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Marine Weather and Tides Kennebunk, ME Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 6:31AM

Sunset 5:19PM

Thursday February 20, 2020 8:59 PM EST (01:59 UTC)

Moonrise 6:06AM

Moonset 3:20PM

Illumination 7%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kennebunk, ME

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Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 202337 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 637 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will remain in control of the weather across northern New England through the coming weekend. Temperatures will remain below normal through Friday before moderating this weekend . with temperatures above seasonal norms to begin next week. By the middle and latter portions of next week a series of weather systems will likely bring a period of unsettled weather.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/. 630PM UPDATE . Going forecast seems on track and could not argue with much about temperatures tonight. Only tinkered with a few values here and there to get the hourly trends on pace with current observations. High pressure actually centered in Kansas/Nebraska has a ridge extending all the way northeast to the Saint Lawrence Valley, settling into northern New England tonight. This should allow for some really cold temperatures as clear and calm conditions prevail.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION . High Impact Weather Potential: Bitterly cold temperatures.

Pattern: Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows a ridge/trough pair across the United States . with the eastern trough responsible for another bout of cold air in our region At the surface. a massive area of high pressure centered over the central Plains and Mid Mississippi Valley extends across most of the country. The only significant weather maker is south of this high over the southeastern United States where low pressure is taking shape south and east of the Carolina coast. This low will pass out to sea well south of our area . with the aforementioned high and associated Arctic airmass in control of our weather through tonight. With quiet weather . the forecast focus will be on overnight low temperatures and if there will be any impact on these by cloudiness.

Through this evening: There have been a few reports of snow in the mountains from weak lift associated with a ribbon of vorticity sinking south across the area However. with high pressure continuing to nose in from the west . expect remaining flurries/clouds to clear . with much lighter winds than yesterday. That should allow temperatures to fall rapidly . with readings at 7pm likely already around zero in the moutnains . with values in the teens elsewhere.

Tonight: Very dry airmass in place with PWATs falling to or below 0.05" /-2 sigma/. 1000 mb geostrophic winds fall to 10kts with the nearby ridge axis overnight . suggesting the gradient is weak enough for all locations to go calm As discussed yesterday. the only potential limiting factor to ideal radiational cooling is some mid level cloudiness associated with a weak mid level wave/vort max dropping into the overhead trough. The guidance envelope has slowed in the arrival of any potential cloud cover with H7 moisture thinning as it arrives Thus. expect that it will have a pretty minor impact on overnight lows and for that reason will steer the forecast well below the model consensus . and a bit below the coldest model guidance /NAM/MET MOS/. This yields lows 0 to +5 along the coast . 0 to -5 in the foothills . with minus teens /and likely some minus 20s/ in the mountains. With no winds to speak of . will not issue another wind chill advisory overnight . but certainly temperatures will be bitterly cold.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Friday: Shortwave ridge axis moves overhead in the mid levels during the day with surface ridge axis oriented overhead as well. Outside of a few clouds from another shortwave well to our north and west . expect mostly sunny skies. Westerly winds aloft will allow warm air advection to commence with T8s warming above -10C by late in the day. T9s will actually be fairly similar as well which should allow temperatures to rebound into the mid and upper 20s along the coast and into the foothills with highs around 20 in the mountains.

Friday Night: Northern stream shortwave passes north of our area overnight . with an associated surface warm front moving from west to east along with it. This will allow for an increase in deep- layer moisture over northern areas with more clouds . but to the south expect another mostly clear night. Temperatures will be held from falling as far as the night previous by higher dewpoints . the aforementioned clouds /for northern areas/ and more mixing in the boundary layer given a strengthening westerly gradient Still. it won/t be mild given modest radiational cooling . which should allow northern areas to fall to the single digits in the mountains . and teens to the south and east.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Warmer weather will arrive for the weekend, with 850mb temperatures moderating after the cold snap at the end of this week. Consistent with near zonal flow and the warm phases of the AO/NAO, this trend will continue through early next week. Colder air begins to arrive by late next week as the upper level pattern changes and we see more activity.

During the weekend we will be on the northern periphery of a very large area of high pressure centered over the southeastern CONUS. This high will dominate the sensible weather for the weekend, with a passing surface trough allowing for increasing cloud cover for far northern NH and western ME Saturday.

High temperatures gradually increase over the weekend with a continual supply of westerly flow at the surface and increasingly positive 850mb temperature anomalies. Readings warm into the lower 40s for the mountains and the mid/upper 40s elsewhere by Monday. Locations in the Nashua/Manchester corridor may touch 50 degrees. This warmer weather continues through midweek before dropping some in increasing cloud cover and precipitation.

A cutoff low over the Pacific Ocean reaches southern California by the weekend. This system will gradually become more positively tilted as it moves through the central states early next week. In northern New England, we will be sandwiched between this nearing system to our southwest and a couple additional waves. We will remain in the warm sector initially, with one of these weak disturbance passing to our south and triggering some light showers by early Tuesday.

