Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Constantia, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) After a gloomy start to the week, high pressure returns tomorrow with dry, sunny conditions.

2) A frontal system then moves through on Wednesday. Conditions will be mostly dry late in the week with widespread showers possible this weekend.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak boundary continues to push through the region early this afternoon with a few showers over the Twin Tiers and northeast PA. A cold front will drop through this afternoon and evening with additional isolated to scattered showers. Thanks to early rain showers and cloudy skies, instability will be limited this afternoon, though enough will be present for isolated thunderstorms. With weak shear, stronger storms are not a concern. Showers today will be fairly light, though with any thunderstorms, brief downpours will be possible. Showers will move out late this evening and high pressure builds in to bring dry conditions tonight through Tuesday night.
Clear skies, light winds, and moisture from today's rain will lead to fairy widespread chances for fog by Tuesday morning. Under sunny skies, it will burn off much quicker tomorrow than it did today.
Prior to the next batch of rain early Wednesday, fog will be possible once again Tuesday night.

Temperatures tonight will fall into the 50s and low 60s. Despite blue skies and sunshine, temperatures will only climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s with cooler air still being advected in following today's frontal passage. Tuesday's overnight temperatures will be similar to tonight, 50s and low 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Another cold front will drop through the region on Wednesday with the next round of scattered showers. As the front moves through, showers will fall apart and it is possible that southern areas of the region see no rain at all. Despite the early arrival and sunny skies in the morning, models have little instability for the region.
Strong mid-level flow will enhance 0-6 km shear values to 40 to 50 kts. As usual, the mid-level lapse rates look to be minimal. So while thunderstorms will be possible along the front, confidence is low that there will be strong storms and this seems to be SPC's thinking as well with general thunder over most of the region. With this front, there is still uncertainty on timing and shower coverage as some solutions like the GFS hold the line of showers together longer than other guidance.

Following the front, high pressure will build into the region. There will be some weak disturbances that follow the flow of the upper level trough over the eastern US Thursday and Friday. With these systems, there is uncertainty on the exact tracks and how widespread the precipitation will be. With each of these systems passing near the coast, showers may clip portions of northeast PA and the Catskills while central NY stays dry.

High pressure will stay in control though the start of the weekend.
The next system approaches from the west Saturday night into Sunday.
Guidance have a deepening trough with a stacked low developing over the Great Lakes. There are some differences on the low placement and that will impact how quickly this system passes through. This far out, the GFS/AIGFS are outliers with the system more north and much quicker with its departure.

Temperatures will generally be cooler during the second half of the week. Highs will be in the 70s and low 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s, though 40s will also be possible at times for the typically cool spots.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Widespread IFR ceiling restrictions are expected this morning.
Patchy fog and associated visby restrictions cannot be ruled out as well, but the large majority of restrictions will be from low ceilings/stratus. Slow improvement in restrictions is expected by the late morning. By the mid-late afternoon, all terminals should return to VFR. Isolated showers are also possible this morning, but confidence was only high enough to include at KRME and KSYR.

Fog is expected to develop late tonight/early Tuesday morning, which will likely result in IFR-or-worse restrictions at at least KELM, and possibly KITH and KRME as well.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday morning...Mainly VFR. Some potential for early morning fog, mainly at KELM.

Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night...Scattered showers and chance of thunder with associated restrictions possible.

Thursday through Friday...VFR other than typical early morning fog, especially KELM.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.