Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Olcott, NY

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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 121149 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 649 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. An area of high pressure will pass by just to our south today, ending light lake effect snow to the east of Lake Ontario and also allowing for some breaks of sunshine. This surface high pressure will continue fair weather Friday before a storm system moves northward along the east coast, and spreads rain and mild temperatures across our region Friday night and Saturday. Cold air will return Sunday, with now snow and lake effect snow showers across the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. This morning a surface high pressure is centered over western Pennsylvania. This feature is bringing a wealth of dry air in the mid levels across our region, and has reduced the lake effect snow to the east of Lake Erie to mainly just flurries . while regional observations and webcams as well as GOES satellite imagery depict a band of snow to the east of Lake Ontario.

For this morning surface winds will back and become southwesterly through the morning hours. This will send Lake Erie flurries/lake effect clouds . and Lake Ontario snow showers northward. A few flurries are possible around Buffalo this morning. As lake induced equilibrium levels fall and drier air filters into the band of lake snow . the band of snow will weaken further through the morning hours. Another inch or so of snow is possible this morning east of Lake Ontario.

Outside of the lake clouds there will be a fair amount of sunshine across the region this morning. By afternoon we will start to see mid and high level clouds increase from the west, this activity is associated with an increase in moisture along a warm front of a western Great Lakes storm system. These clouds will be thickest near Lake Ontario and points eastward this afternoon and evening. The surface high pressure to our southeast will promote a dry afternoon for the region (outside of diminishing lake snow), maintaining any precipitation with this western warm front well to our west and north. While we will be under warm air advection aloft through the day, we will not see a big increase in surface temperatures. Highs today will rise to near the freezing mark across WNY, and upper 20s east of Lake Ontario.

Tonight quiet weather will continue, with a southerly flow behind the recently departed surface high maintaining a milder night than this current morning. Temperatures will drop 5-8 degrees from their daytime highs . with lows in the mid to upper 20s. There could also be a decent amount of clearing tonight, especially south of Lake Ontario as the greater lift and moisture associated with this western Great Lakes storm system moves into Canada.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. 1040 mb high centered east of the Canadian Maritimes by Friday morning. This will allow for a very efficient southerly flow into western and north central New York during the day Friday. Warm air advection will help to push high temperatures into the lower to mid 40s with upper 30s over higher terrain. Dry air advection around the high gives high confidence in a dry forecast.

Models continuing to advertise a digging large scale trough across the eastern CONUS. The amplification of the trough will develop a surface low over the southeast U.S., which is then expected to deepen and move northeast into the Mid Atlantic region Friday night then along the eastern seaboard during the day Saturday. Plenty of moisture will be drawn into the area with this system. Leading edge of precipitation should push into the area from the southeast early Friday night, with some potential for a wintry mix at the onset, especially in the colder Southern Tier Valleys or interior sections of the North Country. This wintry mix, if it occurs at all, should be brief before the column warms enough for all rain for the remainder of Friday night. A widespread rain is expected to continue into Saturday. Rainfall amounts look to be from a half inch to three- quarts of an inch for the majority of the area, with some locally higher amounts possible.

Cold air advection begins to change the rain to snow late in the day Saturday, especially at higher elevations. The change over will continue Saturday night as the colder air deepens with the low pulling to the northeast of the area. There could be some minor accumulations across the higher terrain, but should be limited to no more than a couple of inches.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Sunday and Sunday night deep low pressure will push from the Lower Saint Lawrence Valley across Labrador and then out to sea . while high pressure over the Northern Plains states steadily builds east across the Great Lakes In between these two systems. a gradually weakening and drying westerly to west-northwesterly flow of colder air will persist across our region. The cold advection regime will result in morning highs in the mid to upper 30s Sunday giving way to slowly falling readings through the remainder of Sunday and Sunday night . when lows will settle into the teens across the North Country and the lower to mid 20s elsewhere Meanwhile. initially breezy to windy conditions on Sunday (worst along the eastern and southeastern shores of both lakes where winds could gust to 35-40 mph) will give way to progressively calmer conditions through Sunday night as the surface ridge builds into our region.

