Monday, October21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Greece, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 6:20PM Monday October 21, 2019 3:30 AM EDT (07:30 UTC) Moonrise 11:27PMMoonset 1:54PM Illumination 49% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 707 Pm Edt Sun Oct 20 2019
Tonight..East winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southeast winds less than 10 knots becoming east and increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 3 feet.
Monday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 7 feet, then subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers Thursday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. The water temperature off rochester is 58 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201910210315;;017591 FZUS51 KBUF 202307 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 707 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-210315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greece, NY
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location: 43.29, -77.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 210622
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
222 am edt Mon oct 21 2019

Synopsis
Pleasant fall weather will continue through Monday as high pressure
will drift east across new england. Recent warming will reach a peak
on Monday with a few locations eclipsing the 70 degree mark across
the lower elevations of western ny. A cold front will then cross the
region Tuesday with periods of rain. Notably cooler air will filter
into our region behind the cold front... And this will set the stage
for more seasonable conditions through the remainder of the week.

Near term through today
Weak high pressure extending back across our region from southern
quebec and the saint lawrence valley will provide us with clear
starlit skies for the remainder of the overnight. This will favor
good radiational cooling so that temperatures by daybreak will range
from the lower 40s in most locations to some upper 30s in the
typically cooler valleys of the southern tier and sites east of lake
ontario. The radiational cooling will also promote typical river
valley fog across the western southern tier that will persist
into the initial daylight hours of Monday.

Monday will then be a spectacular day across the region... As sun
filled skies and an increased east to southeast flow will lead to
more efficient mixing of a very mild airmass. The current forecast
is above all forecast guidance sets... And this may even be too low.

Mixing to 875mb supports highs into the upper 60s to lower 70s
across the lower elevations of western ny. High clouds will begin to
increase late over western ny ahead of stronger system due late
Monday night into Tuesday.

Short term tonight through Wednesday night
Monday night, a maturing nearly vertically stacked low over the
upper midwest will gradually drift east and northeast across lake
superior and then head into central ontario canada on Tuesday. While
this occurs, it will send a corresponding frontal boundary into
and then across the lower lakes. Look for increasing chances
for showers Monday night, then with the front an area of
widespread soaking rainfall which will work across the area
during the day Tuesday. Rainfall amounts from this storm should
average between half to just under an inch for most locations
across western ny. Expect greater amounts across the north
country where terrain effects will play a role in delivering
slightly higher amounts of just over an inch, especially across
the tug hill.

Temperatures wise, Monday night will be the warmest night of this
period and follow a non-diurnal temperature trend. In fact,
temperatures will even warm a bit overnight with warm advection
processes taking over ahead of the cold front. With that said,
expect early lows in the mid to upper 50s across western ny and
upper 40s to lower 50s for north central ny.

The bulk of the widespread precipitation will all but end across
western ny as the dry slot works into and across the lower lakes by
Tuesday evening. While east of lake ontario the back edge of the
steadier precipitation will be in the initial stages of tapering
off. With that said, behind the front a cooler airmass will be in
the process of filtering in across the region. With h850t expected
to drop to ~-1c 2c and lake induced equilibriums climbing to ~14k
feet there will be some measure of lake response. The limiting
factors in this event will be the available amount of synoptic
moisture and the fact that the core of the coldest air will remain
well to our west across the upper peninsula of michigan. Although,
there should be just enough moisture for some lake effect rain
showers northeast of both lakes. Behind the cold front, temperatures
will continue to drop overnight with lows expected to fall back into
the 40s for most locations.

