Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sodus Point, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 5:43PM Thursday February 20, 2020 8:14 PM EST (01:14 UTC) Moonrise 5:32AMMoonset 2:47PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202002210415;;844066 Fzus51 Kbuf 202144 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 444 Pm Est Thu Feb 20 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-210415- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 444 Pm Est Thu Feb 20 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm est this evening...
Tonight..West winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Scattered snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Mainly clear. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers likely with a chance of snow showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots . A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less. The water temperature off rochester is 35 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sodus Point, NY
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location: 43.27, -76.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 202232 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 532 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. While our current cold airmass will support some nuisance light lake snow showers for the counties lining the south shore of Lake Ontario tonight . an expansive arctic high drifting across the center of the country will guarantee fair weather for our region Friday through the upcoming weekend. Meanwhile we can anticipate day to day warming with temperatures climbing to well above normal by Saturday night and Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. A northwest flow aloft will combine with the last vestiges of a sub arctic airmass (H85 temps of -18c) to keep some nuisance lake snow showers in place south of Lake Ontario tonight . but given a strong cap at 5k ft . additional snowfall amounts (generally north of the BUF-SYR portion of the NYS Thruway) will range from a half to at most two inches. Even less impressive snowfall will be found southeast of Lake Erie . primarily due to an even lower cap and also due to a shorter fetch.

Elsewhere . scattered flurries and light snow showers will give way to partial clearing. Tonight will be the coldest night of the week for the foreseeable future with mins ranging from the single digits and low teens over the western counties to the minus single digits across much of the North Country.

On Friday . Light lake effect snow will make its way northward along the east shore of Lake Ontario as winds will back to WSW in the lowest few thousand feet and sufficient over-water instability remains. Local accumulations of an inch or two could occur, though most areas will only see a dusting. Otherwise, skies will clear out through the day as the high pressure ridge drifts across. Temps will rise into the upper 20s to lower 30s, but increasing southwest winds of 15-30 mph with higher gusts (strongest over western NY) as pressure gradient tightens in the afternoon, will result in a chill to the air as apparent temps stay in the teens.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. A broad area of high pressure will engulf much of the eastern half of the contiguous United States for the weekend. This feature will keep dry weather throughout the Friday night to Sunday night time frame.

As the high pressure makes way into the region, a tightening pressure gradient will also be over the area causing gusty winds Friday night through Saturday. The breeziest winds look to occur over the lakes, along the lake shores and in the northern half of western NY overnight on Friday with gusts of 30-40 mph possible.

Overall, temperatures will gradually increase throughout the weekend with daytime highs on Saturday reaching the mid to upper 30s whereas Sunday may see some highs in the 40s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. The long term period from Monday through Thursday will become more active as a large and highly amplified mid and upper level trough develops over the western third of the country.

An area of low pressure over the southern Plains on Monday morning will track northeast toward the region, causing the increased potential for precipitation on Monday afternoon through Tuesday night. Uncertainty in guidance for strength and track is present with the GFS and ECMWF. The GFS takes a slightly stronger low to the north of the area producing more rain than snow. The ECMWF takes the low to the south of the region as a weaker storm, but also pulls more cold air in and trends toward more snow. Both the GFS and the ECMWF have the area of low pressure weakening as it tracks out of the southern plains, but that is the extent of the agreement between the two models.

Another area of low pressure will develop over the southern Plains as the northern jet dives southeast across the Rockies and phasing of the northern and southern jets cause the surface low to form. This northern jet diving south and strengthening the upper and mid level trough will also bring colder Canadian air south into the lower 48 states and eventually to the Northeast. The area of low pressure will continue to strengthen as it tracks toward the northeast. Guidance is in fairly good agreement with the track and timing of the system, with the low tracking over the area from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon and lake enhancement/effect after the system passes to the northeast. Where guidance is not in agreement is the strength of the system over the region, the GFS brings the pressure down to 974 mb over the Saint Lawrence Valley and the ECMWF down to 995 mb for the same location. Precipitation type will be dependent on temperature which guidance is still currently spread on, but as of this writing, snow looks like the most likely p-type.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. While a cold northwest flow will keep MVFR conditions in lake snow showers in place southeast of both lakes tonight . most if not all of the major TAF sites will experience VFR weather.

High pressure over the nations mid section will then extend in our direction for Friday. This will maintain fair VFR weather across our region . although some residual weak lake snow showers will be found east of Lake Ontario. Its possible that this could produce some MVFR conditions at KART late in the day.

Outlook . Friday night through Sunday night . VFR conditions. Monday . Deteriorating to MVFR with rain showers likely. Tuesday . MVFR to IFR in scattered rain showers.

MARINE. High pressure over the center of the country will extend across the Lower Great Lakes tonight. While this will continue to allow winds and waves to subside across the region . winds will freshen Friday and Friday night as the axis of the large surface high will gradually push south of the Ohio valley In fact. a new round of small craft advisories will be needed for Lake Erie and the eastern end of Lake Ontario by Friday afternoon. Since this will largely be an offshore flow for areas east of Mexico Bay . additional small craft advisories may be needed for the remainder of the Lake Ontario nearshore waters by late Friday.

Fresh to strong southwesterlies will then remain in place across the Lower Great lakes on Saturday . before a relaxing of the sfc pressure gradient during the second half of the weekend will allow winds and waves to subside.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ043- 044.



SYNOPSIS . RSH NEAR TERM . JLA/RSH SHORT TERM . EAJ LONG TERM . SW AVIATION . RSH MARINE . RSH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 29 mi56 min NW 18 G 24 23°F 1032.4 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 32 mi74 min W 7 G 8.9 22°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 34 mi62 min 20°F 1032.8 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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G28

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY32 mi20 minW 1010.00 miOvercast21°F6°F52%1032.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6NW8NW10W6NW8SW7W7W9SW7NW4NW6NW8N13
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1 day agoW14
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NW13NW10W4SW4
2 days agoE4CalmCalmE45SE8
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.