Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Constantia, NY

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 8:00PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 12:38 PM EDT (16:38 UTC) Moonrise 10:05PMMoonset 10:59AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201908212115;;986295 Fzus51 Kbuf 211438 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 1038 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-212115- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1038 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Thursday evening...
This afternoon..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south less than 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Partly cloudy. Waves subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. Due to upwelling, the water temperature off rochester is 56 degrees. Meanwhile, the central lake ontario buoy water temperature is 71 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Constantia, NY
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location: 43.21, -76.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 211417
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
1017 am edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
A couple waves of showers and thunderstorms will carry through
the region this morning through afternoon. After remaining
activity diminishes this evening, a cold front will pass
Thursday with isolated to scattered showers, especially for
northeast pennsylvania. Dry high pressure builds in behind the
front with cooler fall-like weather through the weekend.

Near term through Thursday
1000 am update... Morning convection is now exiting the forecast
area, with just scattered showers behind it. Latest visible
imagery shows the area mostly draped with clouds convective
debris and short wave is very clear on satellite and about to
enter our far western forecast zones. The cloud cover is going
hinder diurnal heating and thus instability is likely going to
be quite weak as this next wave passes. There could be a few
breaks in the clouds that allow some heating, but the timing of
the wave is such that even if we do clear in some spots, there
will be very little time to destabilize. Behind this short wave,
water vapor shows very dry air subsidence, so scattered to
widespread storms looks unlikely... Especially with the forcing
pushing east out of the region this afternoon. Have adjusted pop
accordingly and still leave likely showers storms across our far
eastern forecast zones later this afternoon.

350 am update...

main concern will be potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms as well as locally heavy rainfall that could
result in isolated urban small stream flooding. That being said,
it is a complicated situation with a few waves translating
through the area, muddling the organization of things.

Southwest flow is in place aloft, advecting in more moisture
which will cause precipitable water values to reach 1.7-1.9
inches today. An initial lead perturbation embedded within the
flow unexpectedly touched off nocturnal convection quite a bit
earlier than anticipated. These have mainly focused along and
east of a binghamton to norwich to richfield springs line in ny,
as well as wayne county pa. Radar has shown indications of small
hail at times, with a quick quarter to half inch of rain
observed and radar-estimated under the cores with a few narrow
strips closer to three-quarters of an inch. This storm cluster
will pull out of the area before dawn, yet there will be others.

Meanwhile, the more well-advertised wave is still expected to
carry west to east across the region later this morning. It
currently has convection associated with it in far western ny,
extending down the oh-pa border. It will not be reliant on
surface heating, and should be able to harness the 500-1000 j kg
of convective available potential energy aloft. A spoke of
somewhat higher midlevel lapse rates exists with that wave;
exceeding 6 degrees celsius per kilometer. Thus with the fuse
already lit and a good shortwave to focus on, there is no real
reason why it cannot move through our area in the form of
continued thunderstorms. Shear with this wave however will be
rather limited, but the downpours from both waves this morning
may prime the pump for water problems with any additional
convection this afternoon. Warm cloud depths are also reaching
12 kft agl or more, which points to heavy downpour potential.

We will thus have to monitor for possible flash flooding in the
more sensitive areas later today, albeit isolated due to the
speed of individual cells.

Actual cold front will start to approach the area late today,
yet a pre-frontal trough will sneak ahead of it to provide
another opportunity for convection from mid afternoon northwest
to early evening southeast. The line itself may be thin with
gaps, but there will probably be enough time for at least some
heating to be realized between the morning wave and the
afternoon one. Also, an elevated mixed layer will spread in
aloft to add a bit more instability, along with increased deep
layer speed shear. The storm prediction center includes our
area in a marginal to slight risk for severe thunderstorms
today, with the somewhat higher threat tilted towards northeast
pa and along-east of i-88 in central ny. Pockets of damaging
wind will be the main concern with the storms today, though at
least some small hail could also occur. Things wind down
quickly this evening with departure of the wave and loss of
diurnal heating.

Finally, the surface front itself will dip into central ny
overnight-early Thursday, and then northeast pa by midday. A
shallow deck of clouds and spotty showers are anticipated along
it. However, the front may slow down a bit, awaiting another
shortwave passage, Thursday afternoon. This may allow diurnal
heating to generate new showers and embedded thunder from
greater scranton wilkes-barre to the poconos and southern
catskills in the afternoon; highs may actually still get into
the 80s there. Generally speaking though, most of the area will
be in a post-frontal breezy cooler environment Thursday with
highs in the 70s and dewpoints falling into the 50s.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night
Uncertainty remains in the forecast for Thursday night, as there are
lingering model differences. The latest 00z GFS sweeps the surface
front southeast of the area, with a surface ridge nosing in from
canada. Meanwhile the 00z ECMWF and NAM hang the front up a bit
further north, which allows a weak wave of low pressure to ride
along the boundary across central pa Thursday night and early
Friday. For now, increased pops from the previous forecast, closer
to the 00z superblend. It should be noted that the nbm remains even
slightly further north and higher with pops than even the latest
forecast update. Will continue to fine tune and make adjustments to
this forecast period as details in the frontal position and
available moisture become more certain. Not as cool as previous
thinking, with lingering clouds and perhaps showers around. Lows
mainly in the 50s.

