Saturday, October19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Irondequoit, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 6:23PM Saturday October 19, 2019 4:19 PM EDT (20:19 UTC) Moonrise 9:22PMMoonset 12:06PM Illumination 64% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 425 Am Edt Sat Oct 19 2019
Today..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers Monday night. Waves 1 foot or less building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Rain during the day, then showers likely Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of showers Wednesday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 7 feet, then subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 59 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201910191515;;933183 FZUS51 KBUF 190825 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 425 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-191515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Irondequoit, NY
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location: 43.27, -77.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 191949
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
349 pm edt Sat oct 19 2019

Synopsis
Splendid weather for viewing the peak of the fall foliage
continues as high pressure passing to our east will provide us
with us with fair dry weather through Monday. The pleasant
weather will be accompanied by day to day warming with
temperatures climbing as high as the lower 70s across the
western counties for Monday. A dramatic change back to more
seasonable fall weather will then take place for the remainder
of the week.

Near term through Sunday
A bit of fair weather CU earlier but skies have become sunny across
the region this afternoon. After a frosty start which likely ended
the growing season for all but a select few locations, temps have
reached the 50s this afternoon. High pressure remains over the
region tonight into Sunday. May see some mid to high clouds
associated with remnants of post tropical system nestor clipping
finger lakes later tonight into Sunday morning. Does appear that
rain with this system should stay over far southeast ny toward nyc
and long island. Weak return flow and some clouds tonight will allow
temps tonight to be warmer than last night with mainly lower 40s
expected. Favored cold spots could see readings into the upper 30s,
with even lower 30s east of lake ontario closer to the sfc high
axis.

Skies will start off mainly sunny on Sunday, but mid to high clouds
will begin to increase in the afternoon over western ny as shortwave
trough swings across the upper great lakes. Will also see the clouds
over the east slowly depart through the morning. Increasing h9-h85
temps will result in high temps reaching the lower to middle 60s,
with readings around 60f east of lake ontario.

Short term Sunday night through Wednesday
Sunday night, our region will remain under the influence of the
surface high extending from james bay south and east across new york
state. Meanwhile, our next weather maker will be in the process of
exiting the rocky mountains and beginning to track east across the
upper midwest. Otherwise, with the surface high influencing our
weather expect generally clear skies and light wind flow overnight.

This will also allow for good radiational cooling to take place with
some river valley fog formation. Look for lows in the lower 40s
inland away from the lakes with mid to upper 40s along the lake
plains.

Low pressure will then track out of the upper midwest and arrive
across lake superior by late in the day on Monday. As this feature
tracks into the upper great lakes warm advection processes and
southerly flow will pick up across the forecast area. This will aid
in sending our temperatures up well above normal with upper 60s to
the lower 70s across the lake plains. Overall, it should be a fine
fall day across the area with plentiful sunshine expected for a good
portion of the day. It will make for a perfect day to get out and go
see the fall foliage, especially to go see letchworth state park
which is near or at peak.

The surface low over lake superior will slowly drift northward into
southeast ontario canada and mature Monday night. As it does so, it
will slowly pivot its trailing front into and then slowly east
across new york state. As the front crosses the forecast area it
will bring an area of widespread rainfall to the area for a good
portion of the day Tuesday. In regards to rainfall amounts, most
locations should expect to see rainfall totals come in just under an
inch. Behind the front, widespread rainfall will taper off along
with winds veering around to southwest. Also, over the course of the
day h850t will cool and are forecast to drop per ECMWF gfs NAM from
+12c to ~+2 3c by Tuesday evening.

The steadier precipitation should all be in the process of winding
down for our forecast area by early Tuesday night. Behind the front,
the atmospheric column will continue to cool. This in combination
with the broad mid level trough wrapping additional moisture in
across the lower lakes will support lake effect showers northeast of
both lakes. However, it will only be a brief window for lake driven
rain showers given the fact that synoptic moisture gets quickly
stripped away and equilibrium levels drop by Wednesday. With that
said, this event or setup will be somewhat similar to last
Wednesday. In that event some lightning and graupel was observed
within the stronger rain showers. Current bufkit forecast profiles
do show lake induced equilibrium levels climbing to near 21k for
this next event. Additionally, the depth from the surface to -10c
will be nearing 10k, which is another key ingredient. So it's not
out of the realm of possibility that some of the stronger showers
will again be able to produce lightning and graupel. Stay tuned!
behind the front it will be markedly cooler with highs by Wednesday
expected to only top out in the 50s.

Long term Wednesday night through Saturday
The pressure gradient between low pressure across hudson bay and
high pressure across the mid-atlantic states will result in a
general southwesterly flow across the region Wednesday night and
Thursday. Initially it will be cool enough aloft to support some
lake effect rain showers Wednesday night, then these may be followed
by more showers with a subtle shortwave embedded in the flow aloft
on Thursday. This said, showers will be scattered in nature and the
majority of the time will be cool and dry.

After this, 12z model guidance continues to differ with the GFS gem
slowly moving a shortwave across the region while the ECMWF has a
cut-off low developing across the southern states. If the former
verifies, there will be a period of rain Friday into Saturday as low
pressure develops in response to the shortwave. It also would result
in cooler conditions on Saturday when there would be a northwesterly
flow behind the system. The ECMWF solution would lead to a mainly
dry and slightly warmer pattern. Given the resulting forecast
uncertainty, have kept pops in the chance range until model guidance
comes to a better consensus. Temperatures will not stray too far
from normal for late october with daytime highs mainly in the 50s.

Aviation 20z Saturday through Thursday
Looking at ideal flying weather through Sunday withVFR conditions
and light winds. Think scattered to broken incoming high clouds may
limit fog coverage in the southern tier, so have no mention at jhw
tonight.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR.

Tuesday... MVFR with areas of rain and fog.

Wednesday... MVFR toVFR with scattered lake effect rain showers
northeast of lakes erie and ontario.

Thursday...VFR.

Marine
As surface high moves across new england through Sunday... A weak
pressure gradient will remain in place across the lower great lakes.

This will maintain light winds and negligible waves through the
remainder of the weekend.

East to southeast winds will begin to freshen on Monday... Well ahead
of a slow moving cold front that will be crossing the mid-western
states.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jla rsh
near term... Jla
short term... Ar
long term... Apffel
aviation... Jla rsh
marine... Rsh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 0 mi80 min ENE 9.9 G 11 51°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 1 mi50 min 51°F 1015.8 hPa
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 26 mi40 min E 7.8 G 9.7 49°F 53°F1017.1 hPa42°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 59 mi50 min NNE 6 G 8 49°F 1017 hPa36°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY11 mi26 minESE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy58°F36°F44%1016.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW10
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NW7NW3SW3SW3W3SW4SW4W4SW3SW4SW3W3SW5SW4SW4SW5W4CalmCalm3CalmE3E4
1 day agoW14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.