Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Greece, NY
May 18, 2024 4:47 AM EDT (08:47 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:41 AM Sunset 8:32 PM Moonrise 2:46 PM Moonset 2:28 AM |
LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1057 Pm Edt Fri May 17 2024
Rest of tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Showers late this evening, then showers likely with patchy drizzle after midnight. A chance of showers with patchy drizzle late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of showers with patchy drizzle in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night - East winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday - South winds less than 10 knots becoming north. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night - Light and variable winds. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday - South winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday - South winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 50 degrees.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 50 degrees.
LOZ005
No data
No data
FXUS61 KBUF 180837 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 437 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
A few showers or an isolated thunderstorm will continue to be possible today. Dry weather returns areawide tonight which lasts through Tuesday. It will also become unseasonably warm with temperatures climbing well above normal. Unsettle weather returns by mid-week and turning progressively cooler.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Showers and pockets of drizzle will continue to diminish this morning as low-level forcing weakens and the deeper moisture exits off to our east. Low cloudiness and some pockets of fog will linger for part of the morning hours but some measure of clearing will take place by this afternoon. This will allow for limited instability to build with advertised 300-700 J/kg. With lingering moisture and effects from the trough we could see a few showers or even a thunderstorm develop this afternoon. The best chance to see a shower or storm will be found across Western NY (Southern Tier), and along any subtle boundary. Highs today will be found in the 70s for most locales.
Tonight...any lingering showers will quickly diminish with the loss of daytime heating
After that
generally quite and dry weather will take hold
That said
with lingering low-level moisture due to the recent rains some fog formation will be possible overnight.
Otherwise...a pleasant night is expected with lows found in the 50s.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Mainly dry weather expected this period as mid and upper level ridge builds overhead, while elongated surface ridge remains anchored in place, stretching from the Mid Atlantic coast to the New England coast. With very weak synoptic flow in place, expect developing onshore flow with lake breezes pushing inland both days that will keep areas along and near the lakeshores a bit cooler than inland areas.
The only small chances for any precip will be: Sunday during peak heating with a weak lingering surface convergent boundary lying across the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region where a few scattered diurnally driven showers may bubble up. On Monday, humidity levels start to rise a bit more with a deeper southwesterly flow becoming established as mid and upper level ridge axis shifts just to our east. Strong diurnal heating combined with the increased moisture may be enough to spark a few showers along any aforementioned lake breeze boundaries. Confidence is low at this point of this occurring, so capped PoPs below SChc for now. Otherwise, most areas remain dry through the period.
The main story will be the warmth. Rising heights aloft associated with mid and upper level ridge building overhead, a continued south/southwest low level flow, and a good deal of sunshine will help boost temperatures to well above average levels by the start of the new work week. Expect highs Sunday mainly in the mid to upper 70s, with upper 70s to mid 80s on Monday.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A high amplitude upper level ridge will be entrenched along the spine of the Appalachians and into New England to start the period.
With the ridge axis centered along the eastern side of the CWA, the surface high pressure center itself will slowly wander from being centered over the western end of Lake Erie on Monday toward the east coast on Tuesday. As a result of the gradual progression, weak southerly (or even southeasterly) flow on Monday afternoon will to a stronger southwesterly flow on Tuesday and Wednesday. With the eastward slumping of the surface ridge and increasing momentum off the deck from Monday through Wednesday, surface to 850 hPa mixing should increase and allow for strong afternoon run ups in temperatures with interior sections from the Genesee Valley eastward easily jumping into the mid 80s while even most of the lakeshores approach 80F during this interlude as select guidance has 850 hPa temperatures running up to +16 to +18C. The only places in the CWA that may reach their thermal apex on Monday rather than Tuesday or Wednesday seem to be the Niagara Frontier and the Watertown areas, where the south/southeasterly flow would keep any lake-influenced air out of the picture. With stronger southwesterly flow on Tuesday and Wednesday, these areas may hold back a few degrees relative to their more interior peer locations.
