Friday, July19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kennebunk, ME

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:16AMSunset 8:19PM Friday July 19, 2019 12:07 AM EDT (04:07 UTC) Moonrise 10:10PMMoonset 7:45AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 1005 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Overnight..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..E winds around 5 kt, becoming S 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Some tstms may produce gusty winds.
Sun night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms. Some tstms may produce gusty winds in the evening.
Mon..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tue night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ100 1005 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. High pressure moves east tonight with a southerly flow beginning over the gulf of maine on Friday. A warm front moves in from the west Friday night with winds shifting to the west behind it for Saturday. A cold front drops down from the north on Sunday and crosses the gulf of maine Sunday night before stalling off the southern new england coastline for the next few days. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kennebunk, ME
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location: 43.32, -70.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 190210
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
1010 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis
High pressure moves east tonight with a warm southerly wind
beginning on Friday. A hot and humid air mass will begin
building into the area. New hampshire will feel the heat and
humidity on Friday, while it spreads to maine on Saturday. Very
hot and humid conditions could lead to heat illness for those
exposed to the heat. The heat and humidity lingers on Sunday
before a cold front moves through and brings cooler and drier
weather for next week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
1010 pm update... Little change to the going forecast. Just a few
minor adjustments to temperatures and sky cover based on latest
trends in observational data.

7 pm update... Just a few minor adjustments at this time, mainly
to sky cover. Have updated skies based on latest trends in
satellite imagery, with mostly cloudy skies over much of nh.

Gradual clearing should be the trend through midnight but will
likely hang on longer than previously forecast (except for
southernmost zones where they will hang on much later).

Otherwise, little change.

Previously...

stalled frontal boundary south of new england will keep low
level moisture flirting with southern new hampshire overnight as
weak onshore flow continues. Hard to say how far inland this
ocean stratus will penetrate but dry air tucking in from the
north should limit northward progress so just thinking the three
southern new hampshire counties will be most likely to see
clouds. Remainder of the forecast area will see variable high
clouds. Lows will be fairly uniform across the area with
readings bottoming out from 55 to 60.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Friday night
A warm front will push in from the west on Friday. Boundary
layer winds will quickly switch into the southwest pushing any
lingering low level moisture out to sea. May see a brief shower
in northern zones in better dynamics as the warm front passes.

Although the day will start with comfortable humidity
levels... Heat and humidity will build Friday afternoon with
highs pushing 90 degrees in southern new hampshire and ranging
through the 80s elsewhere. Exception will be in the midcoast
where southwest flow will hold temps in the 70s.

Along with the heat and humidity will come enough instability
in western zones for afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms mainly across western new hampshire. Good uni-
directional shear may produce some wind damage with stronger
cells but SPC not highlighting the area in a convective outlook.

Nashua and manchester briefly touch heat index of 95 but only
for an hour in the case of manchester. Considering the marginal
situation will hold off on heat advisories in southern new
hampshire and will continue with heat watch for those areas for
Saturday and Sunday.

Diurnal convection will die out Friday evening leaving just
variable cloudiness overnight. Looking for a warm and very
humid night with lows from the mid 60s north to the mid 70s
south.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
While much of maine misses out on the heat on Friday, that won't
be the case for Saturday. With winds shifting to the west, the
hot and humid air mass that has been plaguing the midwest will
move right in all the way to the coast. With the peak of the hot
air over our area on Saturday, afternoon temperatures will soar
into the mid to upper 90s. A few 100 degree readings are
possible as well. Dewpoints begin the day in the low to mid 70s
which will feel quite oppressive. However, models still
indicating some drier air will mix down in the afternoon as the
boundary layer extends up into the drier air aloft. The drying
isn't as dramatic as was seen in the models yesterday, though,
so dewpoints falling into the upper 60s to near 70 during the
peak heating of the day seems appropriate. This still spells
heat index values over 95 for most of the forecast area as well
as values near or over 105 degrees in southeast new hampshire.

Have decided to maintain the excessive heat watch and in fact
expand it eastward slightly as the remains the potential for
heat index values over 105 degrees. With the complication of dry
air mixing down in the afternoon we were not confident enough to
upgrade the watch to a warning just yet. However most of the
area will likely need a heat advisory.

Some thunderstorms forming to our west Saturday afternoon may
drift into the region during the evening. If so, it would
primarily impact northern parts of the area. Otherwise it will
be a warm and humid night with low temperatures in the low to
mid 70s for most.

