Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Irondequoit, NY

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 8:06PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 3:57 AM EDT (07:57 UTC) Moonrise 10:11PMMoonset 11:05AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1015 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms again later in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 49 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201908210915;;960952 FZUS51 KBUF 210215 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1015 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-210915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Irondequoit, NY
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location: 43.27, -77.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 210610
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
210 am edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
Warm and humid conditions will persist across the region through
Wednesday while the potential for thunderstorms will gradually
increase. An area of showers and storms will push through the area
Wednesday morning followed by another round of scattered
showers and storms ahead of strong ahead of a cold front
Wednesday afternoon and evening, some of which could contain
some gusty winds and heavy rain. A prolonged stretch of
beautiful weather including cooler and less humid conditions
will then set in from Thursday through the upcoming weekend.

Near term through today
Radar imagery showing a large area of showers and embedded
thunderstorms just off to the west, stretching from southern ontario
southward to northeastern ohio. These showers will move into western
ny over the next couple of hours, then progress across the remainder
of the region Wednesday morning.

As we push through the remainder of the overnight, remnants of a
convectively enhanced shortwave that is crossing northern ohio will
push an area of showers and storms on its' front side into western
ny late tonight, then press across the remainder of the area through
Wednesday morning. The highest pops will be along and south of the
thruway across western ny late tonight, then spreading to points
southeast of lake ontario by daybreak Wednesday.

The airmass in advance of this feature will be relatively unstable
by late night standards, with plenty of elevated CAPE (avg 500 j kg)
to tap into. While the storms will likely produce locally heavy rain
(pwat values approaching 2") and frequent lightning, still not
anticipating severe weather.

Otherwise it will be warm and muggy through the early morning. Mins
will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s across the lake plains to
the mid 60s across the southern tier and the lower 60s in lewis
county.

While unsettled conditions are expected across parts of the forecast
area on Wednesday... Including the threat for strong to severe
convection... Many areas will also likely experience a long stretch
of problem free weather. As we open the day... Convection from the
aforementioned convectively enhanced shortwave will be moving east
across the region, with this first batch of rain then mostly ending
from west to east later in the morning. Elevated CAPE values
averaging 500 j kg will help to fuel the convection... But with only
20 kts of bulk shear being forecast... Am not anticipating a high
threat for severe weather. The storms will have a higher chance for
producing very heavy rain with localized amounts in excess of an
inch in under an hour. The threat for significant rainfall will be
supported by pwat values that will approach 2 inches and a nearly
saturated moisture profile that will include -10c level (mixed
hydrometeors) of nearly 20k ft. This environment will favor warm
rain processes... So radar based rainfall estimates should be used
with caution.

Subsidence in the wake of the morning shortwave should provide a few
hours of dry time in many areas from late morning through early
afternoon. Scattered storms will then re-develop along and inland of
the lake breeze boundaries by mid afternoon. Meanwhile increasing
southwest flow off the lakes will result in stable lake shadows,
which may keep areas near buffalo and watertown mainly dry for the
bulk of the afternoon. Renewed convection along the lake breeze
boundary will feed off an increasingly unstable airmass (sbcapes as
high as 1000 j kg) to support likely pops over the finger lakes and
inland portions of the western southern tier. While this convection
could include some storms with gusty winds and heavy rain...

sufficient shear for organized bowing line segments will be meager.

By early evening... A strong cold front will be approaching from
southern ontario. Increased convergence along and ahead of this
boundary will then combine with a modest 30kt low level jet to
strengthen any ongoing convection. This will be the time when strong
to severe storms will be the highest, although given the timing of
the cold front the greatest severe weather risk along the cold front
may end up being in southern ontario. As of the writing of this
discussion... The storm prediction center only has portions of the
finger lakes and eastern lake ontario region outlined in a marginal
risk area.

Other than the threat for strong storms on Wednesday... It will once
again be warm and humid. MAX temps will be in the low to mid 80s for
most areas while surface dewpoints will climb to around 70.

Short term tonight through Friday night
A cold front will be in the process of moving east across the region
with associated convection, probably over east of the eastern lake
ontario region Wednesday evening. There may be another trailing
line initially moving sse across lake ontario and into wny and
central ny in the evening as well. Once these move through, expect
generally quiet weather to end the week.

A relatively high amplitude upper level pattern will temporarily be
over central and eastern canada beginning Wednesday night, defined
by a large ridge axis over manitoba and downstream low over ontario
and quebec. This setup is already getting started, with a building
ridge over the western us (and points north) along with an upper
level low SW of hudson bay northern ontario. By Thursday, the
southern reaches of the latter feature will be felt over wny for the
remainder of the week with a corresponding cool airmass and below
normal temperatures. This should be more refreshing than anything
else, with highs about 5-10f below normal and mainly in the low 70s
both Thursday and Friday.

