Monday, February17, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bayside, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 5:26PM Monday February 17, 2020 5:59 AM CST (11:59 UTC) Moonrise 3:28AMMoonset 12:55PM Illumination 37% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 506 Am Cst Mon Feb 17 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 am cst this morning through Tuesday morning...
Today..Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Slight chance of rain and snow late in the morning. Snow likely and a chance of rain early in the afternoon, then rain and snow late in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet in the late morning and afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast wind 15 to 20 knots veering northwest early in the morning. Gusts up to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots early in the morning. Rain and snow through around midnight, then slight chance of rain after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 4 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots backing west with gusts to around 25 knots in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..West wind 15 to 20 knots veering northwest after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ644 Expires:202002171700;;666757 FZUS53 KMKX 171106 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 506 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-171700-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayside, WI
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location: 43.24, -87.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 170959 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 359 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2020

SHORT TERM.

Today and Tonight . Forecast Confidence is Low to Medium .

Surface low and associated mid-level shortwave trough will approach WI later this morning and push through overnight. Latest model guidance continues to trend a surface low a bit further south than previous forecast. Nonetheless, with the center of the surface low generally tracking right over the southern WI it will present a tricky forecast today. Our north and northwest counties are expected to experience mostly snow beginning later this morning and continue into the evening, while areas to the south will have more of a wintry mix of snow/rain or all rain later today. Temps will be the main driver of precip type across the area and depending on how far north the transition line setups will affect the snowfall amounts.

With a more southern track and a delayed strengthening expected with the surface low, fairly confident on areas from the Dells to Sheboygan to see the highest snowfall accumulations around 3-6 inches, thus have extended the Winter Weather Advisory east to Fond du Lac and Sheboygan counties. On the other hand areas south of a line from Port Washington to Platteville are bit more uncertain. With ample low-level WAA and temps a few degrees above freezing, wintry mix to all rain will limit snow totals to a few inches or less across these areas. As the surface low quickly pushes out of the area, precip will diminish from west to east this evening. Could see some freezing drizzle as the snow ends, but thinking it will be very limited as drier air quickly filters in behind this system.

LONG TERM.

Tuesday . Forecast Confidence is Medium.

Gusty northwest winds are expected all day Tuesday with the tight pressure gradient from the departing low and weak cold air advection. Steep low level lapse rates will allow for stratocumulus for much of the day. Temperatures will remain fairly steady in the mid 20s toward central WI and upper 20s in southeast WI.

Tuesday Night Through Thursday . Forecast Confidence is High.

An arctic front will arrive Tuesday evening and stall over southern WI until the upper front finally gets through the area. That front will slowly make its way southward as surface high pressure settles into the Midwest. Tuesday night will be cold, with lows in the single digits. The diminishing winds will cause wind chill values to drop into the single digits below zero. Wednesday and Thursday high temperatures will only be in the mid to upper teens. The coldest night on the horizon will be Wednesday night where we drop into the single digits below zero except far southeast WI. Winds will be light with the high in the vicinity, but any puff of wind could cause wind chill values to drop into the -15 to -25 range. This is the time period where we might need another marginal wind chill advisory.

Friday and Beyond . Forecast Confidence is Medium.

We will begin to warm up as the surface high departs to our southeast and low pressure clips across northern Ontario. The tight pressure gradient over southern WI will bring increasing southwest winds and most importantly warmer temps with highs in the lower 30s Friday and around 40 Saturday and Sunday.

The next chance for precip in southern WI is not until Sunday night when low pressure moves in from the central Plains. The ECMWF keeps this system well to our south while the GFS brings it northward into our area.

AVIATION(09Z TAF Update).

VFR conditions continue early this morning, but ceilings and visibilities will gradually fall later this morning through the afternoon as snow and a wintry mix spreads into southern WI.

MARINE.

Breezy south to southeasterly winds will develop across our nearshore waters today as a surface low works its way into the area. A tightening pressure gradient between the departing low and an an approaching Arctic high will result in gusty northwesterly winds into Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect this morning into Tuesday morning.

A brief period of gale force gusts is possible early Tuesday morning, especially toward the southeast part of Lake Michigan.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this evening for WIZ046-047-056-057.

Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to midnight CST tonight for WIZ051-052.

LM . Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to noon CST Tuesday for LMZ643>646.



Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . Wagner Tuesday through Sunday . Cronce


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 10 mi79 min ESE 11 G 12 34°F 1021.7 hPa
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 16 mi49 min ESE 12 G 14 33°F
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 36 mi59 min ESE 13 G 15 31°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 45 mi59 min ESE 14 G 16 33°F 1020 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI13 mi64 minESE 410.00 miOvercast30°F21°F69%1020.3 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI19 mi67 minESE 910.00 miOvercast33°F24°F70%1021 hPa
West Bend Municipal Airport, WI20 mi84 minN 010.00 miOvercast23°F14°F68%1019.6 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI24 mi64 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy25°F21°F86%1019.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMWC

Wind History from MWC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W4NW6NW7NW6CalmW3NW6W5W4W4NW5CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E4E6
1 day agoS8S7S14
G20
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G23
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SW14SW11SW8SW9SW7SW8SW8W9W8W6W7W4W6W3
2 days agoW5W4W7W6SW5SW6SW7SW7SW8SW9S10S5S7S5S9S9SW7S8S9S12
G15
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G14
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G16

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.