Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kennebunk, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:07PM Saturday December 14, 2019 8:58 PM EST (01:58 UTC) Moonrise 7:39PMMoonset 10:20AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 631 Pm Est Sat Dec 14 2019
.gale warning in effect through late Sunday night...
Tonight..S winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming sw 20 to 30 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. A chance of showers this evening. Patchy dense fog this evening. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm this evening.
Sun..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft, subsiding to 6 to 9 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of snow and rain in the evening, then snow and rain likely after midnight.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Snow and rain likely in the evening, then a chance of snow after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
ANZ100 631 Pm Est Sat Dec 14 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Winds back to the southwest tonight after a cold front crosses, then strengthen further out of the west during the day Sunday into Monday. The next low pressure system tracks south of the gulf of maine on Tuesday. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kennebunk, ME
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location: 43.32, -70.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 142353 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 653 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

SYNOPSIS. A complex frontal system crosses the area tonight with strong winds over much of the area Sunday. High pressure builds into the area Monday. Low pressure tracking from the Ohio Valley towards southern New England will bring mainly light to moderate snow to the area late Monday night into Tuesday afternoon. Snow showers are possible Wednesday followed by much colder air for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/. Update . Have updated the forecast based on current trends and conditions. We are in a lull in terms of wind gradient this evening, which have allowed for light winds. The light winds with plenty of moisture on the ground from today's rains will continue to allow for patchy dense fog to develop for the rest of this evening. The visibility will drop to a quarter mile at times in some areas and a Special Weather Statement as been issued. Drier, westerly winds will enter the region behind a cold front later this evening.

The main chance for showers will shift to northern areas during the overnight period. This will allow for a decrease in runoff.

Prev Disc . A complex storm system continues to impact the northeast CONUS today with the local area of central New England in a relative lull at this hour. The window for heaviest rainfall has passed by this time with a shortwave warm frontal axis crossing into New Brunswick and dry air intruding aloft, evident on satellite imagery. In its wake, patchy dense fog has taken over as temperatures hover in the mid-40s over much of the area, upper- 30s to near 40 across the north (and at the summit of Mt Washington).

Showers remain on the table through the evening under the larger trough aloft with moisture depth remaining upwards of 1-1.25" PWAT. Then, the frontal triple point crosses bringing one final round of moderate rainfall potential, mainly in the Whites and western Maine mountains owing to southeasterly low- level upslope flow. With the exception of the mountains, PoPs decline steadily overnight after the surface system crosses, drying entirely south of the mountains by dawn Sunday with northwesterly flow taking over. There will be overlap between temperatures falling over the mountains and drying, so expect lingering rain showers to switch to snow showers after midnight across higher terrain and areas north. With northwesterly winds comes cold advection, however, which will allow for better mixing of winds from aloft down to the surface. More on winds below in the short term.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Sunday, mid-level wind fields ramp up on the backside of a departing trough aloft as its axis sharpens, rotating north- northeastward into eastern Canada. Models are fairly consistent bringing a belt of h850 winds exceeding 50 kts, locally 60 kts, through the area during the day Sunday when diurnal and cold advection mixing will maximize. This yields wind gusts at the surface to near 40kts, but favorable downsloping over portions of central/southern NH and western Maine will tend to allow a greater portion of strong winds aloft to mix to the surface. A Wind Advisory has been posted for these areas as a result in coordination with other offices. This may need to be expanded into western New Hampshire, but confidence in mixing conditions is lower there, so will allow for another forecast cycle to determine if an expansion will be necessary.

Along with gusty winds, upsloping cloud cover persists over the mountains Connecticut River Valley with snow showers steadily decreasing through the day. Accumulations ought to be light, on the order of 1-3" with higher amounts possible over higher terrain.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. High pressure will build into into the region Monday with high temperatures slightly below normal. Clouds will be on the increase late Monday as a wave of low pressure moves from the Ohio Valley towards southern New England. The 14.12Z model suite is in general agreement with this low tracking over southern New England late Monday night into Tuesday night leaving us on the cold side of the system.

