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Marine Weather and Tides Pittsfield, NH Version 3.4

NOTICE 1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17. 1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

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Sunrise 6:12AM

Sunset 5:38PM

Thursday March 4, 2021 11:20 PM EST (04:20 UTC)

Moonrise 12:05AM

Moonset 10:18AM

Illumination 61%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pittsfield, NH

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Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 050334 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1034 PM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

SYNOPSIS. Gusty northwest winds continue tonight as a strong disturbance over Canada moves overhead. Cool temperatures and gusty northwest winds are expected through Friday and Saturday with winds gradually weakening through the period. High pressure builds into the region Sunday and Monday before a significant warming trend develops next week. No significant rain or snow events are expected through the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/. 1030 PM Update . Another round of minor tweaks to account for latest observations and guidance. Temperatures are starting to drop quickly especially over the north as cold advection takes over behind a subtle surface cold front dropping through the area this evening.

640 PM Update . Forecast is on track this evening with mainly minor tweaks to temperatures, dew points, and winds according to latest observations and hires guidance. At this hour, peak wind gusts around 30 kts are common for many places. Expect this to continue through the evening into the early overnight hours; while observations are sparse if at all present in the area of interest, strongest wind gusts in the lee of the western Maine mountains are expected during this time period as a mid-level jet drops through the area . enhanced by a temperature inversion just above these peaks.

Original Discussion .

High Impact Weather Potential:

* Strong winds continue through this evening . with a period of 45 mph + wind gusts in downslope regimes this evening.

* Wind chills near the international boarder will near -20F late tonight.

Pattern: Nice pressure depression on the 1.5 PVU surface lining up with area of enhanced moisture on GOES 16 water vapor imagery now dropping south into the region. This is associated with an area of cloudiness and represents a renewed round of cold advection. Ahead of this feature . northwesterly winds in a deep surface-based mixed layer have increased markedly this afternoon with gusts to 30 to 35kt rather common. Area of height falls overhead through this evening before shortwave moves south of New England overnight. Primary focus is on winds with a second focus on wind chills after midnight.

Through this Evening: High resolution guidance and ensembles suggest that while the mixed layer slowly becomes shallower this evening . winds at it/s top will strengthen . with a secondary peak in wind gusts /after this afternoon/ being in the 23-06z window. As with our last downslope wind event . the southeastern slopes are again the most favored locations for wind gusts over 40kt . but overall the setup is a good bit weaker than on Tuesday. The near term guidance has been consistent that southern New Hampshire will be a second area where gusts will be higher . though below 40kt /thus no headlines/ Here. expect that this will allow the 30-35kt gusts that are ongoing simply to persist despite the slowly stabilizing boundary layer Thus. no changes to the headlines this evening.

Overnight: After the evening peak . winds will slowly decrease overnight with continued stabilization of the boundary layer. Arctic air will arrive courtesy of these winds with T8s falling towards -25C by daybreak across the mountains. Consensus approach for temperatures usually works rather well in these well-mixed scenarios and was followed..yielding teens along the coast and southern NH with single digits in the mountains. With the winds, this does allow for a few locations right up along the international boarder to near -20F for a time around daybreak . but not enough coverage to warrant any wind chill headlines. Also . deepening moisture in the upslope flow will allow for mountain snow showers to be on the increase with an inch or two of accumulation possible in favored areas by daybreak Friday.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. High Impact Weather Potential:

* Wind chills will again near -20F Friday night in the mountains.

Friday: A breezy and chilly day is in store for Friday as a strong gradient in the low levels and ample daytime mixing will continue to facilitate strong winds. Winds aloft will be weaker than on Thursday /around 30kt at H8/ which suggests that gusts should remain below 30kt As for temperatures. T9s in the Arctic airmass will be in the minus teens . which will only support teens for highs in the mountains with 20s to the south. This is roughly 10F below seasonal norms for early March. Wind chills in the mountains will remain below zero through the day in the mountains . with single digits and teens to the south. Upslope snow shower activity will continue in the cyclonic flow with continued light accumulations likely in favored areas.

Friday Night: Another shortwave embedded in the northwest flow aloft will rotate into the region helping to maintain snow shower activity in the mountains and upslope areas despite lowering inversion levels. Expect any accumulation overnight to generally be less than one inch Otherwise. more of the same with a somewhat weaker gradient allowing for lighter winds . but with winds likely remaining coupled through the night. Given somewhat lighter winds . and the cold airmass in place . low temperatures will likely push a bit colder than the night previous . likely at or below zero in the mountains with single digits and teens to the south. The resulting wind chills will be about the same . with locations in the mountains again nearing -20F.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal. --Pattern and Implications--

Blocky pattern apparent on early afternoon water vapor imagery along with H5 analysis over North America with somewhat of an Omega block apparent with troughs along both coasts with a ridge across the west- central portion of the continent. The NAO is moving in the positive direction through the remainder of the week and weekend which will allow the upstream blocking to give way . and allow for a substantial push of maritime Pacific air to push across the lower 48 In the mid levels. this will take the form of the central NOAM ridging pushing east into our area. This ridge will largely take Gulf moisture out of the equation with the next effect being a significant warming trend with no major precipitation- producers. The strengthening flow aloft will bring the potential for a few weak frontal passages next week.

