Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Olcott, NY

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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 031523 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1123 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

SYNOPSIS. Unsettled weather will remain over the region through Tuesday night as weak disturbances pass through, while a tropical system rides up the coast. High pressure will build across the region late Wednesday with near normal temperatures and a dry weather pattern through the end of the work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Low pressure exits across eastern Quebec to the Canadian Maritimes this afternoon and evening with with winds continuing to diminish as pressure gradient weakens.

A weak frontal boundary over the central Great Lakes will slowly approach the region this afternoon. Daytime heating will leave a somewhat unstable environment and locally generated lake breeze boundaries will provide a focus for afternoon convection. It will be cooler and notably less humid today with highs in the upper 70s to around 80.

The frontal boundary will push closer to Western New York tonight along with a weak disurbance aloft which will result in showers becoming a bit more widespread. Meanwhile, tropical moisture will spread into eastern Pennsylvania with increasing chances for showers across central New York late tonight.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. A weak sfc low over the western end of Lake Erie on Tuesday morning will strengthen and move northeast as a shortwave trough rounds the base of the larger trough over the Central Great Lakes. As the area of low pressure tracks northeast it will follow along a weak stationary boundary draped across Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Increasing frontogenesis as the low strengthens will help increase shower coverage across WNY as the low tracks northeast on Tuesday. Tropical Storm Isaias will also track up the east coast and center over the NY/MA state line by Tuesday evening. The western swath of the heavier rain associated with Isaias may just clip the far eastern portion of Lewis County. For the areas between these two systems, there looks like there will be the potential for a lull on Tuesday afternoon, but guidance isn't in complete agreement, and timing of the lull if any will be dependent on timing of both systems. Temperatures on Tuesday will be in the upper 60s across the higher terrain and in the upper 70s to around 80 for the lower elevations.

As the remnants of Isaias and the low pressure over the Lakes tracks northeast, showers will slowly diminish in coverage later Tuesday night from west to east. Temperatures Tuesday night will be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

On Wednesday, some showers will still be possible from Rochester and the Genesee Valley eastward, but will taper off through the day from west to east as an area of high pressure moves toward the region from the mid-Mississippi Valley. Temperatures on Wednesday will be in the upper 60s across the higher terrain and in the the upper 70s across the lower terrain.

Wednesday night, will be quiet for most of the area, there is a slight chance for some rain showers off of the southeast end of Lake Ontario as cold air advection drops 850Ts to around 7C over the 25C lakes. The limiting factor will be the area of high pressure moving into the area, along with some drier air. But if there are any showers the above mentioned area would have the best chance as a west to west-northwest flow over Lake Ontario will increase the amount of fetch the cooler winds aloft have to work with. Wednesday night, temperatures will be in the low 50s across the higher terrain and in the upper 50s along the lake shores. Temperatures on Wednesday night will be the coolest in some areas since late June.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. This period will be mostly dry, with a warming trend as an area of high pressure settles over the area on Saturday. A weakening shortwave trough will cross the area and potentially cause some showers and a few thunderstorms from Friday afternoon into early Saturday, with the best chance for showers along the NY/PA state line. Temperatures will be coolest on Thursday with highs from around 70 across the higher terrain to near 80 for the lowers elevations. Day to day warming of around 3 degrees will end this period with highs on Sunday in the upper 70s across the higher terrain and in the upper 80s for the lower elevations.

AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Patchy MVFR cigs, though most locations will stay low-end VFR. Not much in way of showers currently, but with daytime heating and an approaching frontal boundary, expect scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm mid to late afternoon, with best chance at ROC. Scattered showers will linger into the evening hours and may expand for a time (with BUF and IAG seeing more potential) with the approach of a mid-level trough and the frontal boundary. Mainly VFR flight conditions outside of these showers and storms which will be localized. A period of steadier showers may move in late tonight with a mix of VFR/MVFR flight conditions.

Outlook .

Tuesday . MVFR/VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday . VFR, but showers possible east of Lake Ontario. Thursday through Saturday . VFR.

MARINE. Low pressure over eastern Quebec and an associated cold front will exit across the Canadian Maritmes into this evening allowing winds and waves to diminish. Once winds diminish this afternoon, expect negligible winds and waves through Tuesday afternoon before a cold front crosses the lower Great Lakes Tuesday night helping to freshen winds from the northwest, especially on Lake Ontario. It is possible another round of Small Craft Advisories may be needed Tuesday night on Lake Ontario, mainly east of Hamlin Beach over the southeast and eastern sections of Lake Ontario.

Waterspouts will be possible behind the cold front Tuesday night into Thursday with lowering temperatures aloft. Looks like the period for best waterspout potential would be later Wednesday into Thursday morning with cold temps aloft and winds becoming light enough to favor developing low-level convergence zones where waterspouts typically form.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel NEAR TERM . Apffel/JLA SHORT TERM . SW LONG TERM . SW AVIATION . Apffel/JLA MARINE . JLA

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY	1 mi	33 min	NE 8 G 8.9	70°F			1016.6 hPa
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY	24 mi	45 min		77°F			1016.1 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY	33 mi	45 min	WNW 2.9 G 4.1	75°F	78°F		1016.3 hPa	47°F
45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax	34 mi	33 min	SE 5.8 G 7.8	69°F	71°F	1 ft	1015.4 hPa (-0.4)
45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby	44 mi	93 min	ENE 7.8 G 7.8	66°F	65°F		1014.8 hPa (-1.1)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY	48 mi	45 min		75°F			1015.8 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY

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SW25

SW21 G29

SW24 G29

SW18 G24

SW27 G34

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SW31 G38

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SW26 G34

W26 G32

W23 G29

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W12 G16

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SW19 G23

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N10 G13

NE8 G14

NE10 G16

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SE4 G7

SW3 G6

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY	20 mi	40 min	SW 7	10.00 mi	A Few Clouds	80°F	61°F	52%	1015.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIAG

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)

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S15 G24

SW23 G30

SW23 G33

SW21 G26

SW28 G37

SW25 G39

SW24 G32

SW18 G27

W15 G23

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W11 G19

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E6 G16

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SW16 G23

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (14,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY

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