model uncertainty grows significantly by day 8, so continued close to a consensus blend (NBM) for official forecast now. The 00z ECMWF is an outlier solution at this time, showing a southern stream low pressure system riding through the Mid-Atlantic and along the Northeast Coast next Wednesday. Very few ensembles had this solution and even the following 12Z run has backed off. Continued slight chance to chance of rain and snow here.

AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. VFR continues this evening with just a few stray rain showers across the area not amounting to any restrictions. Winds shift over to the west/northwest over the next several hours with a passing cold front. This may touch off some lake effect snow showers at KSYR and KRME, and should otherwise spread lower level clouds across the area. Ceilings drop back generally to around 1500 to 2500 ft. Ceilings rise back up to VFR as skies start to clear into Thursday morning, but lower ceilings may linger a little longer at KBGM, KITH, and KSYR due to flow off of Lake Ontario.

Otherwise, strong winds aloft will continue to cause low level wind shear impacts at all terminals over the next several hours. Surface winds will then turn gusty overnight, shifting over to the northwest at around 10 to 15 kts with gusts as high as 20 kts. Winds should fall back to around 8 to 12 kts into Thursday.

Outlook .

Thursday night through Friday . Brief lake effect snow Thursday night for KSYR and KRME. Otherwise, mainly VFR.

Saturday . Restrictions possible in rain and snow showers.

Sunday . Mainly VFR, then restrictions possible in additional rain and snow showers late.

Monday . Restrictions possible in rain and snow showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . BTL/DJP NEAR TERM . BTL/DJP SHORT TERM . MJM/MWG LONG TERM . MJM/MWG AVIATION . HLC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 41 mi50 min WSW 19 G 29 44°F 1003.8 hPa33°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 94 mi80 min W 19 G 25 46°F 1005.8 hPa (+3.1)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 95 mi50 min 44°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY16 mi26 minW 1510.00 miOvercast44°F32°F63%1004.2 hPa
Griffiss Air Force Base / Rome, NY23 mi27 minW 16 G 2310.00 miOvercast47°F32°F56%1004 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW14W11W8W8W8W8W8SW4S5SW3S3S7SE9SE7
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1 day agoW17
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SW11W11W7S46SE3E4SE5S8S8S8S7SW9W12W11W13W11W14W15W14
2 days agoE6E7E7S8SE6SE8SE8E6CalmS8
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SE105SE8S44E5E4S8SW10SW12SW9SW12SW11

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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