Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Greece, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Unseasonably cold through tonight with scattered snow showers ending this afternoon, then a warming trend begins Tuesday.

2) Dry with day-to-day warming expected Wednesday through Friday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Unseasonably cold through tonight with scattered snow showers ending this afternoon, then a warming trend begins Tuesday.

Low-level ridging and progressively drier air will build across our region tonight
with a cold dry airmass
light winds...and mainly clear skies for much of the night resulting in ideal conditions for radiational cooling. This will result in lows ranging from the upper teens across the North Country and interior of the Southern Tier to the 20s elsewhere. As the ridge slides off to our east on Tuesday...the southerly return flow of warmer air on its backside will help push temps back into the upper 40s to mid 50s in most places...much closer to but still a bit below average for late April.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry with day-to-day warming expected Wednesday through Friday.

After upstream convection that weakens over our western region Tuesday night...and a few wet snow or rain showers over the Tug Hill and SE of Lake Ontario from a passing shortwave trough over Canada Tuesday night as well, an area of high pressure will build towards our region Wednesday...and provide for welcomed dry weather at least into Friday.

As temperatures at 850 hPa increase from the single digits Wednesday and Thursday to potentially +10C with the advancement of a warm front Friday, our region will have day to day warming near to above normal...with temperatures potentially well above normal Friday, especially for WNY. Friday is also the day with greatest spread among the model guidance with the 25th and 75th percentile differences displaying greater than 10F spread across much of our region. For now

By later Friday precipitation chances will increase, both from a nearing warm front from the west, or potentially a closed low over the western Atlantic and its associated moisture that may rotate westward.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Surface high pressure and drier air will build in tonight, with widespread VFR conditions. Widespread VFR conditions will continue Tuesday as the high slides across, then east of our region. There may be some increase in cloud cover through the day.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain showers.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...Mainly VFR with a low chance of afternoon showers.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with scattered to numerous showers.

MARINE
A brief round of 15-20 knot westerly winds will produce choppy conditions across eastern Lake Ontario early this evening...though conditions are expected to remain below advisory levels. Lighter winds will then follow tonight as the axis of surface high pressure crosses the Lower Great Lakes...with winds and waves then expected to remain safely below advisory thresholds for the balance of the work week.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.