Saturday, July11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Brewerton, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:34AMSunset 8:45PM Saturday July 11, 2020 5:18 PM EDT (21:18 UTC) Moonrise 11:34PMMoonset 11:02AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202007112115;;677406 Fzus51 Kbuf 111321 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 921 Am Edt Sat Jul 11 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-112115- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 921 Am Edt Sat Jul 11 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 pm edt this evening through Sunday morning...
Rest of today..West winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. A chance of showers late this morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms early this afternoon. Showers and Thunderstorms late. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds late. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 10 knots or less increasing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Monday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers Wednesday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 46 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brewerton, NY
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location: 43.2, -76.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 111919 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 319 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

SYNOPSIS. A low will track across the area into the evening bringing showers and thunderstorms. A second low will arrive late in the day Sunday and bring yet another round of showers and storms into the evening.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Sharp wave and surface circulation shown clearly on radar and currents is heading east along the NY/PA order this afternoon. Convection spinning out ahead of the low will be followed by a solid area of rain and embedded convection associated with the low center. There is a chance of storms approaching sever limits as they head into the forecast area where better instability and shear awaits. PWATS this evening approaching two inches will allow for some good soakers so some hydro issues are possible. Good news is that the system is progressive limiting the threat.

Ridging arrives late tonight and early Sunday ahead of the next wave. NAM shows instability and some convection firing ahead of the wave so we may see more thunderstorms in the afternoon Sunday. Short wave itself pushes through in the late night and the trof axis is over the western zones. This will allow for showers and thunderstorms to linger through the end of the near term.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. For Monday, an upper level short wave trough will be over central NY to central PA at 12z. This trough will move into eastern NY by 18z as another upper level low drops southeast across southeast Ontario toward NY/northern PA. Surface-based CAPEs were running around 1000 J/kg or so as per NAM in the morning with less CAPE in the afternoon. This is related to low-level weak dry advection on a northwest flow behind the first upper level wave. The GFS has CAPE more in line with the diurnal cycle but in most of central NY/northeast PA CAPE values were less than 500 J/kg in the afternoon. Main axis of CAPE remains southeast of our forecast area in the afternoon. The 12z Euro is similar to the GFS and has less than 500 J/kg across our forecast area through the day.

Initially in the morning, the first upper wave and associated low- level southerly jet will have numerous showers and some thunderstorms especially east of I-81 and south of the NY thruway. This activity will swing east w/ the first upper wave. By afternoon, the next upper wave will be working on an air mass than is not that unstable so POPS will be higher in the morning from first wave and wane some in the afternoon.

For Monday night and Tuesday morning, upper level trough will drop southeast across NY and northern PA with cooling at mid-levels. NAM and Euro have some CAPE with scattered showers with the GFS much more stable and no precipitation. We will use the NBM for POPs given the differences.

By Tuesday afternoon, upper level trough will be east of central NY and northeast PA with maybe a few lingering showers in our far eastern counties.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. For Tuesday night and Wednesday, high pressure will dominate the weather with fair weather, seasonally warm temperatures and fairly low humidities.

For Thursday, southerly flow of increasing moisture and warmth begins as a wave and front approaches the eastern Lakes. We have introduced a chance of showers and thunderstorms as a result.

Models diverge Friday into Saturday with a lot of uncertainty. We will stick to NBM for now.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Sharp upper wave and surface low will pass through the area this afternoon bring scattered showers and thunderstorms along with brief MVFR and IFR restrictions. Wave moves bodily through the area this evening with more rain and embedded thunder so more widespread MVFR and IFR conditions are likely. Late tonight drier air arrives behind the wave beginning a slow improvement in conditions that will continue into Sunday.

Outlook .

Sunday night through Tuesday . Continued unsettled weather with afternoon showers and thunderstorms leading to occasional restrictions.

Tuesday night through Thursday . VFR other than potential valley fog at KELM late night-early morning.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . DGM NEAR TERM . DGM SHORT TERM . DJN LONG TERM . DJN AVIATION . DGM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 29 mi49 min NW 7 G 11 74°F 1000.5 hPa71°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 81 mi79 min E 6 G 8 72°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 82 mi49 min 72°F 1001 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY6 mi25 minS 15 G 2410.00 miMostly Cloudy85°F66°F53%999.2 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY20 mi25 minNNW 510.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity Light Rain75°F70°F84%1000.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9E10E9E5CalmCalmN4N5NE5E3NW3CalmW6W6W3W8W7W9SW44SE7SE12
G31
SE10
G14
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G24
1 day agoCalmS6S6E6SE5SE5SE7SE5CalmS4SE6SE4SE5SE6E7E7E6E8E6E9E10SE10
G16
SE11
G19
SE13
G20
2 days agoS7S6S6S5S6S4CalmE4E4E3E5E4SE4E4E4CalmE434--E4E34SE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.