NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
2 AM Update...

High pressure remains in place into the weekend with mostly clear skies and no chance of precipitation. Efficient radiational cooling will lead to valley fog formation each day with most of the deeper river valleys of the Twin Tiers seeing dense fog each morning for a few hours. 500 mb heights will increase to over 580 dm by Friday so temperatures will be well above average the next few days as the ridge strengthens.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
155 AM Update

High pressure will be in control through the first half of the weekend. Temperatures will fall into the 50s both Friday and Saturday night. Light winds and mostly clear skies will also be favorable for valley fog in the early morning hours. Highs on Friday will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s. The remnants of Francine will stay in the southern US but will help strengthen the ridge and lead to a rex block.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
155 AM Update

High pressure will stay parked over the Northeast into early next week but then slow drifts eastward by midweek. This may open the door for the first precipitation chances in this forecast. An upper low remains present in the southeast next week and will drift north either as a low or open trough. This will advect moisture northward, but there is uncertainty on how far north showers will extend. Some guidance keeps dry air over the region, making it more challenging for showers to move in. For now, no significant changes were needed to PoPs and the slight chances to low chances remain in the forecast. Even if the showers hold off beyond this forecast period, cloud clover would likely increase as that system drifts northward.

Temperatures will still be warm but do trend cooler through the first half of next week. Highs will generally be in the 70s and 80s, but then cool down to 70s across the region by midweek. Lows will stay fairly steady and won't see much change with temps falling into the 50s and 60s during the overnight hours.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR conditions expected at all terminals but ELM which will see some dense fog through about 14Z. Vis and cigs at ELM will likely be below airport mins for a while from about 6Z to around 13Z before the fog begins to dissipate. BGM may get a little bit of fog right around sunrise but confidence was low so restrictions were kept out of the TAF for now.

Outlook

Thursday night through Monday...Mainly VFR; valley fog possible most mornings with restrictions at ELM.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.