Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Olcott, NY

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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:37AMSunset 4:41PM Saturday December 14, 2019 1:16 PM EST (18:16 UTC) Moonrise 7:12PMMoonset 9:54AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 642 Am Est Sat Dec 14 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm est this afternoon through Sunday evening...
Today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Rain through early afternoon, then rain and snow late. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds to 30 knots becoming west. Snow and rain showers in the evening, then a chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 5 to 8 feet building to 8 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Sunday..West winds to 30 knots. A chance of snow showers in the morning. Waves 8 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest and diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers in the evening. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast. A chance of snow during the day, then snow with rain likely Monday night. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers during the day, then a chance of snow showers Tuesday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
LOZ042 Expires:201912141615;;767738 FZUS51 KBUF 141142 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 642 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ042-141615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Olcott, NY
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location: 43.33, -78.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 141802 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 102 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

SYNOPSIS. A complex area of low pressure will move northward just inland from the east coast through tonight. Widespread rain will change to accumulating wet snow from west to east this afternoon and evening. The snow will taper off later tonight and Sunday, with lingering lake effect snow showers east of the lakes. There will be a brief break Sunday afternoon through most of Monday before the next area of low pressure moves just south the region with snow and a wintry mix Monday night through Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. . Accumulating Wet Snow This Afternoon and Tonight .

The rain has already changed to wet snow across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier, and is in the process of changing to wet snow in the Buffalo area. The transition to wet snow will accelerate northeast through the afternoon.

Water vapor imagery showing an impressive mid level trough moving NNE out of West Virginia. This feature will phase with a northern stream trough moving into the western Great Lakes, with the resulting trough becoming negatively tilted as it crosses the eastern Great Lakes this evening. At the surface, a broad, complex low with several circulation centers will consolidate into one low by late today, with the resulting low rapidly deepening as it takes an inland track across western New England and into eastern Quebec.

Strong forcing will be found to the west of the deepening low, supported by DPVA ahead of the strong trough, and a coupled upper level jet structure and associated strong upper level divergence. This system has abundant deep moisture with it, as a plume of Gulf of Mexico moisture was captured as it moved through the southeast states. The strong upper level forcing will interact cooperatively with rapidly strengthening frontogenesis and stretching deformation to the west of the low track as low/mid level thermal fields tighten in response to the deepening mid level trough and surface low. The strong forcing will support a 8-12 hour period of strong, deep layer ascent as the comma head of the deepening cyclone moves across our region from west to east.

While the forcing is clear, the change to snow and resulting accumulations remains a difficult forecast given the very marginal thermal structure during the peak of the event. Point soundings show a saturated isothermal column just below freezing through the lowest 8K feet later this afternoon and evening. Surface temperatures will only drop to at or just above freezing at lower elevations, with the higher terrain possibly dropping to a degree or two below freezing by this evening (and later tonight east of Lake Ontario). The relatively warm column and very marginal surface temperatures will yield very poor snow:water ratios through the time when the greatest QPF occurs. Snow:water ratios will likely average 8:1 through the bulk of the event, probably a little better across higher terrain where surface temperatures are slightly cooler. Later tonight the ratios will improve, but by this time the bulk of the synoptic snow will be over.

Given the above expectations, expect accumulations of 6-12 inches in the Winter Storm Warning area to the east of Lake Erie. The higher accumulations will be elevation dependent in this area, with the higher end of the range likely confined to the hills, with less in the valleys and much less along the Lake Erie shore including the NY Thruway corridor. Farther north and east, expect 3-5 inches on average for the Niagara Frontier, Genesee Valley, and western Finger Lakes. There will be some elevation dependency in this area as well, with greater accumulations inland from the lakes and less near the lakeshores where surface temperatures will stay slightly warmer.

East of Lake Ontario, this event will be over a longer duration given that some of the snow will be from lake enhanced upslope flow Sunday morning following the main synoptic event tonight. Expect 3-5 inches across the lower elevations (less near Lake Ontario), and 5-9 inches across the Tug Hill Plateau. The higher accumulations will be limited to a small portion of the Tug Hill region where elevation is the highest. We will continue to monitor this area for a possible upgrade, but given the snow will fall over a longer period of time and the higher amounts will be isolated to the top of the Tug Hill, an advisory still seems reasonable.

