Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Irondequoit, NY
May 14, 2024 6:37 AM EDT (10:37 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:45 AM Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 10:31 AM Moonset 1:06 AM |
LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 428 Pm Edt Mon May 13 2024
Tonight - South winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers through the early overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night - East winds 10 knots or less. Patchy fog. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday - North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday - South winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 48 degrees.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 48 degrees.
LOZ005
No data
No data
FXUS61 KBUF 140838 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 438 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
Unsettled weather will continue across the area through Wednesday with period of showers and a few thunderstorms as a frontal boundary slowly crosses the region. After this, a weak high pressure ridge will provide warm and mainly rain-free weather outside of a few afternoon showers.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Frontal boundary remaining across southern Ontario early this morning with a narrow corridor of showers along it, primarily impacting areas close to the Saint Lawrence Valley.
The frontal boundary will remain north of the region this morning then start to push into the region this afternoon. Ribbon a deep moisture will make its way into the region within the warm sector ahead of the southward moving boundary blossoming showers and embedded thunderstorms. The greatest coverage will be south and east of Lake Ontario where instability will be maximized.
Precipitable water values nearing 1.25" not too far above climatological normals, but given the relative small shear vectors and an enhanced theta-e environment the potential exists for repeated rainfall which could be heavy at times with any convective activity. Although severe weather is not expected, could see some small hail and gusty winds with the strongest convection.
The frontal boundary will continue to drift slowly to the south tonight. Precipitation chances, though gradually lowering will continue through tonight.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A weak low pressure system will pass by to our south across the Mid Atlantic region on Wednesday. While the best forcing mid and upper level forcing remains to our south, a southwest to northeast oriented stationary surface boundary will bisect our area with a low level northeasterly flow to the north and a moist southeasterly Atlantic flow to the south of the boundary. This feature will serve as the focal point for the likelihood of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms across our area, with the most persistent activity along and near the surface boundary. PWATs near 1.25" will bring the potential for a few heavier downpours within any stronger convection that develops. Stationary boundary will linger into Wednesday night and Thursday, however shower coverage and intensity will lessen as deeper mid and upper level moisture shifts east of the area. This will lead to Chc PoPs Wednesday evening lowering to SChc during the second half of Wednesday night. Otherwise, despite the cloud cover and rain, temperatures will be seasonable on Wednesday with highs mainly in the mid to upper 60s.
Boundary will start to drift southeast on Thursday as surface high pressure tries to nose in across the area from the northwest.
However, a lingering low level moist Atlantic flow combined with diurnal heating will lead to increasing chances for showers once again, mainly from the western Southern Tier and Finger Lakes northeast to the eastern Lake Ontario region in closer proximity to the lingering boundary. Instability owed to daytime heating may be enough to trigger a few more afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. High pressure will then nose in across western and northcentral NY, bringing a brief period of dry weather Thursday night. Should gain a at least a few degrees on high temperatures for Thursday with at least some breaks in the thicker overcast expected with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s area wide, with a few mid 70s possible for areas that see more in the way of sunshine.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Ridging surface and aloft will slowly slide east into New England on Friday. This should allow mainly dry weather to continue for much of the day before the next trough approaches from the western Great Lakes bringing the next chance for showers and a few scattered thunderstorms later in the day, mainly across western NY.
Otherwise, the progressive flow aloft will continue to allow impulses and shortwaves to quickly ripple from west to east across the area, maintaining chances for showers and thunderstorms this period, with the best chances for showers and even a rumble of thunder Friday night and Saturday with a trough passage. Will continue with continuity, keeping Lkly PoPs during this timeframe.
Model consensus then diverges some as to how quickly the trough exits east of our region. A faster eastward progression would bring drier conditions for the second half of the weekend into the start of the new work week, however if the trough slows, some showers and scattered thunderstorms could linger into Sunday and possibly even Monday. With this in mind will have Chc PoPs in for both days at this point.
Temperatures will be near to a bit above average during this period.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Dry weather and VFR conditions this morning as a frontal boundary remains nearly stationary across southern Ontario. Some showers will linger close to the boundary, but this activity should remain north of KART. Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms increase with instability this afternoon. Mainly VFR with localized IFR in heavier showers and thunderstorms.
Outlook...
Tonight...MVFR/IFR in showers, stratus, and fog.
Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with a chance of showers, along with lingering stratus. Improving later Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Thursday...VFR.
Friday...VFR. A chance of showers late.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.
MARINE
A light southerly flow will continue this morning ahead of a cold front. The cold front will sink south across the lower Great Lakes this afternoon with winds become more variable on the lakes, before becoming northeast behind the front Wednesday.
