Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Olcott, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Canadian surface high pressure will bring a fresh light breeze across the region today with temperatures a good 25 to 30 degrees cooler than yesterday. Sunshine will temper the chill.

Freezing temperatures are possible east of Lake Ontario tonight with early evening radiational cooling conditions...but increasing clouds across WNY will slow overnight cooling.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Warm front lifts north into the region Thursday as low pressure moves northeast into the southern Great Lakes. The low will continue to move northeast into southern Ontario, eventually sending a cold front through the region during the day Friday. Sufficient instability will develop within the warm sector by mid to late Thursday afternoon supporting the development of showers and scattered thunderstorms, especially across western New York. Shear profiles improve courtesy of a 45 knot low level bringing at least a low risk for hail and wind threats into the evening.

The chance for showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue into Friday, as an upper level shortwave trough moves into the region along with the surface cold front extending from the low moving into eastern Canada. Instability and shear profiles not overly impressive, but some gusty thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon, especially across eastern portions of the area. Scattered showers will linger Friday night through Saturday night as the trough passes across the region.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Weak cyclonic flow will linger through Sunday, especially across the Northeast will support plenty of diurnal cumulus clouds. Upper level ridging will then build east across the Great Lakes region Monday and Tuesday, supporting a broad surface high and the likelihood for dry weather. However, there continues to remain hints of a cut off low to develop supporting Atlantic moisture to advect into the region, which would lead to a more pessimistic forecast.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
For the 06Z TAFS VFR flight conditions are found, with some lower ceiling heights noted near Lake Ontario and the North Country that are associated with a secondary cold front. Northwest flow may bring these clouds across portions of the TAF region this early morning
with bases largely VFR
though the higher terrain of the Southern Tier may experience lower MVFR ceiling heights.

Drier air associated with a surface high pressure crossing the TAF region combined with increasing mixing heights will end the lower ceiling heights with just a few diurnal cumulus through the afternoon hours. Winds will remain light and variable with the passing of the surface high.

Tonight mid and high level clouds will begin to thicken from west to east ahead of the next warm front (storm system) that will bring unsettled weather back to the TAF region after tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR/IFR with showers developing.
Chance of thunderstorms.
Friday.. MVFR/IFR with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms.
Saturday...Mainly VFR with scattered showers.
Sunday...VFR flight conditions.

MARINE
As surface high pressure builds across the Lower Great Lakes today northwest winds will gradually diminish, with wave heights relaxing through the afternoon hours. Light and variable winds this evening with the passing of the surface high.

Easterly winds Thursday will increase over the western waters of Lake Ontario, bringing a slight chop Thursday afternoon before winds veer to southerly and the greater wave heights drift into Canadian waters.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LOZ043>045.