There should be a decrease in precipitation by late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as this weak wave moves out to sea. Another, heavier slug of precipitation should arrive by next Thursday, this time as the cutoff low finally nears from the Midwest. P-type will be largely dependent on the diurnal trend, with the warmer air at the surface helping to switch p-type over to rain across southern sections. Overall, in this scenario, the coastal plain would receive mostly rain, and the mountains would receive mostly snow. In between, the line between frozen and liquid precipitation will vary depending on time of day and elevation. This means the foothills will likely see a mix of the two.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Short Term .

Summary: A large area of high pressure centered over the central United States will reach north and east into New England with quiet weather expected through Friday night.

Restrictions: VFR conditions will persist through Friday night.

Winds: Northwest winds 10G18KTS will diminish to calm/light-variable overnight before shifting west 5-10KTS for the day on Friday. These westerly winds will likely continue outside of the valleys Friday night . with locations like HIE/LEB going calm.

LLWS: No LLWS is expected through Friday. Strengthening westerly winds aloft Friday night will bring the potential for LLWS throughout the area.

Long Term . VFR conditions expected to prevail at all terminals Saturday through Monday. It is possible that HIE may see periods of MVFR conditions Saturday into Sunday due to cloud cover. Winds will generally be out of the west over the weekend, becoming more southwesterly on Monday.

MARINE. Short Term . Weak mid level disturbance will bring winds back to marginal small craft values tonight before we see a more prolonged respite after midnight and during the day Friday. Westerly winds strengthen again Friday night with another round of SCAs likely needed.

Long Term . SCAs possible for next Tuesday and Wednesday as seas build over 5 ft with low pressure near the waters. Otherwise conditions will be below 25 kts and 5 ft.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. NH . None. MARINE . None.



NEAR TERM UPDATE . Kimble SHORT TERM . Arnott LONG TERM . Hanes

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME	0 mi	59 min	N 6 G 8	21°F	40°F		1030 hPa (+2.4)
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME	1 mi	59 min	NW 4.1	21°F				2°F
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf	12 mi	115 min	NW 18 G 23			2 ft	1029.5 hPa
44073	21 mi	115 min	NNW 18 G 23	28°F	40°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH	23 mi	74 min	N 2.9	22°F			1030 hPa	6°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH	25 mi	59 min	N 18 G 20	24°F			1029.1 hPa (+2.3)	4°F
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME	26 mi	69 min	NNW 18 G 23	23°F	39°F	2 ft	1029 hPa (+1.8)	5°F
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME	29 mi	65 min		20°F	37°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160)	42 mi	51 min			43°F	3 ft

Wind History for Wells, ME

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12 AM

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Last 24hr

NW4 G10

NW4

NW11 G15

NW8 G12

NW9 G14

NW3

W3

W3

W3 G7

W4

W5 G8

W7

W7 G10

NW10 G15

NW10 G18

NW10 G18

W7 G14

NW8 G13

NW11 G15

NW7 G10

NW10 G14

NW7 G10

NW6 G9

N6

1 day ago

N8

N6

N8

NW4 G8

NW4

NW1

W2

W4 G7

W6 G10

W5 G8

W5

W7 G11

W8 G12

W10 G17

NW10 G20

W10 G22

NW21 G29

NW23 G29

NW12 G21

NW11 G20

NW13 G20

NW10 G16

NW6

NW4

2 days ago

NE3

N4

N7 G10

N5

N5 G8

N6

N5

N6

N7

N8 G11

N11 G14

N9

N10

N7

N6

N7 G10

NE4 G9

S17 G21

S13 G19

S12 G15

S14 G18

SE14 G17

SE8 G13

E5

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Sanford, Sanford Regional Airport, ME	9 mi	63 min	NNW 7	10.00 mi	Fair	18°F	3°F	54%	1030.2 hPa
Rochester - Skyhaven Airport, NH	19 mi	68 min	NW 5	10.00 mi	Fair	17°F	3°F	54%	1029.4 hPa
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH	21 mi	63 min	NNW 9	10.00 mi	A Few Clouds	22°F	3°F	45%	1029.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSFM

Wind History from SFM (wind in knots)

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NW5

NW7

NW6

W10

W7

W6

Calm

Calm

Calm

SW5

SW4

SW4

W6

W7

6

W12 G16

W11

W9 G15

W11 G16

NW9

NW7

NW8

NW5

N7

1 day ago

N7

N5

NW5

NW3

Calm

Calm

4

W7

W7

W5

W5

SW8

W12

W14 G18

NW13 G28

W14 G26

NW14 G26

W23 G31

W12 G25

NW8 G21

NW14 G20

NW10

NW6

NW8

2 days ago

Calm

Calm

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N3

Calm

Calm

Calm

N5

N5

N6

N7

N6

N5

N6

N5

NE5

NE5

NE5

N5

N3

NW3

N3

N4

N5

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Tide / Current Tables for Wells, Webhannet River, Maine

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Tide / Current Tables for Portsmouth Harbor Entrance, New Hampshire Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (20,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME

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