Thursday, October17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fair Haven, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 6:21PM Thursday October 17, 2019 2:36 PM EDT (18:36 UTC) Moonrise 7:46PMMoonset 9:57AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LOZ044 Expires:201910172115;;842752 Fzus51 Kbuf 171240 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 840 Am Edt Thu Oct 17 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-172115- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 840 Am Edt Thu Oct 17 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
This afternoon..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Rain early, then a few more showers likely late. Waves 5 to 8 feet building to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely in the evening, then scattered showers overnight. Waves 7 to 10 feet subsiding to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Friday night..West winds diminishing to less than 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..South winds 10 knots or less. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 57 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fair Haven, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.32, -76.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbuf 171736
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
136 pm edt Thu oct 17 2019

Synopsis
Windy and chilly conditions will continue across the region this
afternoon, with widespread rain for most of the region. The rain
will slowly taper off to scattered showers late this afternoon and
tonight before ending by early Friday. Dry weather will then return
by Friday afternoon as high pressure builds back into the region,
with fair weather and steadily warming temperatures then following
for the weekend as the high slides off the east coast.

Near term through Friday
Radar imagery showing widespread light rain with a few pockets of
moderate rain across the majority of the area early this afternoon,
with the only drier locations across the far southwest corner of the
state removed from the deeper moisture. The widespread rain is being
driven by the remnants of an inverted trough, which is rotating
southward across new york. Associated deep moisture, low level
convergence, and a well defined axis of deformation to the west of
the strong coastal low are supporting this rainfall. In addition to
the synoptic scale forcing, moderate to strong lake instability and
northwest upslope flow are enhancing the rainfall to the southeast
of the lakes. The steadiest rain will last through mid afternoon. By
late afternoon the deeper moisture and best forcing will begin to
move away from the area, which will allow for a gradual decrease in
coverage and intensity of the rain.

Otherwise, expect a chilly afternoon as the widespread showers and
cloud cover will help to inhibit any real warming of our already
cool airmass, with highs remaining confined to the mid 40s across
the higher terrain and the upper 40s to lower 50s across the lower
elevations. The already cool conditions will be made to feel even
more raw by gusty northwesterly winds on the backside of the coastal
low, which will gust to 30-35 mph across much of the area. The
strongest overall winds will be found along the southern shorelines
of lakes erie and ontario, where some gusts will reach 40 mph.

The strong coastal low will accelerate east from the maine coast
this evening to the gulf of saint lawrence Friday. The moist
cyclonic flow will diminish from west to east across our region as
this system moves away, allowing for a continued decrease in
coverage and intensity of showers. Nonetheless, enough lake induced
instability will persist tonight through early Friday morning to
support some lake effect rain showers southeast of the lakes,
supported by orographic enhancement across the higher terrain. High
resolution model guidance suggests a georgian bay connection may
bring an uptick in coverage of showers late this evening and early
overnight for the rochester area. With this in mind, kept pops in
the likely range through most of the night southeast of lake
ontario. Rainfall amounts will be light however, with additional
amounts of a tenth to quarter inch at most in the persistent bands
after 6pm this evening.

Abundant moisture trapped beneath the subsidence inversion will keep
skies overcast across the region tonight. This will keep
temperatures from dropping much, with lows in the lower 40s on the
lake plains and upper 30s across higher terrain.

Friday any remaining light lake effect showers or sprinkles
southeast of the lakes will end by mid to late morning as inversion
heights continue to lower, and moisture becomes too shallow to
support rain. Clouds will be very stubborn to break however with
ongoing shallow lake instability and northwest upslope flow beneath
the steepening subsidence inversion. If there is any clearing across
western ny, it will likely not develop until late afternoon. The
clouds and cool airmass will only support highs in the lower 50s on
the lake plans and mid to upper 40s across higher terrain.

Short term Friday night through Sunday night
The upper level ridge currently east of the rockies with a
corresponding surface high pressure ridge will be directly overhead
Friday night. With strong subsidence, any remaining inland stratocu
should quickly dissipate with mostly clear or clear skies overnight.

This should result in valley fog and areas of frost forecast over
areas where the growing season is still considered active. Sheltered
areas in lower terrain may reach the 32f mark, while other locations
should hover in the lower to mid 30s. In higher terrain, many areas
should be able to drop below 32f.

Despite the cool start, Saturday should turn out to be a nice day
with weak warm air advection on the back side of the ridge which
should be moving toward and off the east coast by the evening. Skies
should remain mostly clear throughout the day and well into the
evening. The slight warm advection together with abundant sunshine
should allow temperatures to generally reach the 60f mark, with the
usual variations by terrain and proximity to the lakes.

Saturday night shouldn't be as cold as the previous night,
but still expect some temperatures to dip into the 30s in
sheltered higher terrain, with ~40f readings elsewhere.

The next system is currently traceable back to the pacific
northwest. This system is forecast to remain fairly weak as it
moves into the plains and then barely make it into the great lakes
region by Sunday. This system will probably go unnoticed as it
moves through. Can envision a mid upper level cloud deck, but right
now will continue to stay on the drier side with low (~15%) chance
for measurable rain for Sunday. Otherwise, the region should see
another day with temperatures creeping into the lower 60s, followed
by another dry night with lows mostly in the 40s.