There are some differences amongst global models in the placement of the axis of heaviest precipitation as well as how much warm air aloft can move northward leading to p-type issues in southern areas. The GFS is the wettest and warmest with the axis of heaviest precipitation over south central New Hampshire into western Maine and snow changing to mixed precipitation over southern New Hampshire. The ECMWF places the axis of heaviest precipitation over Massachusetts and is colder leading to a mainly snow event. The NAM12 has trended slower with this system delaying precipitation until mid morning Tuesday and is similar to the GFS in the placement of heaviest precipitation and bringing a changeover to mixed precipitation over southern New Hampshire. For this forecast package have gone with a multi model blend which yields a mainly snow event and amounts near advisory levels. Although amounts are not overly impressive this system bears watching as it looks to impact the Tuesday morning commute.

The Tuesday system will be followed by a sharp trough that swings through Wednesday bringing scattered snow showers to much of the area. This trough will bring much colder air to area with H8 temperatures dropping below -20 C Thursday morning. The end of the week looks dry and cold with temperatures slowly moderating into the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Short Term . /Widespread LIFR in FG and low ceilings impacts terminals this afternoon in the wake of heavy rainfall seen earlier today. IFR ceilings gradually lift late this evening after another round of rain showers, scattering to MVFR and IFR between around midnight and 5 AM from SW to NE. MVFR, briefly IFR near dawn, ceilings persist at HIE and LEB through tonight into tomorrow morning with rain switching to snow before drying entirely.

Mainly light and variable winds this afternoon increase out of the southwest tonight, becoming gusty by dawn, and strengthening further out of the west tomorrow. Expect gusts exceeding 30 kts for all terminals on Sunday with terminals south and east of the mountains expected to have gusts reaching upwards of 40 kts at times. A period of westerly LLWS is possible around dawn on Sunday before stronger winds begin to mix to the surface.

Long Term . Cloud cover will increase and -SN will break out from SW to NE Monday night into Tuesday that may bring restrictions. Scattered SHSN possible Wednesday followed by improving conditions into the weekend.

MARINE. Short Term . Gale warnings continue through tonight with southerly winds turning southwesterly by dawn, westerly by mid- Sunday. Seas remain greater than 10 ft over the waters tonight, topping 15 ft off the MidCoast tomorrow afternoon as wind gusts ramp up to 40-45kts.

Long Term . Winds relax Monday as high pressure build into the area with gusts dropping below 20 kts Monday afternoon. Low pressure tracking over southern New England will bring -SN over the coastal waters Monday night into Tuesday. Gales are possible Wednesday night into Thursday with strong NW winds.

HYDROLOGY. Continue to monitor rivers and will issue an FLS shortly with the new RFC forecasts. Rivers have crested in most areas with the exception of the Suncook River at North Chichester.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . Wind Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028. NH . Wind Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for NHZ004- 006-008>010-012>015. MARINE . Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ150>154.

JC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 0 mi65 min SSE 4.1 G 6 48°F 42°F986.6 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 1 mi59 min S 2.9 49°F 49°F
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 12 mi115 min SSE 14 G 16 11 ft987.1 hPa
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 23 mi74 min ESE 4.1 54°F 986 hPa54°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 25 mi59 min SSE 26 G 28 51°F 985.3 hPa (-4.4)51°F
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 26 mi69 min S 16 G 19 50°F 45°F9 ft986.4 hPa (-4.9)50°F
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 29 mi65 min 51°F 42°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 42 mi51 min 47°F10 ft

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sanford, Sanford Regional Airport, ME9 mi63 minN 00.25 miLight Rain Fog45°F45°F100%986.8 hPa
Rochester - Skyhaven Airport, NH19 mi68 minNNW 30.50 miLight Rain Fog47°F45°F93%985.6 hPa
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH21 mi2 hrsSE 70.25 miFog52°F51°F99%987 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSFM

Wind History from SFM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N6N4N6N7N6N6N7N7NE9NE9NE10NE5NE5N7N6NW6NW4N6NE5NE5NE3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW4SW3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmSW44S4CalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmN4N6
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Tide / Current Tables for Wells, Webhannet River, Maine
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Portsmouth Harbor Entrance, New Hampshire Current
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Portsmouth Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:41 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:32 AM EST     -1.84 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:08 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:19 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:26 AM EST     1.55 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 01:45 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:08 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:00 PM EST     -2.26 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:56 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:58 PM EST     1.36 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.3-0.2-1-1.7-1.8-1.3-0.8-0.10.81.51.40.90.4-0.1-1-1.9-2.3-2-1.5-0.80.111.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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