--Daily Details--

Saturday - Monday: High pressure slowly builds south and east from northern Ontario on Saturday reaching the Appalachians by Monday. The result is a cool and breezy start Saturday with some residual mountain snow showers with winds gradually decreasing and temperatures gradually increasing as the surface high pressure ridge axis nears from the west. The decreasing gradient and dry cP airmass also favors cold overnight lows with MOS guidance followed closer for this period.

Tuesday: Weak frontal passage in the WNW flow aloft as a shortwave passes north of the region Source region is dry. so while some PoPs are warranted through the first half of the day . all that is likely is a quick snow shower . perhaps warm enough to be sprinkles/light rain if any precipitation makes it south of the mountains.

Wednesday - Thursday: Deep southwesterly flow takes over with significant warm advection to end the period. T8s move above freezing with ECMWF ensemble EFI suggesting temperatures potentially moving to values exceeding a 20 year climatology. Seeing 50s on Wednesday in the MEX is a strong signal at this range . and there is good agreement between the deterministic/ensemble guidance at this range. This is fully consistent with T9s moving to the upper +single digits at this range. Also agreed upon is another shortwave and somewhat stronger frontal passage by the very end of the forecast period Thursday. Still don't see a large precip-producer with an early look at ensemble probabilities favoring no more than a tenth or two of an inch Thus. expect us to start a melting pattern . but with somewhat cooler air to arrive after this forecast period is over.

AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Short Term /Through Friday Night/ .

Summary: A disturbance dropping out of Canada will bring strong northwest winds now through Friday before winds slowly diminish beginning Friday night. Some mountain snow showers are expected tonight through Friday night.

Restrictions: VFR will dominate all sites outside of HIE through the period. At HIE, some potential for a SHSN to bring isolated MVFR/IFR restrictions through the period while CIGs may near MVFR levels at times tonight and Friday.

Winds: Northwest winds 18g28kts will very gradually decrease overnight to 12g20kts before increasing again to 14g22kts for the day Friday before diminishing to around 10kts Friday night.

LLWS: Given deep mixing LLWS through 2kft is not expected through Friday night. Long Term /Saturday through Monday/ .

VFR conditions should dominate this period with gusty northwest winds on Saturday gradually diminishing through Sunday and remaining light on Monday.

MARINE. Short Term . Backed up start of the gale warning to now with gusts over gale force at IOSN3 this afternoon . with winds running a bit higher than previously forecast. Winds gusts in the current SCA area will near 35kt for a period this evening . before diminishing somewhat overnight. SCAs will be needed at least through Friday night.

Long Term . Marginal SCA conditions Saturday will diminish with headline-free conditions expected by late Saturday and continuing into early next week.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for MEZ007-008-012- 013. NH . Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NHZ004. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ153. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST Friday night for ANZ150>152. Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ154.



NEAR TERM UPDATES . CASEY REST OF DISCUSSION . ARNOTT

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH	23 mi	96 min	WNW 12	23°F			1004 hPa	9°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME	34 mi	51 min	NW 13 G 20	20°F	37°F		1003.3 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH	35 mi	81 min	WNW 37 G 44	23°F			1001.8 hPa (+0.0)	3°F
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME	35 mi	81 min	W 6	21°F				4°F
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf	41 mi	77 min	WNW 25 G 31	25°F		4 ft	1002 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

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NW3

NW5 G10

NW6 G10

NW6 G9

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NW11 G14

NW10 G14

NW8 G16

NW15 G23

NW14 G21

NW12 G18

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NW14 G22

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1 day ago

W9 G13

NW9 G14

NW7 G12

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SW4 G10

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W3 G7

W4 G10

W5 G10

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NW13 G21

W12 G18

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NW6 G12

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NW17 G23

NW24 G33

NW17 G26

NW17 G27

NW21 G32

NW16 G28

NW16 G25

NW19 G36

NW24 G35

NW20 G28

NW19 G34

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NW18 G31

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NW8 G16

NW11 G19

NW10 G19

W7 G17

W6 G13

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Rochester - Skyhaven Airport, NH	14 mi	30 min	WNW 9 G 18	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	19°F	2°F	47%	1003 hPa
Concord Municipal Airport, NH	17 mi	30 min	NW 19 G 31	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy and Breezy	19°F	4°F	52%	1005.6 hPa
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH	22 mi	25 min	WNW 21 G 25	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy and Breezy	21°F	-1°F	38%	1003.4 hPa
Manchester Airport, NH	24 mi	28 min	NW 14 G 21	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	23°F	4°F	44%	1006.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDAW

Wind History from DAW (wind in knots)

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NW17 G30

NW15 G26

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NW21 G25

NW18 G23

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W19 G30

W15 G29

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W12 G29

NW14 G26

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W10 G30

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W10 G16

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NW14 G18

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NW29 G44

NW17 G28

NW21 G34

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NW13 G29

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W16 G30

W19 G36

W17 G40

NW22 G33

NW25 G46

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NW15 G32

NW20 G37

W15 G30

NW20 G32

NW17 G24

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W11 G21

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W8 G15

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Tide / Current Tables for Salmon Falls River entrance, Piscataqua River, New Hampshire

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Tide / Current Tables for Squamscott River RR. Bridge, New Hampshire

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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