Long term Monday through Wednesday
While temperatures will average above normal during this period...

they will trend lower as we push towards the middle of the week. The
trend towards cooler... More seasonable conditions will come as a
result of a deep trough over the intermountain west that will evolve
into a very broad trough that will cover the majority of the
country. Fortunately the airmass within the trough will be of
pacific origin... So by the time temperatures bottom out over our
region they will be within a few degrees of normal. The change to
cooler weather will be highlighted by a slow moving frontal system
that could end up supporting another round of soaking rain. The
details...

the period will start off innocent enough as high pressure wedging
south across the st lawrence valley to our forecast area will
provide us with dry weather and comfortable high temperatures. H85
temps will once again climb to near 10c... But unlike the weekend... A
strengthening southeasterly flow should be more efficient at mixing
the airmass. Will be optimistic at this point and aim a little
higher than guidance by going with mid and upper 60s... A solid 10
deg above seasonal levels.

Conditions will deteriorate from that point forward though... As a
deep stacked cyclone over the uppermost mississippi valley will push
a wavy occlusion across lower michigan and the ohio valley. The
likelihood of at least one wave along this occluded boundary will
throw a wrench into trying to time its passage... But guidance is in
fair agreement of a slower progression than earlier advertised. As
the feature approaches lake erie late Monday night... Showers and
possibly an area of steadier rain will move into our forecast area.

Have lowered pops to high chc for sites east of rochester to account
for the slower movement of the front... Which by Tuesday morning will
be nearly parallel to the h7 flow.

The occlusion will then slowly cross our forecast area Tuesday and
Tuesday night. Have raised pops to high likely and have also added
the slgt chc for thunder to account for the strong h25 jet dynamics
that should be in the vcnty during the passage of the sfc front.

Should there be a wave to our south along the boundary... This would
more likely be a prolonged period of moderately heavy rain. Stay
tuned.

The front will then grudgingly push away to our east late Tuesday
night and or Wednesday. H85 temps are forecast to drop to about -2c
in its wake... And with a deep cyclonic flow of moist air in place...

this would ignite the lakes once again with lake effect rain
showers.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
Extensive wrap around moisture from a strong coastal low over new
england continues to combine with lake effect instability and
upslope flow to produce widespread light rain across most of the
region this afternoon, with a few embedded areas of moderate rain.

The widespread rain will give way to more limited lake effect
showers southeast of the lakes late this afternoon through tonight,
with these lake effect showers slowly diminishing late tonight
before ending Friday morning. Vsby will be mostlyVFR from this
point forward, although a few pockets of MVFR will still be found in
the more persistent areas of rain.

Widespread low stratus stratocumulus will continue this afternoon
through at least early afternoon Friday. CIGS will be mainly MVFR
through the time period, with some areas of ifr this afternoon and
tonight across higher terrain. CIGS will begin to slowly improve to
vfr later Friday afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday through Monday... MainlyVFR.

Tuesday... Areas of MVFR with a chance of showers.

Marine
Deep low pressure over new england will begin to accelerate east
along the maine coast tonight before reaching the gulf of saint
lawrence on Friday. Moderate to strong northwest winds will continue
through this evening before gradually diminishing later tonight and
Friday. Small craft advisory conditions will persist through late
tonight on lake erie, and through much of Friday on lake ontario.

High pressure will then build into the eastern great lakes Friday
night and Saturday before drifting off the east coast Sunday. This
will bring a period of lighter winds to the eastern great lakes for
the weekend.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Friday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for
lez020.

Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Friday for loz030.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Friday for loz043-044.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt Friday for loz042.

Small craft advisory until 11 am edt Friday for loz045.

Synopsis... Hitchcock
near term... Hitchcock
short term... Zaff
long term... Rsh
aviation... Hitchcock
marine... Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 14 mi49 min NW 30 G 35 51°F 995.9 hPa46°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 33 mi97 min NW 25 G 29 51°F 58°F6 ft995.6 hPa (+2.0)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 42 mi37 min WNW 25 G 33 51°F 998.1 hPa45°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 47 mi37 min WNW 23 G 32 49°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 49 mi55 min 47°F 999.3 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
Last
24hr
S13
G17
SE11
G16
W12
G15
NW1
W9
W12
W11
G14
S4
S4
S5
W11
G16
W12
G18
W15
G20
W17
G22
NW18
NW17
G21
W16
G21
NW20
G25
NW23
G29
NW24
G29
N18
G25
NW27
NW25
G33
NW27
1 day
ago
W8
N3
NE6
NE8
NE4
G7
E3
SE3
G6
E2
SE6
G10
SE9
G12
SE10
G15
SE8
G11
SE13
G20
SE13
G17
SE15
G21
SE15
G20
SE16
G21
SE16
G24
SE14
G23
SE21
G27
SE19
G28
SE19
G26
S15
G26
SE11
G21
2 days
ago
W13
G17
W15
G19
W15
G19
W11
G17
W11
G15
SW10
G14
S5
G8
S7
S7
S8
S8
S5
S5
G8
SW6
S7
G11
S8
S1
S4
SE4
S5
SW6
W8
G13
W13
W10

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY17 mi43 minWNW 15 G 227.00 miRain49°F44°F83%995.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
Last 24hrS73NW7NW7W8W6W3S3SW3W5SW5W7W8N8NW7W7NW10NW8
G17
NW14
G21
N11
G17
N13NW14
G19
NW14
G22
NW15
G22
1 day ago6S5S4CalmNE3CalmCalm3CalmSE5SE535SE6SE76SE6SE8
G17
SE8
G17
6
G15
SE7
G17
SE7
G16
6
G16
6
2 days agoSW3W5SW3SW3S3S4S4S5SW4SW5SW74S3SW4CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmSW7SW5SW746

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (14,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.