In terms of precipitation . even though the bulk of the synoptic precipitation will be over by the start of this period . ongoing upslope flow and deep moisture will still maintain numerous to widespread snow showers east/east-southeast of the lakes Sunday morning . with these then steadily diminishing Sunday afternoon and night as our airmass steadily dries out and inversion heights lower Similarly. much more scattered mixed rain and snow showers elsewhere on Sunday will also come to an end Sunday night. While it will indeed be breezy to windy on Sunday . have pulled the previous mention of blowing snow from the forecast as temperatures both at the surface and aloft suggest a wetter snow that will be more difficult to effectively blow around.

On Monday the surface ridge will slowly drift from New York State into New England. Apart from some dying widely scattered light snow showers/flurries southeast of Lake Ontario early on . this should result in a dry day . with partly sunny skies initially giving way to increasing clouds across western New York out ahead of the next system Meanwhile daytime highs should be a bit below average. with readings ranging from the upper 20s across the North Country to the lower to mid 30s elsewhere.

Monday night through Tuesday night the medium range guidance continues to exhibit significant discrepancies with the track of the next low pressure system. The latest GFS remains a northern outlier and tracks a deepening low directly across Lakes Erie and Ontario . which would favor a mixed precipitation event along followed by the potential for some gusty winds behind its trailing cold front . though at this point the low track appears to lie too close to our region to support a true high wind event. Meanwhile the GEM and ECMWF remain much farther south with the low track and support a potential for some snow across our region . with the extent of this potential dependent upon the exact track of the low. For now have continued to favor the more realistic- looking latter camp of models . with a general chance of snow and near to slightly below average temperatures indicated for this 36-hour period.

Following the passage of this next system . a colder west to west- northwesterly flow looks to follow for Wednesday . supporting highs back in the 20s again along with a chance of snow showers east and east-southeast of the lakes.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. VFR conditions are expected across all TAF locations today, although lake effect clouds and some snow showers/flurries will be found east of the lakes this morning with some brief periods of MVFR - mainly CIGS.

Weak lake effect east of lake Ontario will lift north this afternoon with some brief MVFR possible.

Outlook .

Tonight . VFR. Friday . VFR. Saturday . MVFR. Rain likely. Sunday . Areas of MVFR/IFR in snow showers, especially southeast of the lakes. Monday . VFR.

MARINE. The center of a surface high pressure will cross across Pennsylvania today, bringing much lighter winds to the Lakes today. Small craft advisories, now solely on Lake Ontario will end from west to east through the morning and early afternoon hours. Fair weather conditions will then remain into the evening hours, though a strengthening southerly flow will begin to increase wave heights on the Canadian waters of both Lake Erie and Ontario. These southerly winds may bring small craft conditions late tonight and early Friday to near the northeast waters of Lake Ontario. Otherwise quiet conditions will continue on the Lakes into the start of the weekend with another mild airmass spreading across the Lower Lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LOZ044- 045.



SYNOPSIS . Thomas NEAR TERM . Thomas SHORT TERM . TMA LONG TERM . JJR AVIATION . TMA MARINE . Thomas

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY	1 mi	89 min	S 5.1 G 6	17°F			1038.6 hPa (+1.3)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY	24 mi	65 min		18°F			1037.1 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY	33 mi	59 min	E 2.9 G 5.1	19°F	39°F		1037 hPa	2°F
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY	48 mi	65 min		21°F			1036.3 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY

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SW26 G33

S27 G33

SW29 G38

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W25 G31

W23 G28

W19 G25

W15 G20

W14 G19

W13 G16

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W14 G17

W12 G16

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NW12 G15

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W12 G17

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SE8 G13

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S20 G27

S16 G20

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SW15 G19

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SW14 G19

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SW20 G27

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SW20 G25

W16

W17 G21

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY	20 mi	36 min	SSE 3	mi	Fair	15°F	10°F	84%	1039.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIAG

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)

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W18 G37

W21 G29

W18 G29

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SW20 G27

SW15 G24

W20 G25

W15 G19

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (9,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY

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