Thursday, August22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fair Haven, NY

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 8:00PM Thursday August 22, 2019 11:05 PM EDT (03:05 UTC) Moonrise 10:36PMMoonset 12:04PM Illumination 50% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 1025 Am Edt Thu Aug 22 2019
This afternoon..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Becoming partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Mainly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east 10 knots or less. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LOZ044 Expires:201908222115;;036355 FZUS51 KBUF 221425 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1025 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-222115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fair Haven, NY
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location: 43.32, -76.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 230249
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1049 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019

Synopsis
A comfortably cool and dry weather pattern will be over western and
central new york right through the weekend. There may be some
typical inland valley fog during the overnight and early morning
hours. The next chance of rain along with warmer weather won't
return until next Tuesday or Wednesday.

Near term through Friday
A relatively amplified upper level pattern is in place over much of
eastern canada southward into the great lakes region. In
particular, a large upper level ridge is over the plains (poised to
give us a prolonged dry weather pattern later this weekend) while a
low spins over quebec. A sw-ne oriented jet aloft shapes the base of
the low, with a parallel and hence slow moving surface front
stretching from the ohio valley through northern pa and into eastern
ny northern new england. The showers that were sneaking into our
area along this boundary have dissipated as they moved into the
interior southern tier of new york, and clear skies have filled
into the majority of our area in their wake. This has left
quickly shrinking dewpoint depressions across most of the area
away from the urban cores and lakeshores. With little upstream
cloud cover to get in the way, it would seem that the stage is
set for fog over pretty much any lower lying locations in the
area and fairly pervasive fog in the river valleys overnight.

On Friday, expect some morning sunshine, followed by fairly
rapid upslope induced inland stratocumulus, with available low
level moisture trapped below ~5000' as depicted with a classic
inverted-v sounding. This should clear out some with afternoon
mixing - areas closest to the lakeshores first, then
progressively inland toward the southern tier by late afternoon.

Short term Friday night through Monday night
One word can be used to characterize the weather during this
period... Spectacular! The undeniably nice weather will be supported
by a progressive ridge that will move from the upper mississippi
valley across the great lakes region to the canadian maritimes. The
ridge will become part of a short lived rex block that will also
include an impotent... Moisture starved cut off mid upper level low
that will stay to our south and east. Meanwhile at the surface...

expansive high pressure will slowly cross eastern canada.

As for some day to day details... It will be quite cool across the
forecast area Friday night with most areas experiencing mins in the low
to mid 50s. For the folks across the western southern tier and in parts
of the north country... It will be feel downright chilly with
temperatures falling well into the 40s. The early fall-like conditions
will be accompanied by generally starlit skies and light winds... As
high pressure will be centered over the upper great lakes. The only
potential fly in the ointment to the otherwise clear skies will be the
passage of a longwave trough axis that could include some patchy mid
level clouds. For what its worth... It will be a vortex within this
southward moving mid level trough that will eventually become cut off
and prove to be the southern component to the aforementioned rex block.

On Saturday... The large surface high will pass by to our north across
the ontario-quebec provincial border. The resulting northeast flow of
dry 'continental polar' air will keep humidity levels quite low... But
it will also support h85 temps in the upper single digits c. This will
translate into afternoon temperatures that will straddle 70 deg f...

well below normal readings for late august. The autumn like airmass
will be tempered though by full sunshine... So this will allow for a
refreshing day for outdoor activities.

As the surface high drifts across the st lawrence valley Saturday
night... It will be just as cool as the previous night under clear skies
and light winds.

The second half of the weekend may prove to be even nicer (if that is
possible)... As the return flow around the exiting high pressure over
the canadian maritimes will encourage a little stronger warm advection.

H85 temps on Sunday will climb back above 10c... So afternoon
temperatures may actually be a little more comfortable for some...

returning to the mid 70s across the valleys and lake plains. Otherwise
we can anticipate Sun filled skies and generally ideal weather for
outdoor activities.

The large surface high... Which will be anchored in the vcnty of the
canadian maritimes Sunday night... Will reach back across new england to
the lower great lakes through Monday night. This will maintain fair dry
weather over our forecast area with temperatures slowly climb back to
above normal levels. High temperatures Monday will generally be in the
mid to upper 70s.

Long term Tuesday through Thursday
There is high confidence that temperatures will average above normal
during this period... As a broad longwave trough will slowly carve
across the center of the continent. Warmer and more humid air will
funnel to the northeast across the lower great lakes in advance of the
trough with h85 temperatures generally in the mid teens c. This will
easily support mercury readings of at least the lower 80s in the
valleys and across the lake plains each afternoon... While overnight
lows will be in the 60s. These values will be a solid 5 degrees above
normal levels.

In regards to precipitation... A warm front is forecast to push to the
north across the region late Monday night or Tuesday. While this could
generate scattered showers and thunderstorms... A higher chance for
precipitation will come Tuesday night into Wednesday when the
associated cold front will slowly cross the region. Given the lack of
strong continuity and model to model consistency... Will refrain from
going higher than chc pops.

High pressure is then forecast to build across the region later
Wednesday into Thursday. This will encourage the return of fair
weather along with more comfortable humidity levels.

Aviation 03z Friday through Tuesday
The vast majority of the cloud cover has cleared the area and
shower activity has moved out with it. Just some scattered
clouds remain over western new york, and those will fade. Light
winds will promote valley fog around jhw overnight, which will
dissipate after sunrise. Cold air aloft will promote efficient
cumulus development on Friday, however the majority of it should
beVFR.

Outlook...

Friday through Monday... MainlyVFR with nothing more than southern
tier valley fog producing local ifr conditions each late night and
morning.

Tuesday... MVFR possible with showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
Near SCA conditions will continue to weaken overnight. Another
round north-northeast winds could result in another period of
choppy conditions late Friday night into Saturday on lake
ontario, but again it looks like conditions stay below small
craft advisory criteria. Winds and waves will diminish later
Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Zaff
near term... Fries zaff
short term... Rsh
long term... Ar jla
aviation... Zaff
marine... Jla zaff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 14 mi54 min W 18 G 21 71°F 1013.9 hPa59°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 33 mi66 min WNW 16 G 18 72°F 73°F3 ft1013.5 hPa (+1.0)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 42 mi36 min WNW 12 G 14 71°F 71°F1014.2 hPa57°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 47 mi66 min WSW 6 G 7 68°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 49 mi54 min 63°F 1014.1 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY17 mi2.2 hrsN 010.00 miFair60°F54°F80%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S3S7SW3SW6W5W5W7W7W7W9W6W8W13W10NW10NW7W8W6W7CalmCalmSW3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalm3SE3E333W9NW6NW3S3SW3Calm3W4W5W74NW5CalmCalmCalmCalm3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3SW4W6W53CalmCalmS5CalmCalmCalmSE34

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.