Tuesday, October22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kennebunk, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 5:49PM Tuesday October 22, 2019 9:25 AM EDT (13:25 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 3:08PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 859 Am Edt Tue Oct 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday evening...
Rest of today..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of showers this afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..E winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, building to 8 to 11 ft after midnight. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft, subsiding to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. Showers in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
ANZ100 859 Am Edt Tue Oct 22 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. An upper level ridge shifts east today with increasing clouds and easterly flow. A low pressure system and cold front cross tonight into early tomorrow with gusty winds and periods of heavy rain, exiting into the maritimes late Wednesday. A ridge of high pressure follows for Wednesday night and Thursday. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kennebunk, ME
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location: 43.32, -70.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 221300
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
900 am edt Tue oct 22 2019

Synopsis
An upper ridge shifts east today with increasing clouds and
onshore flow ahead of an approaching frontal system. Widespread
rain, heavy at times, will overspread much of the area this
evening and overnight with gusty winds along the coast. The
system will exit into the maritimes on Wednesday with high
pressure and drier air to follow for Wednesday night and
Thursday. A cold front will cross the area Friday with a few
clouds and scattered showers. High pressure and drier air
follows for the upcoming weekend.

Near term until 7 pm this evening
900 am... Minor estf update to reflect the current mesonet and
satellite trends in near term grids.

Prev disc...

730 am update...

forecast is on track with only minor tweaks to morning
temperatures as sites come up and down with radiational cooling
interrupted by incoming cloud cover.

Previously...

patchy fog this morning will gradually clear out as a ridge of
high pressure shifts east, away from the area. Meanwhile a
broad shield of cirrus cloud cover continues to stream over the
area, accompanying falling heights aloft as a broad closed low
approaches from the great lakes region. As the column gradually
moistens today, clouds will increase in coverage and depth,
ultimately limiting afternoon temperatures to the mid to upper
50s across lowland locations. Precipitation may begin to creep
into the extreme southern zones by sunset today, however better
forcing coinciding with better available moisture holds off
until later this evening.

Short term 7 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
This evening, the broad closed trough aloft rotates negatively
into the northeast, in turn developing a strong southerly to
southeasterly jet on the order of 50-60 kts. The jet picks up
the moist remnants of TC nestor leading to a period of moderate
to heavy rainfall overnight along with gusty winds, particularly
along the mid coast. The target time period for heavy rain and
wind impacts thus centers around the timing, development, and
eastward movement of the low level jet, roughly 03-12z
Wednesday.

In general models have consistently yielded 1-2" of rainfall
across the mountains, eastern nh, and most of the state of maine
tonight with a sharp cutoff north of the mountains owing to
favorable southeasterly upslope flow. Much of this could fall
over a 6 hr period as the wave of rain moves SW to NE over the
coastal plain, however 3 hr FFG of 2-3" suggests water impacts
ought to be minimal except locally where fallen leaves may
block drains.

Although it remains unlikely that the strongest winds
associated with the surging jet will mix to the surface over
land due to thermal profiles alone, heavy rain could still
bring a couple 40+ kt gusts to the mid coast surface tonight
into tomorrow morning with sustained winds on the cusp of
advisory criteria. Thus, a wind advisory has been hoisted along
western penobscot bay tonight into tomorrow morning where
eastward southeastward facing shoreline will be most prone to
strong winds.

Further south, a wave forms along the crossing cold front over
the mid-atlantic, moving up the eastern seaboard as the cold
front crosses west to east on the heels of the aforementioned
wave of heavy rain. This provides a final round of rain during
mid- Wednesday, after which a trough axis aloft crosses with a
sharp pop cut off to follow as forcing is lost and dry air
intrudes from the west. A brief period of favorable upsloping on
the back end could prolong light shower activity Wednesday but
the area will be dry by sundown.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
* no significant weather impacts expected through Sunday.

Models are in good agreement for the exit timing of the fast moving
frontal system out of our forecast area by Wednesday night. High
pressure moves in Wednesday night and exits the area by Friday.

