Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Olcott, NY
May 16, 2024 4:11 PM EDT (20:11 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:47 AM Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 12:46 PM Moonset 1:57 AM |
LOZ042 Niagara River To Hamlin Beach Along Lake Ontario- 432 Am Edt Thu May 16 2024
Today - North winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Areas of fog early. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ005
No data
No data
FXUS61 KBUF 161831 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 231 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
A few slow moving showers east of Lake Ontario into the early evening hours, otherwise our region will remain dry with above normal temperatures through today and tonight. A poorly organized cold front will bring more coverage area to showers for the eastern Great Lakes region tomorrow and tomorrow night, with a few rumbles of thunder also possible. Showers may linger Saturday before drier air builds in from the north and returns partly sunny skies.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
An area of low pressure continues to swirl south of Long Island this afternoon, with visible satellite imagery displaying clouds in general light east to west flow on the periphery of this low over our region. Our region will remain partly to mostly cloudy through the afternoon hours.
Instability is quite weak this afternoon and early evening, with just a few hundred J/KG of MUCAPE, and low level lapse rates around 6.5 to 7.0 C/KM. With a capping inversion around 600 hPa east of Lake Ontario any showers that form in this light flow will be slow moving, but likely not to grow too tall. Will have just a chance for showers in the forecast.
Any diurnal convective showers will quickly diminish this evening.
Light flow with weak ridging in the lower levels. Dewpoints a just a touch lower tonight, and with minimal to no rainfall today fog coverage should be less than in recent nights. Will have some fog in the river valleys of the Southern Tier and Black River Valley.
The next system will be approaching our region later tonight. Winds will veer to southeasterly through the night. Just a 20 knot LLJ so downslope wind gusts will be minor. While the cold front with this next system is ill defined at times, looking in the mid levels a distinct 700/500 hPa shortwave trough will carry northeastward from the Ohio Valley. Increase in moisture and lift ahead of this shortwave will bring rain showers to our doorsteps tomorrow morning.
As this shortwave passes across our region tomorrow a band of showers and embedded thunder will move from west to east across our region. Better instability remains across WNY, but better lapse rates quickly move towards the east. Will carry a chance for thunderstorms, with likely convection across WNY tomorrow moving into the eastern Lake Ontario region tomorrow evening. As daytime instability wanes, the threat for thunder will also diminish, though lingering troughiness aloft will maintain chances for showers through the entire night.
Basin average rainfall Friday and Friday night will average a tenth to a third of an inch. Any thunderstorm or heavier shower does have the potential for localized higher amounts.
Lows tomorrow night will be a few degrees higher than tonight...due to the southerly flow firmly entrenched for our region, and lingering cloudiness. Highs on Friday will remain above normal in the low to mid 70s.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A mid level ridge will begin to increase in strength on Saturday, but before it does, a few showers are likely to linger behind the recent passage of a mid level shortwave, especially towards the State line. A few hundred J/KG of MUCAPE across SW NYS will aid in shower formation.
If clearing of the sky over Lake Ontario develops, and a lake breeze boundary forms, could also see a few showers forming south of the Lake, in convergence with a general light southeast synoptic flow.
Drier airmass from the north will bring partial clearing through the afternoon. This drying trend from the north will bring a dry night Saturday night.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A low pressure system will start this period near the Carolina coastline, with an upper level ridge building northeastward across our region. Subsidence from this ridge should keep the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe dry, with perhaps just an isolated shower on a lake breeze boundary.
The southwesterly flow will steadily increase temperatures aloft at 850 hPa, such that at the surface most areas will see day to day warming of a degree or two. Could see a fair amount of temperatures in the low to mid 80s in the traditional warmer spots of our region before clouds begin to thicken ahead of the next system Tuesday.
A more vigorous shortwave trough will drop across the Plains Tuesday. The 12Z deterministic models display a fair amount of agreement with this shortwave, with a line of showers and thunderstorms passing across our region Wednesday. Both the ECMWF and GFS bring a decent LLJ near our region, which depending upon timing of the cold front, could allow for taller updrafts and potential gustier winds at the surface.
Will keep Tuesday night on the warm side of guidance with the southerly flow and increasing clouds. Could see a few temperatures in the upper 70s again east of Lake Ontario before the cold front passage Wednesday.
Cooler behind the front Thursday. A trailing secondary trough may bring a shower or two to areas east of Lake Ontario Thursday, otherwise WNY should be dry with dewpoints returning back into the 50s.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
For the 18Z TAFS a deck of MVFR and low end VFR ceiling heights are found. There are some breaks, but these clouds will remain into the evening hours. A few showers east of Lake Ontario, otherwise we should remain dry through 12Z.
Dewpoints are a tad lower tonight, and even though light flow, fog should not be as widespread as the previous night or two. Will have a little valley fog, that may near KJHW...otherwise mainly VFR tonight.
Tomorrow a weak cold front, and mid level shortwave will near the region. MVFR ceiling heights in the Southern Tier tomorrow morning will spread north and eastward through the day across WNY. Showers will near KJHW/KBUF and KIAG between 15Z and 18Z...slowly working their way eastward through the day. Weak flow aloft will keep wind gusts to a minimum.
