Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pittsfield, NH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Impacts and Key Messages: * Slippery travel possible with light snow overnight

Flurries continue to stream out of the mountains at this hour, but aren't necessarily reaching the ground everywhere as dewpoint depressions remain high outside of the foothills. This activity will slowly dwindle as we head into the evening, but will then be followed by our clipper system.

Warm air advection begins to push into the area around 7 PM tonight and with that we could see the first flakes begin to fly in northern New Hampshire and down into the Connecticut River Valley. Snow will then overspread the area from west to east overnight. QPF amounts are not all that impressive, generally between 0.15 and 0.25, but forecast soundings continue to show a deep dendritic growth zone. This combined with snow ratios in the ballpark of 15:1, means we should be able to pile up at least 2-3 inches across much of the area before the accumulation window ends. Winds will be shifting northwesterly behind that push of warm air advection, which will be what closes that aforementioned window, and this could happen quite early in southern New Hampshire, like around sunrise, which is why they may land on the lower end of the range for totals.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Impacts and Key Messages: * Slippery travel possible early in the morning as light snow tapers off.

Snow showers will begin to taper off from south to north Sunday morning as winds shift northwesterly. The northwesterly flow will continue to sustain upslope showers through the day as well. The northern half of New Hampshire and parts of the Western Maine Mountains stand the best chance of landing on the higher end of snow totals, closer to 4 inches, with the higher elevation even getting a little more when you add in the upslope showers.

When it's all said and done we will be left with a partly sunny afternoon and a relatively mild airmass as high temperatures could climb into the low 40s south of the mountains. North of the mountains will stay cloudy so they won't be able to take full advantage of the warmer airmass, but should still see temperatures warm well into the 30s. Clouds will be on the increase overnight ahead of the next weather maker, so low temperatures look to only fall into the upper teens and 20s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Overview: A active weather pattern for the week ahead. There will be two systems of focus: the first a quick moving mix/light snow event Monday afternoon/overnight, and the second a longer duration system with stronger wind and potentially much greater precipitation Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Details: Monday will feature lowering clouds through the morning and afternoon as the column saturates. In the afternoon, showers will overspread SW NH and push NE into ME through the early overnight hours. Deepest RH profile is short lived, and this should focus a main plume of stratiform precip pulling through the region between roughly 8pm and 4am, with lasting drizzle or freezing drizzle towards the morning commute. Thus, measurable precip is quick, but could lead to slick impacts for the morning commute.

With the overrunning event, expect cold air damming to take place and keep temps towards the mountains and foothills/interior cool enough for light snow accumulations for the first half of the night. Have went with a blend of NBM and NAM for overnight temperatures. While this creates a compromise of a broad near-freezing gradient, believe the actual gradient may be sharper and lie just inland from the coast once the event rolls around. This will be refined closer to the event as confidence increases, and this will play a role in precipitation types.

Complications arise when a warm nose aloft moves into the region after midnight. Should CAD perform well, the surface and very low levels remain below freezing with warming above. This could lead to a period of freezing rain as the bulk of precipitation exits northeast. On the plus side, QPF during this time frame will be lighter, and will be falling on fresh light snow (vs. on bare ground). However, it could still lead to some slick surfaces for those heading out the door for Tues morning commute. Forecast ice amounts come out to a couple hundredths across central NH, into the mountains and interior of ME, but will be an item to watch as confidence increases.

After a very brief lull Tuesday afternoon and evening, a larger storm takes shape to the southwest. A broad area of low pressure will coil up towards Hudson Bay, with convergence stretching all the way down the Appalachian Mtns into the South.
This creates a large fetch of moisture advection pointed north.
With a deep and sharpening trough pushing through into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley come Wednesday morning, the combination of convergence and moisture advection will feed a longer moderate to heavy precipitation event into the region.
NAEFS mean IVT nears max for CFSR climo just off the ME coast Wednesday afternoon, supporting QPF exceeding two inches for much of the CWA Latest NBM guidance this morning supports a continued shift west of the rain axis. While this placement been fairly consistent, expect there to be further changes to this track by mid week. Rain looks to be the primary precip type at this time, with potentially some snow transition on the back side come Thursday morning. WPC continues a ERO level of Marginal to Slight for the area on day 5. While this will be good moisture to whittle away drought conditions, wet or frozen surface may increase runoff during peak rainfall rates.

Will also need to pay attention to strong wind potential.
Offshore LLJ will be building in size and intensity through Wednesday. Amid the other strong dynamics at play, gusts in excess of 40 mph will be possible at least along the ME coast.
This will be highly dependent if additional surface low pressure can organize at base of the large trough and swing north through Wednesday.

Temperatures look to trend back towards normal late week behind the mid week storm.

AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Short Term...Ceilings lower tonight as a clipper system moves into the area. As snow breaks out across the area from west to east, expect visibilities to quickly drop to IFR and remain there overnight. Improvements look to begin not long after 12Z, again from west to east, becoming VFR again by 18Z area wide.
Wind gusts generally remain below 20kts, the only exception may be at PWM and RKD as winds look to increase along the coast as the system departs.

Long Term...Clouds lower Monday afternoon with MVFR/IFR ceiling restrictions overnight through Tuesday. LIFR will be possible in combination of SN. This may remain RA towards southern NH terminals. Confidence is increasing for some FZRA mixing in for central terminals from CON towards AUG and to the international border. Very little break from these conditions before another strong storm looks to pass through the region midweek. This would contain stronger winds as well as low ceilings and RA.

MARINE
Short Term...Winds and seas build above SCA criteria overnight as a clipper system passes through the region. Winds and seas quickly subside through Sunday morning, potentially falling below SCA criteria by Sunday afternoon. Southwesterly wind gusts will peak around 30kts, before subsiding and shifting northwesterly. Seas will peak around 5ft.

Long Term...Below SCA conditions Mon and Tue as low pressure quickly passes overhead and exits east. More concern for a mid week storm where at least Gale conditions are expected. Storm force headlines may be needed by Wednesday evening, with rapidly building seas.



GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ150>154.