Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bridgeport, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Rounds of showers and thunderstorms produced gusty to damaging winds along with heavy rainfall and lightning this evening. Most of the activity is shifting east of the region. A few stray showers and thunderstorms are forming along the cold front which should push through the area overnight. Instability has decreased considerably so no further strong to severe storms are expected. The watch has been cancelled.

300 PM update...

Clear skies has led to efficient daytime heating. Temperatures have climbed into the upper 70s to low 80s this afternoon. This has then resulted an unstable environment over western NY and instability continues to increase. The only issue is that there has not been anything to trigger storms this afternoon, though a couple of showers are passing through the Finger Lakes region.
Most CAMs continue to show a wave kicking off a first round of showers and storms late this afternoon and early evening. With instability and shear expected to increase prior to these storms moving into the region, conditions will be favorable for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over Central NY. The main hazard will be damaging wind gusts as inverted-V soundings will favor stronger winds mixing to the surface. DCAPE values are expected to be in the 600 to 900 range. Small hail will also be possible. Low-level shear values will favor rotating storms but LCL heights will initially be too high with values around 1200m for tornadoes to develop. While stronger storms cannot be ruled out late today over NEPA and Catskills, the severe threat does decrease from NW to SE over the region.

A second line of showers and thunderstorms is expected ahead of cold front and move in late this evening. Instability is expected to decrease late today, especially if the first round occurs as most models are suggesting. DCAPE values will remain elevated through the late evening and this line will move through quickly, so strong wind gusts will be possible. If the line can remain organized, then weak spin ups cannot be completely ruled out. This second round of showers and storms is expected to be through the region by midnight or shortly there after.

The aforementioned cold front will drop temperatures into the 30s and 40s tonight/early Wednesday morning. Temperatures will then only climb into the 50s and low 60s tomorrow. Conditions will be quite dry with RH as low as 25 to 30% but any concern for fire weather is low as winds will gradually decrease throughout the day. Northwest flow will likely keep lake clouds around through at least the morning hours. Overnight lows will be in the 30s across most of the region while lower elevation locations in NEPA may just hang onto the 40s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
300 PM Update...

High pressure will slide east of the area Thursday morning and a warm front will start to approach from the south and west associated with a surface low moving north into the Great Lakes region. A few showers can start to develop west of I-81 ahead of the front Thursday afternoon. With southwest flow in place, it will be a warmer day with high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to the mid 70s.

As the low slowly moves northeast into southern Ontario and the warm front continues to lift north, the chance for showers will continue into Thursday night, especially during the evening hours. The operational NAM and Euro both show some elevated instability, with the frontal passage, but soundings are pretty stable, so limited thunder to a slight chance for now. With the CWA remaining in the warm sector with southwesterly flow, it will be a mild night with lows mainly in the 50s.

The chance for showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue into Friday, especially during the afternoon, as an upper level shortwave moves through along with a surface cold front extending from the low traversing eastern Canada. CAPE values look to be generally around 200-500 J/kg but there are some pockets of 1000 J/kg being shown, especially east of I-81, along with 30-40 knots of shear and low level lapse rates of 7-9 C/km so the environment does look more favorable for thunder this day. The front is expected to be off to the east by Friday evening and showers will briefly diminish in coverage before a deeper upper trough and developing surface low bring a period of steadier rainfall to start the weekend Saturday. Friday will remain quite warm with highs in the mainly in the mid and upper 70s. Some valley locations in NE PA look to make a run at 80 degrees. Saturday will feature a wide range in temperatures as the cold front pushes east and winds start to shift to the northwest. Highs are expected to range from the mid and upper 50s around the Finger Lakes region to the mid 60s to around 70 degrees over the Catskills and NE PA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
300 PM Update...

The steadier rainfall is expected to taper off Saturday evening as the surface low tracks to the northeast, but with the northwest flow off the Great Lakes, there could be some lingering spotty showers or drizzle, mainly across CNY. Turning cooler with lows Saturday night in the upper 30s to the mid 40s.

Sunday into early next week does look largely dry as surface high pressure builds in, but with upper level troughiness and northwest flow still in place, a spotty shower or two cannot be ruled out off Lake Ontario Sunday. The outlier in this solution is the operational Euro and European ensemble which has the upper trough closing off into a upper low which retrogrades lowly back westward, which would lead to a chance of isolated to scattered showers Sunday into early next week. The drier solution would support a warming trend early next week, while the European solution would keep more clouds around and temperatures closer to average.

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
All shower and thunderstorm activity will come to an end by 06z, if not earlier. Storms will bring strong wind gusts and lower visibilities to terminals they impact. Where confidence is high enough, tempo groups were added for thunderstorms and associated restrictions. After the showers and storms, conditions will be VFR, though northwest flow will result in lake clouds and Fuel Alt conditions for many CNY terminals. After 12z, all terminals improve back to VFR.

South to westerly winds become northwesterly after a cold front moves through overnight. Winds remain gusty through the morning hours, but then become calmer during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night...Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered rain showers, mainly during the afternoon and through the evening.

Friday and Saturday...Rain showers likely and a slight chance for thunderstorms with associated restrictions at times.

Sunday...Mainly VFR; low chance for rain showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.