These northeast winds do pick up late Wednesday, but should stay below 15 knots with some choppy contains developing, especially on the west end of Lake Ontario. The flow turns southerly by Friday and remains from that direction through the weekend with conditons remain under headline criteria.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 438 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
Unsettled weather will continue across the area through Wednesday with period of showers and a few thunderstorms as a frontal boundary slowly crosses the region. After this, a weak high pressure ridge will provide warm and mainly rain-free weather outside of a few afternoon showers.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Frontal boundary remaining across southern Ontario early this morning with a narrow corridor of showers along it, primarily impacting areas close to the Saint Lawrence Valley.
The frontal boundary will remain north of the region this morning then start to push into the region this afternoon. Ribbon a deep moisture will make its way into the region within the warm sector ahead of the southward moving boundary blossoming showers and embedded thunderstorms. The greatest coverage will be south and east of Lake Ontario where instability will be maximized.
Precipitable water values nearing 1.25" not too far above climatological normals, but given the relative small shear vectors and an enhanced theta-e environment the potential exists for repeated rainfall which could be heavy at times with any convective activity. Although severe weather is not expected, could see some small hail and gusty winds with the strongest convection.
The frontal boundary will continue to drift slowly to the south tonight. Precipitation chances, though gradually lowering will continue through tonight.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A weak low pressure system will pass by to our south across the Mid Atlantic region on Wednesday. While the best forcing mid and upper level forcing remains to our south, a southwest to northeast oriented stationary surface boundary will bisect our area with a low level northeasterly flow to the north and a moist southeasterly Atlantic flow to the south of the boundary. This feature will serve as the focal point for the likelihood of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms across our area, with the most persistent activity along and near the surface boundary. PWATs near 1.25" will bring the potential for a few heavier downpours within any stronger convection that develops. Stationary boundary will linger into Wednesday night and Thursday, however shower coverage and intensity will lessen as deeper mid and upper level moisture shifts east of the area. This will lead to Chc PoPs Wednesday evening lowering to SChc during the second half of Wednesday night. Otherwise, despite the cloud cover and rain, temperatures will be seasonable on Wednesday with highs mainly in the mid to upper 60s.
Boundary will start to drift southeast on Thursday as surface high pressure tries to nose in across the area from the northwest.
However, a lingering low level moist Atlantic flow combined with diurnal heating will lead to increasing chances for showers once again, mainly from the western Southern Tier and Finger Lakes northeast to the eastern Lake Ontario region in closer proximity to the lingering boundary. Instability owed to daytime heating may be enough to trigger a few more afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. High pressure will then nose in across western and northcentral NY, bringing a brief period of dry weather Thursday night. Should gain a at least a few degrees on high temperatures for Thursday with at least some breaks in the thicker overcast expected with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s area wide, with a few mid 70s possible for areas that see more in the way of sunshine.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Ridging surface and aloft will slowly slide east into New England on Friday. This should allow mainly dry weather to continue for much of the day before the next trough approaches from the western Great Lakes bringing the next chance for showers and a few scattered thunderstorms later in the day, mainly across western NY.
Otherwise, the progressive flow aloft will continue to allow impulses and shortwaves to quickly ripple from west to east across the area, maintaining chances for showers and thunderstorms this period, with the best chances for showers and even a rumble of thunder Friday night and Saturday with a trough passage. Will continue with continuity, keeping Lkly PoPs during this timeframe.
Model consensus then diverges some as to how quickly the trough exits east of our region. A faster eastward progression would bring drier conditions for the second half of the weekend into the start of the new work week, however if the trough slows, some showers and scattered thunderstorms could linger into Sunday and possibly even Monday. With this in mind will have Chc PoPs in for both days at this point.
Temperatures will be near to a bit above average during this period.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Dry weather and VFR conditions this morning as a frontal boundary remains nearly stationary across southern Ontario. Some showers will linger close to the boundary, but this activity should remain north of KART. Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms increase with instability this afternoon. Mainly VFR with localized IFR in heavier showers and thunderstorms.
Outlook...
Tonight...MVFR/IFR in showers, stratus, and fog.
Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with a chance of showers, along with lingering stratus. Improving later Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Thursday...VFR.
Friday...VFR. A chance of showers late.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.
MARINE
A light southerly flow will continue this morning ahead of a cold front. The cold front will sink south across the lower Great Lakes this afternoon with winds become more variable on the lakes, before becoming northeast behind the front Wednesday.
These northeast winds do pick up late Wednesday, but should stay below 15 knots with some choppy contains developing, especially on the west end of Lake Ontario. The flow turns southerly by Friday and remains from that direction through the weekend with conditons remain under headline criteria.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| RPRN6 - Rochester, NY | 0 mi | 38 min | SSW 8G | 62°F | 29.85 | |||
| RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY | 1 mi | 50 min | 61°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KROC GREATER ROCHESTER INTL,NY | 11 sm | 43 min | SW 08 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 57°F | 48°F | 72% | 29.83 |
Buffalo, NY,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE