Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayside, WI

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Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 060506 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1106 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

UPDATE.

The surface low pushing across southern Wisconsin was centered near Dodge county with a trough axis/cold front stretching to the southwest. That axis was between Mineral Point and Monroe southwest of Madison. Calm/light winds will become northwest to north and increase tonight. The forecast has had this handled well, so no changes needed.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS).

A cold front pushing across southern Wisconsin late this evening will push through KMSN by the start of the TAFS at 06z and will reach KUES/KMKE/KENW by 07z Friday. Look for the light winds to become northwest to north and become rather brisk later tonight into Friday morning. Additionally, there are MVFR CIGS in the wake of the front, and these are pushing south across the area. They should get into the TAF sites for a least a few hours. These clouds are expected to dissipate overnight, with VFR conditions expected after about 10-11z Friday.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 833 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019)

UPDATE .

The short range forecast remains on track.

MARINE .

The current marine forecast remains on track. Low pressure will slide across central Lake Michigan tonight. Gusty north to northwest winds will develop late tonight into Friday behind the low and associated cold front. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from midnight tonight through mid afternoon Friday for the gusty winds and building waves.

Low pressure approaching from the Northern Plains will bring a round of gusty southerly winds Saturday into Sunday. Gale force gusts will be possible Saturday night into Sunday morning, with the strongest gusts likely across the northern half of the lake.

Gusty northerly winds will develop in the wake of the system later Monday into Tuesday, possibly approaching gale force. A much colder airmass spreading into the region next week will lead to freezing spray conditions.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 510 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019)

UPDATE .

No change to the short range forecast.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS) .

A cold front will push across southern Wisconsin later this evening. Winds will veer to the west then to the north at KMSN between 03-05z Friday and at KMKE/KUES/KENW between 05-07z Fri. Winds could become rather strong and gusty across the southeast in the wake of the front. Additionally, a short period of MVFR CIGS are also possible immediately behind the cold front. VFR conditions should return by around 10z, then remain VFR through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will also diminish quickly by later Friday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 337 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019)

SHORT TERM .

Tonight through Friday night . Forecast Confidence is High:

Low pressure will pass through the forecast area this evening into early tonight, dragging a cold front across southern Wisconsin. Dry weather will continue as this system moves through, with the better moisture/forcing remaining north of the low. Clouds will clear out later tonight behind the front as high pressure begins to move in from the west.

Mostly sunny skies are likely Friday with high pressure overhead. Temps will be colder tomorrow behind the cold front, though the sunshine should help temps up to around normal values for early December.

Clouds will increase Friday night as the high departs, but otherwise quiet weather and near normal temps will continue.

LONG TERM .

Saturday . Forecast Confidence High:

Quiet weather continues into the weekend as a mid-level ridge remains across the upper Great Lakes region and a surface high shifts eastward on Saturday. As surface highs kicks further east, southerly flow returns to the region and warmer temperatures are expected for Sunday with highs in the low to mid 40s.

Sunday through Thursday . Forecast Confidence Medium:

While southern Wisconsin enjoys a quiet start to the weekend, an upper-level trough begins to push across the Pacific Northwest Saturday night. As the trough progresses across the central CONUS, a surface low develops along the Colorado front range. As this system continues to traverse into the Upper Midwest, southern Wisconsin looks to be sandwiched between a right entrance of weak jet leaving the region and a left exit/diffluent of another, stronger 250mb jet Sunday night/Monday. This combined with low-level WAA, should provide enough synoptic lift to support increased precipitation chances beginning Sunday and continuing into Monday. At this time, it looks to start off as rain late Sunday and transition to snow for our northern areas and more of a snow/rain mix for our southern areas.

However, models are not in agreement on where the surface low will track. GFS/GEFS favors a more northward track over southern Wisconsin, while the ECMWF/CMC tracks the low further south across northern IL/northwest IN. Thus, depending on what solution materializes will dictate the precipitaion type across southern Wisconsin. Nonetheless, QPF totals for this event looks to be light at this time and is expected to diminish Monday night as a cold front pushes across the area.

Behind the cold front, expect frigid Arctic air to filter into Wisconsin as the upper-level trough axis pushes east by Tuesday and as surface high pressure builds across the northern Plain/Upper Midwest on Wednesday. Tuesday night looks to be our coldest night with overnight lows dipping into the single digits to around 0 degrees, while highs on Wednesday look to top off between 10-20 degrees.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS) .

VFR conditions will persist through this afternoon. A wind shift to the northwest is expected this evening into early tonight as low pressure and an associated cold front move through. Winds will become gusty for a time overnight into Friday until high pressure begins to build in from the west during the day Friday. Low clouds are possible behind the front late evening into the early Friday morning hours as a colder airmass pushes in. Plenty of sunshine is then expected Friday as the high moves overhead.

MARINE .

Low pressure will slide across central Lake Michigan tonight. Gusty north to northwest winds will develop late tonight into Friday behind the low and associated cold front. Decided a Small Craft Advisory will be needed overnight tonight into Friday for the gusty winds and building waves.

Low pressure approaching from the Northern Plains will bring a round of gusty southerly winds Saturday into Sunday. Gale force gusts will be possible Saturday night into Sunday morning, with the strongest gusts likely across the northern half of the lake.

Gusty northerly winds will develop in the wake of the system later Monday into Tuesday, possibly approaching gale force. A much colder airmass spreading into the region next week will lead to freezing spray conditions.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Friday for LMZ645-646.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Friday for LMZ643-644.



Update . Davis Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine . Davis Friday Night through Thursday . Wagner

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI	10 mi	30 min	WNW 1.9 G 2.9	33°F			1013.9 hPa
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI	16 mi	30 min	WSW 4.1 G 4.1	40°F
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI	36 mi	70 min	SW 6 G 6	37°F			1013.1 hPa (-0.6)
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI	45 mi	70 min	SW 7 G 12	44°F			1012.9 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI

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NW7 G10

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W10 G16

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2 days ago

S8

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W12 G16

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W10 G14

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI	13 mi	15 min	WSW 3	10.00 mi	Fair	36°F	32°F	87%	1012.9 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI	19 mi	18 min	SW 5	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	39°F	32°F	76%	1013.3 hPa
West Bend Municipal Airport, WI	20 mi	15 min	W 5	10.00 mi	Overcast	37°F	33°F	87%	1012.5 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI	24 mi	15 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Fair	34°F	32°F	93%	1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMWC

Wind History from MWC (wind in knots)

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W5

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W11 G16

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SW4

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SW10 G15

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Weather Map

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (0,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI

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