Saturday, July11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Holley, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 8:53PM Saturday July 11, 2020 5:02 PM EDT (21:02 UTC) Moonrise 11:42PMMoonset 11:10AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 126 Pm Edt Sat Jul 11 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 pm edt this evening through Sunday morning...
This afternoon..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers Wednesday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ042 Expires:202007112115;;685788 FZUS51 KBUF 111726 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 126 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ042-112115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holley, NY
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location: 43.22, -78.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 111846 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 246 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

SYNOPSIS. A complex area of low pressure including the tropical remnants of Fay will move across the region through this evening. Widespread showers with this system will alleviate drought conditions, but there's also a risk of thunderstorms producing locally heavy rainfall and damaging winds. Showers and storms will taper off tonight, followed by scattered thunderstorms on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. Early this afternoon, rain has finally spread into most of western New York. The driving feature is an unusually sharp and compact shortwave which is moving across Western New York. The steadiest rains are with this feature, with radar showing spokes of convection extending outward from it. This is also producing an area of gusty northwest winds just behind it, which has caused wind gusts to around 50 mph at Erie, PA and in Jamestown. Winds with this will diminish by late afternoon as the meso-low pulls away.

There is a slight risk of flooding today, with localized rainfall amounts of 2 inches possible. Precipitable water values on the 12Z Buffalo sounding are 1.65 inches, with higher amounts likely as the tropical remnants of Fay get wrapped into the system. Following latest high resolution guidance, it appears the bulk of this will pass along or to the south of a Buffalo to Rochester to Oswego line today. In general, expect a swath of a half inch to an inch of rain with this, which would be beneficial alleviating drought conditions. However, locally higher amounts will occur in heavier or slow moving storms, which have the potential to cause flash flooding depending on location and intensity. Will have to monitor lake boundaries, and boundaries associated with the shortwave and associated low.

Also, some of these storms have the potential to become strong to severe in the afternoon through the evening hours. Although, bulk 0-6km shear values are rather weak with only 15-20 knots but BUFKIT profile soundings do show plenty of CAPE, especially for our eastern counties. SPC has parts of the area from roughly Rochester/Finger Lakes region into the North Country in a Marginal Risk for severe storms with the potential for damaging winds. Showers and thunderstorms will end from west to east tonight. Expect mostly dry and a partial clearing west of Rochester with showers/storms lingering east of Lake Ontario through the early morning hours.

It will be notably cooler, with temperatures dropping this afternoon with the onset of rain showers. Lows will range from the upper 50s to upper 60s tonight.

Trimmed back Pops for Sunday, with guidance suggesting the initial shortwave will exit quickly to the east. There still will be a broad trough across the region, which will support scattered afternoon showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Lake breeze boundaries may provide a focus showers and storms. It will be notably cooler on Sunday with highs within a few degrees of 80 at most locations.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. A deep upper level trough will progress northward across the eastern third of the CONUS Sunday night through Monday night. While the trough axis will reside overtop of the region, this pattern will allow for the passage of a shortwave across the region Sunday night. In its wake, another shortwave will pass through Monday which will cause the overall pattern to shift.

With the passage of the first shortwave Sunday night into Monday, its associated surface low and cold frontal boundary will bring chances for rain showers. Shower and storm chances will remain through Monday night as another shortwave will promote diurnally driven convection. Otherwise, temperatures Monday will warm up to mid to upper 70s across the region.

As the upper level pattern begins to shift Monday night and Tuesday, surface high pressure will begin to build eastward into the region. With the high pressure pushing in from the west, the potential for showers will diminish throughout Monday night, drying out for Tuesday. High temperatures Tuesday will rise up into the upper 70s and low 80s across the region.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The upper level ridge will flatten and move across the Northeast mid- week. Warm air advection will bring warmer temperatures back into the region with highs climbing into the upper 80s Wednesday.

The ridge continues to flatten and the flow becomes more or less zonal with the exception of a few weak shortwave troughs that move across the Great Lakes basin. An elongated area of high pressure will sit across the lower half of the Lower 48 through Saturday. Little sign of any widespread rainfall during this period however showers and thunderstorms are possible. Heat and humidity will increase into next weekend.

Supporting another heat wave are temperature forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The Day 8-14 U.S. Hazards Outlook map includes the Great Lakes region in an area for EXCESSIVE heat during the July 18-24 period . and the corresponding 8-14 temp outlook has a 70 percent bullseye for above normal temps over the region.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Showers and thunderstorms will become more widespread across all of western and north central NY this afternoon as a potent shortwave and frontal boundary pushes through the region. Conditions will vary widely with localized IFR or lower in storms, with mainly VFR outside of the storms.

Showers and storms end from west to east after 00Z with mainly VFR flight conditions tonight. A modest 10 mph wind will limit fog potential. A few scattered showers Sunday afternoon, but otherwise mainly VFR.

Outlook .

Sunday night . VFR. Monday . VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely. Tuesday and Wednesday . VFR. Thursday . VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE. A meso low associated with a shortwave will push east of Lake Erie this afternoon. Winds pick up abruptly behind this, supporting Small Craft headlines.

We got a couple reports of water spouts in Canadian Waters, and while this is not a typical setup there is a risk for waterspouts on Lake Erie this afternoon.

Tonight, winds remain elevated but should drop off enough to allow for conditions to subside below SCA on Lake Erie. On the other hand, Lake Ontario winds and waves will pick up this evening which will support SCA on Lake Ontario overnight into Sunday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Beach Hazards Statement until 2 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ019. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ041. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for LEZ040. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Sunday for LOZ042>044.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel NEAR TERM . Apffel SHORT TERM . EAJ LONG TERM . HSK/RSH/Thomas AVIATION . Apffel MARINE . Apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 22 mi44 min 72°F 1001.1 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 24 mi62 min E 6 G 8 72°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 37 mi62 min W 16 G 21 76°F 1002 hPa (-0.4)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 44 mi22 min S 1.9 G 1.9 75°F 75°F999.8 hPa73°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY21 mi68 minN 90.50 miThunderstorm Heavy Rain Fog71°F71°F100%1001.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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SE12S9SE7SE6SW6SE4S4CalmSW3SW4SW4SW5SW8W6W43NE11N9N13N9
1 day agoNE15N13NE9NE10NE7NW5N5W5SW7W5SW3SW3CalmSW3SW3S6S8SW7S8S9E8S10SE14
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2 days ago5S5SW6SW5SW3CalmCalmSW4CalmSW4SW3W3SW4SW5SW4SW54S4S5SW9W8SW10CalmS8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.