Saturday, March28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sodus Point, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 7:29PM Saturday March 28, 2020 8:28 PM EDT (00:28 UTC) Moonrise 8:10AMMoonset 10:47PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 509 Pm Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday evening...
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers this evening, then showers likely after midnight. Rain late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Rain with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Rain showers likely in the evening, then a chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. A chance of rain showers during the day. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less. A chance of rain showers. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ044 Expires:202003290315;;216774 FZUS51 KBUF 282109 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 509 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-290315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sodus Point, NY
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location: 43.27, -76.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 282148 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 548 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. A warm front will cross the region late tonight, followed by low pressure moving from the central Great Lakes to just north of Lake Ontario Sunday through Monday. This will produce periods of rain across the region overnight on through the rest of the weekend, with a few showers lingering Monday and Tuesday as the system moves very slowly off the New England coast. A few wet snowflakes may mix in Monday night and Tuesday morning as colder air moves into the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Radar, lightning plots and sfc obs indicate we are in a bit of a reset for the evening after first wave of rain has moved out, other than some light showers/drizzle over parts of the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario. Focus thus far this evening for thunderstorms and moderate to heavy rain is well to the south, running along the sfc warm front from central Illinois to southwest Pennsylvania. At least to this point, seems that models are too far north by one or two tiers of counties in Pennsylvania with where most thunderstorms should be occurring. Based on general west to east storm motion, activity over Pennsylvania will stay south of the Southern Tier next few hours.

However, will have to watch weak shortwave/wave of low pressure over northeast Ohio though as it could interact with pocket of elevated instability per RAP north of the warm front to kick of a batch of showers and thunderstorms, especially once large cluster of thunderstorms over central Pennsylvania disrupting inflow slides far enough east. We'll see how this evolves next few hours.

Otherwise, likely will be until after midnight until next round of widespread showers with embedded thunder moves across our region as warm front begins to make progress toward our area as upper low and primary deep sfc low reach the western Great Lakes. That rain will be driven by increasing warm advection and moisture transport ahead of the warm front. Isentropic upglide and moisture transport will be enhanced on the nose of a 40-50 knot low level jet, with some added support from a mid level vorticity maxima. This will bring another period of fairly widespread rain to the region later tonight through Sunday morning. Elevated instability will gradually increase from southwest to northeast, and this will support a chance of a few embedded thunderstorms as well. Convection will be rooted well off the surface above a low level stable layer, which will likely keep any convective wind risk minimal.

The steady, warm advection driven rain will end from southwest to northeast on Sunday as the warm front moves across the eastern Great Lakes. There will likely still be a few showers around for the rest of the day, supported by increasing large scale ascent ahead of the mid level trough and the approach of the surface cold front late in the day. Weak instability will also continue through Sunday, supporting a chance of a few more scattered thunderstorms with the warm front in the morning, and then again in the afternoon along or just ahead of the cold front. If there are enough breaks in the rain and dense overcast, the instability may become more surface based later in the afternoon across Western NY, which would support a low chance of a few stronger storms.

It will become quite windy Sunday, from a few different mechanisms. First, a strong 50-60 knot southerly low level jet will cross the eastern Lake Ontario region during the morning and midday hours. This will produce a brief period of enhanced downslope winds along the northward facing slopes of the Tug Hill Plateau, with gusts of 40-45 mph possible. Second, southwest winds will become gusty across Western NY during the afternoon as lapse rates steepen with the approach of the surface cold front. This may also produce gusts of 40-45 mph. Both of these setups look marginal for wind advisory wind gusts for any length of time, but we will continue to monitor model trends.

Temperatures will begin to rise through the 50s later tonight across Western NY, and rise through the 40s east of Lake Ontario as warm advection and southerly downslope winds increase. Temperatures will then soar on Sunday after the steady rain ends. Expect highs well into the 60s in most areas, with low 70s a possibility across Western NY away from the cooling influences of the lakes. The eastern Lake Ontario region will see highs in the 50s.

The cold front will sweep east across the area during the first half of Sunday night. Showers and isolated thunderstorms along the cold front will end from west to east. Deeper wrap around moisture and forcing from the approaching mid level cutoff low will then bring an increasing chance of showers again late Sunday night, first across Western NY and then spreading east across the rest of the area during the pre-dawn hours of Monday. It will remain quite windy Sunday night, with gusts of 30-40 mph common across the region as colder air pours back into the eastern Great Lakes.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Parent low pressure in southeastern Ontario will be weakening while transferring its energy to a secondary surface low off the New England coast for start of the work week. Though weakening, the low to our north will provide a combination of cyclonic flow and ample wrap around moisture as well as the passage of a mid level trough and convergence at the low levels to the east of the lakes will keep the potential for rain showers across much of the region Monday and Monday night. More abundant showers will occur in the areas east of Lake Ontario due to some additional support from upsloping. Some of the rain showers will have the potential to switch over to some wet snow Monday night for the areas across the Southern Tier along the Chautauqua Ridge and east of Lake Ontario.

