Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Constantia, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Active weather pattern for the coming week as southwest flow steers moisture and shortwaves into our area, bringing rain and thunderstorm chances for much of the week.

2) The influence from a strong ridge of high pressure over the southeast US will pump warm and moist air from the Gulf into the region. Temperatures will be well above average throughout the week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A surface high slid east of the area this morning and the corresponding mid and upper level ridge axes will move east later this afternoon. At the same time, a trough pattern is developing over the western US, putting SW flow across the central US into the NE US for much of the week. This setup will allow for shortwave troughs to traverse the edge of the ridge centered off the SE US coast, putting our CWA in the "ring of fire" and bringing rain and thunderstorm chances every through the weekend.
Northern portions of the CWA currently have the best chance to see rain and storms, with less influence of the ridge and shortwaves passing near the region. How far south the rain and storms are able to develop will depend on when/if the ridge flattens a bit along it's northern edge and allow 500mb shortwaves to penetrate south. Ensemble guidance is showing 1.5 to 2 inches of rain across the northern Finger Lakes into Oneida county thru Friday, with 0.75 to 0.25 inches south of this area (amounts decrease as you go south). QPF amounts could slide north or south, depending on how the ridge is behaving when the shortwaves pass through. Higher amounts will also be possible where thunderstorms develop.

Severe thunderstorm chances have evolved over the past couple model cycles, with Tuesday and now Wednesday showing signals for severe potential. Guidance shows CAPE values above 1000 j/kg north of the Southern Tier on Tuesday, with 0-6km bulk shear around 40kts and mid level lapse rates around 7.5C/km. Guidance is less certain about Wednesday. Some guidance has backed off the amount of rain that was forecast across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, instead slowing down the shortwave associated with this rain and pushing it through our area late Wed AM. With less rain in the morning, we could get some clearing which, combined with dewpoints in the mid 60s, would allow surface temps to warm enough to break the cap. Hazards currently look to be damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes for both Tues and Wed if the ingredients come together. The severe chances will depend on timing of the shortwaves, as they would need to bring their energy to the region during peak heating and how far north the high pressure exerts its influence. Many variables and details need to become more consistent and clear, but signals are there to prepare for strong storms for portions of the area on Tues and/or Wed.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

With the expected pattern setup, hot and humid air is expected to get funneled into our area starting Monday and lasting into the weekend. The warmest days of the year are expected on Tues thru Thurs with many places hitting low 80s. The caveat here is this will not be a normal spring time warmup as humidity is going to play a factor, making it feel a little more like summer than spring.
Dewpoints are expected to climb into the mid 50s Monday and into the upper 50s to low 60s Tues thru Thurs. Because of the higher humidity, overnight lows will not recover and remain warm, with upper 50s to mid 60s expected Tuesday and Wednesday night. That is quite warm for overnight lows this time of year. If the current forecast holds, we will be at or above record warm lows for our 3 climate sites (BGM, AVP,SYR) for both Tuesday night and Wednesday night. High temps are expected to remain above 65 thru the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Conditions will be mainly VFR this TAF period. Rain showers will move across the region Monday morning and afternoon. The highest chances will be at the Central NY terminals, but a passing shower or two will be possible at AVP around midday. Given that drier conditions are expected as similar to today, the rain should be light and should not impact visibilities much.
However, some MVFR to Fuel Alt ceilings are expected at ELM, SYR, and RME by 15-16z. Guidance keeps these lower ceilings out of ITH but brief restrictions cannot be totally ruled out around the same timeframe.

South to southeast winds will remain breezy overnight with sustained speeds of 10 to 15 kts and gusts around 20 kts. Winds will gradually become more westerly tomorrow and stay breezy with peak gusts of 25 to 30 kts. Low-level wind shear (LLWS) is expected at all terminals beginning this evening and lasting through Monday morning. Southwest to west-southwest winds at 2000ft AGL will be 40 to 50 kts.

Outlook:

Monday night...Possible restrictions from isolated to scattered showers.

Tuesday through Thursday...Restrictions possible from showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms.

Friday...Mainly VFR; low chance for lingering showers and restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.