Tuesday, March31, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fair Haven, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 7:33PM Tuesday March 31, 2020 4:08 PM EDT (20:08 UTC) Moonrise 10:01AMMoonset 12:50AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202003312130;;356803 Fzus51 Kbuf 311423 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 1023 Am Edt Tue Mar 31 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-312130- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1023 Am Edt Tue Mar 31 2020
Rest of today..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Patchy drizzle. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. The water temperature off rochester is 42 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fair Haven, NY
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location: 43.32, -76.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 311721 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 121 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2020

SYNOPSIS. Widely scattered showers will gradually end tonight as low pressure moves off the east coast. A ridge of high pressure will then bring a return to mainly dry weather Wednesday through Thursday across our region. A weak trough will then move westward out of New England and may produce a few showers Thursday night and Friday, especially from the Genesee Valley eastward. High pressure will then bring a return to dry weather Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Satellite imagery showing extensive low clouds in place this afternoon. Scattered showers are found in a few locations, with the best coverage across the western Southern Tier and Tug Hill region. Scattered showers will continue through early this evening, and will likely expand in coverage temporarily during the mid to late afternoon as insolation steepens lapse rates in the moist boundary layer.

The remnants of the weak closed low will remain in place across the Saint Lawrence Valley and northern NY through Wednesday night. While the upper level low will remain in place, deep moisture and what remains of the surface reflection will fade. Enough moisture and forcing will remain across the western Southern Tier to support a few more isolated to widely scattered showers tonight through Wednesday morning, otherwise the rest of the area will stay mainly dry. Low clouds will likely hold strong across most of the area tonight through Wednesday morning in the northeast upslope flow regime. The North Country has the best chance of seeing some clearing overnight through Wednesday morning. Lows will be in the low to mid 30s in most locations tonight, with mid to upper 20s for the North Country.

Wednesday any remaining isolated showers across the Southern Tier will end by late morning, leaving mainly dry weather for the rest of the day. A drier low level airmass will advect into the area from the north. This will bring increasing amounts of sunshine, first for the North Country and areas near Lake Ontario by midday, then spreading southward through the afternoon. The last places to clear will be the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes, where northeast upslope flow will continue to support clouds through at least early to mid afternoon. Highs will be in the mid 40s across lower elevations and around 40 on the hills.

Dry weather will continue Wednesday night as a narrow ridge of surface high pressure and mid/upper level confluent flow sets up over the Great Lakes, sandwiched between a cutoff low off the eastern seaboard and another system in the plains. An extensive field of low level moisture over southern Ontario will advect southward, bringing more clouds into the region. Lows will range from the low to mid 30s on the lake plains to the upper 20s across interior sections of the area.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Thursday a weak/narrow ridge of high pressure will remain in place over the eastern Great Lakes. An area of low level moisture will likely produce plenty of cloud cover in the morning, with some clearing developing across Western NY during the afternoon. The airmass will continue to very slowly modify, with highs reaching the upper 40s across the lower elevations of Western NY, and mid 40s across higher terrain and east of Lake Ontario.

Thursday night and Friday a strong, vertically stacked low well offshore of New England will make a broad cyclonic loop. An inverted trough extending back into New England will be forced westward in the process, allowing deeper moisture, DPVA, and frontogenesis to move westward into at least eastern NY. Model guidance has shown some variation on how far west this will reach. At the very least it will bring an increase in cloud cover from east to west across the region later Thursday night and Friday. A few showers are also possible east of Lake Ontario, with a low chance extending as far west as the western Finger Lakes or the Genesee Valley.

The chances for showers will end later Friday afternoon and Friday evening as the cutoff low offshore of New England finishes its cyclonic loop and heads farther out to sea, allowing deeper moisture and forcing to retreat from our area. Dry weather will then prevail Friday night into Saturday as weak high pressure builds back into the eastern Great Lakes. Temperatures will begin to warm by Saturday, with highs in the mid to upper 50s away from lake influences.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. A weakening mid level trough and surface cold front will approach the eastern Great Lakes late Saturday night, then cross the area Sunday. The stronger forcing will move northeast across Hudson Bay, leaving an ever weakening low level boundary to move east across our area. The weak forcing and lack of moisture will only support a low chance of a few scattered light showers Sunday, along with an increase in cloud cover. Any showers that do develop will end by Sunday evening, with dry weather returning Sunday night.

Weak high pressure will build back into the eastern Great Lakes Monday. The next mid level trough and weak surface low will then move into the western Great Lakes Monday night, before moving into the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes Tuesday. This will bring the next chance of rain to our region, although at this point it appears to be a weak system.

Temperatures will continue to run a little above average Sunday through the early part of next week, although a cooler airmass will be lurking just northeast of the area across Quebec and New England. It would only take a small change in the longwave pattern to bring this cool air into our region.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Extensive low level moisture will continue to produce widespread low stratus this afternoon, with mainly MVFR CIGS. A few widely scattered showers will continue, with brief/local MVFR VSBY in the showers. The showers will mostly end later this evening, with just a chance of a few isolated showers overnight through Wednesday morning across the western Southern Tier. CIGS will improve to mainly VFR at KBUF, KIAG, and KART as drier air slowly moves into the region from the north. Low stratus is more likely to continue across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes, with areas of MVFR and IFR CIGS overnight through Wednesday morning. KROC will be right near the edge of this, with periods of MVFR CIGS possible through Wednesday morning.

The low level moisture will finally pull away Wednesday afternoon, with VFR returning areawide.

Outlook .

Thursday . VFR. Friday . VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers, especially along and east of the Genesee Valley. Saturday . VFR. Sunday . Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.

MARINE. Increasing northeast winds will produce choppy conditions this afternoon and evening along the south shore of Lake Ontario. The northeast winds will increase further tonight through early Wednesday morning, with a period of Small Craft Advisory conditions along the south shore of Lake Ontario. Winds will also increase on Lake Erie, with choppy conditions developing later tonight through early Wednesday.

Winds will diminish by midday Wednesday, with a period of lighter winds then expected through the end of the week.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock NEAR TERM . Hitchcock SHORT TERM . Hitchcock LONG TERM . Hitchcock AVIATION . Hitchcock MARINE . Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 14 mi50 min NE 8.9 G 13 40°F 1016.2 hPa38°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 47 mi68 min ENE 16 G 18 39°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 49 mi56 min 39°F 1016.2 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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G16
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G26
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G27
SE18
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G37
SE20
G32
S18
G28
SE21
G27

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY17 mi14 minN 610.00 miPartly Cloudy48°F39°F74%1015.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5W6W5W3SW4SW4SW4S4W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE33CalmSE4E4SE4N4N6
1 day agoCalmS8
G17
4SE4SW9W20
G31
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W10SW6SW6S4S6S7S7S6S4S6SW10NW11W10NW8W7NW6
2 days agoE7E7SE75E6SE86SE55E6E6SE75E7
G17
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SE11
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G23
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G14

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.