Saturday, January25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Holley, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 5:16PM Saturday January 25, 2020 9:52 PM EST (02:52 UTC) Moonrise 8:18AMMoonset 6:02PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 510 Pm Est Sat Jan 25 2020
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow and rain showers in the morning, then snow and rain showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Snow showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LOZ042 Expires:202001260415;;512350 FZUS51 KBUF 252210 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 510 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ042-260415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holley, NY
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location: 43.22, -78.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 260247 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 947 PM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

SYNOPSIS. A complex weather system moving through the Great Lakes region will bring mixed precipitation to the region early tonight before colder air gradually changes the precipitation over to snow late tonight and Sunday. Most areas should pick up an inch or two of snow accumulation by the end of the weekend with parts of the Southern Tier and Eastern Lake Ontario region receiving several inches.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. A complex storm system over the Great Lakes will continue to support precipitation over the region overnight. The parent low within the broad storm system will be centered near Lake Huron overnight . while a secondary low will make its way up the coast of New England. As the axis of this double barrelled system moves north of Lake Ontario . colder air will move back across our region. This will gradually allow the remaining rain to change to a bit of wet snow. The changeover will first take place across the higher terrain of the Srn Tier and Lake Ontario region. A wet, slushy inch or so of accumulation may stick to grassy and elevated surfaces across the Srn Tier by daybreak Sunday . with a couple inches of accumulation on the Tug Hill. Most other areas should not pick up more than a coating.

The weak surface low will then track past the Lower Lakes as it heads off to Maine on Sunday. While there will be ongoing light snow favoring the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier and Tug Hill, accumulations will again be minor as 850mb temperatures will only be in the neighborhood of -6C to -7C. Add to that, marginal surface temperatures which will again hamper snowfall accumulations. Therefore, only an additional inch or so through mid afternoon is expected across the higher terrain. Elsewhere, less than an inch if much at all. Late Sunday afternoon, another round of moisture pivoting around the upper level low will bring a better chance of accumulating snowfall. Upslope flow (westerly flow) and the above mentioned arrival of additional moisture, along with a secondary upper level trough forecast to move through Sunday night will likely bring the greatest potential for accumulating snowfall. Otherwise, total daytime accumulations will be light Sunday with the potential of only 1-3 inches at best across the higher terrain.

In terms of temperatures, which will play a critical role in accumulation will likely peak in the mid 30s for lower elevations to low 30s across higher terrain.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Stacked low pressure over southern Quebec will continue to track east Sunday night. A shortwave trough will round the base of the upper low Sunday night and upward motion will increase across the eastern Great Lakes region. Moisture will increase allowing temperature profiles to saturate through the dendritic growth zone. There is a lack of cold air behind this trough that moves through so cold air advection will be very weak overnight. Temperatures at 850mb fall to around -8C by Monday morning which is marginal for lake enhancement across Lakes that are 35-38 F. Westerly flow turns northwesterly overnight and ongoing snow showers across the region will become enhanced across the higher terrain east of both Lakes. Temperatures will also fall to the upper 20s across the higher terrain east of both Lakes to the low to mid 30s across the Lake Plains. These marginal surface temperatures across the lower elevations will keep snowfall accumulations light. Accumulating snow is expected across the higher terrain with amounts of 4-7 inches on the Tug Hill and 3-6 inches across the Chautauqua Ridge and Cattaraugus, southern Erie and Wyoming counties. The best timing for accumulating snow across the higher terrain will be Sunday evening through Monday morning. This may warrant an Advisory in future updates.

Northwest flow continues on the backside of the departing shortwave trough Monday. Snow showers will continue across the region with orographic enhancement on the higher terrain. Upstream moisture will diminish through the day as northwest flow continues. An additional 1-2 inches is possible across the higher terrain to less than inch across the lower elevations. High temperatures will reach the low 30s across the higher terrain to the mid 30s across the lower elevations.

Diminishing snow showers are expected Monday night. Low temperatures will fall to the low to mid 20s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Tuesday an upper level trough and weak surface trough will drop across our region, ushering in a cooler airmass. Point soundings display a wealth of moisture around 3-5K feet, however this is well below the dentritic snow growth zone . and with marginal 850 hPa temperatures of -7 to -8C any snow showers or lingering lake snows will be limited.

Surface high pressure will slowly build eastward from the midwest . arriving over our region by Thursday morning. Seasonable daytime high temperatures will turn cold both Wednesday night and Thursday night when interior locations will drop into the single digits to below zero.

The next weather maker will be next weekend, when both a northern and southern stream shortwave transverse the U S. The global models still have timing differences, with the 12Z GFS faster than the ECMWF. At this time both models keep the southern feature the main player as far as precipitation . with a track to our east and limited synoptic snows.

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. A slow moving storm system in the vicinity of Lake Huron will move to the north of the region on Sunday. This will generally keep unsettled weather across our forecast area . with widespread MVFR to IFR cigs expected through the TAF period. The cloud cover will be accompanied by rain showers that will become increasingly mixed with snow overnight before changing to mainly snow during the day Sunday. Vsbys will drop to LIFR in areas of snow Sunday.

Outlook .

Sunday night . IFR to MVFR with fairly widespread snow showers. Monday . IFR to MVFR cigs slowly improving to VFR. Tuesday . Mainly VFR . but MVFR in scattered snow showers. Wednesday and Thursday . Mainly VFR.

MARINE. As the axis of a surface trough pushes north of Lake Ontario tonight . stronger cold advection and a tighter sfc pressure gradient will encourage southwest winds to freshen across the region. This will lead to small craft advisory conditions on Lake Erie overnight with a general offshore flow on Lake Ontario delaying new SCAs until at least Sunday.

Continued strengthening of the winds on Sunday will lead to fresh to strong southwesterlies on both lakes. SCAs will likely be needed for all of the NY nearshore waters of Lake Ontario . especially north of Mexico bay on the east end of the lake where the flow will favor higher wave action.

As the center of the slow moving storm system exits across Quebec and the Canadian maritimes Sunday night and Monday . winds and waves will gradually subside across the region.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for NYZ006>008. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for LEZ040-041.



SYNOPSIS . RSH NEAR TERM . AR/RSH SHORT TERM . HSK LONG TERM . Thomas AVIATION . RSH MARINE . RSH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 22 mi58 min 37°F 1008.8 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 24 mi52 min WSW 11 G 14 38°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 37 mi52 min SW 5.1 G 7 36°F 1010.5 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY21 mi58 minWSW 910.00 miOvercast36°F32°F86%1009.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE10SE8SE10S11SE10SE9SE7SE9SE11SE12SE14
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1 day agoCalmSW3SE5CalmE3CalmCalmCalmE6E4E8SE5E5E4E3SE8SE7SE7SE5SE9SE7SE6SE7SE10
2 days agoCalmW3SW4SW4W4SW8SW9SW8SW8SW7SW7SW7SW8SW5W4CalmCalmCalmNE4SE3CalmNE3CalmNE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.