Wednesday, October16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Olcott, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 6:32PM Wednesday October 16, 2019 7:53 AM EDT (11:53 UTC) Moonrise 7:19PMMoonset 9:02AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 628 Am Edt Wed Oct 16 2019
Today..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely early, then rain from late morning on. A slight chance of Thunderstorms through early afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Showers likely in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west and diminishing to less than 10 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers Sunday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
LOZ042 Expires:201910161500;;789632 FZUS51 KBUF 161028 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 628 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ042-161500-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Olcott, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.33, -78.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbuf 161016
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
616 am edt Wed oct 16 2019

Synopsis
A strong cold front will cross the area today... Bringing breezy to
windy conditions... Widespread rain... And possibly a few embedded
thunderstorms. In its wake... Much cooler air will overspread the
region and promote lake enhanced rain showers downwind of lakes
erie and ontario from late this afternoon through Thursday. Dry
weather will then return on Friday as high pressure builds eastward
from the central great lakes... With fair and increasingly milder
weather then following for the weekend as the high slides further
eastward and off the atlantic coastline.

Near term through tonight
During the course of today an impressive closed low over lower
michigan will slowly push eastward to southern ontario... While its
surrounding larger-scale upper level trough becomes negatively
tilted over time. At the surface... Its attendant surface low will
track along a similar path... While slowly pivoting its trailing
cold front eastward and across most of our area... With this
boundary reaching the north country by the end of the day.

Out ahead of the front a swath of deeper moisture (pwats of 1-1.25
inches) will be advected northward into our region by a developing
50-60 knot low level jet... With this moisture field then being
strongly lifted by a combination of low level convergence along
the front... Strong height falls DCVA along the front flank of the
closed low upper level trough... And a broadly diffluent upper level
flow that will be further enhanced by a pair of upper level jet
streaks. As a result we can expect a plume of widespread moderate
to locally heavier rain to develop and push eastward across our
region in tandem with the slow-moving front... For which high-end
categorical pops remain in play in the forecast. This said... Have
slowed down the arrival of these a little from continuity given
upstream radar trends over the last few hours and the 00z guidance...

both of which argue for a slightly slower arrival of the steadier
rain. Given the favorable dynamics and the presence of some very
weak elevated instability through early this afternoon... There may
also be an isolated thunderstorm or two from roughly the finger
lakes westward... Though the areal coverage of these should remain
rather sparse.

It will also be breezy to windy out ahead of the front and its
advancing swath of rain today... Particularly across the finger
lakes and north country where stronger southerly winds aloft should
at least partially mix down across the the higher terrain... And
downsloping should also help to enhance the flow across the lower
elevations. This should lead to a period of fairly widespread
35 to 45 mph gusts across these two regions... With some isolated
gusts to 50 mph or so not out of the question.

In the wake of the frontal passage... Steady cold air advection
and increasing wraparound moisture attendant to the closed upper
low will initially lead to the development of some lake-enhanced
rain showers east and northeast of lake erie later this afternoon...

while the remainder of the region west of the genesee valley
should see the steadier rain temporarily diminish to some scattered
showers. Meanwhile further east across the finger lakes and north
country... The steadier rains will continue through the end of the
day as the cold front continues to slowly make its way eastward.

Tonight... Strong height falls DCVA along the front flank of the
advancing closed low upper trough will drive the development of
strong secondary cyclogenesis along the atlantic coastline...

with the resulting nor'easter explosively deepening as it tracks
from offshore of new jersey into southern new england. Meanwhile
the initial primary low will devolve into a remnant inverted trough
as its energy transfers to its rapidly strengthening coastal
counterpart... With the axis of this trough slowly pivoting across
the north country over time.

Out ahead of this trough axis... Steady moderate to locally
heavy rainfall will continue across much of the north country
and adjoining portions of the saint lawrence valley through the
at least the first half of the night... Before turning lighter
overnight. Meanwhile further to the west showers will generally
be more scattered through the first half of the night... Save
for areas east and southeast of lake erie where better wraparound
moisture and a gradually veering low level flow will continue to
generate fairly numerous to widespread lake and orographically-
enhanced rain showers. The showers will then gradually become
more numerous to widespread across the rest of the area overnight
as the core of the upper low passes directly overhead... Wraparound
moisture consequently becomes more widespread... And the low level
flow veers more northwesterly.

With respect to rainfall amounts... Projected basin-average totals
through tonight generally range from a half inch to an inch across
much of the area. This said... Locally higher amounts of an inch to
an inch and a half will be possible across chautauqua county... With
totals of as much as 2-2.25" possible across portions of lewis county...

which will remain under the influence of the steadier rains the longest.

Given the limited areal coverage of the latter... The dry antecedent
conditions of the past week... And the extended 15-18 hour duration
of the steadier rainfall... At this point would not expect this to
cause significant hydrologic concerns however.

