Holley, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Holley, NY

June 21, 2024 12:53 PM EDT (16:53 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:32 AM   Sunset 8:57 PM
Moonrise 8:17 PM   Moonset 3:35 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 133 Am Edt Fri Jun 21 2024

Overnight - East winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Patchy fog. Waves 1 foot or less.

Friday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.

Friday night - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.

Saturday - Southeast winds less than 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.

Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.

Sunday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.

Monday - West winds 5 to 15 knots. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Tuesday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers Tuesday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LOZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holley, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 211440 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1040 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
While it will still be uncomfortably warm and humid through this weekend, a frontal boundary oscillating back and forth over our region will support enough cloud cover and some thunderstorm activity to suppress the dangerously high heat indices.
Unfortunately, the daily thunderstorms will carry the risk of torrential downpours and even severe weather. Notably cooler and more comfortable conditions can then be expected next week, especially during the latter half.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
This morning convective activity is focused along and north of a surface frontal boundary that is draped across Lake Ontario and points eastward. Convection, along an instability boundary, is occurring across Jefferson and Oswego County, drifting towards Lewis.
MUCAPE of 1K J/KG is only expected to increase through the morning hours and as convection deepens, don't see a lot of dry air entrainment aloft, maintaining the potential for these heavy downpours into the afternoon hours. With the slow movement, and moist lower atmosphere (PWATS 1.71 inches on the Buffalo 12Z sounding this morning), heavy downpours of rain are likely within any convection through the afternoon, that will likely become focused towards southern regions as this frontal boundary sags southward.

While there will be some measure of showers and thunderstorms with this boundary, overall coverage appears to be limited right now.
That said...have placed the best coverage for the afternoon (higher PoPs > 50%) across the S. Tier (closer to the NY/PA line) and into the Genesee Valley/western Finger Lakes region. This is supported by most Hi-res guidance. It is also highlighted by SPC with a MRGL risk for severe storms. We should see most of the activity today occur with peak heating. Highs today (a few degrees cooler) will be found in the 80s to near 90F in spots.

Tonight...most convection should slowly wane with the loss of daytime heating. The weak east to west frontal boundary to our south is also advertised to return back north as a warm front. We could see a few showers or even a thunderstorm as it returns.
Otherwise...mild and muggy night with lows in the 60s to low 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Heading into the weekend with zonal flow aloft, what was a stalled surface front Friday night will have gradually shifted north as a warm front by Saturday morning. A weak shortwave passing through southern Canada, will cause the warm front to wiggle some throughout the day Saturday and result in a few showers and thunderstorms with its passage late Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon. The best location for shower and storm activity will lie inland from the lakes (across Allegany County and southeast of Lake Ontario). With the warm front lying across the region and the North Country lying to the north of the boundary, temperatures here will be on the cooler side with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Otherwise, areas to the south of the boundary will see highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

The next upper level trough will begin to dive across the upper Midwest Saturday night, causing associated low pressure to strengthen across the central Great Lakes and lift the warm front north of the region. This will place the area beneath the warm sector, supporting ample warm moist air advection. Overall the chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue throughout Saturday night, with the best likelihood for activity lying across the North Country due to its close proximity to the front.

The now 995mb surface low and associated trough will track to the north of the area and result in a windy day Sunday, given the 850mb winds ramp up to nearly 45 knots. Overall this will support the passage of a strong cold front across the area, likely producing thunderstorms with its passage. Organized convection featuring damaging winds will also be possible due to the ample wind shear across the region. With this cold frontal passage, the arrival time will play an important role with convection. Model consensus continues to support the front passing across WNY early enough to hinder organized convection whereas the timing of the front passing across central NY will support better organized convection.

The cold front will then slide to the east of the area Sunday night, supporting lingering showers and thunderstorms to taper off from west to east.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
To start off the new work week, a potent shortwave trough aloft will did across New England Monday and bring increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms across the North County with lower chances elsewhere. After such a warm and humid week, it will be notably cooler and drier Monday with highs in the 70s.

Brief upper level ridging will support surface high pressure to slide across the region Monday night through Tuesday and bring the return of dry weather. Though unlike this week, it will be much cooler with highs in the low to mid 80s.

Another short trough will pass by well to the north Tuesday with an associated cold front to move across the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. Overall this will support warmer weather ahead of the cold frontal passage with a chance for shower and thunderstorms. In the wake of the front, surface high pressure will make a return in addition to, cooler air will filter across the area.

AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR across all terminals this morning. A weak frontal boundary will sag south through the region today and potentially support some showers and thunderstorms. This will mainly be the case for areas south of Buffalo and Rochester during the midday and afternoon.

Tonight...mainly VFR but there may be some fog/low status across the S. Tier at KJHW. Low confidence, so didn't include it in the TAF.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR. A chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms inland from the lakes.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Monday...Mainly VFR. A chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms inland from the lakes.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected.

MARINE
Light winds and minimal wave action is expected to continue across the Lower lakes through Saturday. There will be a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms which could produce gusty winds and higher wave action each day.

A cold front will approach the region Sunday with increasing southwest winds which may bring a period of SCAs to area lakes. Northerly flow behind the front will then bring continued choppy conditions to the lakes through Monday. High pressure builds in late Monday with diminishing winds and waves for Tuesday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 22 mi53 min 71°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 24 mi53 minNE 8.9G12 69°F 30.24
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 37 mi53 minENE 13G15 68°F 30.20
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 44 mi43 minENE 3.9G5.8 65°F 65°F30.2263°F


Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KROC GREATER ROCHESTER INTL,NY 21 sm59 minvar 0510 smMostly Cloudy82°F72°F70%30.20
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Wind History graph: ROC
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Buffalo, NY,




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