Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kennebunk, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 5:19PM Thursday February 20, 2020 8:59 PM EST (01:59 UTC) Moonrise 6:06AMMoonset 3:20PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 235 Pm Est Thu Feb 20 2020
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Light freezing spray.
Fri..N winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Light freezing spray in the morning.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..SE winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely.
Tue night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ100 235 Pm Est Thu Feb 20 2020
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. A ridge of high pressure will remain over the waters through Friday before settling south of the waters this weekend with light to moderate westerly winds expected. Winds will turn southwest on Monday ahead of an approaching low pressure system that will arrive over the waters by the middle of next week. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kennebunk, ME
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location: 43.32, -70.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 202337 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 637 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will remain in control of the weather across northern New England through the coming weekend. Temperatures will remain below normal through Friday before moderating this weekend . with temperatures above seasonal norms to begin next week. By the middle and latter portions of next week a series of weather systems will likely bring a period of unsettled weather.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/. 630PM UPDATE . Going forecast seems on track and could not argue with much about temperatures tonight. Only tinkered with a few values here and there to get the hourly trends on pace with current observations. High pressure actually centered in Kansas/Nebraska has a ridge extending all the way northeast to the Saint Lawrence Valley, settling into northern New England tonight. This should allow for some really cold temperatures as clear and calm conditions prevail.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION . High Impact Weather Potential: Bitterly cold temperatures.

Pattern: Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows a ridge/trough pair across the United States . with the eastern trough responsible for another bout of cold air in our region At the surface. a massive area of high pressure centered over the central Plains and Mid Mississippi Valley extends across most of the country. The only significant weather maker is south of this high over the southeastern United States where low pressure is taking shape south and east of the Carolina coast. This low will pass out to sea well south of our area . with the aforementioned high and associated Arctic airmass in control of our weather through tonight. With quiet weather . the forecast focus will be on overnight low temperatures and if there will be any impact on these by cloudiness.

Through this evening: There have been a few reports of snow in the mountains from weak lift associated with a ribbon of vorticity sinking south across the area However. with high pressure continuing to nose in from the west . expect remaining flurries/clouds to clear . with much lighter winds than yesterday. That should allow temperatures to fall rapidly . with readings at 7pm likely already around zero in the moutnains . with values in the teens elsewhere.

Tonight: Very dry airmass in place with PWATs falling to or below 0.05" /-2 sigma/. 1000 mb geostrophic winds fall to 10kts with the nearby ridge axis overnight . suggesting the gradient is weak enough for all locations to go calm As discussed yesterday. the only potential limiting factor to ideal radiational cooling is some mid level cloudiness associated with a weak mid level wave/vort max dropping into the overhead trough. The guidance envelope has slowed in the arrival of any potential cloud cover with H7 moisture thinning as it arrives Thus. expect that it will have a pretty minor impact on overnight lows and for that reason will steer the forecast well below the model consensus . and a bit below the coldest model guidance /NAM/MET MOS/. This yields lows 0 to +5 along the coast . 0 to -5 in the foothills . with minus teens /and likely some minus 20s/ in the mountains. With no winds to speak of . will not issue another wind chill advisory overnight . but certainly temperatures will be bitterly cold.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Friday: Shortwave ridge axis moves overhead in the mid levels during the day with surface ridge axis oriented overhead as well. Outside of a few clouds from another shortwave well to our north and west . expect mostly sunny skies. Westerly winds aloft will allow warm air advection to commence with T8s warming above -10C by late in the day. T9s will actually be fairly similar as well which should allow temperatures to rebound into the mid and upper 20s along the coast and into the foothills with highs around 20 in the mountains.

Friday Night: Northern stream shortwave passes north of our area overnight . with an associated surface warm front moving from west to east along with it. This will allow for an increase in deep- layer moisture over northern areas with more clouds . but to the south expect another mostly clear night. Temperatures will be held from falling as far as the night previous by higher dewpoints . the aforementioned clouds /for northern areas/ and more mixing in the boundary layer given a strengthening westerly gradient Still. it won/t be mild given modest radiational cooling . which should allow northern areas to fall to the single digits in the mountains . and teens to the south and east.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Warmer weather will arrive for the weekend, with 850mb temperatures moderating after the cold snap at the end of this week. Consistent with near zonal flow and the warm phases of the AO/NAO, this trend will continue through early next week. Colder air begins to arrive by late next week as the upper level pattern changes and we see more activity.

During the weekend we will be on the northern periphery of a very large area of high pressure centered over the southeastern CONUS. This high will dominate the sensible weather for the weekend, with a passing surface trough allowing for increasing cloud cover for far northern NH and western ME Saturday.