Showers will begin to taper off in the western counties Tuesday morning as dry air begins filter in from the Canadian surface high well to the north of the Hudson Bay. While the western half of the region will have a brief interlude of dry weather on Tuesday, showers will linger to the areas east of Lake Ontario due to the proximity of the remnants of cyclonic flow from the coastal low.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The next system looks to make its easterly track to our south on Wednesday, kept chances for precipitation along the NY and PA border as model guidances are not aligning in the exact placement of the passing low pressure system. For the remainder of the period the overall weather pattern appears to remain active as the region will remain under a blocked pattern. A large upper level trough will set up over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region which will allow for a few disturbances to rotate through causing periods of rain showers and clouds. Temperatures throughout this period will remain slightly below normal for daytime highs whereas overnight lows appear to remain around normal.

AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Most locations will see a break in steady rain into this evening. The next round of rain will then cross the region from southwest to northeast later tonight through Sunday morning, with a chance of a few weak, embedded thunderstorms during this time as well.

VSBY will drop to MVFR and brief IFR at times in the steadier and heavier rainfall later tonight through Sunday morning. MVFR CIGS have become more widespread at lower elevations from southwest to northeast late this afternoon and that will persist through this evening, with IFR for higher terrain. Overnight IFR will become more widespread across the lower elevations of Western NY, including KBUF and KIAG. Widespread IFR CIGS will continue Sunday morning across Western NY, with MVFR east of Lake Ontario.

The steady rain will taper off from west to east Sunday afternoon, to be replaced by a few more showers and isolated thunderstorms as a cold front crosses the region. CIGS will improve to mainly VFR at lower elevations from west to east, with some MVFR lingering across higher terrain and in any showers that develop.

Finally, low level wind shear will develop Sunday as a strong 50+ knot low level jet crosses the region.

Outlook .

Sunday night and Monday . MVFR/IFR with showers likely. Tuesday . VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers. Wednesday and Thursday . Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.

MARINE. Moderate ENE winds will continue to produce Small Craft Advisory conditions through tonight on the western portion of Lake Ontario. Increasing southerly winds shifting southwest ahead of cold front on Sunday has prompted additional small craft advisories across all of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. These strong winds will continue through Monday on Lake Erie. Winds will be somewhat lighter on Lake Ontario on Monday, but still strong enough to produce choppy wave action.

HYDROLOGY. Several rounds of rainfall will cross the eastern Great Lakes this weekend, with the heaviest and most widespread rain late tonight through Sunday morning as a warm front crosses the region. Total rainfall amounts through the weekend will reach 1.25-1.75 inches across the western Southern Tier, and 0.75-1.25 inches across the rest of the region. Locally higher amounts are possible in thunderstorms.

These rainfall amounts will result in rises on area creeks and rivers, but latest RFC forecasts suggest all the larger rivers will remain within their banks. The Allegheny River and upper Genesee Rivers will see the greatest rises and will need to be monitored closely. Both of these rivers have headwaters in northern PA, which may see higher rainfall amounts.

Beyond the rivers, the rain will result in minor ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage areas this weekend.

Will maintain a mention in the HWO to highlight the small chance for flooding with this system.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 11 AM EDT Monday for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 11 PM EDT Monday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 11 AM EDT Monday for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for LOZ043. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for LOZ044-045.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock/JLA NEAR TERM . Hitchcock/JLA SHORT TERM . EAJ LONG TERM . EAJ AVIATION . Hitchcock/JLA MARINE . Hitchcock/JLA HYDROLOGY . Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 29 mi59 min SE 8 G 14 45°F 1015.1 hPa41°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 32 mi89 min SE 16 G 19 45°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 34 mi65 min 45°F 1013.6 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY32 mi35 minVar 55.00 miFog/Mist44°F41°F89%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE445E6E45SE6SE8SE76E8E7E7SE75
1 day agoNW5NW9NW9NW6NW9
G16
NW9N7N4N6N7NW4N7N6NW8NW10NW83W5NW9NW8NW7NW7N3Calm
2 days ago6SE5SE5SE4SE3SE4SE5SE444SE5SE33SE65SE55S10SW7S9S5W4NW12NW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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