While all will seem bright and sultry early next week, don't dare be fooled that summer is here as things go way off the tracks shortly thereafter. A massive pattern shift looks to be in store for the second half of next week. The semi-resident ridge will slide off the east coast with an upstream closed 500 hPa low ever-so-slowly ejecting from the Rockies toward the upper Great Lakes. Several successive short-wave troughs with associated reinforcing shots of cooler air will push through the region beyond Wednesday as a result. This will lead to steadily increasing chances of showers with temperatures falling back substantially from where we will have been by that juncture. In fact, while the forecast features a consensus of wildly disparate guidance numbers by the end of next week and the upcoming Memorial Day holiday weekend, there are several fairly reliable pieces of guidance in the mix that would suggest some drastically colder conditions will be in the mix by that time. Evidence of this can be gleaned from the +4C at 850 hPa on the ECMWF and +3C on the Canadian global by Sunday, as well as the -3C on the GFS Friday morning. While each of these numbers by themselves doesn't mean a whole lot, when we approach the Friday through Sunday period as a whole, it would certainly tend to lean toward the belief that a portion of it is likely to be significantly colder than we have been accustomed to.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Showers will gradually weaken but low-level moisture will bring at times IFR-LIFR cigs and vsbys to area terminals through this morning. There will also be pockets of fog with lower vsbys, especially at KJHW.
A few showers or even an isolated thunderstorm will again be possible this afternoon across Western NY. Mainly focused across the Southern Tier, and along any subtle boundary
Elsewhere
mostly dry with VFR flight conditions.
Tonight...any lingering showers will diminish with the loss of daytime heating. There will be some fog possible overnight which may bring some impacts with LIFR-IFR conditions.
Outlook...
Sunday through Tuesday...mainly VFR.
Wednesday...VFR-MVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
MARINE
The only thing to contend with on the lakes today will be some fog over the open waters
Otherwise
light winds with minimal wave action expected on the lakes through Monday.
South winds develop and begin to pick up by Tuesday as a cold front near the eastern Great Lakes but conditions will likely remain below small craft levels. The next chance at small craft conditions may materialize by midweek as low pressure sends a cold front through the lakes.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 437 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
A few showers or an isolated thunderstorm will continue to be possible today. Dry weather returns areawide tonight which lasts through Tuesday. It will also become unseasonably warm with temperatures climbing well above normal. Unsettle weather returns by mid-week and turning progressively cooler.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Showers and pockets of drizzle will continue to diminish this morning as low-level forcing weakens and the deeper moisture exits off to our east. Low cloudiness and some pockets of fog will linger for part of the morning hours but some measure of clearing will take place by this afternoon. This will allow for limited instability to build with advertised 300-700 J/kg. With lingering moisture and effects from the trough we could see a few showers or even a thunderstorm develop this afternoon. The best chance to see a shower or storm will be found across Western NY (Southern Tier), and along any subtle boundary. Highs today will be found in the 70s for most locales.
Tonight...any lingering showers will quickly diminish with the loss of daytime heating
After that
generally quite and dry weather will take hold
That said
with lingering low-level moisture due to the recent rains some fog formation will be possible overnight.
Otherwise...a pleasant night is expected with lows found in the 50s.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Mainly dry weather expected this period as mid and upper level ridge builds overhead, while elongated surface ridge remains anchored in place, stretching from the Mid Atlantic coast to the New England coast. With very weak synoptic flow in place, expect developing onshore flow with lake breezes pushing inland both days that will keep areas along and near the lakeshores a bit cooler than inland areas.
The only small chances for any precip will be: Sunday during peak heating with a weak lingering surface convergent boundary lying across the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region where a few scattered diurnally driven showers may bubble up. On Monday, humidity levels start to rise a bit more with a deeper southwesterly flow becoming established as mid and upper level ridge axis shifts just to our east. Strong diurnal heating combined with the increased moisture may be enough to spark a few showers along any aforementioned lake breeze boundaries. Confidence is low at this point of this occurring, so capped PoPs below SChc for now. Otherwise, most areas remain dry through the period.