High temperatures gradually increase over the weekend with a continual supply of westerly flow at the surface and increasingly positive 850mb temperature anomalies. Readings warm into the lower 40s for the mountains and the mid/upper 40s elsewhere by Monday. Locations in the Nashua/Manchester corridor may touch 50 degrees. This warmer weather continues through midweek before dropping some in increasing cloud cover and precipitation.

A cutoff low over the Pacific Ocean reaches southern California by the weekend. This system will gradually become more positively tilted as it moves through the central states early next week. In northern New England, we will be sandwiched between this nearing system to our southwest and a couple additional waves. We will remain in the warm sector initially, with one of these weak disturbance passing to our south and triggering some light showers by early Tuesday.

There should be a decrease in precipitation by late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as this weak wave moves out to sea. Another, heavier slug of precipitation should arrive by next Thursday, this time as the cutoff low finally nears from the Midwest. P-type will be largely dependent on the diurnal trend, with the warmer air at the surface helping to switch p-type over to rain across southern sections. Overall, in this scenario, the coastal plain would receive mostly rain, and the mountains would receive mostly snow. In between, the line between frozen and liquid precipitation will vary depending on time of day and elevation. This means the foothills will likely see a mix of the two.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Short Term .

Summary: A large area of high pressure centered over the central United States will reach north and east into New England with quiet weather expected through Friday night.

Restrictions: VFR conditions will persist through Friday night.

Winds: Northwest winds 10G18KTS will diminish to calm/light-variable overnight before shifting west 5-10KTS for the day on Friday. These westerly winds will likely continue outside of the valleys Friday night . with locations like HIE/LEB going calm.

LLWS: No LLWS is expected through Friday. Strengthening westerly winds aloft Friday night will bring the potential for LLWS throughout the area.

Long Term . VFR conditions expected to prevail at all terminals Saturday through Monday. It is possible that HIE may see periods of MVFR conditions Saturday into Sunday due to cloud cover. Winds will generally be out of the west over the weekend, becoming more southwesterly on Monday.

MARINE. Short Term . Weak mid level disturbance will bring winds back to marginal small craft values tonight before we see a more prolonged respite after midnight and during the day Friday. Westerly winds strengthen again Friday night with another round of SCAs likely needed.

Long Term . SCAs possible for next Tuesday and Wednesday as seas build over 5 ft with low pressure near the waters. Otherwise conditions will be below 25 kts and 5 ft.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. NH . None. MARINE . None.



NEAR TERM UPDATE . Kimble SHORT TERM . Arnott LONG TERM . Hanes


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 0 mi59 min N 6 G 8 21°F 40°F1030 hPa (+2.4)
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 1 mi59 min NW 4.1 21°F 2°F
44030 - Buoy B0102 - Western Maine Shelf 12 mi115 min NW 18 G 23 2 ft1029.5 hPa
44073 21 mi115 min NNW 18 G 23 28°F 40°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 23 mi74 min N 2.9 22°F 1030 hPa6°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 25 mi59 min N 18 G 20 24°F 1029.1 hPa (+2.3)4°F
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 26 mi69 min NNW 18 G 23 23°F 39°F2 ft1029 hPa (+1.8)5°F
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 29 mi65 min 20°F 37°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 42 mi51 min 43°F3 ft

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sanford, Sanford Regional Airport, ME9 mi63 minNNW 710.00 miFair18°F3°F54%1030.2 hPa
Rochester - Skyhaven Airport, NH19 mi68 minNW 510.00 miFair17°F3°F54%1029.4 hPa
Pease Air Force Base / Portsmouth, NH21 mi63 minNNW 910.00 miA Few Clouds22°F3°F45%1029.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSFM

Wind History from SFM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NW7NW6W10W7W6CalmCalmCalmSW5SW4SW4W6W76W12
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1 day agoN7N5NW5NW3CalmCalm4W7W7W5W5SW8W12W14
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2 days agoCalmCalm--N3CalmCalmCalmN5N5N6N7N6N5N6N5NE5NE5NE5N5N3NW3N3N4N5

Tide / Current Tables for Wells, Webhannet River, Maine
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Portsmouth Harbor Entrance, New Hampshire Current
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Portsmouth Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:13 AM EST     -1.49 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:25 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:05 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:32 AM EST     0.94 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:33 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:13 AM EST     0.93 knots Min Flood
Thu -- 08:21 AM EST     0.97 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:20 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:04 PM EST     -1.84 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:21 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:13 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:19 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:03 PM EST     0.95 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:54 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.4-1.5-1.5-1.2-0.40.50.90.910.90.3-0.7-1.5-1.8-1.8-1.7-1.1-0.20.50.70.810.7-0.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.