Monday, January20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Muskegon, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:09AMSunset 5:42PM Monday January 20, 2020 10:32 AM EST (15:32 UTC) Moonrise 4:20AMMoonset 2:07PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ847 Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi- 406 Am Est Mon Jan 20 2020
Early this morning..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Today..Northeast winds around 10 knots backing northwest late in the day. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots backing west toward daybreak. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 5 to 7 feet building to 6 to 8 feet toward daybreak.
Wednesday..Southwest winds to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 20 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of snow showers. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ847 Expires:202001202100;;231558 FZUS53 KGRR 200907 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 406 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ847-202100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Muskegon, MI
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location: 43.23, -86.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 201138 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 638 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 304 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

- Dry until Wednesday night

- Precipitation chances increasing Wednesday night and continuing

- Rain and snow this weekend with no impacts expected

DISCUSSION. (Today through next Sunday) Issued at 304 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

-- Dry until Wednesday night --

No changes to previous thinking. The pattern will strongly favor dry conditions. Specifically, we will see strong subsidence with a sharp upper ridge just upstream and concomitant broad, seasonably strong, surface high pressure over most of the Eastern U.S.

-- Precipitation chances increasing Wednesday night and continuing --

Only change of note from previous forecast is to introduce a chance for freezing rain/drizzle Thursday morning at the leading edge of the approaching precipitation moving into our dry airmass. This is hinted at by the deterministic GFS/ECMWF runs. This should be short- lived prior to our transition to rain, snow, or both. However, this freezing precipitation may coincide with the Thursday morning commute and has some potential to produce travel impacts.

Otherwise, as already noted, the precipitation in question is associated with a cold front that moves east into the area, drawing a narrow plume of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of it. Trajectories are less than favorable and the resident airmass over the Gulf will be quite dry (a lot more continental polar than marine) due to the previously mentioned surface high. Accordingly, precipitation amounts should be limited with no impacts expected.

-- Rain and snow this weekend with no impacts expected --

Looks like better than even chances for precipitation Saturday with most ECE ensemble members on board. However, the driver is a cutoff upper low and this can be subject to considerable positional forecast errors. Indeed, there are several members keeping things dry for us with the surface low positioned more over the Southeastern U.S. This is the minority report at this time, however, but would not be totally surprised to see increasing ensemble membership in this direction. Regardless, no impacts are expected because precipitation amounts will be on the light side and falling as rain and/or snow.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 638 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

No IFR conditions are expected at any terminal through the period.

A solid layer of MVFR ceilings (above fuel alternate threshold of 2000 ft AGL) presently covers Western Lower Michigan. This will be slow to erode and will likely persist all day by Lake Michigan, including the KMKG and KAZO terminals. KGRR and KBTL will be in the transition zone but should break out later today. Farther east, confidence is relatively high for continued VFR at KJXN and KLAN.

MARINE. Issued at 304 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

For the first time in a while, we are bereft of marine headlines. As noted previously, this will likely change by Tuesday afternoon in response to strong southwesterly flow developing. Waves near 8 feet are still expected near the points Wednesday. Waves should gradually drop below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) thresholds during the day Thursday. Will be discussing this further with adjacent offices to coordinate specifics prior to issuing the SCA headline, which will probably ship later today.

HYDROLOGY. Issued at 330 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

No new news on the ice jam at Rogers Heights just upstream of the Rogers Dam on the Muskegon River Per Emergency Management. we believe the ice jam is still in place, things are stable and no flooding is occurring at this point. We have kept the Flood Advisory out for that stretch of river into Tuesday as flooding may develop. Ice formation is ongoing in rivers across the area per webcams and photos from staff. Would not be surprised to see a few more ice jams crop up in the next 24 to 48 hours. We will dip into the single digits and teens which will make ice formation efficient tonight.

Otherwise, rivers remain high but continue to fall in most areas. The exception continues to be the lower end of the Grand River near Robinson TWP where backwater from Lake Michigan and the crest working down the grand from last week are producing high flows.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . None.

SYNOPSIS . TJT DISCUSSION . TJT AVIATION . TJT HYDROLOGY . Duke MARINE . TJT


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 4 mi22 min S 2.9 G 4.1 23°F 1037.3 hPa17°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 32 mi50 min 22°F 32°F1034.3 hPa18°F
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 50 mi56 min 25°F 16°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI3 mi37 minN 09.00 miLight Snow23°F16°F74%1036.4 hPa
Fremont Municipal Airport, MI20 mi37 minN 010.00 miOvercast20°F20°F100%1034.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMKG

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11N18
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N9N9N6N6N3CalmCalmN4NE5E5NE4NE6NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSE7SW14
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2 days agoSE11SE14SE11SE11E12E14E9E9SE12E10E14
G20
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G26
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.