Saturday, April4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Olcott, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 7:46PM Saturday April 4, 2020 11:05 PM EDT (03:05 UTC) Moonrise 2:30PMMoonset 4:16AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 1036 Am Edt Sat Apr 4 2020
Rest of today..Northwest winds less than 10 knots becoming northeast. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..East winds less than 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. A chance of showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
LOZ042 Expires:202004042115;;561387 FZUS51 KBUF 041436 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1036 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ042-042115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Olcott, NY
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location: 43.33, -78.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 050240 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1040 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak cold front will cross the region late tonight and early Sunday with nothing more than a brief shower or two. High pressure will then build across the forecast area Sunday night and Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. Surface high pressure and mid level ridging across the region will slowly sliding east early tonight, making way for a cold front and band of showers now across eastern Michigan. The cold front and associated band of showers will push into western New York late tonight. Expect that the coverage of showers will wane as they approach the region as the parent shortwave will shear northward with time and forcing will weaken. Therefore, probably looking at just a few stray showers reaching western New York before morning. Between the clouds and a light, but steady southwest flow ahead of the front, low temperatures tonight should remain in the upper 30s North Country to lower 40s elsewhere.

The cold front will continue to pass through the area Sunday morning with a few showers, primarily for areas east of the Genesee Valley, with better coverage expected east of Lake Ontario. High pressure will build into the region behind the front Sunday afternoon with any remaining showers ending as cloud gradually thin, with some limited sunshine possible late in the day.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Heading into the area from the northwestern Great Lakes, surface high pressure will settle in over the eastern Great Lakes Sunday night and Monday, which will create a brief period of dry and quiet weather. Region wide temperatures will fall to at or above freezing with lows ranging in the 30s. Temperatures will then rise up into the mid and upper 50s, some near 60 in WNY. However, areas to the east of Lake Ontario will stay on the cooler side with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s as a cooler air mass will be above this area. 850mb model guidances are showing temperatures of -1 to -2 degrees Celsius.

The surface high will slowly exit east and southeast Monday night, allowing for a weak shortwave disturbance in the low levels to track southeast over the Great Lakes from the northwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, the best forcing to produce precipitation appears to occur along the warm frontal boundary, which will be located to our south in the Ohio Valley and Pennsylvania. However, can't rule out the slight chance for some rain showers in the far Western Souther Tier for overnight into Tuesday as this feature pushes east.

Aside from the chances for showers in the Western Southern Tier on Tuesday, moderate warm air advection will occur across the region as we will be under an predominately southwesterly flow regime. Highs on Tuesday will reach the upper 50s and low 60s across much of the region.

Another shortwave disturbance will produce a weak warm front and surface low that will track east across the Great Lakes on Tuesday night which will increase the chances for showers across the region as the feature passes.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The continual waves of disturbances look to die down as the upper level ridge will be pushed east by a trough over the Canadian Plains. The trough and its associated will start to dig east on Wednesday and will make its impact to our region on Thursday. Before this feature plays its toll, an abundance of warm air will be advected into the region as hinted by the +7/+8 degrees Celsius temperatures in the lower levels at 850mb, causing high temperatures on Wednesday to rise back up into the upper 50s and low 60s.

The aforementioned trough and associated surface low will continue its track east across Canada. As the low approaches, it will drag its sharp cold front through the region on Thursday. While there still remains some uncertainty regarding the timing and placement of this feature in the model guidances, it does appear that there will be a bit of a lull in precipitation late on Thursday. Temperatures will drop behind the front with the new inherited cold air mass over the region which will make it possible to have a few wet snowflakes in the higher terrain.

Heading into Friday, the cold temperatures will remain across the region. The surface low pressure system will be to our east allowing for wrap around moisture on the backside of the low to be in our region. This combined with the cyclonic flow will produce the next chances of showers across the region. Some showers may even be lake enhanced as low level temperatures are favorable, and with the colder air mass dominating the region accumulating snows are possible, especially in the higher terrain. Lake showers look to diminish throughout the day on Saturday.

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. VFR conditions will be found throughout western and north central New York through at least 08z. A weak cold front will then cross our region late tonight and early Sunday. Increasing clouds ahead and along this front will gradually allow cigs to lower to MVFR levels.

As high pressure over the Upper Great Lakes approaches during the second half of Sunday . cigs will then improve to VFR levels.

Outlook .

Sunday night and Monday . VFR. Tuesday and Wednesday . Mainly VFR with a chance of showers. Thursday . VFR/MVFR with showers likely.

MARINE. High pressure nosing across the Lower Great Lakes from the northern reaches of Quebec will maintain a weak surface pressure gradient over the region this evening.

A weak cold front will cross the Lower Great Lakes late tonight and early Sunday. While winds will freshen a bit on Lake Erie in advance of the front tonight, and on Lake Ontario in its wake on Sunday, conditions will remain below small craft advisory criteria.

Light winds and negligible waves can then be anticipated Sunday night and Monday, as the next area of high pressure crosses the region.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . RSH NEAR TERM . TMA SHORT TERM . EAJ LONG TERM . EAJ AVIATION . RSH MARINE . RSH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 1 mi66 min SSE 5.1 G 6 46°F 1017.6 hPa (-0.0)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 24 mi54 min 45°F 1016.7 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 33 mi48 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 42°F 48°F1017.1 hPa32°F
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 44 mi66 min W 3.9 G 5.8 43°F 40°F1016.7 hPa (+1.0)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 48 mi54 min 1016.5 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY20 mi13 minN 010.00 miFair43°F37°F82%1017.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIAG

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4N6N6N5NW3NW5NW4W3W3NW5W4W3NW3CalmW6W6SW5N5N6CalmNW5SE3S6Calm
1 day agoNW11NW9N10N8N8NW7NW10NW9NW12N12N14NW13
G16
NW8NW9NW8NW10NW7NW7N6N6N3N4N3Calm
2 days agoW7W6W8W9NW8NW7NW6W7NW7N9N9N11N12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.