Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 5:51AM||Sunset 8:54PM||Thursday July 18, 2019 1:06 PM EDT (17:06 UTC)||Moonrise 9:16PM||Moonset 6:21AM||Illumination 97%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lewiston, NYHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus61 kbuf 181429|
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1029 am edt Thu jul 18 2019
Areas of low clouds and some patchy fog this morning will give way
to some sunshine by this afternoon, with just a few isolated showers
and thunderstorms inland from the lakes. Oppressive summer heat and
humidity will then build into the region Friday through the weekend
with a few brief rounds of showers and thunderstorms. A cold front
is expected to cross the area by Sunday night, allowing for a break
from the heat and humidity by early next week.
Near term through Friday
The low stratus will mix out into a cumulus field by midday.
The cumulus may remain rather congested through much of the day
inland from the lakes given the abundant boundary layer moisture
available. Limited surface based instability may support a few
isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon along and
inland of the lake breeze boundaries. The best chance of this
will be found east of lake ontario where a passing weak mid
level shortwave will provide some large scale ascent. Converging
lake breeze boundaries may also produce an isolated shower or
thunderstorm just north east of buffalo this afternoon. The
greatest amount of sunshine will be found close to the
lakeshores this afternoon as stable lake shadows develop. It
will be quite muggy again today with dewpoints in the upper 60s
to around 70. Highs will reach the low to mid 80s in most
locations, yielding a heat index in the upper 80s to around 90
at lower elevations away from lake influences.
Any isolated convection will end this evening as the boundary layer
stabilizes with sunset. This will leave partly cloudy skies for the
early part of the overnight. Late tonight a 30-40 knot low level jet
will begin to approach from the central great lakes, tied to the
northeast extension of an EML plume. Greater instability will be
advected towards the eastern great lakes late tonight beneath the
eml. The combination of increasing instability, increasing
convergence on the nose of the low level jet, and an approaching
convectively enhanced mid level shortwave will bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms towards daybreak Friday. A few higher
resolution models even suggest a weakening MCS reaching our area by
daybreak Friday. It will be a warm and muggy night, with lows in the
lower 70s in most areas, and mid to upper 60s in the cooler southern
tier valleys and east of lake ontario.
As the core of the oppressively hot airmass advects across the lower
great lakes, MAX temperatures can be expected to reach the low to
mid 90s for the majority of the forecast area Friday afternoon.
Readings will be several degrees lower in the lake cooled air in
the immediate buffalo suburbs, across the higher terrain and also
in the thousand islands region. This heat, combined with tropical-
like dew points in the mid 70s, will support stifling heat index
values possibly as high as 105-107. Heat advisories can be expected
for the entire region both days, with the risk for excessive heat
warnings for some of the counties bordering the south shore of
lake ontario, as well as the typically warmer locations across
the western finger lakes region. The excessive heat watch
currently in effect for the latter still looks good, and will
not be adding any additional counties to the watch with this
Precip chances will increase from the northwest late tonight
early Friday morning. Models continue to advertise the possibility
for a convectively enhanced shortwave MCS to potentially ride
southeast from the upper great lakes to near western ny by Friday
morning. Convection looks fairly impressive over the upper great
lakes earlier Thursday night, however it appears as though it
will be in a weakened state by the time it reaches our region
Friday morning. That said, it would give parts of the region a
chance for some rain possible storm during the morning. Otherwise,
after a mainly dry midday, there will be a renewed chance for
showers and thunderstorms along and inland of any lake breeze
boundaries, with a bit better chance for convection across western
ny later in the day as a weak shortwave moves across the lower
great lakes. Any convection late Friday will wane for the most
part during the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating,
however can't rule out an isolated shower storm through the
overnight within this very humid airmass.
Short term Friday night through Sunday night
Dangerously oppressive heat continues a little longer...
an expansive 594dm sub tropical ridge extending from bermuda back
across the eastern half of the country to baja california will
continue to emersed the majority of the country in a sweltering sauna
of heat and high humidity through at least the first half of the
weekend. Interestingly... The ridge is not especially unusual. Rather
it is the 'perfect storm' of several variables coming together...
primarily anomalous temperatures below 10k ft and extraordinarily
high pwat values coinciding with the thermal solstice. Its one thing
to have h7 h85 temperatures 2 to 3 std above normal... And its quite
another to have that occur during the climatological MAX period of
the year. These values have return intervals of 10 to 20 years for
this point in summer.
All of that being said... Ensemble guidance (gefs sref) continues to
hammer home the forecast of 20-22 c air at h85 for Friday night and
Saturday with some deterministic guidance as high as 24c. Unlike
Friday when there could be some MCS remnants in the morning to delay
insolation... Cloud cover on Saturday should not be an issue in
getting the heat started. Additionally... We will get a head start on
the dangerous heat due to the fact that Friday night will be at
least 5 deg f warmer than the previous night. Specifically... Mins
Friday night will only be in the mid 70s across the western counties
with MAX temps Saturday ranging from the upper 80s across the north
country... Higher terrain and lake cooled areas to 90-95 inland
across the lake plains. When mid 70 dew points are factored in...
heat indices will Saturday afternoon will generally range from 100
to 105. This will easily support widespread heat advisories with the
very real threat for excessive heat warning conditions.
