Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bayside, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 4:18PM Thursday December 5, 2019 11:10 PM CST (05:10 UTC) Moonrise 2:20PMMoonset 1:11AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 906 Pm Cst Thu Dec 5 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday morning...
Rest of tonight..West wind 10 to 15 knots veering northwest 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots after midnight, then becoming north 15 to 25 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Friday..North wind 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Friday night..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots backing west late in the evening, then backing southwest after midnight rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots backing south early in the afternoon, then rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ644 Expires:201912061100;;918584 FZUS53 KMKX 060306 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 906 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-061100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayside, WI
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location: 43.24, -87.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 060506 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1106 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

UPDATE.

The surface low pushing across southern Wisconsin was centered near Dodge county with a trough axis/cold front stretching to the southwest. That axis was between Mineral Point and Monroe southwest of Madison. Calm/light winds will become northwest to north and increase tonight. The forecast has had this handled well, so no changes needed.

AVIATION(06Z TAFS).

A cold front pushing across southern Wisconsin late this evening will push through KMSN by the start of the TAFS at 06z and will reach KUES/KMKE/KENW by 07z Friday. Look for the light winds to become northwest to north and become rather brisk later tonight into Friday morning. Additionally, there are MVFR CIGS in the wake of the front, and these are pushing south across the area. They should get into the TAF sites for a least a few hours. These clouds are expected to dissipate overnight, with VFR conditions expected after about 10-11z Friday.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 833 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019)

UPDATE .

The short range forecast remains on track.

MARINE .

The current marine forecast remains on track. Low pressure will slide across central Lake Michigan tonight. Gusty north to northwest winds will develop late tonight into Friday behind the low and associated cold front. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from midnight tonight through mid afternoon Friday for the gusty winds and building waves.

Low pressure approaching from the Northern Plains will bring a round of gusty southerly winds Saturday into Sunday. Gale force gusts will be possible Saturday night into Sunday morning, with the strongest gusts likely across the northern half of the lake.

Gusty northerly winds will develop in the wake of the system later Monday into Tuesday, possibly approaching gale force. A much colder airmass spreading into the region next week will lead to freezing spray conditions.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 510 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019)

UPDATE .

No change to the short range forecast.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS) .

A cold front will push across southern Wisconsin later this evening. Winds will veer to the west then to the north at KMSN between 03-05z Friday and at KMKE/KUES/KENW between 05-07z Fri. Winds could become rather strong and gusty across the southeast in the wake of the front. Additionally, a short period of MVFR CIGS are also possible immediately behind the cold front. VFR conditions should return by around 10z, then remain VFR through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will also diminish quickly by later Friday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 337 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019)

SHORT TERM .

Tonight through Friday night . Forecast Confidence is High:

Low pressure will pass through the forecast area this evening into early tonight, dragging a cold front across southern Wisconsin. Dry weather will continue as this system moves through, with the better moisture/forcing remaining north of the low. Clouds will clear out later tonight behind the front as high pressure begins to move in from the west.

Mostly sunny skies are likely Friday with high pressure overhead. Temps will be colder tomorrow behind the cold front, though the sunshine should help temps up to around normal values for early December.

Clouds will increase Friday night as the high departs, but otherwise quiet weather and near normal temps will continue.

LONG TERM .

Saturday . Forecast Confidence High:

Quiet weather continues into the weekend as a mid-level ridge remains across the upper Great Lakes region and a surface high shifts eastward on Saturday. As surface highs kicks further east, southerly flow returns to the region and warmer temperatures are expected for Sunday with highs in the low to mid 40s.

Sunday through Thursday . Forecast Confidence Medium:

While southern Wisconsin enjoys a quiet start to the weekend, an upper-level trough begins to push across the Pacific Northwest Saturday night. As the trough progresses across the central CONUS, a surface low develops along the Colorado front range. As this system continues to traverse into the Upper Midwest, southern Wisconsin looks to be sandwiched between a right entrance of weak jet leaving the region and a left exit/diffluent of another, stronger 250mb jet Sunday night/Monday. This combined with low-level WAA, should provide enough synoptic lift to support increased precipitation chances beginning Sunday and continuing into Monday. At this time, it looks to start off as rain late Sunday and transition to snow for our northern areas and more of a snow/rain mix for our southern areas.

However, models are not in agreement on where the surface low will track. GFS/GEFS favors a more northward track over southern Wisconsin, while the ECMWF/CMC tracks the low further south across northern IL/northwest IN. Thus, depending on what solution materializes will dictate the precipitaion type across southern Wisconsin. Nonetheless, QPF totals for this event looks to be light at this time and is expected to diminish Monday night as a cold front pushes across the area.

Behind the cold front, expect frigid Arctic air to filter into Wisconsin as the upper-level trough axis pushes east by Tuesday and as surface high pressure builds across the northern Plain/Upper Midwest on Wednesday. Tuesday night looks to be our coldest night with overnight lows dipping into the single digits to around 0 degrees, while highs on Wednesday look to top off between 10-20 degrees.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS) .

VFR conditions will persist through this afternoon. A wind shift to the northwest is expected this evening into early tonight as low pressure and an associated cold front move through. Winds will become gusty for a time overnight into Friday until high pressure begins to build in from the west during the day Friday. Low clouds are possible behind the front late evening into the early Friday morning hours as a colder airmass pushes in. Plenty of sunshine is then expected Friday as the high moves overhead.

MARINE .

Low pressure will slide across central Lake Michigan tonight. Gusty north to northwest winds will develop late tonight into Friday behind the low and associated cold front. Decided a Small Craft Advisory will be needed overnight tonight into Friday for the gusty winds and building waves.

Low pressure approaching from the Northern Plains will bring a round of gusty southerly winds Saturday into Sunday. Gale force gusts will be possible Saturday night into Sunday morning, with the strongest gusts likely across the northern half of the lake.

Gusty northerly winds will develop in the wake of the system later Monday into Tuesday, possibly approaching gale force. A much colder airmass spreading into the region next week will lead to freezing spray conditions.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Friday for LMZ645-646.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Friday for LMZ643-644.



Update . Davis Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine . Davis Friday Night through Thursday . Wagner


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 10 mi30 min WNW 1.9 G 2.9 33°F 1013.9 hPa
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 16 mi30 min WSW 4.1 G 4.1 40°F
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 36 mi70 min SW 6 G 6 37°F 1013.1 hPa (-0.6)
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 45 mi70 min SW 7 G 12 44°F 1012.9 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI13 mi15 minWSW 310.00 miFair36°F32°F87%1012.9 hPa
Milwaukee, General Mitchell International Airport, WI19 mi18 minSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy39°F32°F76%1013.3 hPa
West Bend Municipal Airport, WI20 mi15 minW 510.00 miOvercast37°F33°F87%1012.5 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI24 mi15 minN 010.00 miFair34°F32°F93%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMWC

Wind History from MWC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5W4W6W4W3W4W3W3W3CalmCalmS5S7S5S7S3S7S4S7S4S3S5SW4W4
1 day agoW5W11
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2 days agoSW4SW5SW7SW6SW8S4S6SW8SW8SW7SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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