Sunday, August18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Holley, NY

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 8:12PM Sunday August 18, 2019 3:21 AM EDT (07:21 UTC) Moonrise 9:00PMMoonset 8:07AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 430 Pm Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Tonight..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast less than 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early and again late. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Light and variable winds. A chance of showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ042 Expires:201908180300;;792789 FZUS51 KBUF 172030 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 430 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ042-180300-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Holley, NY
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location: 43.22, -78.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 180602
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
202 am edt Sun aug 18 2019

Synopsis
A very active pattern over the region through early next week will
support fairly frequent showers and thunderstorms at times.

Otherwise... It will be very warm and muggy through the middle of
the upcoming week. A cold front will move across the area on
Wednesday and provide much more comfortable conditions for the
second half of the week.

Near term through today
Early this morning, radar shows showers and thunderstorms
developing across lake erie along the leading edge of a
shortwave. These will gradually move eastward into far western
new york through daybreak, with radar trends supporting the
likely pops in place. Similar to last night there will be patchy
fog, mainly in areas which clear out ahead of the shortwave, and
across the typical southern tier valleys. Otherwise, it will be
warm and muggy early this morning, with lows in the low to mid
60s.

The morning will start with weakening convection over the
western counties. As the driving shortwave moves across lake
ontario to the st lawrence valley by midday... The leftover
showers and possible thunderstorms will be over the north
country. Subsidence in the wake of the shortwave will bring a
reprieve of several hours over the western counties... Then
another round of thunderstorms will be possible for the southern
tier and finger lakes as a likely lake breeze boundary will
push east from lake erie.

While today will not be a washout... It may prove to be
uncomfortable. H85 temps that will start off in the mid teens c
are forecast to climb to the upper teens late in the afternoon.

Mixing this airmass would normally promote MAX temps in the mid
to upper 80s... But given the likelihood for debris clouds from
the morning and midday convection... Have dropped temps back a
couple degrees from continuity. Nevertheless... MAX temps in the
low to mid 80s with dew points close to 70 will translate into
apparent temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s for the lake
plains.

Short term tonight through Tuesday night
This period will feature a continuation of warm and humid conditions,
with on and off chances for showers and storms.

A mid level shortwave and associated weak cold front will approach
our area Sunday night, then move through the region on Monday. This
will keep the chance for some scattered showers isolated storm in
the forecast for Sunday night, with better chances for convection by
Monday afternoon, as these features impinge on increased instability
owed to daytime heating. Increased southwest flow may lake shadow
areas northeast of lakes erie and ontario Monday afternoon.

The cold front will settle south of the area Monday night, then
stall out across northern pa and remain pretty much stationary
through the day on Tuesday. With no discernible mid level shortwaves
moving across the area during this time, will have just the chance
for a few showers isolated storm mainly across the southern tier and
finger lakes region closer the stalled boundary. Counties bordering
the southern lake ontario shoreline, east to the north country may
see mainly dry weather.

Stalled front across northern pa will start to slowly return north
as a warm front Tuesday night. At the same time, the next piece of
shortwave energy will approach the area. This will spread chances for
some showers isolated storms further north across the area, with the
best chance remaining across southern areas, with areas across the
north country once again having the best possibility of remaining
dry through late Tuesday night.

Otherwise, lowered temperatures a couple of degrees, however it will
still be on the warm side with fairly high humidity levels remaining
in place. Increased cloud cover ahead of the front on Monday, and a
slightly cooler airmass behind the cold front Tuesday will foster
highs generally within plus or minus a couple degrees of the mid
80s both days.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
Warm temperatures will start this period on Wednesday before a cold
front tracks across the area. As the cold front tracks from west to
east, showers and thunderstorms will overspread the region on
Wednesday. Cold air advection will bring an end to the warmer than
normal temperatures for the remainder of the work week. With an
upper level trough still over the area, showers will be possible
through Thursday before increased ridging influences the area.

Friday and Saturday will experience dry conditions as this ridging
increases.

Temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s on Wednesday. Cold air
advection will bring a cooler airmass to the region resulting in
temperatures in the low to mid 70s for Thursday and Friday. Warm air
advection on Saturday will result in temperatures in the mid to
upper 70s across the area.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Thursday
The main concern for tafs is the potential for fog development
early this morning. It will depend on how long skies remain
clear, along with the advection of higher surface dew points.

Climatologically the best chance for ifr conditions is at kjhw
which tends to fog in first due to its proximity to the river
valley. Fog is also possible at other sites, but confidence is
lower. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm will spread into far
western new york early this morning with this and associated
cloud cover actually improving conditions in terms of fog at
least. Brief periods of lower conditions are possible in
thunderstorms.

There may be some lingering MVFR CIGS this morning, but the
majority of the area will beVFR with the exception of an area
of showers and embedded thunderstorms which will move from west
to east across the area with a shortwave. Thunderstorms will
become more widespread mid-day with diurnal heating, and then
taper off late afternoon with the departure of the shortwave.

Convection will result in brief localized restrictions.

Expect mainlyVFR conditions early this evening, but another
wave will approach late evening with some more showers and
thunderstorms possible.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR to MVFR in scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms.

Tuesday...VFR... With a chance of showers and thunderstorms south of
buffalo and rochester.

Wednesday... Thunderstorms likely that could impact operations.

Thursday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
A weak pressure gradient will maintain generally light to modest
winds across the lower great lakes through the rest of the weekend
and into early next week, along with correspondingly minimal
waves. This said, there is a risk for showers and thunderstorms
today through Monday and these could produce locally stronger
winds and higher waves.

Looking further out into the middle of next week... A cold front
will cross the region on Wednesday along with more showers and
thunderstorms. In its wake... Increasingly brisk northwesterly
winds will bring an increase in wave action and could eventually
require the issuance of small craft advisories for Wednesday night
and Thursday.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Apffel jjr rsh
near term... Apffel jjr rsh
short term... Jm
long term... Sw
aviation... Apffel
marine... Jjr apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 22 mi57 min 70°F 1013.5 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 24 mi81 min SW 6 G 9.9 72°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 37 mi81 min S 4.1 G 5.1 70°F 1014.6 hPa (+0.7)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 44 mi31 min W 3.9 G 3.9 71°F 71°F1 ft1013.9 hPa70°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY21 mi87 minSSW 49.00 miPartly Cloudy68°F64°F90%1015 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW4SW4SW5S4SW4SW7S5W7S4CalmS6S7S10SW7SW8SW5W4SW4SW5SW6SW6SW4SW4
1 day agoCalmCalmS3CalmSW3CalmCalmN3CalmE4Calm3SE4NE7NE10NW6E5SW5SW6SW5SW4SW4SW5SW4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE10SE9SE10SE9E10
G14
SE7E11E12E10NE10E6E6SE4CalmCalmE4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.