Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bayside, WI

UPDATE
Issued 1016 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Wind chills will continue to improve this morning as temperatures rise across southern Wisconsin and high pressure builds overhead and allows for nearly calm winds by midday. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect only from areas from Marquette, Dodge, Waukesha, and Rock Counties eastward, with expectations for that advisory to expire at noon. High temperatures around zero degrees are expected, with highs in the mid single digits near Lake Michigan.

Convergent band of lake effect snow has developed across southern Lake Michigan between developing low pressure to the southwest and strong high pressure over the western Great Lakes.
As low pressure deepens and lifts eastward late tonight into early Sunday morning, this convergence zone will shift gradually westward. Models are indicating more confidence in impacts to Lake Michigan counties (specifically Milwaukee metro southward)
during the early morning to midday hours Sunday. With lake temperatures near 3 degrees C and 850 mb temperatures between negative 15 and negative 20 degrees C, more than enough convective potential exists for moderate to heavy snowfall rates (up to 1 inch per hour) if the central portions of the band make it onshore. There is still the chance that high pressure will win out over the developing northeast flow, and therefore still possible that only trace snow showers will make it onshore. However, the forecasted strength of the developing low to the south would make that solution less likely based on the preliminary model data this morning.

MH

SHORT TERM
Issued 346 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Today through Sunday Night:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: A broad area of high pressure is centered over the Upper Mississippi Valley this morning, resulting in variable to light northwesterly winds over southern Wisconsin. With skies remaining mostly clear through the first half of the overnight, efficient radiational cooling has occurred in the presence of the advancing surface high, with the majority of locations reporting air temperatures in the teens below zero as of 3 AM CST. While far lighter relative to yesterday, the variable to light northwesterly winds are combining with the frigid air temperatures to support widespread wind chills in the -20 to -30 range early this morning. Readings as low as -35 have been reported in east-central Wisconsin, where northwesterly winds have remained a touch stronger. The aforementioned wind chills will continue through this morning, with cold weather headlines remaining in effect until Noon CST across all of southern Wisconsin. Broad high pressure will continue to build over the northern CONUS today, with two defined/closed areas of high pressure forming over the Northeast & Upper Mississippi Valley this evening. With Lake Michigan positioned between the two surface highs, convergent low level winds will allow for development of a lake effect snow band over central parts of the lake tonight. The snow band will work west Sunday morning, pulling near southeast Wisconsin before moving away Sunday afternoon & evening. If the snow band makes it on shore, it would pose some potential for accumulating snow from Milwaukee and points south. A much stronger area of low pressure will move from the Southeast into the Ohio Valley Sunday morning & afternoon, bringing small chances for light snow or flurries south of I-94 & US-18. Minimal if any accumulation is expected in this activity.

Rest of Overnight through This Morning: Headline-level wind chills will continue through this morning areawide. Given ongoing obs & short term forecast trends, have thus maintained all headlines through their scheduled end times in the overnight update. Extreme Cold Warning thus remains in effect through 6 AM CST in east-central Wisconsin, and will be replaced by a Cold Weather Advisory until 12 PM CST following the 6 AM CST expiration time. Everywhere else, a Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect until 12 PM CST. Continue to dress in layers if needing to be outside through this morning.

Tonight through Sunday: Will be monitoring for some snow potential (particularly after midnight) as a lake effect snow band evolves over western Lake Michigan & a storm system passes south of the region. If dry low level air can be overcome, the larger storm system could bring some light flurries or snow showers to areas mainly south of I-94 & US-18, with minimal (if any) accumulation expected. A more impactful scenario could materialize if the aforementioned lake effect snow band makes it onshore in southeastern Wisconsin, however, as it would pose greater potential for enhanced hourly snowfall rates & accumulation from Milwaukee and points south. Whether the band makes it ashore remains highly uncertain as of this forecast, with available model solutions ranging from the band remaining over the lake to coming on land for multiple hours. However far the band makes it, anticipate that it will make its closest pass to southeast Wisconsin between ~6 AM-2 PM Sunday, with low level winds pushing it east later Sunday afternoon.
Given the wide range of potential outcomes regarding the lake effect band, have held off on any headlines in the overnight forecast, but will be closely watching trends through today. If a scenario favoring accumulating snow becomes favored, Winter Weather Advisories may become necessary.