The steady snow will quickly taper off from west to east through the middle of the night tonight, with westerly upslope flow allowing the snow to last a little longer across the higher terrain east of the lakes.

Finally, it will turn quite windy tonight as the surface low continues to deepen across eastern Quebec. Expect gusts of 30-40 mph across much of the region, highest on the lake plains of Lake Ontario. The snow will be quite wet and sticky given the marginal temperatures through this evening, so blowing snow will not be much of an issue at first. Some blowing snow will develop later tonight through Sunday in open areas once temperatures turn colder and the snowfall becomes drier.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Sunday a surface low will continue to rapidly deepen over the Saint Lawrence River as it heads towards Labrador Canada. This surface low will continue to draw much colder air southward across our region, while a tight pressure gradient brings a windy day across the region.

Snow, both orographic upslope and lake effect now will be concentrated towards the higher terrain of our CWA, with around an inch additional accumulation over the hills of SW NYS, and still several inches of snow on the Tug Hill. We will carry a winter weather advisory for snow east of Lake Ontario through 18Z, to account for both falling snow and also strong wind gusts that could near 45 mph. Blowing snow will likely be held at bay due to surface temperatures right around the freezing mark. Elsewhere across WNY, early day wind gusts and snow showers will diminish through the afternoon and overnight as surface high brings a relaxing pressure gradient and drier air to end remaining scattered lake effect snow showers.

There will likely remain decent lower level moisture SE of Lake Ontario Sunday night, that with Lake Induced Equilibrium levels still around 5-6K feet and an aligned NW flow, a narrow band of lake effect snow is likely, mainly across Wayne, Cayuga and Oswego counties. Moisture is not the greatest within the snow dendritic growth zone, and the short period of the band will hold back on overall snow totals here.

As the surface high crosses our region later Sunday night, increased dry air and wind shear will end lake snows SE of Lake Ontario, while bringing the entire region a brief break from the winter weather. This surface high will slide towards New England Monday, and on its heals will be isentropic lift precipitation that will expand eastward across our region Monday. Aiding in synoptic lift will be the influence of the right entrance region of a 150kt upper level jet.

This precipitation, forming ahead of a surface low over the Ohio Valley is likely to become a wintry mix on the southern flank . with possible sleet and freezing rain across our Southern Tier. The consensus track of the low pressure is across Pennsylvania, and this will keep much of our region cold enough for snow. However a LLJ will bring the nose of warmer air aloft to just across the state line Monday afternoon and evening . with possible wintry mix.

Monday night any wintry mix will change back to plain snow showers as the surface low tracks towards southern New England. Depending upon the placement of the warm air aloft, there could be moderate accumulations of snow across our region . to the north of the Southern Tier and within a deformation zone that develops across New York State Monday night and into early Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Low pressure will strengthen as it reaches the Canadian maritimes which will establish a cold northwesterly flow across our region. 850 mb temperatures will drop to around -20C which is plenty cold enough to support lake effect snow into mid-week. The amount of moisture will depend on how developed the mid level low and there lies some model disagreement. There will be at least some lake response Tuesday night and Wednesday which may linger into Wednesday night.

A trough approaching the area Tuesday night will track east across the region through Thursday morning. A weak surface low will generate some light snow showers for most of the area Tuesday night before a cold front crosses the region. Cold air advection behind the passing cold front will cause 850H temperatures to cool to -20C by Wednesday afternoon/evening, with areas northeast of Lake Ontario approaching -25C Wednesday night.

With these cooling temperatures, lake responses off of both lakes will be possible for Wednesday into early Thursday. Increased ridging and weak warm air advection, along with less synoptic moisture on Thursday will start to cause the lake response to diminish through the morning as equilibrium heights will lower. A weak stalled frontal system across Lake Ontario extending into the North Country may cause some snow showers on the Friday, but model agreement is lacking that far out.

