Sunrise 6:39 AM   Sunset 8:45 PM Moonrise 12:10 AM   Moonset 8:22 AM

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LMZ847 Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi- 405 Pm Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Through early evening - Southeast winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Patchy dense fog. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Monday - South winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Monday night - West winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.Tuesday - Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Wednesday - South winds around 20 knots veering west. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.Thursday - Southeast winds around 15 knots veering south. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KGRR 281952 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 352 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold Front brings rain/thunder on Monday

- Multiple Chances for Showers and Storms This Week

- Warm Temperatures Through The Saturday

DISCUSSION
Issued at 352 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

- Cold Front brings rain/thunder on Monday

Extensive cloudiness into this afternoon has so far muted any strong updrafts, although a few showers and towering cu have managed to form in the past couple hours across the southern half of the forecast area. Cannot rule out a few strong storms into early evening with deep layer shear values of 25 to 30 knots.
Breaks in the clouds and surface heating could overcome the stabilizing influence of the extensive rain showers from last night into this morning.

For tonight, we will watch whatever showers/storms are able to develop but they should diminish after sunset as sfc based instability diminishes, then look for showers and storms pushing in ahead of the advancing cold front overnight into Monday morning. Expect the bulk of those showers to come through between roughly 8 AM and noon on Monday with the potential for some stronger storms across the eastern forecast area as the airmass destabilizes. Scattered showers persist along and behind the cold front into Monday evening before drying works in from the west.

- Multiple Chances for Showers and Storms This Week

Tuesday will be the best chance for dry weather in the long term portion of the forecast thanks to a surface ridge and upper-level ridging forecast to move overhead. Ensemble probabilities have trended downward with precipitation chances for the Tuesday night into Wednesday timeframe due to questions on low-level moisture even with a vorticity maximum swinging through. An isolated shower can't be ruled out north of M20 but given low confidence will leave the dry NBM PoPs as is.

Showers and Thunderstorms more likely Wednesday into Thursday as a surface low to our west lifts a warm frontal boundary across Lower Michigan. Thursday could be the most active day of the long term period as MUCAPE values increase near to above 1000 J/kg Thursday afternoon in both ECMWF and GFS guidance with a 30-40 knot low-level jet. A shortwave then swings through the area Thursday night into Friday driving a front through keeping rain chances going.

Predictability in the longwave pattern decreases notably into next weekend. While there are signals in cluster analysis and model guidance for a trough to setup over the central United States by next weekend, there is considerable variation in both the positioning and amplitude of this feature.

- Warm Temperatures Through The Saturday

Highs in the 60s are expected for Tuesday as a weak thermal trough quickly passes through the region. Temperatures warm for the mid to late work week into the 70s, with the 80s not out of the question, as southwest flow brings plenty of warm air into the Central Great Lakes.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 126 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The shield of MVFR clouds affecting all TAF sites at present will make its way north over the next few hours bringing all sites to at least low VFR. Tonight the I96 TAF sites drop back to MVFR with some IFR possible at MKG (but to low confidence to include IFR in the TAF) because of the warm frontal boundary that will remain draped across the area. Multiple chances for showers and storms are expected the next 24 hours including a low chance for thunderstorms this afternoon. Enough confidence for VCTS at GRR and MKG but all other sites did not have the confidence at this time. Additional showers overnight will affect MKG and GRR and bring patchy fog potential to these terminals. Moisture increases Monday morning bringing MVFR potential back to AZO and BTL and showers possible but just low enough confidence in affecting the terminals to leave out at present. Winds today and tomorrow will be 10-15 knots gusting to 20 at times and 7-12 knots overnight.

MARINE
Issued at 352 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Webcams and satellite do not show any extensive areas of dense fog over Lake Michigan this afternoon as winds have apparently been able to prevent its formation. We will keep mention of patchy fog in the marine zones for this evening.

Winds and waves increase Monday afternoon and a Small Craft Advisory may be needed although conditions looks marginal.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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