On Friday, a cold front moves through giving us clouds and chance
pops across the area into early Saturday. There is not a good
moisture source for this cold front. Depending on timing, of
the bulk of the scattered showers, some inland areas could see
scattered rain and or snow showers.

Another round of dry weather dominated by high pressure for Saturday
night through Sunday.

There is a big divergence in the models on when a system will go
through mid atlantic this weekend early next week. Depending on
which solution pans out will effect if we have any weather on Monday.

Aviation 13z Tuesday through Saturday
Short term...

patchy fog lifts in the couple hours following sunrise allowing
vfr to prevail for most of today with easterly flow on the order
of 5-10 kts. High cirrus clouds early will increase in coverage
and depth through the day, degrading to MVFR and eventually ifr
ceilings from south to north this evening associated with a wave
of rain. Periods of ifr lifr are likely overnight across all
coastal and coastal plain sites in rain with periods of patchy
fog restrictions in breaks. A period of llws is also possible
overnight associated with a surging low level jet.

Skies gradually clear Wednesday afternoon with a return toVFR
from SW to ne, although low clouds could hang around north of
the mountains.

Long term...VFR conditions through Thursday night. MVFR
possible with passage of cold front on Friday into early
Saturday.

Marine
Short term... Scas develop areawide today as onshore flow
increases ahead of an approaching frontal system. Tonight, 10-15
ft waves develop along with gale force winds across mid coast
waters before subsiding by mid day. Scas area wide persist for
the remainder of Wednesday.

Long term... Scas to last into Thursday morning because of gusty
winds and seas.

Hydrology
A fast moving frontal system crosses tonight into tomorrow with
models continuing to send a wave of moderate to heavy rainfall
s to NE across eastern nh into central maine. In general models
have consistently yielded 1-2" of rainfall over these areas
with a sharp cutoff north of the mountains owing to favorable
southeasterly upslope flow. Much of this could fall over a 6 hr
period however 3 hr FFG of 2-3" suggests water impacts ought to
be minimal except locally where fallen leaves may block drains.

Expect modest rises on local brooks and rivers as a result at
any rate, particularly across the headwaters of the
androscoggin, saco, and kennebec basins.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... Wind advisory from 10 pm this evening to 8 am edt Wednesday
for mez027-028.

Nh... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Wednesday for anz153-154.

Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for anz150>152.

Small craft advisory from noon to 8 pm edt Wednesday for
anz150>152.

Gale warning from midnight tonight to noon edt Wednesday for
anz150>152.

Es


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 0 mi55 min N 5.1 G 7 47°F 54°F1022.3 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 1 mi85 min N 6 46°F 44°F
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 12 mi81 min NNE 14 G 16 52°F 55°F5 ft1021 hPa
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 23 mi100 min Calm 45°F 1022 hPa45°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 25 mi85 min NNE 14 G 16 51°F 1020.5 hPa (-0.0)51°F
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 26 mi35 min NE 14 G 16 51°F 53°F4 ft1021 hPa (-0.0)48°F
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 29 mi55 min 47°F 54°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 42 mi47 min 55°F7 ft

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sanford, Sanford Regional Airport, ME9 mi29 minN 410.00 miFair47°F45°F93%1022.8 hPa
Rochester - Skyhaven Airport, NH19 mi34 minN 310.00 miFair48°F44°F86%1022.1 hPa
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH21 mi29 minN 410.00 miOvercast48°F45°F89%1022.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSFM

Wind History from SFM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N5N6N7NE35E6SE4CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmN4N5N4
1 day agoN4N35CalmCalmSE3SE6E4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4
2 days agoNW9
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N7SW6W5SW6NW6W9W8NW4CalmCalmSW3SW3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN5

Tide / Current Tables for Wells, Webhannet River, Maine
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Portsmouth Harbor Entrance, New Hampshire Current
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Portsmouth Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:13 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:08 AM EDT     1.07 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:45 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:39 AM EDT     -1.57 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:30 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:31 PM EDT     1.14 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:56 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:09 PM EDT     -1.87 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.2-0.8-0.20.61.10.90.50.2-0.1-0.8-1.4-1.5-1.2-0.8-0.40.411.10.60.3-0-0.6-1.4-1.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.