Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Holley, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 4:39PM Thursday December 12, 2019 2:21 PM EST (19:21 UTC) Moonrise 5:13PMMoonset 7:52AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 921 Am Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Rest of today..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mostly Sunny late this morning, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Mostly cloudy in the evening, then clearing. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of rain showers in the evening, then rain showers likely overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day, then a chance of snow showers Sunday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet, then subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of snow showers Monday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LOZ042 Expires:201912122215;;240460 FZUS51 KBUF 121421 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 921 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ042-122215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holley, NY
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location: 43.22, -78.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 121848 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 148 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will slide off the New England coast which will maintain dry weather across our region through most of Friday. Low pressure tracking northward along the east coast will bring slightly warmer weather and rain to the area late Friday and Saturday. Cold air will return Sunday, with lake effect snow showers across the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Surface high pressure will gradually slide off the New England coast with a southerly return flow developing across our region. This southerly flow will push the last of the lake effect snow showers off Lake Ontario northward into Canada this afternoon. Otherwise, mid-level clouds along an axis of warm air advection will move from SW-NE across the region through this evening. This axis will move north of the region tonight, with mostly clear skies developing after midnight. Despite the clear skies, a 10 to 20 mph southerly flow will hinder radiational cooling tonight. Temperatures may drop off in the most sheltered valleys this evening, but for the most part winds should keep the boundary layer mixed with low temperatures in the 20s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. 1040 mb high centered east of the Canadian Maritimes by Friday morning. This will allow for a very efficient southerly flow into western and north central New York during the day Friday. Warm air advection will help to push high temperatures into the lower to mid 40s with upper 30s over higher terrain. Dry air advection around the high gives high confidence in a dry forecast.

Models continuing to advertise a digging large scale trough across the eastern CONUS. The amplification of the trough will develop a surface low over the southeast U.S., which is then expected to deepen and move northeast into the Mid Atlantic region Friday night then along the eastern seaboard during the day Saturday. Plenty of moisture will be drawn into the area with this system. Leading edge of precipitation should push into the area from the southeast early Friday night, with some potential for a wintry mix at the onset, especially in the colder Southern Tier Valleys or interior sections of the North Country. This wintry mix, if it occurs at all, should be brief before the column warms enough for all rain for the remainder of Friday night. A widespread rain is expected to continue into Saturday. Rainfall amounts look to be from a half inch to three- quarts of an inch for the majority of the area, with some locally higher amounts possible.

Cold air advection begins to change the rain to snow late in the day Saturday, especially at higher elevations. The change over will continue Saturday night as the colder air deepens with the low pulling to the northeast of the area. There could be some minor accumulations across the higher terrain, but should be limited to no more than a couple of inches.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Sunday and Sunday night deep low pressure will push from the Lower Saint Lawrence Valley across Labrador and then out to sea . while high pressure over the Northern Plains states steadily builds east across the Great Lakes In between these two systems. a gradually weakening and drying westerly to west-northwesterly flow of colder air will persist across our region. The cold advection regime will result in morning highs in the mid to upper 30s Sunday giving way to slowly falling readings through the remainder of Sunday and Sunday night . when lows will settle into the teens across the North Country and the lower to mid 20s elsewhere Meanwhile. initially breezy to windy conditions on Sunday (worst along the eastern and southeastern shores of both lakes where winds could gust to 35-40 mph) will give way to progressively calmer conditions through Sunday night as the surface ridge builds into our region.

In terms of precipitation . even though the bulk of the synoptic precipitation will be over by the start of this period . ongoing upslope flow and deep moisture will still maintain numerous to widespread snow showers east/east-southeast of the lakes Sunday morning . with these then steadily diminishing Sunday afternoon and night as our airmass steadily dries out and inversion heights lower Similarly. much more scattered mixed rain and snow showers elsewhere on Sunday will also come to an end Sunday night. While it will indeed be breezy to windy on Sunday . have pulled the previous mention of blowing snow from the forecast as temperatures both at the surface and aloft suggest a wetter snow that will be more difficult to effectively blow around.

On Monday the surface ridge will slowly drift from New York State into New England. Apart from some dying widely scattered light snow showers/flurries southeast of Lake Ontario early on . this should result in a dry day . with partly sunny skies initially giving way to increasing clouds across western New York out ahead of the next system Meanwhile daytime highs should be a bit below average. with readings ranging from the upper 20s across the North Country to the lower to mid 30s elsewhere.

Monday night through Tuesday night the medium range guidance continues to exhibit significant discrepancies with the track of the next low pressure system. The latest GFS remains a northern outlier and tracks a deepening low directly across Lakes Erie and Ontario . which would favor a mixed precipitation event along followed by the potential for some gusty winds behind its trailing cold front . though at this point the low track appears to lie too close to our region to support a true high wind event. Meanwhile the GEM and ECMWF remain much farther south with the low track and support a potential for some snow across our region . with the extent of this potential dependent upon the exact track of the low. For now have continued to favor the more realistic- looking latter camp of models . with a general chance of snow and near to slightly below average temperatures indicated for this 36-hour period.

Following the passage of this next system . a colder west to west- northwesterly flow looks to follow for Wednesday . supporting highs back in the 20s again along with a chance of snow showers east and east-southeast of the lakes.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. There will be some lingering snow showers and lower cigs near KART through 20Z, otherwise expect widespread VFR flight conditions throughout the 18Z TAF cycle. An area of mid-level clouds will move across the region through this evening, then this will be followed by mainly clear skies. There will be a 10-15 knot southerly flow through 18Z Friday.

Outlook .

Friday night . VFR lowering to MVFR in rain and possibly some mixed precipitation. Saturday . IFR/MVFR. Rain. Sunday . Areas of MVFR/IFR in snow showers, especially southeast of the lakes. Monday . VFR. Tuesday . VFR/MVFR. A chance of snow showers.

MARINE. High pressure will slide eastward off the New England coast with a strengthening southerly flow across the lakes. These will be strongest along the east shores of Lake Ontario where Small Craft headlines were issued. It will be close on Lake Erie, but with winds marginal and offshore it probably will fall just short of criteria.

Low pressure will track across New England on Saturday with an increasing northwesterly flow which may require more Small Craft headlines.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday for LOZ045.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel NEAR TERM . Apffel SHORT TERM . TMA LONG TERM . JJR AVIATION . Apffel MARINE . Apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 22 mi58 min 29°F 1035.4 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 24 mi22 min S 7 G 8.9 29°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 37 mi22 min ESE 5.1 G 7 29°F 1034.9 hPa (-3.7)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY21 mi28 minVar 310.00 miOvercast28°F15°F58%1036.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW9NW9W10NW9N10NW11NW10NW9NW4N5N4NW3SW3S3S5S3SW4SW5SW7SW11W15
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.