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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 105 Pm Cdt Tue May 7 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening - .
Rest of today - Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Tonight - Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots after midnight, then becoming west 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through around midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight. Wednesday - West wind 5 to 10 knots backing south early in the afternoon, then becoming east 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot. Wednesday night - Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the evening, then becoming 10 to 20 knots after midnight becoming 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Gusts up to 25 knots. Chance of showers through around midnight, then showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 4 feet in the late evening and overnight.

LMZ600
No data

FXUS63 KMKX 071537 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1037 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms continue this morning. Additional showers and thunderstorms will redevelop this afternoon and evening, a few of which could be strong to severe.

- Small craft conditions are expected today.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.



UPDATE
Issued 1037 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

The initial line of showers and storms moving northeast this morning will continue its trek through Wisconsin. Upper level lift and support from the trough centered over the northern Plains will create enough synoptic support to prevent any subsidence on the back side of this line of storms. What this means is that there will be cloud cover that continue to linger throughout the day. Filtered sunlight to very brief breaks in the cloud cover will be the most southern Wisconsin should get.
This will limit the environmental recover a bit for this afternoon. Warm moist air advection will aid in temperatures and dewpoints climbing again boosting low level instability. The main concerns for redevelopment along the warm/occluded front this afternoon will be hail. Mid level lapse rates continue to look impressive around 7-8 C/km which will aid in the hail development. Still cant rule out a brief spin up, but the best chances for any tornadic activity will be right along the warm front. Low level Storm Relative Helicity and soundings in general aren't very supportive of spinning, but the warm front will provide a wind direction shift that could be just enough.
Regardless chances are low and anything that does develop will be brief.

Patterson

SHORT TERM
Issued 410 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Today through Wednesday:

Synopsis/Mesoanalysis: GOES water vapor imagery places a nearly stationary upper low over the MT-ND-SD border vicinity early this morning. Positioned between the Northern Plains upper low and shortwave ridging over the Western Great Lakes, a diffluent upper flow pattern is evident over the Upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a now occluded surface low has been analyzed over western ND, with an occluded front being drawn southeast toward St. Cloud, MN. A cold front extends southwest from this region into the Central Plains, with a warm front apparent from the Twin Cities into the Wisconsin River Valley. Encouraged by a combination of the aforementioned features, a line of showers and storms is in progress over east-central IA, and is expected to track across the region near and after sunrise today as it slowly weakens. Said activity will push east over Lake Michigan by late-morning/early afternoon, allowing the warm front highlighted previously to advance northeast into the state. Additional shower and thunderstorm development is anticipated during the afternoon and evening hours as temperatures climb into the upper 60s and low 70s in the wake of the boundary.
Severe weather is possible in this activity. Redeveloped showers and storms will push east over Lake Michigan tonight, giving way to dry conditions through the first half of Wednesday. A secondary area of low pressure will approach from Iowa on Wednesday afternoon, ultimately passing south of the region. Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances will increase once more ahead of this feature Wednesday afternoon, with the best chances holding off until Wednesday night & the beginning of the long term period.

This Morning: Expect the ongoing shower/storm activity over IA to hold together and push east across the region. Earlier CAM guidance suggested that this activity would be well into its weakening phase while crossing the area, and while this expectation generally remains on track, convection has been able to maintain itself at levels not progged in the aforementioned set of earlier CAM solutions. Said trends have been noted observationally over the last several hours, with jumps in lightning activity and cooling cloud tops continuing to occur in satellite imagery. A combination of lingering MUCAPE and sufficient shear is likely behind the persistence of convection at strong to marginally severe levels, and while activity will encounter decreasing shear as it moves into southern Wisconsin after sunrise, guidance does show several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE over the region as storms move through. Will thus need to monitor trends for an isolated stronger storm with small hail/gusty winds as activity pushes in, though the aforementioned weakening shear and stable boundary layer conditions should preclude a greater risk from materializing.

