Saturday, January25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Brewerton, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 5:08PM Saturday January 25, 2020 10:11 PM EST (03:11 UTC) Moonrise 8:10AMMoonset 5:54PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 254 Pm Est Sat Jan 25 2020
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Snow, sleet and rain early this afternoon, then rain with a chance of snow showers this evening. A chance of rain and snow showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Rain and snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Snow and rain showers in the evening, then snow showers overnight. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers likely in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LOZ044 Expires:202001260415;;506055 FZUS51 KBUF 251954 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 254 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-045-260415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brewerton, NY
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location: 43.2, -76.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 260300 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1000 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure will continue to track slowly to the northeast along the U.S. Canada border through the rest of the weekend with cold air moving in behind it and scattered snow and rain showers. Seasonable temperatures continue next week before a dry period returns by the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/.

10 PM update .

The bulk of the precipitation is moving out of our forecast area this evening, though an enhanced band of rain and wet snow continues to rotate toward our northeastern counties. Additional snow accumulations will be light.

Temperatures are running slightly below plan. We lowered minimums to the NBM guidance, which came in a little cooler than the last run.

330 pm update . Main concern in the near term remains focused on the tail end of the heavier precipitation moving through the western Catskills, which may produce periods of heavy snow, sleet and rain . causing slippery/hazardous road conditions. Will also focus on the snow and rain wrapping around the slowly departing low pressure system tonight, Sunday and Sunday night.

Large cut-off low pressure system over the Great Lakes will continue to track slowly to the e/ne tonight and Sunday with a couple spokes of embedded short waves rotating around the system. The initial s/w is associated with a surface low which formed near Delaware earlier today and continues to lift to north . and will eventually phase with the parent low to the west. Strong WAA, plenty of moisture advecting in from the south, and upper level support from the short wave provided all the ingredients for a persistent band/area of enhanced rain/sleet/snow right through the center of the forecast area.

The short wave will continue to lift to the northeast late this afternoon and into the early evening. The center of the primary upper low will track east along Lake Ontario tonight and combine with cooling temperatures into the upper 20s and lower 30s at the surface . and around -4 to -6 C at 850mb to trigger the chance for more scattered snow showers. There may be somewhat a lull early Sunday and into the afternoon as the low centers moves to the east and weak ridging aloft moves overhead. The snow is also expected to mix with some rain at times through the day as temperatures climb a few deg above freezing. This will cut back on any light snow accumulations. Winds are also expected to back to the w/sw . and weaken the threat for lake enhancement.

By Sunday night into Monday, a secondary lobe of energy rotating around the back side of the departing system will drop in from the north, and bring with in a slightly colder air mass . 850mb temps around -8 C, and a more nwly fetch across Lake Ontario. The combination of lake enhancement and the forcing from the upper s/w should allow for an uptick in shower intensity and coverage Sunday night. Overnight lows Sunday night will be only a couple degrees colder . down into the mid to upper 20s.

Snow amounts will be relatively minor with around 1 inch tonight . then another inch or so Sunday/Sunday evening, and then 1-2 inches Sunday night. Total snow amounts tonight through Sunday night will range from around 1 inch or less for most areas . but 1-3 inches in the hills south of Syracuse, and 1-4 inches into northern Oneida County.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. For Monday and Monday night, a nearly vertically stacked (barotropic) cyclone will persist over New Brunswick or there abouts leading to a deep west to northwest flow over NY and PA. This flow will have copious moisture but it won't be that cold with 850 mb temperatures around -6C to -8C. Lake Ontario temperatures are about +7C so this leaves marginal lake induced instability. So with some lake moisture plus a lot of synoptic moisture and a west to northwest flow upslope into central NY and northern PA, scattered snow showers and flurries should be widespread Monday into Monday night with highest POPs in north central NY. This includes the highlands between BGM and SYR. Farther south POPs will be lower with maybe a few flurries reaching toward the Poconos. The other issue, especially later on Monday into Monday night/Tuesday is the height of the inversion which tops out around 850 to 800 mb. Temperatures at the top of the inversion are around -8C or so which suggests potential that not all clouds glaciate leading to patchy freezing drizzle/drizzle. This becomes more likely later Monday and especially Monday night/Tuesday as the inversion falls a bit. This is as per latest NAM and GFS model soundings. Ran forecast builder's POT_winter weather procedure and it comes up with decent probabilities for freezing drizzle based on the temperatures aloft. We will introduce some freezing drizzle for Monday into Monday night/Tuesday.

For Tuesday, northwest flow continues but the lower levels begin to dry out with the inversion dropping more. An upper level short wave passes by which cools the upper part of the inversion enough for more ice crystals. But, this occurs with drying so we will have flurries/freezing drizzle/drizzle with POPs diminishing.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. High pressure builds in across NY and PA from Tuesday night into Thursday on the GFS and Euro with the CMC showing an upper level wave moving across NY and PA Thursday. The CMC is an outlier here. NBM shows less than 15 POPs so we will keep dry this far out. Next more significant system for next weekend is looking highly uncertain. Latest 12z GFS, euro and CMC are not phasing the northern branch wave with the southern wave and hence this looks to not be that big of a deal. Of course we are 6 to 8 days out and we are at the edge of predictability given the details we need for our forecasts. So best course this far out is to go with NBM POPS and temps, winds etc given it is a blend of many models, and ensembles.

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Abundant moisture, wet ground and snow, and light winds will result in occasional LIFR conditions overnight with drizzle and light snow. Towards morning, a westerly flow of somewhat drier air will develop slow mixing the column allowing for improving conditions, but snow and rain showers will still be possible at times, especially at RME and SYR.

Outlook . Sunday . IFR and MVFR conditions likely with a mix of rain and snow.

Monday through Tuesday . Occasional restrictions especially CNY in snow showers. Mainly VFR at KAVP.

Wednesday and Thursday . Clear with VFR conditions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . BJT NEAR TERM . BJT/DJP SHORT TERM . DJN LONG TERM . DJN AVIATION . BJT/DGM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 29 mi53 min 36°F 1008.4 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 81 mi71 min WSW 11 G 14 38°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 82 mi59 min 37°F 1008.7 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY6 mi77 minSSW 54.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist34°F32°F92%1009.2 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY20 mi77 minSW 46.00 miFog/Mist34°F30°F89%1009.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9E13E11E10E11E11E16
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E13E10E8NE10E10E9E7E8CalmCalmE5CalmCalmW4SW5SW5
1 day agoCalmE5E5E5E4CalmE3E4E6E5E5E5E8E7NE8E7E8E8E7E10E7E10E7NE10
2 days agoSE4CalmCalmE3CalmE4E3E4E4E4E4NE3E4E3E4NE5NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmE4E4E3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.