Finally with respect to temperatures... Highs today will range
from the mid to upper 50s across the higher terrain of the southern
tier and north country to the lower to mid 60s across the bulk of
the lower elevations. Steady cold air advection following the frontal
passage will then induce falling temperatures across western new
york this afternoon... With readings then slipping into the 40s
tonight areawide.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
Models are in very good agreement with upper level pattern late this
week showing upper trough over the upper great lakes this morning
becoming fully absolved by developing nor'easter across northern new
england by midday Thursday. At the sfc, 997-1000mb low over northern
lower michigan early this morning tracks to the ottawa valley late
tonight while powerful low developing off the mid atlantic deepens
to 975-980mb by Thursday morning vcnty of new hampshire to southern
maine.

Resulting cool moist NW low-level flow across the lakes with delta
t S as high 18c (lake erie) and 16c (lake ontario), inversions
around 8kft and lake equilibrium levels 10-15kft continues to
justify categorical pops southeast of both lakes on Thursday.

Enhancing lift will also occur across over the higher terrain in the
southern tier. Think we will see an uptick in intensity and coverage
to the lake effect later Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon as
deeper moisture (h8-h5) wraps westward as upper low deepens toward
downeast maine. Looking at two main areas of higher qpf; one over
the higher terrain along the chautauqua ridge and the second
downstream of southeast and eastern lake ontario where lake effect
will be enhanced by effects on western fringe of nor'easter. No
matter where you are on Thursday in the forecast area, even if you
don't see much rain, it certainly won't be pleasant as temps
struggle to reach 50f and NW winds gust over 30 mph in many areas
with tight pressure gradient on western edge of the nor'easter.

Lake effect will remain more widespread early on Thursday evening as
little changes compared to the aftn. Then, after midnight should
start to see slow improvement as deep moisture departs and
inversions lower toward 5kft. Though coverage and intensity of the
lake effect will begin to wane, don't think we'll get rid of the
lake effect completely as it remains plenty cool enough at top of
inversion (h85-h8 temps around -3c) and there is sufficient moisture
below inversion. NW winds below inversion will also keep the added
lift going over higher terrain areas of southern tier. Only real
change to forecast was to keep at least lower chances for lake
effect through the night, especially over higher terrain of western
southern tier and toward southeast of lake ontario. May be a few
breaks in cloud cover but should stay mostly cloudy for majority of
the region. Therefore, temps will mainly stay above 40f, except in
the traditional cool spots along the ny pa line and east of lake
ontario.

Though inversions continue to fall with region becoming more
influenced by high pressure ridge moving in from the west, stubborn
nw flow beneath inversion may still support a few showers east of
lake ontario on Friday morning. Clouds will be slower to depart with
mostly cloudy skies sticking around over much of the forecast area
into Friday afternoon. The clouds and cooler temps aloft will keep
highs on Friday from reaching much beyond the lower 50s. Winds will
be quite a bit lighter than Thursday, so even though temps will be
similar, it certainly will not feel as raw. Hints emerging that low
clouds may try to hang around even into Friday night closer to lake
erie and lake ontario. For now, kept skies partly cloudy and raised
temps up toward nbm as it came in slightly warmer. Even so, could
still see at least patchy frost as we have lows dropping into the
mid and upper 30s for most part with around 30f east of lake
ontario. Please note that our frost freeze headlines are done for
the season in jefferson, lewis, cattaraugus, allegany and wyoming
counties, but continue until october 25th for of our remaining
counties.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Dry and quiet weather kicks off the long term with ridging aloft and
surface high pressure moving off the east coast Saturday. A return
flow is expected with temperatures climbing into the mid 50s east of
lake ontario to around 60f across western ny. With the exception of
a fast moving shortwave trough tracking across the central great
lakes Saturday night, mid to upper level ridging will be in place
through the weekend.

Warm air advection will move into the eastern great lakes on the
backside of a mid-level ridge Sunday and 850mb temperatures will
rise to around +8 c. Clouds will likely be around as moisture
extends south across the region from the passing shortwave trough to
the north. ECMWF remains stubbornly consistent that there will be
enough moisture for this system to bring some showers to especially
western ny in the morning. Though don't like to bet against the
ecmwf, especially when it is consistent, other guidance is not near
as bullish on pops. So, our pops will stay at slight chance for now
and we'll go with a mix of Sun and clouds with temperatures reaching
the mid 60s. If more sunshine occurs, temperatures could hit 70f.

