Wednesday, July17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brewerton, NY

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Sunrise 5:39AMSunset 8:42PM Wednesday July 17, 2019 4:34 AM EDT (08:34 UTC) Moonrise 8:27PMMoonset 5:10AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201907170915;;758620 Fzus51 Kbuf 170213 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 1013 Pm Edt Tue Jul 16 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-170915- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1013 Pm Edt Tue Jul 16 2019
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..East winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Friday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 71 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brewerton, NY
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location: 43.2, -76.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 170813
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
413 am edt Wed jul 17 2019

Synopsis
A wave of low pressure with tropical moisture will produce
showers and thunderstorms today into tonight, some with locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Heat and humidity builds through
the end of the week thanks to southerly return flow around a
bermuda high. Other passing disturbances the next few days will
result in at least occasional chances for thunderstorms.

Near term through Thursday
400 am update...

main concern is for the potential for locally heavy rainfall
and resultant possible flash flooding as a wave of low pressure
passes through with tropical moisture, especially northeast
pennsylvania into southern portions of new york. However, a few
storms this afternoon could also contain damaging wind gusts,
which poses another issue.

Several ingredients are coming together that point to a flash
flood threat this afternoon through evening. While a flash flood
watch has not yet been issued, one may get hoisted at any time
based on new data coming in which will help narrow down areas of
greatest threat. Tropical moisture from the remnants of barry,
is riding enhanced southwesterly flow up into our region, ahead
of dampening upper wave. Wave of low pressure is set to come
through during peak heating hours, which then will squeeze a
front from the low track around the southern tier of new york,
southward into pennsylvania. At the same time, forces ascent
will occur ahead of the wave aloft, with our region in the right
entrance region of an upper jet that gets positioned along the
saint lawrence seaway. Not only that, but precipitable water
values and warm cloud depths will both be anomalously high.

Precipitable water of 2.0-2.2 inches, and warm cloud depths of
12-13 kft. Soundings take on a moist-adiabatic appearance yet
still have plenty of instability especially from the twin tiers
southward.

This will all promote very efficient downpours high rainfall
rates. High resolution ensemble forecast (href) probabilities
suggest a likelihood of 2000 j kg convective available potential
energy (cape) reaching at least the wyoming valley if not the
ny-pa border, and 1000 j kg CAPE all the way to the ny thruway.

Href also depicts 1 to 1.5 inch ensemble means, with potential
for isolated 3 inch plus maxima showing up in pockets of the
southern tier ny through northeast pa. Instability will be
greatest to the south, yet further north will have more low
level convergence upper level forced ascent. Monitor the weather
closely today, including for possible flash flood watches and
perhaps eventual warnings.

The other concern for today is potential for damaging wind
gusts. Shear will not be overwhelming, but the deep 25-35 knot
flow throughout almost the entire 0-6km layer as well as good
amount of CAPE may promote strong winds. To the north, shear
will be a tad stronger and thus mixing down of gusty winds may
occur. To the south instability will be greater and so wet
microbursts will be possible directly under storm cores given
the storm environment.

While showers and embedded thunder may occur this morning,
especially twin tiers northward; the timing for the main
problems - flash flood potential and strong to severe storms
from gusty winds - will be this afternoon through evening as the
wave of low pressure passes. Activity will then wind down
overnight with very muggy conditions and lows of 65-70 degrees.

A lingering mid level circulation will be across the east-
central portion of the area Thursday. This will allow showers
and embedded thunderstorms mainly from i-81 east during the day.

It will be warm and humid, with highs reaching well into the
80s and dew points near 70. Despite humidity at the surface,
much lower precipitable water values overall along with weak
shear suggest any convective activity will be of low impact.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday night
Chances for showers and some rumbles of thunder continue mainly
east of i-81 Thursday night behind the exiting wave as
temperatures drop into the upper 60s. Oppressive heat and
humidity will then build into the region with a ridge of high
pressure across the SE us. Models continue to indicate
1000-500mb thickness up to 580-582dm, while 850mb temperatures
peak at around 20c to 22c. This will give rise to temperatures
in the upper 80s and low 90s Friday, and in the low to mid 90s
Saturday. With dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, heat
indices are expected to peak around 96f to 103f Friday, and a
couple degrees warmer on Saturday. Little relief can be expected
for the overnight hours, with lows in the low to mid 70s both
nights. Holding off on heat headlines at the moment given active
weather over the next day, but heat indices will likely meet
criteria.

Otherwise, with warm, humid, unstable airmass and the ridge
beginning to flatten across ny state, scattered thunderstorms
would not be out of the question both days - especially across
our northern cwa.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday
Heights start to fall Sunday, with a frontal boundary draped
across the area helping to touch off additional isolated to
scattered storms throughout the day. Slightly cooler
temperatures would be expected, especially north of this
boundary - but highs should still peak in the upper 80s and low
90s. Temperatures fall back into the mid upper 60s Sunday night
with lingering showers and rumbles of thunder ahead of an
approaching surface trough. This will drag a cold front through
the area Monday, with scattered showers and storms lingering
throughout the day before largely tapering off Monday evening.

High pressure slowly starts to build in next Tuesday, and while
most of the area should remain dry, an isolated shower or rumble
of thunder would be possible before this can really take
control.

Temperatures in the 80s Monday afternoon fall back into the 60s
overnight. Even cooler weather is expected Tuesday with highs in
the mid upper 70s and lows in the mid upper 50s.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
A very moist atmosphere is in place, which along with a wave of
low pressure that will pass through the region today, will
result in showers and thunderstorms. For now, most terminals
will beVFR other than briefly at kavp prior to dawn due to
moisture riding up the valley in the wake of earlier showers.

A lead wave of showers will carry across ksyr-krme later this
morning with lowering of ceilings to fuel alternate levels.

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will develop midday
through afternoon, then shunt east in the evening while leaving
behind ceiling restrictions. Confidence in thunder is high
enough for kith-kelm-kbgm-kavp to include timing in tafs with
the passage of the main wave of low pressure; indeed there
could be more than one storm at any of those terminals. Further
north, thunder is also possible at ksyr-krme but there is more
uncertainty including timing. Monitor for amendments; upcoming
taf sets could include thunder for ksyr-krme if confidence
increases. Winds will be variable or light southwest today,
veering yet still light this evening. However, any storm cells
could cause erratic wind gusts.

Outlook...

late Wednesday night through Sunday... Unsettled weather pattern
continues with a series of disturbances providing chances for
showers and storms yet it will beVFR most of the time.

Brief localized restrictions possible. Potential for fog each
night especially at kelm, but it will depend on how much debris
clouds are leftover from daytime showers and thunderstorms.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Mdp
near term... Mdp
short term... Hlc
long term... Hlc
aviation... Mdp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 29 mi59 min S 5.1 G 6 73°F 1012.6 hPa71°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 81 mi35 min SW 4.1 G 5.1 74°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 82 mi59 min 73°F 1011.5 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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SE2

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY6 mi41 minNNW 310.00 miLight Rain72°F70°F94%1012.8 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY20 mi41 minSW 310.00 miOvercast72°F69°F91%1012.6 hPa

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3E4NE6SE4CalmSW8W11
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SW7S5S7S7S9SW6S4CalmE6N3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSW4W3CalmNW6W4CalmN7N7NW8NW7N7N5NE3CalmE3E5SE5CalmE5E4E3
2 days agoW9W7W8W9
G18
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NW12NW8NW6NW8NW5CalmCalmCalmS3SW4SW4N3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.