Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bridgeport, NY
May 19, 2024 11:15 AM EDT (15:15 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:34 AM Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 3:41 PM Moonset 2:38 AM |
LOZ044 Expires:202405191515;;471101 Fzus51 Kbuf 190843 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 443 am edt Sun may 19 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-191515- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 443 am edt Sun may 19 2024
Today - South winds less than 10 knots becoming northwest. Areas of dense fog. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight - Light and variable winds. Areas of fog. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday - South winds less than 10 knots becoming north. Areas of fog in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night - East winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers Thursday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 49 degrees.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 443 am edt Sun may 19 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-191515- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 443 am edt Sun may 19 2024
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 49 degrees.
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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 191330 AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 930 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Clouds will be slowly dissipating through the morning hours with more sun than clouds by mid afternoon and temperatures rising into the 70s. Tomorrow is looking even warmer with dry and mostly sunny weather expected.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
930 AM Update...
Stubborn morning clouds will linger a few more hours, but then we are still expecting plenty of sunshine this afternoon as drier air mixes into the region. Overall, no significant changes to the forecast at this time.
630 AM update...
Decided to lower cloud cover this afternoon more as water vapor imagery has very dry air moving overhead and with day time mixing there is a greater likelihood that models are overdoing boundary layer moisture. Temperatures were kept as is for now but if the clouds end up scattering out by mid morning then highs this afternoon will push a few degrees warmer.
245 AM Update:
This near term forecast is the first in a while where I have not had to add any chances of precipitation to anywhere in the forecast area. Upper level ridging has build in with water vapor imagery showing dry air advecting in aloft. With day time heating today, some of that dry air will mix down to the surface. Cloud cover this afternoon was lowered from what model guidance has as self destructive sunshine is less likely as deeper mixing will just mix in more dry air rather than lead to more cloud development. Some of the models like the NAM want to put in surface CAPE and a few isolated thunderstorms this afternoon but looking at forecast soundings, it looks like the model is keeping the boundary layer a bit too moist. Still with dew points in the mid to upper 50s and temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, some of the higher terrain like the Catskills could assist in sparking off a shower or two this afternoon but confidence was too low to add showers to the forecast.
Tonight, high pressure remains in place and with radiational cooling once again and it being post greenup, patchy valley fog will likely develop again in the river valleys.
Monday is looking even warmer as 500 mb heights continue to rise towards 580 dm. With ridging in place, a stout subsidence inversion around 700 mb will likely keep the region capped despite some surface based CAPE able to develop with the heat and humidity. Once again there is a small chance that terrain will help a couple showers or thunderstorms break through the cap but odds are low. High pressure and clear skies continue into Monday night.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A large ridge of high pressure still looks to be over the region Tuesday. A weak disturbance ahead of the front is coming into better focus, passing through central New York on Tuesday. However, moisture and lift are both limited so if any shower or thunderstorm it would be brief and isolated. The NBM has caught up to what what the modeled boundary layer temperatures would yield so confidence is increasing that highs will get well up into the 80's. Continued warm air advection should keep temperatures in the 60's for lows Tuesday night.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Continued warming trend through Wednesday given the warm air advection. Most locations should rise well into the 80's with a few locations close to 90 on Wednesday as the NBM has caught on to the overall pattern. With dewpoints only around 60, heat index values should not be much higher. Lows generally in the 60's at night.
A frontal boundary still looks to move in later Wednesday and Thursday to break down the ridge. Enough lift and moisture looks present for at least some scattered showers with the frontal passage. Instability during the afternoons surface CAPE is currently modeled to be around 1,000 J/KG each afternoon and evening so some thunderstorms will be possible as well. Still some timing differences with the operational models and ensemble guidance with the frontal timing. Continued to lean more toward the slower ECMWF suite at this time. Given the timing differences it is still to early to determine the potential for any strong to severe thunderstorms.
The front should clear the area Thursday night with high pressure building back into the region. Temperatures look to be knocked down a bit back into the 50's for lows and 70's for highs through Saturday.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Mid level clouds sticking around has limited fog mainly to ELM but it has since cleared and now with the sun up, it is unlikely to return. IFR cigs remain at BGM but will likely lift in an hour or so. Cigs will scatter out at all terminals by 17Z with VFR conditions at all terminals this afternoon.
Tonight, clear skies means fog formation once again. AVP and ELM have the best chance at fog being in valleys. BGM has a smaller chance at fog being on a hill so it was kept out of the TAFs for now. RME, ITH, and SYR will likely stay VFR through tomorrow morning.
