Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bridgeport, NY

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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 242341 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 641 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

SYNOPSIS. A low pressure area spinning out of the Ohio Valley will bring a mix of rain and snow to Central New York and Northeast Pennsylvania late tonight through Sunday. A period of freezing rain is possible from the Poconos through the Catskills to the Tug Hill Plateau. Scattered snow showers along with seasonable temperatures continue Monday through Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. 345 pm update .

The biggest issue is the threat of freezing rain late tonight and into Saturday morning at the start of the rain. A winter weather advisory has been issued for the eastern zones for the threat of a light glaze of ice. This included Pike and Wayne counties in PA north to Oneida County in NY. Amounts now will be less than a tenth of an inch.

Precipitation will move in ahead of a stacked low and occluded front in the Ohio Valley now. The front moves through Saturday afternoon while the upper level low waits until Sunday to move through CNY. A period of moderate to heavy rain will be ahead of the front.

This afternoon temperatures soared to the mid and upper 40s and even low and mid 50s with a some filtered sunshine. Lower clouds are now moving in ahead of schedule. This bodes well to keeping road and surface temperatures warm tonight. Models have again been warmer for low level temperatures as the rain moves in late tonight and Saturday morning. Low temperatures will be in the upper 20s and lower 30s but warm a few degrees before the rain moves in. The best chance of below freezing temperatures and freezing rain will be in the east, east of I - 81. With the strong warm air advection temperatures should warm above freezing by noon everywhere. The low level jet is in excess of 50 kts Saturday. There will be several hours where the surface winds could gust to 30 mph. That is also at the same time as the heavier rain. Rain amounts look about the same at half to one inch most areas but around an inch in the Poconos and southern Catskills still. This amount of rain even with some snowmelt shouldn't cause any flooding. The higher amounts due to low pressure forming on the triple point to our southeast on the coast. High temperatures around 40 but could be warmer.

Most of the rain ends with the front late in the day, but some continues across the north and northeast ahead of the stacked low. Temperatures slowly cool especially aloft Saturday night so the rain will change to snow. Except for the Tug, snow amounts will be only a light coating at most. The Tug could get 1 to 4 inches Saturday night to Sunday. Across the rest of the area, the snow will be wet with air and ground temperatures above or near freezing. Low temperatures around freezing rises into the mid and upper 30s Sunday.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. 240 pm update . Main concern in the short term remains focused on the potential for persistent lake effect/enhanced snow showers over a good portion of central NY off Lake Ontario and the Finger Lakes Sunday night through Tuesday.

Slow moving low pressure system through Maine into New Brunswick/Nova Scotia Sunday night and Monday will allow a persistent push of cool Canadian air to spread across central NY. This initial air mass will have 850mb temperatures around -6 to -8 deg C and not be very favorable for lake effect snow showers, but have a sufficient amount of moisture associated with it due to some deeper moisture getting entrained into the circulation to the northeast. An embedded upper level short wave on the back side of the system will also rotate through the region on Monday and help to enhance some of the lift needed for the scattered snow showers to persist.

Surface temperatures on Monday will rise into the mid 30s in the valley and lower elevation locations. There may be some mix present in the afternoon, with the greatest potential likely being over the valley locations of the southern tier of NY. Otherwise, the snow showers should continue most of the day, with slow/gradual light accumulations of around 1-3 inches.

Winds veer more to the north Monday night and Tuesday as a ridge amplifies over the Upper Midwest and the embedded short wave and associated low to the east continue their slow movement to the east. This will also allow a slightly colder air mass to be drawn down from the north. 850mb temperatures around -7 to -11 deg C will overtake the region during this time . however inversion heights only around 4-5k ft deep and minimal moisture/lift in the favored dendrite zone will hinder the production of snow. Snow amounts through Tuesday will likely be limited to about 1-2 inches at the most.

Temperatures Monday night will drop into the mid 20s to around 30 for most of the area and only rise into the lower to mid 30s by Tuesday afternoon.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. 240 pm update . Weather conditions continue to dry out Tuesday night through the middle of the week with ridging aloft and a slow moving surface high working across the Northeast. The air mass will likely still be on the colder side with overnight lows in the teens and 20s . and afternoon highs in the lower 30s Wednesday and Thursday. Dry weather conditions are expected until possibly late Thursday night into Friday when a pre- frontal upper trough rotates quickly through the region. At this time it appears it will only act to increase cloud cover and potentially produce a very light amount of precipitation over the area . likely in the form of light snow.

The pattern starts to shift slightly by Friday as the ridge shifts to the east and a return southerly flow develops across much of the region. This will usher in a warmer air mass ahead of another deepening low pressure system that could potentially impact the region by next Saturday. Temperatures will bump up a few degrees during this time with highs on Friday in the mid to upper 30s.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/.

Low approaching from the west will increase the winds and bring mostly rain to the area late tonight and into Saturday. With the low will be a strong low level jet and the possibility of LLWS at all stations. As the rain moves in conditions will lower to IFR except at RME and SYR where MVFR will prevail.

Outlook . Saturday night through Sunday . IFR and MVFR conditions likely with a mix of rain and snow.

Monday through Wednesday . Occasional restrictions especially CNY in snow showers. Mainly VFR at KAVP.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 11 AM EST Saturday for PAZ040-048-072. NY . Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for NYZ009-036-037-045-046-057-062.

SYNOPSIS . TAC NEAR TERM . TAC SHORT TERM . BJT LONG TERM . BJT AVIATION . DAB/TAC

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY	32 mi	50 min	SE 9.9 G 13	43°F			1021.3 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY	84 mi	20 min	E 11 G 13	38°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY	85 mi	50 min					1019.6 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY	8 mi	26 min	E 10	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	39°F	23°F	53%	1022.2 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY	23 mi	26 min	Var 3	10.00 mi	Fair	41°F	21°F	45%	1022.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (20,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY

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