The continental sourced airmass should result in dry weather,
although moisture initially trapped in the wnw flow may start off
with weak lake effect clouds and maybe a sprinkle or two from the
upslope flow. This should morph into an abundant inland
stratocumulus field on Thursday and or Friday. Meanwhile, with the
early fall-like weather airmass and continued subsidence, expect
some overnight and early morning valley fog.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Saturday and Sunday the axis of sprawling surface high pressure
will slowly drift from the central great lakes to the mid-atlantic
and new england coastlines... While weak troughing slowly gives way
to building heights aloft. The 12z 20 ECMWF maintains more in the
way of troughing aloft during this time frame and consequently tries
to spit out a few spotty light showers... However feel that this is
overdone with dry weather more than likely to prevail given
plentiful dry air and subsidence attendant to the surface ridge.

Monday and Tuesday the medium range guidance begins to diverge
with respect to how quickly the ridge slides further east and
out to sea... And gives way to the next trough and associated
moisture approaching from the west. The GFS remains fastest with
this overall scenario and brings increasing chances for convection
into our region... While the ECMWF lies on the other side of the
guidance envelope and keeps the ridge intact and our region
totally dry through Tuesday. Given continuity and a general
distrust for the GFS this far out... Will lean toward the latter
scenario and keep dry weather in place through Monday... With
only very low-end chances for convection returning on Tuesday.

Otherwise... The combination of general airmass modification and warm
air advection will lead to a slow but steady day-to-day warming
trend through this period... With highs in the lower to mid 70s on
Saturday climbing back to the upper 70s and lower 80s by Monday.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
An upper level disturbance to move east into the region through
early morning. This system will bring increasing chances of showers
and thunderstorms to western ny through early morning, then
spread east across the rest of the area through the remainder of
Wednesday morning. Areas of ifr CIGS may develop across the
western southern tier late tonight and Wednesday morning. A few
areas of MVFR CIGS will also be possible toward the kroc
terminal late this morning through the mid afternoon. Otherwise,
mainlyVFR will prevail for the rest of the area, with any MVFR
to ifr conditions limited to in and near thunderstorms.

The first batch of showers and storms will mostly end from west to
east Wednesday morning as the upper level disturbance moves into
eastern ny. Renewed scattered convection will develop in the
afternoon along and inland of the lake breeze boundaries. Meanwhile
southwest flow off the lakes will allow stable lake shadows to form,
keeping areas near kbuf and kart mainly dry in the afternoon.VFR
will prevail from late morning through the evening, with any MVFR to
ifr conditions limited to in and near thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday... MainlyVFR with nothing more than southern
tier valley fog producing local ifr to MVFR conditions each morning.

Marine
High pressure will continue light winds and waves on the lower
great lakes through early Wednesday morning.

A southwesterly flow will increase Wednesday ahead of a cold front
with waves building to 2-4 feet on lake erie during the midday and
afternoon. A cold front will swing across the lower lakes Wednesday
evening and early overnight... With waves and winds increasing within
the cold air advection environment.

Wnw winds over the shorter fetch of lake erie will build waves 2-3
feet Wednesday night and Thursday, while a longer fetch and slightly
stronger wind flow over lake ontario could bring waves 5 feet or
greater on the southern lake ontario shoreline. Small craft
advisories may be needed later this week for these higher winds and
waves on lake ontario.

Tides coastal flooding
A strong cold front will cross the lower great lakes Wednesday
evening. Strengthening northwesterlies in the wake of the front will
increase wave action and combine with already high lake levels to
produce the potential for significant shoreline erosion and flooding
Wednesday night into Thursday evening. A lakeshore flood watch
continues from niagara county to oswego county.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Lakeshore flood watch from this evening through Thursday
evening for nyz004>006.

Lakeshore flood watch from this evening through Thursday
afternoon for nyz001>003.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jm rsh
near term... Hitchcock jm rsh
short term... Zaff
long term... Jjr
aviation... Hitchcock jm
marine... Hitchcock jm rsh
tides coastal flooding... Rsh jla


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 0 mi58 min SSW 9.9 G 12 78°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 1 mi64 min 78°F 1010.9 hPa
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 26 mi38 min S 9.7 G 12 73°F 71°F1011.1 hPa70°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 59 mi64 min SSE 8 G 13 72°F 1012.4 hPa64°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY11 mi64 minSW 410.00 miOvercast74°F66°F79%1012.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4CalmCalmCalmSW3SW44S5SW6SW8W56SW6S8SW8SW4SE4SE6SE4S4S3SW3W3SW4
1 day agoSW8W17
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2 days agoW4SW4CalmSW3SW7SE6SW7S6SW7SW8SW6W10NW10W8W7W7W5SW6S5S5SW7SW8SW7W8
G27

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.