Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fair Haven, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 5:43PM Thursday February 20, 2020 1:33 PM EST (18:33 UTC) Moonrise 5:31AMMoonset 2:46PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202002201615;;815880 Fzus51 Kbuf 200905 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 405 Am Est Thu Feb 20 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-201615- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 405 Am Est Thu Feb 20 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Lake effect snow early, then snow showers likely late this morning. A chance of snow showers this afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow showers in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less. The water temperature off rochester is 36 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fair Haven, NY
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location: 43.32, -76.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 201628 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1128 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. Cold northwesterly flow will produce periods of lake effect snow east and southeast of the lakes today. The best chance of accumulating snows will be found off Lake Ontario, with minor amounts expected off Lake Erie. The lake effect snow will begin to diminish tonight and then end by early Friday morning as high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley. High pressure will then provide dry weather and gradually warming temperatures over the weekend. Unsettled weather doesn't return until early next week with a potential mixture of rain and snow.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Regional radar and satellite imagery shows widespread lighter lake effect snow showers along south shore of Lake Ontario. Heavier snow band that brought localized 10-12 inch amounts to southeast of Lake Ontario earlier (see latest PNS and LSR statements for details) has faded as it settles toward the Finger Lakes. In the last hour have seen a bit of flare up to the lake effect into Niagara and Orleans county maybe due to lingering connection off southern Georgian Bay. With lake effect losing its punch, already cancelled all winter headlines from Monroe through northern Cayuga county.

Despite sufficient cold air in place with H85 temps -18c on 12z BUF sounding, dry air with lessening upstream connections and lowering inversions to 5kft will limit additional snowfall rest of the day to an inch or two in the most persistent bands. Farther inland, should see scattered snow showers or flurries begin to expand even into the Southern Tier with some daytime insolation leading to hybrid lake effect/instability shower regime.

Other than the light snow, it will be a cold day with high temperatures in the upper teens and lower 20s across the western counties, to the low to mid teens across the North Country. Meanwhile wind chill could values will largely be in the single digits.

Tonight . Lake snows will expand for a while this evening along Lake Ontario as flow becomes more west-northwest increasing the over water fetch and as winds in the lake convective layer become more alligned with less shear. If bands develop and persist for a few hours, could see additional accumulations tonight of a few inches from Wayne into southern Oswego counties as the SLRs remain high at 25-30:1. Later tonight as winds back to WSW in the lowest few thousand feet and temps at top of inversion remain -12c leading to delta t/s to 15c could still see some light lake effect move into northern Oswego and even Jefferson county. Should only see additional snow amounts of 1-2 inches due to minimal background moisture and low inversion heights/equilibrium levels less than 5kft as high pressure builds from the Ohio Valley to the northeast.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Light lake effect snow will continue into Friday morning east of Lake Ontario before lifting north through mid day as winds continue to back to southwest. Whatever lake snow is leftover northeast of Lake Ontario will dissipate by afternoon as inversion heights drop and low levels begin to dry out.

A large area of high pressure and associated dry air will be over much of the eastern half of the CONUS and will dominate the weather across western and north central New York from Friday afternoon through the upcoming weekend. This will allow for precipitation-free weather through Sunday along with a steady warming trend. A tightening pressure gradient over the forecast area will create some gusty southwesterly winds at times, with Friday and Friday night experiencing the breeziest conditions with gusts of 30-40 mph possible with the highest gusts northeast of the lakes.

Temperatures Friday will remain a bit below average in the upper 20s to lower 30s, reaching the mid to upper 30s Saturday and into the 40s by Sunday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Sunday night will remain dry as high pressure centered over the Carolina's moves off of the seaboard and into the Atlantic. The next chances of precipitation will then enter the forecast as a low pressure system from the deep south tracks northeast towards the Great Lakes. While the models are in agreement with this features existence, there still are discrepancies in its track and timing. That being said, kept slight chances for precipitation starting Monday morning. The exact details in terms of precipitation type will depend on the track of the low. After the parent low passes through, the models are hinting at a coastal low to then form, impacting our weather for midweek. Overall, quite a bit of uncertainty still exists for the next systems, stay tuned.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Lake effect snows off Lake Ontario will slowly push south across the area this morning. This will push the steadiest snow through the KROC terminal between 11Z and 13z when ground operations could be impacted. Delays at that time could occur. Otherwise, outside of the lake snows mainly MVFR-VFR conditions will persist across the region today.

Tonight, lake snows will continue to weaken east and southeast of the lakes then shift back north while diminishing overnight. This should allow all terminals to experience mainly VFR conditions.

Outlook . Friday through Monday . VFR conditions.

MARINE. Winds and waves will largely subside today as a large arctic high centered over the northern plains extends across the Lower Great Lakes. As the resulting sfc pressure gradient weakens, SCAs will be allowed to expire.

Winds and waves will further weak tonight as the above sfc high builds into the eastern Great Lakes.

Expansive surface high will then settle to the south on Friday and Friday night to encourage freshening southwest winds to become established over the region. This is when we can anticipate the next round of small craft advisories, particularly on Lake Erie and the far eastern section of Lake Ontario (north of Mexico Bay).

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ043- 044.



SYNOPSIS . AR NEAR TERM . AR/JLA SHORT TERM . TMA LONG TERM . EAJ AVIATION . AR MARINE . AR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 14 mi46 min NW 15 G 20 22°F 1032.6 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 47 mi34 min NW 12 G 16 21°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 49 mi52 min 23°F 1033.1 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY17 mi40 minWNW 12 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy21°F7°F54%1032.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW17
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NW13NW10W4SW4N6NW8NW10W6NW8SW7W7W9SW7NW4NW6NW8N13
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1 day agoS15
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SW6W12
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2 days agoNW3N4CalmNE4NE33CalmE4CalmCalmE45SE8
G16
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SE55

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.