Sunrise 5:36 AM   Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 2:43 PM   Moonset 2:25 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

LOZ044 Expires:202405180300;;384796 Fzus51 Kbuf 172027 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 426 pm edt Fri may 17 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-180300- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 426 pm edt Fri may 17 2024
Tonight - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms through the early overnight, then a chance of showers late. Patchy fog from late evening on. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less. Saturday night - East winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - South winds less than 10 knots becoming north. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday night - Light and variable winds. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - South winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 50 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 180611 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 211 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
A few showers or an isolated thunderstorm will continue to be possible today. Dry weather returns areawide tonight which lasts through Tuesday. It will also become unseasonably warm with temperatures climbing well above normal. Unsettle weather returns by mid-week and turning progressively cooler.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Showers and pockets of drizzle will begin to diminish overnight into this morning as low-level forcing weakens and the deeper moisture exits off to our east. Low cloudiness and some pockets of fog will linger for part of the morning hours but some measure of clearing will take place by this afternoon. This will allow for limited instability to build with advertised 300-700 J/kg. With lingering moisture and effects from the trough we could see a few showers or even a thunderstorm develop this afternoon. The best chance to see a shower or storm will be found across Western NY (Southern Tier), and along any subtle boundary. Highs today will be found in the 70s for most locales.

Tonight...any lingering showers will quickly diminish with the loss of daytime heating
After that
generally quite and dry weather will take hold
That said
with lingering low-level moisture due to the recent rains some fog formation will be possible overnight.

Otherwise...a pleasant night is expected with lows found in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Little change in MSLP Saturday. Surface high pressure remains along the east coast with variable winds across the forecast area. Ridging will build into the forecast area as the shortwave trough moves into the Capitol Region Saturday. Daytime heating and low level moisture will likely lead to diurnal showers and an isolated thunderstorm, mainly across interior western NY or along a lake breeze boundary.
Highs will reach the low to mid 70s.

Saturday night will begin a period of dry and warm weather across western and north central NY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A high amplitude upper level ridge will be entrenched along the spine of the Appalachians and into New England to start the period.
With the ridge axis centered along the eastern side of the CWA, the surface high pressure center itself will slowly wander from being centered over the western end of Lake Erie on Monday toward the east coast on Tuesday. As a result of the gradual progression, weak southerly (or even southeasterly) flow on Monday afternoon will to a stronger southwesterly flow on Tuesday and Wednesday. With the eastward slumping of the surface ridge and increasing momentum off the deck from Monday through Wednesday, surface to 850 hPa mixing should increase and allow for strong afternoon run ups in temperatures with interior sections from the Genesee Valley eastward easily jumping into the mid 80s while even most of the lakeshores approach 80F during this interlude as select guidance has 850 hPa temperatures running up to +16 to +18C. The only places in the CWA that may reach their thermal apex on Monday rather than Tuesday or Wednesday seem to be the Niagara Frontier and the Watertown areas, where the south/southeasterly flow would keep any lake-influenced air out of the picture. With stronger southwesterly flow on Tuesday and Wednesday, these areas may hold back a few degrees relative to their more interior peer locations.

While all will seem bright and sultry early next week, don't dare be fooled that summer is here as things go way off the tracks shortly thereafter. A massive pattern shift looks to be in store for the second half of next week. The semi-resident ridge will slide off the east coast with an upstream closed 500 hPa low ever-so-slowly ejecting from the Rockies toward the upper Great Lakes. Several successive short-wave troughs with associated reinforcing shots of cooler air will push through the region beyond Wednesday as a result. This will lead to steadily increasing chances of showers with temperatures falling back substantially from where we will have been by that juncture. In fact, while the forecast features a consensus of wildly disparate guidance numbers by the end of next week and the upcoming Memorial Day holiday weekend, there are several fairly reliable pieces of guidance in the mix that would suggest some drastically colder conditions will be in the mix by that time. Evidence of this can be gleaned from the +4C at 850 hPa on the ECMWF and +3C on the Canadian global by Sunday, as well as the -3C on the GFS Friday morning. While each of these numbers by themselves doesn't mean a whole lot, when we approach the Friday through Sunday period as a whole, it would certainly tend to lean toward the belief that a portion of it is likely to be significantly colder than we have been accustomed to.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Showers will gradually weaken but low-level moisture will bring at times IFR-LIFR cigs and vsbys to area terminals overnight into this morning. There will also be pockets of fog with lower vsbys, especially at KJHW.

A few showers or even an isolated thunderstorm will again be possible this afternoon across Western NY. Mainly focused across the Southern Tier, and along any subtle boundary
Elsewhere
mostly dry with VFR flight conditions.

Tonight...any lingering showers will diminish with the loss of daytime heating. There will be some fog possible overnight which may bring some impacts with LIFR-IFR conditions.

Outlook...

Sunday through Tuesday...mainly VFR.

Wednesday...VFR-MVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
Light winds with minimal wave action expected on the lakes through Monday. South winds develop and begin to pick up by Tuesday as a cold front near the eastern Great Lakes but conditions will likely remain below small craft levels. The next chance at small craft conditions may materialize by midweek as low pressure sends a cold front through the lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Montague, NY,