Sunday Night: Anticipate widespread wind chills between -10 and -20.
Will be monitoring for potential Cold Weather Advisories in later forecasts, as probabilistic guidance is indicating increasing potential (60% or greater) for wind chills colder than -20 by daybreak Monday morning.

Quigley

LONG TERM
Issued 346 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Monday through Friday:

Overall a pretty boring long term here. The upper level pattern is dominated by ridging in the western CONUS and a trough across the eastern CONUS. Under this pattern the central CONUS and Great Lakes Region will have 500 mb lows and shortwaves pivoting down from Manitoba and Saskatchewan before these lows kick out to the Atlantic coast. The upper levels will be a juxtaposed with sfc, as high pressure systems move into the Plains, Great Lakes Region, and Ohio River Valley. What this translates to is overall is weak flow a the sfc, more cold/dry air moving in and weak lift aloft. The weak lift aloft will struggle to overcome the low dewpoints (moisture) and subsidence at the sfc.

The main times to note will be Tuesday with the passage of a cold front and Wednesday with some limited moisture return and sfc convergence. Tuesday dry air looks to win out so as the cold front passes. Little to not POPS with this front, but it will bring a return of CAA (thankfully this too will be weak and mostly usher in drier air). For Wednesday, there will be shortwave trough aloft moving down from Canada, but the one discrepancy is what will be occuring at the surface. Guidance is fairly split here on the strength of the sfc high that will be parked over the Great Lakes and Plains. Some deterministic and ensemble members have a mid level shortwave providing a bit more lift, but the overall lift is weak and moisture is low. Kept the average among guidance which has 20% chance POPs or less, but overall confidence is low on anything overcoming the low level dry air. If we do get precip, temperatures will be cold enough for snow and accumulations will be low with little impact. The only other thing worth noting in the extended is temperatures will slowly climb up. Highs in the single digits Monday will be in the teens by midweek and looking just beyond the extended shows a glimmer of highs in the 20s.

Patterson

AVIATION
Issued 1016 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

VFR conditions and light and variable winds through today and into this evening, with light north winds developing late tonight into Sunday morning and shifting northwest Sunday afternoon. A band of lake effect snow may wobble onshore for MKE/RAC/ENW early Sunday morning into midday Sunday, with potential for ceilings as low as 1000 ft and reduced visibilities. If the central portions of the band do make it onshore, potential for 0.5 to 1 inch per hour rates will develop.

MH

MARINE
Issued 346 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Winds will continue to taper across Lake Michigan today as 1040 mb high pressure moves in from the west. Wave heights will likewise decrease with wind speeds, resulting in rapidly diminishing heavy freezing spray potential through sunrise. The Heavy Freezing Spray Warning will thus expire as scheduled at 3 AM CST this morning. Low pressure of 1034 mb remains forecast to form over the southern waters today, bringing lake effect snow potential to the southern half of Lake Michigan from this afternoon through tonight. The low's development will bring increasing northeast winds tonight through Sunday. Winds are expected to remain below gale thresholds.

Winds will trend northwesterly to westerly Sunday night into Monday as 1002 mb low pressure moves into the northeastern United States and 1040 mb high pressure builds into the central Great Plains. A brief period of southwest winds is forecast Monday evening/night as 1036 mb high pressure builds into the Ohio River Valley. Winds will then shift back to west-northwesterly Tuesday morning as 1032 mb high pressure builds into the northern Great Plains. Periods of 25- 30 knot gusts are anticipated from Sunday night through Tuesday morning, with a few gusts approaching gale force possible over southern Lake Michigan Monday night. Will continue to monitor trends for possible headlines in coming forecasts. The breezier conditions will be accompanied by areas of moderate to heavy freezing spray Sunday night into Tuesday. A Heavy Freezing Spray Watch has been issued between 6 PM CST Sunday and 6 PM CST Tuesday given this potential.

Increasing winds and waves will likely lead to Small Craft Advisory conditions in nearshore zones Sunday evening into Monday morning. A brief lull in conditions is possible Monday afternoon, prior to advisory-level conditions returning Monday night through Tuesday.
Headlines will likely become necessary during this portion of the period in coming forecasts. Winds and waves will subside through the day Wednesday, with additional Small Craft Advisory conditions possible Wednesday night into Thursday.

Quigley

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI
Cold Weather Advisory
WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ058- WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until noon Saturday.

LM
Heavy Freezing Spray Watch
LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364- LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675- LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876- LMZ878...6 PM Sunday to 6 PM Tuesday.