Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 7:37 PM Moonrise 12:22 PM   Moonset 3:18 AM

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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 305 Pm Cdt Tue Apr 16 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm cdt this evening - ..gale warning in effect until 1 am cdt Wednesday - .
Through early evening - East wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet.Tonight - East wind up to 30 knots with gusts to around 40 knots veering southeast with gusts to around 40 knots late in the evening, then becoming southeast up to 30 knots with gusts to around 35 knots after midnight easing to 15 to 25 knots early in the morning. Rain showers with Thunderstorms likely. Waves 7 to 9 feet. Wednesday - Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots veering south late in the morning, then becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Rain showers likely in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 6 to 8 feet subsiding to 5 to 7 feet late in the morning, then subsiding to 3 to 5 feet early in the afternoon subsiding to 3 to 4 feet late in the afternoon. Wednesday night - West wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Gusts up to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy through around midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the late evening and overnight. Thursday - West wind 10 to 15 knots veering northwest late in the morning, then backing west early in the afternoon backing southwest late in the afternoon. Rain showers likely in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 162019 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 319 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Approaching Wind Advisory criteria this afternoon for strong east to southeast winds

- Rounds of showers and storms will likely (60-85%) bring over an inch of rain this afternoon through Wednesday afternoon with pockets to around 2 inches possible especially over south central WI.

- There is a conditional severe threat for far south central WI this afternoon and evening.

SHORT TERM
Issued 319PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Tonight through Wednesday night:

As the low pressure system in Iowa continues to advect northeast toward central Wisconsin today there will be showers and storms moving through the area. The line of thunderstorms in Iowa and Minnesota is just ahead of the main surface boundary. There is development behind this line along the boundary, which is where you can see more supercellular type convection firing.
Rain/storms will pick up this afternoon as this sfc boundary and upper level support from the low moves into the area. The LLJ will be ramping up a bit during this time as well. Given this, the shear will be pretty impressive across southwestern Wisconsin. The 0-6km shear is going to be pushing 60kts at times as this boundary begins to move through.

Now for this afternoon/evening the convection out ahead of this frontal boundary will be moving in first and will be a bit separated from the better dewpoints (moisture), and shear. The distance from this boundary will limit the ability for any of this convection to be surface based which is what we will need for any tornadic activity here. So while the chance for tornadoes in southwestern Wisconsin is non-zero it is still very conditional. The conditional nature is based on how far north the warm sector can get to make storms surface based. Hail and strong winds will be the primary threat. As storms move northeast away from the better support toward Lake Michigan, the severe potential is expected to decrease.

The main period of convection should end by around midnight tonight. Dry conditions will be likely(~70%) during the late night hours, this will be caused by the dry slot moving through the area. Around daybreak showers and storms are expected to return as the occluded front moves through. The severe threat with this morning convection will be very marginal. Storms are expected to develop overhead and move northeast. From the CAMs the NAM and NAMnest seem to be the most aggressive with this convection. Every other short term guidance is much more relaxed with development. There will be a short window (roughly 2 hours)
where there could be some lingering CAPE. This CAPE is what we will need to get any stronger storms Wednesday morning with this broken line that is expected to develop. The chances for any stronger convection tomorrow morning is expected to be around 25%. By Wednesday evening drier conditions are expected to return as the low pressure system begins to pull out of the state.

Not much has changed in the realm of hydro concerns for this event. Widespread 0.75 to 1.25 inches are expected from this afternoon through Wednesday evening. A few locations could see totals as high as 2 inches, particularly across southwestern Wisconsin. A few rivers in the western parts of the CWA will likely (~70%) be impact and that will be the main item to watch when it comes to hydro concerns. Rainfall rates will be the secondary item to keep track of as any heavy rainfall could result in minor Urban effects. Overall flash flooding is not expected at this time.

Patterson

LONG TERM
Issued 319PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Thursday through Tuesday:

850 to 700 mb WAA is expected over the region on Thursday as a weakening surface low passes over the middle Mississippi Valley.
Light to moderate rain spurred by this warm advection is expected on and off through the daytime hours on Thursday. WAA should exit east in the evening, and rain will gradually move out with it.
Weak cold advection will then kick in on northwest winds overnight into early Friday morning.

By Friday, a high pressure ridge will pass overhead leading to clear skies, but cooler conditions amid the cold air advection. A strong low level jet is expected to round the base of a large area of low pressure over centered over eastern Canada and pass over the upper Great Lakes region. With our sunny skies, we should be able to mix up to the stronger winds aloft and bring this momentum down to the surface, causing gusty west surface winds.
Winds will die down Friday evening as mixing ceases and the LLJ pulls east of the area.

High pressure should then persist into the weekend, keeping things dry amid cooler temperatures.

CMiller

AVIATION
Issued 319PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

As rain/storms begin to move into southern Wisconsin over the next hour or so ceilings are expected to fall to MVFR to IFR levels. Ceilings are expected to be around 4kft with the initial line of thunderstorms. Tonight ceilings are expected to fall as a stratus deck begins to move in around 2kft. Reduced visibilites around 2-4 SM will be possible with the heavier rainfall. Late this evening into the overnight hours, there will likely (~70%) be a break in the precipitation. By day break Wednesday there is expected to be additional storm development (70% chance). Mid day Wednesday, ceilings are expected to gradually improve from west to east. By Wednesday night VFR conditions are likely (70-80%) to return.

The gusty east winds are expected to continue until tonight where winds will diminish a bit. Gusts to 35 kts will be possible through this evening due to the tight pressure gradient over the area. Winds will shift to southeasterly tonight then become southwest Wednesday. Gusty conditions are expected again, but less so than this evening with gusts up to 25 kts expected.
By Wednesday night winds will be westerly.

Patterson

MARINE
Issued 319PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The gusty east winds today will persist as the low pressure system continues its approach toward central Wisconsin. Gales will be possible at times across Lake Michigan, thus a Gale Warning is in effect. This Gale Warning has segmented the lake into thirds with each grouping of zones starting at the same time, but ending from south to north overtime. The far northern portions of the lake will have the Gale Warning in effect through Wednesday evening. As winds diminish they will turn become southwest to westerly with the wind shift occuring over the southern and central portions of the lake first. Westerly winds will then continue Thursday morning before becoming southwesterly by Thursday afternoon for the entire lake as the low departs the area.A Small Craft will likely be needed for parts of the nearshore following the end of the Gale Warning for a least a short period.

Patterson

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 PM Tuesday.

Gale Warning...LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ643- LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872...6 PM Tuesday to 7 AM Wednesday.

Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646-LMZ673-LMZ675- LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6 PM Tuesday to 1 AM Wednesday.

Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362...6 PM Tuesday to 7 PM Wednesday.

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