Sunrise 6:12 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 3:52 PM   Moonset 4:03 AM

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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 1003 Pm Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
Overnight - West winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Saturday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet. Saturday night - West winds 15 to 20 knots. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet. Sunday - West winds 15 to 25 knots. Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. Sunday night - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. Monday - Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Wednesday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. Rain showers during the day, then a chance of rain showers Wednesday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 201034 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 634 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
A trough will pass over the eastern Great Lakes today with scattered showers and gusty winds. A few of these showers may produce some small hail or graupel. Dry weather will return Sunday through much of Tuesday as high pressure builds east across the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic. Cool temperatures and gusty winds this weekend will give way to a warming trend early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Composite radar shows mostly quiet conditions across western and north central NY this morning. Weak echos, mainly from mid-level moisture stretches from Central NY into the Dacks region. Partial clearing is moving into western NY.

Post-frontal conditions will be realized after daybreak as an upper level trough moves overhead today. Cool temperatures aloft and surface heating will result diurnally driven cumulus and strato cumulus through the daytime hours. The stable airmasses over Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will move onshore and scattered rain showers will develop inland through the afternoon. There will be two main area of scattered to numerous showers today. First will be along a convergence zone south of Lake Ontario. This will be the best zone for showers, stretching from the Niagara Frontier to central NY.
Second area will be across the Saint Lawrence Valley where upper level support and better moisture will drive showers through the region. Forecast soundings show the well mixed boundary layer to 8- 10k feet with 850mb temperatures down to -5C. While surface temperatures will reach the upper 40s to low 50s this afternoon, graupel/small hail is possible in stronger showers. Breezy today with gusts reaching 30-35 mph. Showers will diminish in coverage this evening and dry conditions will be present overnight. Clouds will mostly clear out with the exception of some lake clouds east of Lake Erie. Cool with temperatures in the low 30s across the higher terrain, mid 30s closer to the lakes.

A large area of high pressure over the central plains will extend into the eastern Great Lakes region Sunday. Dry conditions are expected, however there is a slight chance rain showers make an appearance across the Saint Lawrence River Sunday afternoon. Due to low confidence, kept the forecast dry for now. Cool conditions will persist Sunday with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. It will be breezy again but winds won't be as strong as today. Westerly winds with gusts up to 30 mph are possible across the Niagara Frontier and Tug Hill region.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Fair dry weather is promised for this period...as a progressive but flattening mid level ridge and associated wedge of sfc high pressure will traverse the Great Lakes region.

The only feature to keep an eye on though will be a moisture starved cold front that will sweep through the area late Sunday night. While our forecast area will experience a glancing blow of the colder air in its wake on Monday...the vast majority of the colder air will be directed into New England.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure will push off the eastern seaboard Tuesday...as a positively tilted shortwave pivots out south-central Canada and into the northern Plains/upper Midwest region. As this feature moves east into the Great Lakes region Tuesday night, it will partially phase with a deeper closed low wobbling about the vicinity of Hudson Bay.
This will cause the southern trough to dig southward and progressively become more negatively tilted as it marches east though Wednesday. Concurrent broad surface cyclogenesis will lead to an elongated area of low pressure that will extend from the Midwest all the way northeast across Quebec. Deep southerly flow out ahead of the system's main cold front will allow it to tap into a plume of GOMEX based moisture, with a subsequent wide swath of rain showers plowing through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Cooler air will filter into the region behind the system, though strong high pressure building across the Great Lakes should taper off the potential for wrap-around precipitation fairly quick. With the loss of sunlight and cooler air moving in, rain could briefly mix with wet snow across the Tug Hill Wednesday night before ending. Mainly dry weather and clearer skies are then expected Wednesday night through Friday.

Long range guidance can be fairly sensitive to these types of partial phasing setups, which can quickly lead to poor model consensus and large run-to-run jumps in projected solutions. In this case, the latest from the ECMWF/CMCNH are in decent agreement are less bullish on the amount of phasing between the northern and southern stream waves, in stark contrast to the operational GFS which has consistently been more aggressive in this regard. Have leaned on the former which show a slower arrival time of precip Tuesday afternoon and evening. Both operational models advertise areawide dry weather until rain showers move into WNY after sunset, though have stayed close to NBM and left Chc PoPs for Tue afternoon as there remains uncertainty in the exact timing at this range. Less phasing of the two systems also implies the deeper cold air staying confined to the north in Canada, with just seasonable cool advection in the wake of the system. Should this favored trend hold, the already tenuous potential for wet snow on the backside of the system will be minimized even more.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Prevailing VFR conditions will persist across western and north central NY this morning. The boundary layer will become well mixed today as an upper level trough moves overhead. Diurnally-driven stratocu and rain showers will form outside of the stable lake airmasses. A convergence zone will likely set-up inland and south of Lake Ontario where scattered showers will be located, mainly from KIAG/KBUF to KROC and eastward. Small hail may mix in with some stronger showers around midday. There is a lower chance of showers at KART and KJHW today. Prevailing VFR conditions are expected however ceilings will be between 030-050 ft especially south of Lake Ontario. Showers will dissipate towards evening with dry conditions tonight.

Westerly winds will diminish tonight.

Outlook...

Monday...Mainly VFR.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers later in the afternoon.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...Areas of MVFR with showers.

MARINE
Another trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes today, producing another round of solid westerly flow Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Winds will temporarily diminish again tonight, then increase again Sunday with another period of solid westerly flow Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Overall, a poor weekend for boating with chilly temperatures, strong winds, and high waves much of the time.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042-043.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Sunday for LOZ044-045.

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