Temperatures will cool on Wednesday to the low to mid 20s across the area. Temps will rebound some to the upper 20s to around 30 for Thursday and Friday, except east of Lake Ontario where is will stay in the low 20s due to a potentially stalled weak frontal system.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Widespread rain will spread east into the eastern Lake Ontario region through mid afternoon. The rain will transition very rapidly to wet snow from southwest to northeast across the area during the afternoon and early evening. Steady snow will then taper off from west to east overnight, to be replaced by more localized, limited lake effect snow showers east of the lakes.

Widespread IFR CIGS will continue through this evening as low stratus dominates the entire area. VSBY is a mix of mainly MVFR and IFR early this afternoon with some areas of light fog. VSBY will become more widespread IFR once the rain transitions to snow. Widespread IFR VSBY this evening will become more limited to just the lake effect snow areas east of the lakes later tonight and Sunday morning.

CIGS/VSBY should remain just above airfield minimums for most of this event. KBUF and KROC may briefly drop down to 1/2 mile in moderate snow during the late afternoon and early evening, but an extended period of less than 1/2 mile VSBY does not look likely given the marginal temperatures and wet snow. KJHW has a better chance of dropping below minimums this afternoon through this evening with heavier snow at that airfield.

Outlook . Monday . VFR deteriorating to IFR Monday night with snow developing. A wintry mix possible near the PA state line. Tuesday . IFR in snow in the morning, improving to mainly VFR. Wednesday and Thursday . A chance of IFR in lake effect snow east of the lakes, with VFR elsewhere.

MARINE. A deepening low moving northward along the east coast this afternoon will take an inland track across eastern NY this evening before reaching eastern Quebec by Sunday morning, becoming a very strong low on the way. Westerly winds will rapidly increase in its wake tonight, with gale force winds on Lake Ontario. Westerly gales will continue through Sunday before starting to diminish Sunday night. A gale warning has been issued for most of Lake Ontario. Winds will not be quite as strong on Lake Erie farther removed from the strong low. Sustained winds will likely peak around 30 knots on Lake Erie.

Winds will diminish Sunday night as the pressure gradient relaxes across the eastern Great Lakes.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. West gales will develop on Lake Ontario tonight through Sunday. The strong west winds will produce significant wave action on the east half of the lake, and combine with high lake levels to increase the risk of lakeshore flooding. Wind direction is expected to be nearly due west for the duration of the strong winds, which will drive the higher risk of Lakeshore flooding to areas from about Fair Haven eastward where the shoreline is more perpendicular to a west wind. Farther west along the south shore of Lake Ontario, winds will be parallel to the shoreline.

On Lake Erie, winds will be lighter, in the 25-30 knot range. The wind direction is also due west, which is not quite aligned with the long axis of the lake and less favorable for a seiche. With this in mind, just expect a minor rise at the east end of Lake Erie.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for NYZ012-019-020- 085. Lakeshore Flood Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Sunday for NYZ005>007. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for NYZ006>008. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NYZ001>003-010-011-013-014-021. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Sunday for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST Sunday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Sunday for LOZ030. Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Sunday for LOZ043>045-062>065. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST Sunday night for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for SLZ022-024.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock NEAR TERM . Hitchcock SHORT TERM . Thomas LONG TERM . HSK/SW AVIATION . Hitchcock MARINE . Hitchcock TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 1 mi16 min NNW 19 G 22 38°F 994.9 hPa (-4.4)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 24 mi52 min 35°F 995.5 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 33 mi46 min NNW 14 G 17 35°F 37°F994.9 hPa30°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 48 mi52 min 35°F 995 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY20 mi23 minNNW 12 miRain35°F34°F96%995.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIAG

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S8S4S5S4E3E4CalmCalmNE4E4E5NE5NE3NE4N4NE7NE7N7N9N8N11NW13NW12
1 day agoS10S7S6SE5E3E8E5E4S8S11S12S12S15S13S12S13S9S9S11S12S10S13S10S9
2 days agoW19
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.