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LOZ044 Expires:202311302215;;657952 Fzus51 Kbuf 301446 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 946 am est Thu nov 30 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-302215- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 946 am est Thu nov 30 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
This afternoon..South winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers likely in the morning, then rain in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Rain in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Showers during the day, then a chance of showers Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers during the day, then rain showers Sunday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely during the day, then rain and snow showers likely Monday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.

LOZ005
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FXUS61 KBGM 010012 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 712 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
Increasing clouds expected overnight ahead of our next system that will bring rain to the region on Friday. The weekend will have additional shower chances with mild, above average temperatures expected into the beginning of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
325 PM Update...

A stationary front draped over the upper Great Lakes will drift southward tonight. Out ahead of the this front a weak upper level ridge is over the Northeast U.S. with warm and dry conditions. Unfortunately, plenty cirrostratus has been able to spread across the ridge and over the region, which will not make for favorable viewing of a potential aurora late tonight. Clouds will continue to increase overnight as the stationary front drifts southward and short wave approaches tomorrow morning out of the Ohio Valley. This wave will move into NE PA and NY by early tomorrow afternoon and widespread rainfall will overspread the region. Temperatures will remain warm tomorrow with highs in the generally in the low 40s, so expecting mostly rain with this system, but can't rule out a few wet snowflakes across the higher elevations of the Catskills.

Widespread moderate rainfall will start to wind down tomorrow evening as the supporting short wave exits, however the stationary front will remain in our vicinity. This will be the focus for still some drizzle or light rain through the overnight hours. Temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 30s overnight so not expecting any wintry precipitation.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
235 PM Update...

A stationary front will stretch across northern NY as a weak low moves along the boundary from the west. Rain showers will develop along the boundary. Areas north of the Southern Tier will have the best chance for showers, though a stray shower or two cannot be ruled out along the Twin Tiers. Warm southwesterly flow will help push temperatures into the 40s and 50s during the daytime. Drier air will move in from the south overnight and gradually cutoff showers across the northern portions of the region. A low far off the coast will bring some showers to areas inland, including NEPA and south- central NY late Saturday night and into early Sunday morning. Lows will be mild, only falling into the upper 30s to low 40s.

Showers from this system will continue after sunrise Sunday morning but should taper off by around midday as this system moves north.
Meanwhile, a more organized system will be in the works as a trough digs over the Central US during the day Sunday. This low will be a lake cutter with the center either passing through or to the north of the region. Temperatures will remain warm enough for just rain as showers become more widespread later in the day. Rain showers will continue into the overnight hours with wet snow mixing with the rain in the higher elevations. Little to no snow accumulation is expected. There does remain some uncertainty with the track of this system which will factor into ptypes. NBM guidance was favored at this time. Temperatures Sunday will max out in the 40s and 50s once again before falling into the 30s overnight.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
235 PM Update...

The aforementioned system will be quick to exit Monday morning.
Behind it, cold air begins to filter into the region and will be accompanied by northwest flow. This will kick off some lake effect precipitation. Warm temperatures will favor rain initially with some wet snow possibly mixing in late in the day and overnight. Late Monday night and early Tuesday morning, rain will transition to snow in higher elevations while the warmer valley areas may stay as rain or see a rain/snow mix. Borderline near-surface temperatures make the ptype forecast challenging at this time as a couple of degrees will mean the difference between rain and snow. By midweek, the forecast becomes more uncertain. Lake effect showers will likely continue into Tuesday and even into Wednesday under cold, northwest flow. Some solutions bring in high pressure Wednesday with more quiet conditions. A low will dip south just west of the region and may clip the region late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning with additional snow showers. Another system will be on its heels heading into the second half of the week.

Temperatures will trend cooler throughout this period. Highs on Monday will be in the 40s, but then only reach the 30s by midweek.
The cooling trend with the lows will not be as drastic, but sub- freezing temperatures are expected throughout this period.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions expected across all terminals through Friday morning.

Increasing LLWS is expected tonight as mostly southerly winds at the surface increase to 40-45kts and turn with height to SWerly.
This is expected to remain over the area until the early morning hours.

The next storm system is expected to move into the region during the late morning/early afternoon hours. Conditions are expected to fall to MVFR then quickly to Fuel Alt by early afternoon.
MVFR conditions will stick around through the end of the TAF period. There is a chance that ITH/BGM/SYR/RME see IFR ceilings, but confidence in this was low across all terminals except RME, where conditions look ripe enough for IFR ceilings beginning in the mid-afternoon hours.

Outlook...

Friday Evening/night...Restrictions likely, especially afternoon and evening as a weather system brings rain and fog to the area. Some wet snow could mix at times over the hilltops.

Saturday through Monday...Possible restrictions due to rain showers.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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