A cold front moves southeast toward the area on Sunday, but will
take its time making it through the area. As a result we may
actually have one more day of the oppressive heat and humidity
and we may need additional heat advisories or a continued
excessive heat warning. As the front moves down into this humid
air mass there is a chance of thunderstorms during the day on
Sunday. With decent mid level wind flow and strong low level
lapse rates, there will be a chance for these storms to become
strong to severe if they occur. The front moves offshore Sunday
night with any lingering storms ending during the evening. Drier
air will be moving in so temperatures will be able to cool off
into the 60s except for perhaps far southern areas where it may
stay near 70 again.

The front settles south of new england on Monday with any waves
tracking east along the front keeping their impacts over
southern new england. The air mass behind this front is coming
right out of the arctic. If this were january we'd be talking
about some bitter cold, but this time of year we will just be
seeing some refreshing low humidity with temperatures in the 70s
to low 80s for highs for the early part of next week.

For the most part it will be dry next week, but the northern
stream trough axis shifts toward our area and could bring some
showers or thunderstorms primarily in the afternoon. Models
don't agree on what day to bring this through, but the potential
exists as early as Tuesday.

Aviation 02z Friday through Tuesday
Short term... Areas of MVFR ceilings in southern new hampshire
overnight.VFR Friday through Friday night.

Long term...VFR conditions expected as a hot and humid air mass
moves into the area. Some thunderstorms are possible in northern
areas Saturday evening and area wide on Sunday as a cold front
moves through.

Marine
Short term... No flags as winds remain light over the waters
through Friday night.

Long term... Light southwest flow continues through Sunday when a
cold front drops down from the northwest. This front drops south
of the area and stalls south of CAPE cod through early next
week.

Climate
High temperatures this weekend will be hot but are currently
forecast to stay below record levels at concord and may
approach the record at portland on Saturday. The record highs
are as follows:
jul 19
concord: 98 in 1977
portland: 95 in 2013
july 20
concord: 101 in 1977
portland: 96 in 1949
july 21
concord: 101 in 1977
portland: 99 in 1977

Equipment
The concord, nh ASOS remains out of service. At this time a
return to service date is unknown. During the outage, tafs will
continue to be issued for concord without amendments scheduled.

Climate data for concord will also be affected, although backup
sources may be used to fill in data after the fact.

The sugarloaf nwr transmitter is off the air until further
notice. This will be an extended outage as the tower, which was
severely damaged in a winter storm, is rebuilt.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Nh... Excessive heat watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for nhz010-012>015.

Marine... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 0 mi49 min N 1 G 1.9 1014 hPa
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 1 mi67 min WNW 1 61°F 56°F
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 12 mi123 min NNE 1.9 G 1.9 64°F 65°F2 ft1013.9 hPa
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 23 mi82 min E 1.9 59°F 1014 hPa57°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 25 mi67 min NE 1.9 G 1.9 64°F 1013.1 hPa (-1.0)59°F
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 26 mi77 min Calm G 1.9 64°F 64°F1 ft1013.4 hPa (-0.9)59°F
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 29 mi55 min 63°F 60°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 42 mi29 min 64°F2 ft

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sanford, Sanford Regional Airport, ME9 mi71 minN 010.00 miFair58°F55°F93%1014.4 hPa
Rochester - Skyhaven Airport, NH19 mi76 minN 010.00 miFair63°F54°F73%1013.4 hPa
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH21 mi71 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy64°F53°F69%1013.4 hPa

Wind History from SFM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN7NE10NE10NE9NE8NE9NE9E8NE963E5SE7SE8SE5--E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalm3SW4CalmSW3SW6SW5CalmW5W9W7SW10SW7W7W10W7SW4W3SW4S4SW6W5CalmW3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmW3W3--SW3Calm3SW7S7W95W8
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Tide / Current Tables for Wells, Webhannet River, Maine
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Portsmouth Harbor Entrance, New Hampshire Current
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Portsmouth Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:54 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 05:47 AM EDT     -1.95 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:49 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:38 AM EDT     1.00 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:32 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:04 PM EDT     -1.55 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:52 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:48 PM EDT     1.13 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.70.5-0.1-1-1.8-1.9-1.8-1.4-0.80.20.910.80.70.4-0.4-1.2-1.6-1.4-1.1-0.70.10.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.