The main story will be the warmth. Rising heights aloft associated with mid and upper level ridge building overhead, a continued south/southwest low level flow, and a good deal of sunshine will help boost temperatures to well above average levels by the start of the new work week. Expect highs Sunday mainly in the mid to upper 70s, with upper 70s to mid 80s on Monday.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A high amplitude upper level ridge will be entrenched along the spine of the Appalachians and into New England to start the period.
With the ridge axis centered along the eastern side of the CWA, the surface high pressure center itself will slowly wander from being centered over the western end of Lake Erie on Monday toward the east coast on Tuesday. As a result of the gradual progression, weak southerly (or even southeasterly) flow on Monday afternoon will to a stronger southwesterly flow on Tuesday and Wednesday. With the eastward slumping of the surface ridge and increasing momentum off the deck from Monday through Wednesday, surface to 850 hPa mixing should increase and allow for strong afternoon run ups in temperatures with interior sections from the Genesee Valley eastward easily jumping into the mid 80s while even most of the lakeshores approach 80F during this interlude as select guidance has 850 hPa temperatures running up to +16 to +18C. The only places in the CWA that may reach their thermal apex on Monday rather than Tuesday or Wednesday seem to be the Niagara Frontier and the Watertown areas, where the south/southeasterly flow would keep any lake-influenced air out of the picture. With stronger southwesterly flow on Tuesday and Wednesday, these areas may hold back a few degrees relative to their more interior peer locations.
While all will seem bright and sultry early next week, don't dare be fooled that summer is here as things go way off the tracks shortly thereafter. A massive pattern shift looks to be in store for the second half of next week. The semi-resident ridge will slide off the east coast with an upstream closed 500 hPa low ever-so-slowly ejecting from the Rockies toward the upper Great Lakes. Several successive short-wave troughs with associated reinforcing shots of cooler air will push through the region beyond Wednesday as a result. This will lead to steadily increasing chances of showers with temperatures falling back substantially from where we will have been by that juncture. In fact, while the forecast features a consensus of wildly disparate guidance numbers by the end of next week and the upcoming Memorial Day holiday weekend, there are several fairly reliable pieces of guidance in the mix that would suggest some drastically colder conditions will be in the mix by that time. Evidence of this can be gleaned from the +4C at 850 hPa on the ECMWF and +3C on the Canadian global by Sunday, as well as the -3C on the GFS Friday morning. While each of these numbers by themselves doesn't mean a whole lot, when we approach the Friday through Sunday period as a whole, it would certainly tend to lean toward the belief that a portion of it is likely to be significantly colder than we have been accustomed to.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Showers will gradually weaken but low-level moisture will bring at times IFR-LIFR cigs and vsbys to area terminals through this morning. There will also be pockets of fog with lower vsbys, especially at KJHW.
A few showers or even an isolated thunderstorm will again be possible this afternoon across Western NY. Mainly focused across the Southern Tier, and along any subtle boundary
Elsewhere
mostly dry with VFR flight conditions.
Tonight...any lingering showers will diminish with the loss of daytime heating. There will be some fog possible overnight which may bring some impacts with LIFR-IFR conditions.
Outlook...
Sunday through Tuesday...mainly VFR.
Wednesday...VFR-MVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
MARINE
The only thing to contend with on the lakes today will be some fog over the open waters
Otherwise
light winds with minimal wave action expected on the lakes through Monday.
South winds develop and begin to pick up by Tuesday as a cold front near the eastern Great Lakes but conditions will likely remain below small craft levels. The next chance at small craft conditions may materialize by midweek as low pressure sends a cold front through the lakes.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY | 3 mi | 60 min | 59°F | |||||
| RPRN6 - Rochester, NY | 5 mi | 48 min | ESE 7G | 60°F | 29.89 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KROC GREATER ROCHESTER INTL,NY | 12 sm | 53 min | SE 05 | 10 sm | Overcast | 61°F | 59°F | 94% | 29.86 |
Buffalo, NY,
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