Wednesday, lake effect rain showers will be ongoing but will slowly
diminish over the course of the day off both lakes as equilibrium
levels fall and synoptic moisture pulls away as the parent low lifts
off into the hudson bay. Otherwise, outside of the lake effect rain
showers it will be a cool fall day and with h850t hovering in the
-1c -2c range expect highs only in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Wednesday night, any linger lake effect rain showers will quickly
diminish as drier air continues to filter in along with equilibrium
levels crashing. Otherwise, look for dry weather to establish itself
overnight with lows settling in the low to mid 40s by day
break across the forecast area.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
On Thursday, high pressure centered across the mid-atlantic states
will ridge northward into our region and provide dry weather along
with above normal temperatures. Model guidance has come into better
agreement for late next week, with a consensus showing a shortwave
and associated trough of low pressure moving across our region
Thursday night and Friday. The GFS gem have been consistent with
this, while the ECMWF shows a weaker wave but has been trending
toward other guidance. This will bring a chance of showers Thursday
night and Friday, followed by cooler conditions and a limited lake
response Friday night.

After this, high pressure will move across the region and provide
dry weather for the latter half of Saturday and Saturday night. If
this holds, Saturday night will be chilly with good radiational
cooling conditions. Model agreement deteriorates for Sunday, with
faster guidance suggesting a chance of showers in advance of a warm
front which will be approaching the region.

Aviation 07z Monday through Friday
High pressure exiting across quebec and the st lawrence valley will
continue to provide fairVFR weather across our region through the
upcoming day (mon). The only issues will be some valley fog across
the southern tier that could lead to MVFR to ifr conditions at sites
like kjhw and kelz between 08 and 12z... As well as some fog across
parts of the north country. Local cold pooling near the kart will
support patchy ifr vsbys through daybreak.

Conditions will gradually deteriorate Monday night as a slow moving
cold front will approach the region. While CIGS will remain atVFR
levels for the vast majority of the region... MVFR CIGS will be
likely across parts of the southern tier by daybreak Tuesday. The
lowering CIGS will be accompanied by some rain over the far western
counties... Mainly after 08z.

The largest concern this TAF period will be the onset of low level
wind shear tonight. A southerly 40kt low level jet combined with a
southeast flow at the surface will produce the potentially hazardous
wind shear conditions... So this has been added to the TAF package.

Outlook...

Tuesday... MVFR to ifr in periods of rain.

Wednesday... MVFR toVFR with scattered lake effect rain showers
northeast of lakes erie and ontario.

Thursday and Friday...VFR.

Marine
As surface high pressure moves across quebec overnight... A weak
pressure gradient will remain in place across the lower great
lakes resulting in light winds and negligible waves.

East winds will increase on lake ontario as the high drifts east
across quebec and the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the next
system. This will support a period of moderate easterlies and small
craft advisory conditions on the west end of lake ontario late
Monday afternoon and evening.

Southeast downslope winds will increase Monday evening along the
lake erie shore, and may become strong enough to support small craft
advisory conditions. Southeast winds will then continue to
strengthen immediately ahead of a cold front Monday night. This will
direct the most significant wave action into canadian waters... But
wind speeds (and waves north of mexico bay) could still prompt small
craft advisories during the second half of the night near the
northeast end of lake ontario.

The cold front will then plow across the lower great lakes on
Tuesday. Along with several hours of rain... It will become choppy on
lakes erie and ontario with winds and waves teetering near small
craft advisory levels.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 11 pm edt
this evening for loz042.

Synopsis... Hitchcock jla rsh
near term... Rsh
short term... Ar
long term... Apffel
aviation... Rsh
marine... Hitchcock jla rsh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 3 mi48 min 42°F 1016.5 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 5 mi30 min W 1.9 G 4.1 48°F
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 27 mi30 min E 5.8 G 5.8 53°F 52°F1017.2 hPa52°F
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 55 mi30 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9 48°F 1017.6 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY12 mi36 minN 010.00 miFair42°F39°F89%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW6SW6S3CalmCalmCalmNE6N6NE3CalmCalmSW3W4SW3SW3Calm
1 day agoSW3W3SW5SW4SW4SW5W4CalmCalm3CalmE3E4NE10NE8E6E6E7E5E4S3CalmS3Calm
2 days agoNW8NW8
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.