Better model consensus then returns, with a dry north-northwest flow
arriving during the day Friday. This will be a very dry air mass in
the mid levels, for example 700mb rh will hover around 5-15 percent
across the region Friday afternoon. Taking a closer look at forecast
model soundings there is some moisture in the 750-900mb layer, along
with conditionally unstable lapse rates in this layer... Therefore
think there will be sct to bkn pop up cumulus development Friday
afternoon, perhaps aided by some lake moisture enhancement across
central ny. Cannot rule out a few isolated showers north of
binghamton across the higher elevations of the susquehanna
region. Otherwise, Friday will be breezy and cooler with nw
winds 8-15 mph (gusts 20 mph) and high temperatures 68-75 most
locations.

Friday night: surface ridge continues to gradually build in from
southern canada. At the same time an upper level vort MAX and
shortwave rotate down into the region from the north. This upper
level features will be lacking any significant moisture. With the
surface high in place expect winds to diminish, skies to clear and
temperatures to fall into the mid-40s to lower 50s areawide. Could
also see patchy river valley fog form late.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Seasonable or slightly cooler than average temperatures and
generally dry weather expected for much of this period.

Some minor model differences for the weekend as the 00z ECMWF pivots
a weak but closed low at 500mb and 700mb right over our area.

The GFS has this closed upper level feature much further off to
the northeast, across northern new england. The GFS would have
our area on the outskirts of this, under a dry northwest flow.

Even the ECMWF scenario would only mean a few more convective
daytime clouds and perhaps some isolated showers... As again the
mid upper level low is lacking any real moisture source. For now
basically kept the forecast dry for Saturday and Sunday, with
only a low end slight chance for a pop up showers over the
catskills by Sunday. The low level flow is northerly Saturday,
then switching to a maritime east-southeast flow by Sunday as
the surface high slides off the coast. High temperature are
forecast to be mainly in the 70s with cool overnight lows in the
upper 40s to mid-50s expected.

Minor timing differences in the models continues into early mid next
week. The GFS is again faster, sweeping a trough and frontal
boundary into the area by later Monday and Tuesday. The ECMWF has a
ridge over the area, which doesnt't break down or move out
until next Wednesday. For now leaned toward the slower drier
ecmwf solution which had better continuity with the previous
forecast and surrounding offices. Temperatures and humidity look
to gradually creep back up. Highs early next week are forecast
to be 75-85, with overnight lows in the mid-50s to low 60s.

Surface dew points get back into the 60s by Tuesday Wednesday.

Aviation 14z Wednesday through Sunday
Tricky aviation forecast with a couple waves of convection
moving across the terminals. The first will finish carrying
through the area 12z-15z. While isolated to scattered
convection will generally be possible through the day, another
primary time of focus is expected from mid-afternoon northwest
to early evening southeast due to a boundary sweeping through
with newly developing storms from daytime heating. For that
second batch there are currently no thunder groups for kelm-
kith-ksyr-krme due to likelihood of storms only just starting to
form as the boundary passes; but watch for amendments in case
confidence increases. Winds will be variable to light southeast,
will veer southwest to west later today under 8 knots, though
erratic gusts are possible in vicinity of storms. Behind the
front, at least minor ceiling restrictions are expected to
develop later tonight for the ny terminals. Depending on where
heavier rain falls today, lingering moisture tonight could cause
lower restrictions than currently indicated in the tafs.

Outlook...

Thursday... Scattered showers and possible brief restrictions as
a front passes, otherwiseVFR.

Thursday night through Sunday...VFR, except late night early
morning fog possible at kelm over the weekend.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Mdp
near term... Mpk mdp
short term... Mjm
long term... Mjm
aviation... Mdp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 30 mi57 min SSE 2.9 G 5.1 71°F 1011.6 hPa69°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 82 mi39 min Calm G 8 74°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 83 mi57 min 72°F 1010.4 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY7 mi1.7 hrsS 310.00 miLight Rain73°F69°F87%1012 hPa
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY20 mi1.7 hrsSW 310.00 miLight Rain72°F68°F87%1012.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSYR

Wind History from SYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7W6W7W10--4S5NE5E5E5----------E4E3NE3NW5----CalmS3S3
1 day agoSW9W8
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--W8W9NW8W6W4W4SW4--------CalmCalm--CalmCalmW4--SW4Calm
2 days agoS7SW7S10S12
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CalmSE3CalmSE4E3----E5--SE4----E4CalmE3CalmW9--W12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.