In regards to pcpn... There will be two areas of convection to|
contend with Friday evening. The first will be weakening lake breeze
driven thunderstorm activity across the southern tier... And the
second will be storms supported by a convectively enhanced shortwave
moving southeast from southern ontario. Will use high chc to likely
pops to cover these areas... Both of which will either die off or
pass through the region by 06z. The important note with this
convection is that it will occur within near an EML plume...
something that we have been pointing out for the past several days.
The origin of this elevated instability can be seen on this mornings
klbf and kabq soundings. During the course of the next 36 to 48
hours... This instability (lapse rates >7 deg c km) will be advected
across the northern plains to the great lakes (as per hysplit
trajectory forecasts at the 700-500mb level). This will certainly
have the ability to enhance the above described convection.
Mainly dry weather is then expected from the second half of Friday
night through the bulk of Saturday. While there will be the
potential for some showers and thunderstorms south and east of
buffalo and rochester late Saturday afternoon... The next round of
convection will be largely driven by the first of two cold fronts
that will be approaching from southern ontario. The first of these
fronts will pass through the region Saturday night and will take the
edge off the heat for the second half of the weekend. The second
front will usher in the true relief for the new work week... But
thats getting ahead of ourselves.
The initial cold front will press south across our region Saturday
night. Will carry high chc pops during the first half of the night
for the associated convection with diminishing pops for the
overnight into Sunday morning. Steep mid level lapse rates may still
be in place early... So will have to remain vigilant for more strong
As the first fronts stalls over pennsylvania on Sunday... The
secondary cold front will make its across lake ontario. Subsidence
between the two boundaries should provide a six hour period of mainly
convection free weather over the region... But timing this relatively
narrow window will be difficult. May just broad brush chc pops for
now and await more clear cut guidance before fine tuning. In either
case... Temperatures will be several degrees lower on Sunday with the
mercury topping out in the mid to upper 80s. While it will still be
quite warm... Lower humidity levels should help to make things a
little more tolerable.
High pressure centered over the northern plains Sunday night will
settle south across the mississippi valley Monday and Monday night.
This will usher cooler and notably drier air across all of the great
lakes region... Allowing our temperatures to drop back to below
normal levels. Monday should prove to be a beautiful day!
Long term Monday through Wednesday
This period will feature a broad upper level trough over the great
lakes and northeast, while the aforementioned canadian high settles
southeastward to the ohio valley and mid atlantic states. For our
area this will lead to a continuation of pleasantly cooler and less
humid weather, with daytime highs averaging out in the mid to upper
70s, and nighttime lows generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Surface dewpoints settling into the 50s will make for quite
comfortable mid summer conditions. While weak disturbances
periodically rotating through base of the mean upper level trough
could touch off a few isolated to widely scattered showers both
Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly dry weather should otherwise prevail.
Aviation 15z Thursday through Monday
A warm, muggy airmass combined with wet ground following the rain
yesterday will continue to support patchy fog and areas of low
stratus this morning. While breaks in the clouds can be seen on
satellite, ifr conditions will last at kbuf, kiag and kjhw through
15z. The low stratus will mix out to MVFR and eventuallyVFR by
midday to early afternoon.VFR will then prevail for the rest of
today and tonight. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms may
develop this afternoon along and inland of lake breeze boundaries,
with the best chance of this east of lake ontario. Any thunderstorm
may produce local brief MVFR to ifr, butVFR will prevail the vast
majority of the time.
The isolated showers and thunderstorms will end this evening.
Another area of showers and thunderstorms will approach from
southern ontario late tonight, possibly reaching the area by
daybreak Friday with another round of local brief MVFR to ifr
conditions in the heavier showers.
Friday through Monday... MainlyVFR with a chance of a few brief
rounds of showers and thunderstorms with associated local MVFR to
Winds will remain light today and tonight, generally 10 knots or
less. Southwest winds will increase Friday and Saturday, averaging
15 knots on lakes erie and ontario. This will produce choppy
conditions at times, although winds and waves will likely remain
below small craft advisory levels.
There will be a chance of a few scattered thunderstorms at times
Friday through the weekend. Any thunderstorm may produce locally
higher winds and waves.
Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Excessive heat watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
afternoon for nyz001>005-013-014.
near term... Hitchcock hsk
short term... Rsh
long term... Jm jjr rsh
aviation... Hitchcock hsk
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY||17 mi||55 min||77°F||1013.6 hPa|
|BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY||30 mi||49 min||SW 4.1 G 5.1||76°F||76°F||1013.8 hPa||64°F|
|45142 - Port Colborne||31 mi||67 min||NNW 1.9 G 3.9||73°F||74°F||1013.4 hPa (-0.6)|
|OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY||32 mi||67 min||NE 5.1 G 6||76°F||1013.9 hPa (-1.3)|
|PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY||37 mi||55 min||76°F||1013.5 hPa|
|45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax||43 mi||67 min||NE 3.9 G 3.9||67°F||66°F||1 ft||1013.5 hPa (-1.1)|
|DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY||48 mi||67 min||N 6 G 7||75°F||1013.8 hPa (-0.6)|
Wind History for Buffalo, NY(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY||19 mi||74 min||S 5||10.00 mi||Mostly Cloudy||80°F||68°F||67%||1013.1 hPa|
Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||SW|
|2 days ago||Calm||SW||SW||SW||SW||S||S||S||S||S||SE||SE||S||SW||SW||S||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW||SW |
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (13,3,4,5)(on/off)  Help
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