The ridge will amplify off the east coast Monday while a closed low
moves into the mid-west and upper great lakes. A surge of moisture
from the south will move into the region Monday and showers are
likely by Monday night. Temperatures at 850mb will also soar into
the +10-12 c range and highs will be near 70f. A cold front will
likely move through the region Tuesday and showers and gusty winds
are possible. An isolated thunderstorm may be possible along the
front as well. Overnight lows will be in the 40s and 50s on Monday
night while highs on Tuesday should be held in check by clouds and
showers with mainly low to mid 60s expected. Still, these readings
are slightly above normal for mid october.

Aviation 10z Wednesday through Sunday
During the course of today a strong cold front will slowly push
eastward across our region... Accompanied by a period of widespread
rain and a deterioration in flight conditions to MVFR ifr (with the
greatest potential for ifr found across the higher terrain). Given
some very weak elevated instability a few embedded thunderstorms
will also be possible through early afternoon... Though the areal
coverage of these should remain rather sparse. Areas from the
finger lakes eastward to the north country will also see a period
of gusty winds out ahead of the front... With surface wind gusts
to 30-35 knots likely in the above areas.

Following the frontal passage... Much cooler air will overspread
the region and lead to lake enhanced rain showers downwind of
the lakes from later this afternoon on through tonight. Meanwhile
a general mix of MVFR to ifr conditions will continue to prevail...

with the worst conditions found east of lake ontario and also
across the higher terrain south of lake ontario.

Outlook...

Thursday... MVFR ifr with numerous to widespread showers Thursday
becoming much more scattered Thursday night.

Friday... MainlyVFR with a slight chance of a leftover shower east
of lake ontario.

Saturday and Sunday...VFR.

Marine
Low pressure will slowly push a strong cold front eastward across
the lower great lakes today. Out ahead of the front... A period of
brisk southerly winds can be expected across the eastern two-thirds
of lake ontario for much of today... While on lake erie initially
brisk southerlies will turn southwesterly and freshen a bit further
in the wake of the frontal passage.

Tonight winds across lake erie will veer to northwesterly while
strengthening further as cold advection increases in the wake of
the cold front... Then will remain rather brisk through Thursday
before diminishing Thursday night. Meanwhile a period of notably
weaker winds will affect lake ontario through much if not all of
tonight... Before brisk northwesterlies develop there on Thursday
and then continue through late Thursday night or early Friday.

Given all the above... Small craft advisories remain in effect for
lake erie from today through Thursday night. Meanwhile on lake
ontario... Given the expected lengthy break in the stronger winds
later today and tonight have elected to just continue with the
advisory for today for now... Though these will eventually need
to be added for the Thursday-Thursday night period as well.

Winds will finally diminish Friday and Saturday as high pressure
builds across the lower great lakes.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Friday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon
for loz043>045.

Synopsis... Jjr
near term... Jjr
short term... Jla
long term... Hsk jla
aviation... Jjr
marine... Jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 1 mi54 min S 7 G 15 57°F 1002 hPa (-3.4)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 24 mi54 min 60°F 1001.5 hPa (-3.5)
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 33 mi54 min SSE 9.9 G 23 61°F 61°F1001.5 hPa (-3.7)36°F
45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax 34 mi54 min ESE 12 G 16 57°F 59°F4 ft1001 hPa (-3.4)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby 44 mi114 min SSW 19 G 27 61°F 60°F2 ft1001.5 hPa (-3.5)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 48 mi54 min 61°F 1001.1 hPa (-3.6)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
Last
24hr
SE4
SE4
S5
S10
G13
S11
S10
G14
S4
W3
NW3
NE4
NE5
G9
NE7
NE10
G15
E8
G14
E7
G11
SE4
G7
SE4
SE6
G11
SE8
G11
SE11
G17
S12
G18
S12
G19
SE13
G21
SE10
G23
1 day
ago
W10
NW11
G14
NW9
W9
G12
W9
G12
W9
G12
W10
W12
G17
W16
W13
W13
W11
G14
W9
G12
NW11
NW9
G12
NW8
W7
W6
W11
NW10
NW10
NW8
N2
SE3
2 days
ago
S17
S16
S13
G18
S15
S11
G15
S10
S16
S15
S14
G20
S13
G16
S14
G17
S11
G15
S15
S15
G19
S17
G24
S21
G27
S18
G24
N7
G11
N5
E4
G7
NW9
NW7
G10
W11
W12
G15

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY20 mi61 minS 1210.00 miLight Rain58°F46°F65%1001.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIAG

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
Last 24hrCalmCalmS6S8S8S9
G18
S96SW6CalmNE6NE8E8E9E8E4SE6SE6SE5SE5SE5S11S12S12
1 day agoW11W10W10W8W9W10W9W12
G20
W12W10W11W8------W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS8S12S12S13S14
G24
S15
G19
S13
G19
SW12
G22
S12
G21
S13SW8S6S7S9S11S10NW16
G25
N5SE5N4CalmW7W6W11

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (7,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.