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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 333 Am Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. Rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds to 30 knots becoming west and diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. Snow likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Monday night. Waves 8 to 11 feet building to 10 to 13 feet, then subsiding to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A chance of rain showers Tuesday night. Waves 4 to 7 feet building to 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 091353 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 853 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
Today will be warm with high temperatures climbing into the 50s to around 60. Low pressure will then track from the Great Lakes to James Bay with a cold front moving across the area. This will bring a period of soaking rain tonight into Sunday. Colder air will then wrap in behind the front with rain changing to an accumulating wet snow Sunday night and Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The weather will be about as nice as it gets for December today, though we won't see much sunshine. Warm and moist advection aloft has even resulted in a few sprinkles over western NY this morning.
Probably will see a few more brief sprinkles into early afternoon during stronger warm air advection aloft. Southerly downsloping already has temperatures in the 50s across the lake plains west of Rochester early this morning. Although considerable cloud cover will remain today, warm frontal boundary pushing further north of the area will allow high temperatures to rise well into the 50s across the rest of the forecast area. Due to the persistent southerly downslope flow will go well above model consensus for highs today, with Buffalo and Rochester likely to top out around 60F today. Model guidance shows a few showers or sprinkles approaching Western NY again later this afternoon, but there's only a small chance of measurable rain before sunset.

Low pressure will track from Ontario Province to James Bay tonight, with a cold front and sharp mid-level trough moving into Western NY. Widespread rain will move into the area from west to east this evening, with a quarter to half inch of rain at most locations by daybreak Sunday. Elevated instability may even result in a few thunderstorms as the front moves into the area tonight. Temperatures will remain on the warm side, especially ahead of the front, with lows in the 40s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Cold front eases across the area Sunday as several waves of low pressure ride along it. With the front still to our west Sunday morning, temperatures will start out mild, but fall through the afternoon hours with strong cold air advection aloft. The period of heaviest rain should be during the first half or so of Sunday as strong frontogenetic forcing occurs along and just ahead of the front.

With the eastward trend to the axis of deeper moisture, forecasted rainfall amounts have diminished. On Sunday additional rainfall will be on the order of a few tenths of an inch west of the Genesee Valley, while the Finger Lakes and eastern Lake Ontario region could push a third to a half of an inch. Still thinking the southern Tug Hill will have the greatest rainfall with southerly upslope effects pushing perhaps two-thirds of an inch of rain Sunday.

The eastward trend to the heavy rain has also ended any risk for creeks rising towards action stage, as latest MMEFS runs of the GEFS and NAEFS have all point forecast creeks and rivers staying below action stage.

Colder air will start to make its way into the region as the cold front eases into central and eastern New York late Sunday and Sunday evening. Thermal profiles suggest a fairly sharp transition over to wet snow from west to east (first occurring for higher terrain, and latest areas southeast of Lake Ontario). Most areas will see at least some wet snow accumulation by Monday morning. Lower elevations likely less than 2 inches with higher terrain having a better potential to see higher amounts. Closer to the axis of deeper moisture the Tug Hill and western Adirondack mountains could receive a decent amount of snow, but there is still considerable difference in the models about how long the anafrontal moisture/precipitation lingers. Back to the west, it is not out of the question that a few areas just south of the western waters of Lake Ontario to have no snow accumulation with this event.

Temperatures by Monday morning should be down to near freezing or even below for most of the area. This will bring the potential for slick conditions for the Monday morning commute as residual moisture could freeze up on untreated roads along with the minor wet snow accumulation.

The wet snow on the backside of the system will exit fairly quickly on Monday. Though there will be some scattered leftover lake effect snow, at this point it appears to be light as it will be held down by limited deep moisture and less low-level cyclonic flow as ridge slips in quickly late Monday into Monday night. A few inches of snow is reasonable, with the snowband lifting towards Watertown Tuesday morning with the backing winds.

Does look like a seasonally cool day Monday with a blustery NW wind within a tight surface pressure gradient. Even though winds will gust potentially to 35 mph, the wet snow will have little blowing and drifting.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
For the long term period the weather overall looks quieter than normal compared to mid December standards. Probability of precipitation is limited to chance, as most of the period is uncertain among all guidance with minimal agreement on timing and intensity of any precip potential. Current potential for passing cold front late Tuesday with some showers, both rain and snow.
Behind the passing front there will be at least a chance for lake effect snow showers, especially southeast of Lake Ontario for Wednesday into Wednesday night. Guidance is hinting at a shortwave trough passing just north of the area Thursday morning, mainly increasing precip potential for the North Country, but also possibly extending the lake response southeast of Lake Ontario. Still too much uncertainty with this as well though, so keeping at chance POPs for now.

Temperatures for the long term period are expected to be near to a few degrees above normal. A quick passing ridge for Friday will bring warm air advection with temperatures aloft at 850 hPa warming to several degrees above zero Celsius, which would aid in above normal temperatures for the day.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Today will be mostly cloudy, but clouds will mainly be in the VFR flight category. Cigs around 4k feet will be common this morning, but will likely lift a bit during the day. A few sprinkles could occur into early afternoon. Otherwise, main area of rain will move in this evening with cigs lowering to MVFR/IFR after it starts, and lowering to mainly IFR following the frontal passage late tonight.
Winds aloft will increase resulting in some wind shear, however it appears not quite strong enough to include LLWS in the TAFs.

Outlook...

Sunday...MVFR/IFR. Breezy. Rain changing to rain/snow late.
Monday...MVFR. Breezy with a chance of snow showers.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
South/south-southeasterly flow will freshen some today, however conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria at least through the first half of the weekend. Only exception will be across the far eastern end of Lake Ontario, where southerly winds will be just enough to support Small Craft headlines.

Otherwise, a low pressure system passing across the central Great Lakes into southern Canada will support the next chance of Small Craft Advisory conditions Sunday night through Monday as cold air advects across the lower Great Lakes in its wake. Winds will likely remain elevated through the middle of next week.

CLIMATE
Today will be unseasonably warm and although forecast highs are below the record highs, both Buffalo and Rochester will be fairly close. Perhaps the better chance to break a record will be the record warmest low temperature for Dec 9th. All three climate sites were warmer than the record warmest low last night, but since the climate records run until midnight there's still a chance that it will be cooler this evening before the date changes. Based on the lastest forecast, it appears most/all of our climate sites will break the record for the warmest minimum temperatures for the date.

Records for December 9th...
Buffalo.....Record High 62; Record warmest low 50 Rochester...Record High 63; Record warmest low 50 Watertown...Record High 63; Record warmest low 44

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Sunday for LOZ045.

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