Outlook...
Monday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Some showers possible late Wednesday through Thursday.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 930 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024
SYNOPSIS
Clouds will be slowly dissipating through the morning hours with more sun than clouds by mid afternoon and temperatures rising into the 70s. Tomorrow is looking even warmer with dry and mostly sunny weather expected.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
930 AM Update...
Stubborn morning clouds will linger a few more hours, but then we are still expecting plenty of sunshine this afternoon as drier air mixes into the region. Overall, no significant changes to the forecast at this time.
630 AM update...
Decided to lower cloud cover this afternoon more as water vapor imagery has very dry air moving overhead and with day time mixing there is a greater likelihood that models are overdoing boundary layer moisture. Temperatures were kept as is for now but if the clouds end up scattering out by mid morning then highs this afternoon will push a few degrees warmer.
245 AM Update:
This near term forecast is the first in a while where I have not had to add any chances of precipitation to anywhere in the forecast area. Upper level ridging has build in with water vapor imagery showing dry air advecting in aloft. With day time heating today, some of that dry air will mix down to the surface. Cloud cover this afternoon was lowered from what model guidance has as self destructive sunshine is less likely as deeper mixing will just mix in more dry air rather than lead to more cloud development. Some of the models like the NAM want to put in surface CAPE and a few isolated thunderstorms this afternoon but looking at forecast soundings, it looks like the model is keeping the boundary layer a bit too moist. Still with dew points in the mid to upper 50s and temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, some of the higher terrain like the Catskills could assist in sparking off a shower or two this afternoon but confidence was too low to add showers to the forecast.
Tonight, high pressure remains in place and with radiational cooling once again and it being post greenup, patchy valley fog will likely develop again in the river valleys.
Monday is looking even warmer as 500 mb heights continue to rise towards 580 dm. With ridging in place, a stout subsidence inversion around 700 mb will likely keep the region capped despite some surface based CAPE able to develop with the heat and humidity. Once again there is a small chance that terrain will help a couple showers or thunderstorms break through the cap but odds are low. High pressure and clear skies continue into Monday night.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A large ridge of high pressure still looks to be over the region Tuesday. A weak disturbance ahead of the front is coming into better focus, passing through central New York on Tuesday. However, moisture and lift are both limited so if any shower or thunderstorm it would be brief and isolated. The NBM has caught up to what what the modeled boundary layer temperatures would yield so confidence is increasing that highs will get well up into the 80's. Continued warm air advection should keep temperatures in the 60's for lows Tuesday night.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Continued warming trend through Wednesday given the warm air advection. Most locations should rise well into the 80's with a few locations close to 90 on Wednesday as the NBM has caught on to the overall pattern. With dewpoints only around 60, heat index values should not be much higher. Lows generally in the 60's at night.
A frontal boundary still looks to move in later Wednesday and Thursday to break down the ridge. Enough lift and moisture looks present for at least some scattered showers with the frontal passage. Instability during the afternoons surface CAPE is currently modeled to be around 1,000 J/KG each afternoon and evening so some thunderstorms will be possible as well. Still some timing differences with the operational models and ensemble guidance with the frontal timing. Continued to lean more toward the slower ECMWF suite at this time. Given the timing differences it is still to early to determine the potential for any strong to severe thunderstorms.
The front should clear the area Thursday night with high pressure building back into the region. Temperatures look to be knocked down a bit back into the 50's for lows and 70's for highs through Saturday.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Mid level clouds sticking around has limited fog mainly to ELM but it has since cleared and now with the sun up, it is unlikely to return. IFR cigs remain at BGM but will likely lift in an hour or so. Cigs will scatter out at all terminals by 17Z with VFR conditions at all terminals this afternoon.
Tonight, clear skies means fog formation once again. AVP and ELM have the best chance at fog being in valleys. BGM has a smaller chance at fog being on a hill so it was kept out of the TAFs for now. RME, ITH, and SYR will likely stay VFR through tomorrow morning.
Outlook...
Monday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Some showers possible late Wednesday through Thursday.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY | 32 mi | 46 min | 0G | 73°F | 29.96 | 61°F | ||
| 45215 | 34 mi | 50 min | 64°F | 59°F | 0 ft |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KSYR SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL,NY | 8 sm | 21 min | E 05 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 73°F | 63°F | 69% | 30.00 | |
| KFZY OSWEGO COUNTY,NY | 22 sm | 21 min | S 04 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 72°F | 63°F | 73% | 30.00 |
Montague, NY,
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