Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Olcott, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 8:03PM Sunday August 25, 2019 12:45 AM EDT (04:45 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 3:27PM Illumination 29% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 731 Pm Edt Sat Aug 24 2019
Tonight..East winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers during the day, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Tuesday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ042 Expires:201908250300;;157466 FZUS51 KBUF 242333 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 731 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ042-250300-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Olcott, NY
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location: 43.33, -78.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 250252
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1052 pm edt Sat aug 24 2019

Synopsis
High pressure across southern canada will expand across the great
lakes region through Sunday, and slowly move off new england on
Monday. There will be some clouds and patchy valley fog each
morning, but otherwise this high will provide a dry pattern which
will last through Monday night. The next chance of rain along with
warmer weather won't return until next Tuesday or Wednesday.

Near term through Sunday
Ir satellite imagery this late evening displays clouds clearing
across wny, with just a batch of clouds across inland areas of
the higher terrain. We'll still have the light northeast flow
through the night and lingering moisture around 5k may aid in
these clouds remaining with us through the night... Or even
spreading. Fog will develop in the southern tier river valleys
where the clouds to dissipate.

A few outliers last night east of lake ontario dipped into the upper
30s, and while this will again be possible tonight, most other areas
should be in the 40s (inland) to low 50s (lake plains).

Sunday should feature another day with mixed Sun and clouds, but
with the low level flow aloft becoming more ese, a little less cloud
cover is expected without a lake contribution. However, that strong
inversion will still be in place, and with another day of abundant
insolation from a dry airmass aloft without any cirrus, expect at
least partly cloudy skies for much of the afternoon, although the
immediate shorelines will be a battle ground between lake breezes
and the ese flow aloft. At least it should be sunny over the lakes.

By the end of the day, some cirrus should start to move in from the
sw, but it should be rather thin.

Meanwhile, temperatures aloft have bottomed out, and will be on the
rise for the next 24hrs (and into next week). Thus expect afternoon
temperatures to be about 10f higher than persistence - generally in
the mid to upper 70s.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday night
High pressure will remain nearly stationary across northern new
england and the canadian maritimes into early next week. A mid-level
ridge will build across the region Sunday night and Monday
maintaining dry conditions across the region. The ridge flattens out
Monday night and moisture increases ahead of an approaching cold
front across the ohio valley. The surface high will be anchored
across new england during this time and continue with dry conditions
across the region.

There will be hesitation as the high departs Tuesday and while the
front nears. An initial warm front will bring a few stray showers
near lake ontario Tuesday, and a stray lake breeze shower t-storm
may develop across the southern tier. Otherwise Tuesday will be dry
with a slight uptick in humidity. The main cold front will be on the
doorstep of western ny by Wednesday morning. The 12z GFS slowed the
progression of the front and since the low is occluding to the
northwest, cut back the chance for showers and any thunderstorms
Tuesday night until late in the night.

Temperatures will slowly climb Monday and Tuesday as warm air
advection and a southeast flow increases across western and north
central ny. High temperatures will be in the upper 70's to low 80's
both days however Tuesday will feel more humid with dewpoints
climbing into the mid 60's. Low temperatures will also climb with
upper 50's Sunday night and Monday night and the low to mid 60's
Tuesday night.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
Models have come into better agreement with a cold front passing
across the region Wednesday, this as a tropical system and its
associated upstream ridge move farther out to sea. Instability along
the front is marginal for thunder, while a high pwat content to the
airmass (pwats near 1.75 inches) and a deepening warm cloud layer
may encourage heavy downpours.

Behind this front a cooler airmass will flow over the region. Under
an upper level trough, steep mid level lapse rates and lingering
moisture will allow skies to become mostly cloudy through the
afternoon. As the cold air deepens, with 850 hpa temperatures
falling into the upper single digits celsius there may be some lake
enhanced rain showers later Wednesday night and through Thursday
night. Will have low chance pops near the lakes for this activity,
as it may not be cold enough unstable enough to encourage a more
widespread lake effect rain event.

Another weak cold front will cross our region Friday night. Better
lift will be found along lake ontario and points eastward. This will
return a chance for rain showers to close out the week.

Temperatures will not stray much from normal... With highs in the 70s
and lows in the mid to upper 50s through this period.

Aviation 03z Sunday through Thursday
Vfr flight conditions will be dominate across the TAF region with
the 00z TAF package. Under high pressure in the lower levels, there
will be valley fog across the southern tier, but the drier airmass
should keep much of this fog from spilling out of the valley.

Tomorrow will beVFR with light winds and just some inland cumulus
forming through the day.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday... MainlyVFR with nothing more than southern
tier valley fog producing local ifr conditions.

Monday night and Tuesday... MainlyVFR.

Tuesday night through Thursday...VFR with some short periods of MVFR
from showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
Relatively light and variable winds with corresponding light wave
action are expected into Monday as surface high pressure moves
slowly east across the region.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Apffel zaff
near term... Thomas zaff
short term... Hsk thomas
long term... Thomas
aviation... Thomas
marine... Zaff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 1 mi46 min E 4.1 G 5.1 64°F 1026.8 hPa (+0.7)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 24 mi46 min 62°F 1026 hPa (+0.4)
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 33 mi46 min E 6 G 8.9 63°F 75°F1025.9 hPa (+0.3)45°F
45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax 34 mi46 min ESE 7.8 G 9.7 68°F 69°F1025.8 hPa (+0.7)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 48 mi46 min 61°F 1025.2 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY20 mi53 minNE 310.00 miFair58°F52°F81%1025.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIAG

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3N4N4NE4N5NE5NE5NE5NE7NE9N6E4N8N10
G16
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E8NE7NE9E10E3E3E5E3NE3
1 day agoN5N3N5N4N4CalmCalmN3N8N5N7N10N10N9
G17
N8N8N10N8N6N4N6N6N5N4
2 days agoW8W8N9NW5NW7NW7W6W4NW7NW6NW6NW7W10NW11NW10NW10NW7NW9NW7W5W4W4N6N7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.