This Afternoon & Evening: With early morning activity pushing east over Lake Michigan, winds will turn out of the southwest across the region as the warm front discussed in the synopsis advances north.
The wind shift/related warm advection -- combined with any breaks in the clouds behind the departing showers & storms -- will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 60s and low 70s away from Lake Michigan. Said surface heating, combined with lift along the front & lingering diffluence aloft, will support scattered redevelopment of showers and storms across the region this afternoon and evening.
These storms will be forming as an area of colder temperatures aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates overspread the region. Combined with sufficient effective shear ranging between 25-35 kt, the potential for large hail will thus exist in any redeveloping storms this afternoon. Isolated damaging wind gusts will also be possible given dew point depressions in the boundary layer. While far and away secondary to the hail & damaging wind potential, a brief spin up can't be ruled out, particularly in locations positioned near the warm front where winds will back out of the southeast & low level shear will be enhanced. Be sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings this afternoon & evening. Severe potential will taper by mid-evening as activity pushes east over Lake Michigan.

Quigley

LONG TERM
Issued 410 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Wednesday night through Monday:

While a marginal risk is painted over far southwest Wisconsin through the overnight hours Wednesday night into Thursday, it currently looks like it'll be difficult for us to realize a severe threat owing to a couple of factors. First, a trough attached to an area of low pressure over Lake Ontario will sink south over Wisconsin late in the afternoon. This will drive cool northeast flow off of the lake and cause a strong inversion that could push as far inland as Madison. Second, more favorable flow and PVA from a compact 500mb cutoff low will be focused south of the state, and favorable return flow of moisture from the Ohio River Valley will be blocked by an early day MCS. We'll still realize precipitation over our area Wednesday night into Thursday owing to some weak 850 to 700mb WAA in escutcheon with a TROWAL over the area, but the precip will be stratiform to shower in nature.
There will be pockets of CAPE aloft, ranging from 250 to 500 J/kg, so a rumble of thunder can't be ruled out with this activity.

Rain should linger into Thursday afternoon before tapering off as the TROWAL shifts east. Conditions dry for Friday with a mix of sun and clouds as a weak surface ridge shifts southeast over the state. Rain chances then return Friday night as a weak shortwave sinks southeast across the state. This shortwave should drive the formation of a weak sfc low that will meander southeast over southern Wisconsin through Saturday, causing areas of showers.
High pressure and better weather then takes over by Sunday.

CMiller

AVIATION
Issued 1037 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected today across southern Wisconsin through this evening. As the line of showers/thunderstorms moves northeast through the area this morning, ceilings around 2 kft to 500 ft will be possible with visibilities ranging from 2-6 SM. Behind this line of storms, ceilings of 2-5kft will persist through the afternoon. The cloud deck is expected to be scattered to broken during this time.
Once the rain ends, visibilites will improve back toward 10 SM.
Additional rain/storms will develop this afternoon and early evening bringing another round of lower IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibilites. Strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon/evening. Tonight VFR conditions will return as skies briefly clear.

East to southeast winds this morning will become southwesterly by late this evening behind the occluded front. Overnight winds become lighter and variable, eventually becoming easterly again by Wednesday afternoon.

Patterson

MARINE
Issued 410 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Breezy east to southeast winds will prevail over the open waters today as a 986 mb low pressure lingers over the northern Great Plains. Periods of showers and embedded thunderstorms will be possible from late this morning through this evening. A few of these storms could be strong with gusty winds and hail, particularly later this afternoon and early this evening. Winds will turn out of the northeast over the lake on Wednesday afternoon and evening as a second area of 1000 mb low pressure passes south and southeast of the open waters. Additional periods of showers and thunderstorms are possible from Wednesday evening through Thursday, with conditions drying out Thursday night. Northerly winds will persist through Friday morning, prior to turning out of the southwest on Friday afternoon as a 1005 mb low pressure moves across Ontario.

Quigley

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM
Small Craft Advisory
LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM Tuesday.

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