Tuesday, October22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holley, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 6:21PM Tuesday October 22, 2019 10:12 AM EDT (14:12 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:39PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 1019 Pm Edt Mon Oct 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 2 am edt Tuesday...
Overnight..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Rain late. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..South winds around 10 knots becoming southwest and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
LOZ042 Expires:201910220915;;077644 FZUS51 KBUF 220219 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1019 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ042-220915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holley, NY
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location: 43.22, -78.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 221001
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
601 am edt Tue oct 22 2019

Synopsis
A slow moving cold front will cross the region today and bring a
period of widespread rainfall. In its wake... Much cooler air will
overspread the region tonight and lead to the development of some
lake effect rain northeast of the lakes... Which will then wind down
from southwest to northeast later Wednesday and Wednesday evening as
high pressure and drier air builds into the region. Another cold
front will then slowly sag across the region Thursday and Friday
while bringing some additional scattered showers... With cool and
mainly dry weather then following for the first half of the weekend.

Near term through tonight
During the course of today a mature and vertically stacked low
pressure system will meander its way northeastward from wisconsin
into central ontario province... And while doing so will ease its
trailing cold front eastward and across our region. As this occurs...

increasing moisture transport... Low level frontal convergence...

and mid upper level height falls DCVA on the front flank of this
system will bring a period of widespread light to moderate rainfall
to our area.

Across western new york... The occluding slowly weakening nature
of the parent low and the still-progressive nature of the frontal
boundary will help to keep basin average rainfall amounts from
this system largely confined to the order of a half to three
quarters of an inch... With somewhat lower amounts possible across
portions of the genesee valley and finger lakes. Meanwhile... The
eastern lake ontario region should be in line for greater overall
amounts of rainfall... With basin averages of an inch to an inch
and a half now appearing possible as a weak wave develops over
the DELMARVA region and slows down the eastward progress of the
front later today and tonight... And also feeds greater amounts
of atlantic-based moisture northward along the boundary. The above
said... We should still be able to handle this without any noteworthy
hydrologic concerns given both the longer (12-hour) duration of
the rainfall there... And the extended period of dry time we've had
since last week's round of heavier rainfall.

Following the passage of the cold front... The steadier rain will
gradually taper off during this afternoon across western new york...

and tonight east of lake ontario. In its wake... Broad mid upper
level troughing and associated wraparound moisture could still
produce a few more scattered synoptically-driven showers through
tonight. More importantly though... Our airmass will also grow
cold enough (with 850 mb temps falling to around zero celsius)
to support the development of a lake response northeast of both
lakes given the prevailing southwesterly low level flow. Off lake
erie this should begin in the form of some scattered showers by
early this evening... With these then evolving into an increasingly
well-organized lake effect rain band over time as background synoptic
moisture increases and our airmass cools... With the general
southwesterly flow directing the bulk of this activity along a
rough buffalo to batavia axis. Meanwhile off lake ontario... More
limited moisture... The later arrival of sufficiently cold enough
air... And the shorter resultant fetch across that lake should
preclude the development of more than some scattered lake effect
rain showers overnight... With the bulk of the activity there
holding off until the daylight hours of Wednesday.

With respect to temperatures... Highs out ahead of the cold front
will mainly range in the upper 50s to mid 60s today... With steady
cold air advection in its wake then sending readings back down
into the lower to mid 40s tonight. Finally... While headline-worthy
wind gusts are not anticipated... The brisk southerly to southeasterly
winds out ahead of the front could still gust to 35-40 mph at times
today across the higher terrain of the finger lakes... Over downwind
of the higher terrain east of lake ontario... And within the black
river valley in jefferson lewis counties.

Short term Wednesday through Friday
Lake induced rain showers will already be in place northeast of lake
erie as we open this period on Wednesday morning. A well aligned 240
flow of -2c h85 air will place a well defined band of steady rain
over the buffalo metro area with a 40kt flow extending the activity
northeast to the western suburbs of rochester. A cap in the vcnty of
8kft should keep the band from producing significant rainfall
amounts... Although the rain showers could be moderately heavy at
times during the first few hours of the day with 12 hour rainfall
totals possibly reaching a half inch or so near and just north of
buffalo. As the base of a shortwave trough passes east of our
region... Subtle warm advection during the afternoon will further
lower the limiting cap that will be accompanied by some synoptic
drying. This will weaken the lake effect showers... Although the axis
of the activity will move very little... Possibly drifting a bit to
the south.

Off lake ontario... The base of the aforementioned shortwave trough
will still be the west as the day begins. A moderately sheared
airmass within a general 240 flow will focus disorganized lake rain
showers near or immediately north of watertown... Although an upslope
flow will support scattered showers throughout much of the eastern
lake ontario region. Once the base of the mid level trough passes...

the lake response should become more pronounced across the northern
half of jefferson county and thousand islands region. Given the
'late' start and shorter fetch... Am not as impressed with the
forecast rainfall amounts in this region (as compared to lake erie's
activity). Amounts should hold below a half inch and likely closer
to a quarter inch for areas closest the axis of this activity.

Outside of these two lake effect areas... Cold advection strato-cu
within the cyclonic flow during the early morning will thin out
during the course of the day as weak warm advection becomes
established. This will especially be the case across the southern
tier and finger lakes regions... Away from the influences of the
additional lake moisture. While it will be notably cooler than
Tuesday... Temperatures in the 50s will actually be quite close to
where we should be for the later stages of october. The change to
the chillier weather will be exacerbated by a gusty northwest wind
that could reach as high as 35 mph from a corridor extending from
lake erie and the iag frontier to rochester.

Our forecast area will be found along the northern periphery of some
surface based ridging Wednesday night. While there may be some
lingering nuisance lake effect rain showers east of lake ontario
early on... The night should feature fair dry weather. A slowing cold
front over southern ontario will have to be watched... As it is not
out of the question that some of the associated shower activity
makes it to the far western end of lake ontario.

The weak... Moisture starved cold front will limp through our
forecast area on Thursday. While it will generate a fair amount of
cloud cover... The paltry mid level moisture and general lack of
forcing will only warrant slight to low chc pops.

Forecast confidence drops off considerably later Thursday night and
Friday... As the various guidance packages are having timing issues
with the next shortwave trough. There seems to be a split between
pushing the next trough across the lower great lakes... Or delaying
it back across the upper great lakes and mid western states while
having a stalled frontal boundary inverted sfc trough over our
region. In either case... The ensembles are suggesting high chc pops.

Will thus maintain continuity and keep chc pops to avoid and
significant flip flopping.

Long term Friday night through Monday
A mid level trough will swing from the great lakes into quebec
Friday night, de-amplifying with time. A very modest lake response
may develop east and southeast of the lakes late Friday night and
Saturday as colder air moves into the eastern great lakes. 850mb
temps get down to -3c to -5c depending on model of choice. If this
were to verify it may allow a few wet snowflakes to mix in across
the highest terrain late Friday night. Given the marginal nature of
the setup however, kept the precip type all rain for now. The
limited lake response will end later Saturday afternoon as surface
high pressure and associated dry air move into the eastern great
lakes.

Medium range guidance diverges significantly Sunday and Sunday
night. The ECMWF and gem bring a substantial southern stream system
through the ohio valley Sunday and the eastern great lakes Sunday
night, spreading clouds and showers back into our region. The 12z
gfs keeps this system suppressed over the deep southeast states.

Given the consensus between the ECMWF and gem, have continued with
low chance pops Sunday and Sunday night. This system should be
moving east of the area by Monday, with drier and somewhat milder
weather returning.

Aviation 10z Tuesday through Saturday
During the course of today a slow moving cold front will slowly push
eastward and across our region... And in the process will bring a
period of widespread rainfall and increased low level moisture that
will work across the region from west to east. This will result in
vfr flight conditions generally lowering to MVFR or lower-end
vfr... With the strong downslope southerly flow out ahead of the
front likely precluding worse conditions across the lower elevations.

This stated... Some areas of ifr may still develop across the higher
terrain... Where the above mentioned downsloping will not come into
play. Given the passage of a 40-50 knot low level jet preceding the
cold front... Some low level wind shear will also linger into the day
from about the genesee valley eastward.

This afternoon and evening the steadier rain will taper off from
west to east following the passage of the cold front... With flight
conditions generally returning toVFR in its wake. A southwesterly
flow of progressively colder air overspreading the region in the
wake of the front will then lead to the development of an increasingly
organized band of lake effect rain northeast of lake erie tonight...

along with more scattered lake effect rain showers northeast of lake
ontario. The developing lake effect activity will lead to corresponding
areas of MVFR northeast of both lakes that should affect at least the
kbuf kart terminals... And possibly kiag. Off lake erie... Some localized
ifr will even be possible as the rain band becomes better organized
overnight. Meanwhile... GeneralVFR conditions will prevail outside
of the main lake effect areas.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Wednesday night... Areas of lake effect rain and MVFR
northeast of lakes erie and ontario winding down from southwest to
northeast... OtherwiseVFR.

Thursday... MainlyVFR with a chance of showers.

Thursday night and Friday... MVFRVFR with scattered showers.

Saturday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
Out ahead of a cold front... Brisk south to southeasterly winds
will maintain advisory-level conditions on eastern lake erie into
early this morning... And through the bulk of today across eastern
lake ontario.

Following the cold frontal passage... A round of stronger southwest
winds will then develop on lake erie and western lake ontario late
this afternoon and this evening... Then will spread across the rest
of lake ontario during the course of Wednesday. This will result in
another round of advisory-worthy conditions that will last into
Wednesday night or Thursday... With the strongest winds and higher
waves persisting the longest at the eastern ends of both lakes.

Accordingly... Small craft advisories have either been extended
or hoisted as outlined below.

Looking further out in time... Winds and waves will steadily diminish
from later Thursday through the end of the week as the pressure
gradient slackens across the lower great lakes.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Thursday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory from 5 am to 11 pm edt Wednesday for
lez020.

Small craft advisory from 8 am Wednesday to 2 am edt
Thursday for loz043-044.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Thursday for loz045.

Synopsis... Jjr
near term... Jjr
short term... Rsh
long term... Hitchcock rsh
aviation... Jjr
marine... Jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 22 mi61 min 61°F 1007.9 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 24 mi73 min SSE 11 G 14 60°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 37 mi73 min S 5.1 G 11 59°F 1008.8 hPa (-0.7)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 44 mi43 min SE 16 G 19 57°F 55°F1008.7 hPa54°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY21 mi19 minS 14 G 2210.00 miOvercast62°F52°F70%1009.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8SE9SE11SE8SE10E14E12E10E8SE13SE9SE7----S12
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1 day agoSW4SW6SW6S3CalmCalmCalmNE6N6NE3CalmCalmSW3W4SW3SW3CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalm3CalmE3E4NE10NE8E6E6E7E5E4S3CalmS3CalmSW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.