Outlook...
Friday night...A chance for showers, with patches of fog around.
Saturday...Areas of MVFR with a chance for showers.
Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. An isolated shower Tuesday on Lake Erie lake breeze.
MARINE
A weak pressure gradient will continue general light winds through the remainder of the work week. A mainly offshore, southeast, flow will develop tonight and increase a little on Friday as a weak cold front crosses the Lake. Following the passage of the weak cold front winds are not expected to increase much, and in fact remain light through Tuesday morning.
The next system of note will be a cold front Wednesday, one that has a bit more structure, and a deeper surface low...with the increasing pressure gradient likely to bring a bit more wind and waves to the Lakes.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 231 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
A few slow moving showers east of Lake Ontario into the early evening hours, otherwise our region will remain dry with above normal temperatures through today and tonight. A poorly organized cold front will bring more coverage area to showers for the eastern Great Lakes region tomorrow and tomorrow night, with a few rumbles of thunder also possible. Showers may linger Saturday before drier air builds in from the north and returns partly sunny skies.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
An area of low pressure continues to swirl south of Long Island this afternoon, with visible satellite imagery displaying clouds in general light east to west flow on the periphery of this low over our region. Our region will remain partly to mostly cloudy through the afternoon hours.
Instability is quite weak this afternoon and early evening, with just a few hundred J/KG of MUCAPE, and low level lapse rates around 6.5 to 7.0 C/KM. With a capping inversion around 600 hPa east of Lake Ontario any showers that form in this light flow will be slow moving, but likely not to grow too tall. Will have just a chance for showers in the forecast.
Any diurnal convective showers will quickly diminish this evening.
Light flow with weak ridging in the lower levels. Dewpoints a just a touch lower tonight, and with minimal to no rainfall today fog coverage should be less than in recent nights. Will have some fog in the river valleys of the Southern Tier and Black River Valley.
The next system will be approaching our region later tonight. Winds will veer to southeasterly through the night. Just a 20 knot LLJ so downslope wind gusts will be minor. While the cold front with this next system is ill defined at times, looking in the mid levels a distinct 700/500 hPa shortwave trough will carry northeastward from the Ohio Valley. Increase in moisture and lift ahead of this shortwave will bring rain showers to our doorsteps tomorrow morning.
As this shortwave passes across our region tomorrow a band of showers and embedded thunder will move from west to east across our region. Better instability remains across WNY, but better lapse rates quickly move towards the east. Will carry a chance for thunderstorms, with likely convection across WNY tomorrow moving into the eastern Lake Ontario region tomorrow evening. As daytime instability wanes, the threat for thunder will also diminish, though lingering troughiness aloft will maintain chances for showers through the entire night.
Basin average rainfall Friday and Friday night will average a tenth to a third of an inch. Any thunderstorm or heavier shower does have the potential for localized higher amounts.
Lows tomorrow night will be a few degrees higher than tonight...due to the southerly flow firmly entrenched for our region, and lingering cloudiness. Highs on Friday will remain above normal in the low to mid 70s.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A mid level ridge will begin to increase in strength on Saturday, but before it does, a few showers are likely to linger behind the recent passage of a mid level shortwave, especially towards the State line. A few hundred J/KG of MUCAPE across SW NYS will aid in shower formation.
If clearing of the sky over Lake Ontario develops, and a lake breeze boundary forms, could also see a few showers forming south of the Lake, in convergence with a general light southeast synoptic flow.
Drier airmass from the north will bring partial clearing through the afternoon. This drying trend from the north will bring a dry night Saturday night.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A low pressure system will start this period near the Carolina coastline, with an upper level ridge building northeastward across our region. Subsidence from this ridge should keep the Sunday through Tuesday timeframe dry, with perhaps just an isolated shower on a lake breeze boundary.
The southwesterly flow will steadily increase temperatures aloft at 850 hPa, such that at the surface most areas will see day to day warming of a degree or two. Could see a fair amount of temperatures in the low to mid 80s in the traditional warmer spots of our region before clouds begin to thicken ahead of the next system Tuesday.
A more vigorous shortwave trough will drop across the Plains Tuesday. The 12Z deterministic models display a fair amount of agreement with this shortwave, with a line of showers and thunderstorms passing across our region Wednesday. Both the ECMWF and GFS bring a decent LLJ near our region, which depending upon timing of the cold front, could allow for taller updrafts and potential gustier winds at the surface.
Will keep Tuesday night on the warm side of guidance with the southerly flow and increasing clouds. Could see a few temperatures in the upper 70s again east of Lake Ontario before the cold front passage Wednesday.
Cooler behind the front Thursday. A trailing secondary trough may bring a shower or two to areas east of Lake Ontario Thursday, otherwise WNY should be dry with dewpoints returning back into the 50s.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
For the 18Z TAFS a deck of MVFR and low end VFR ceiling heights are found. There are some breaks, but these clouds will remain into the evening hours. A few showers east of Lake Ontario, otherwise we should remain dry through 12Z.
Dewpoints are a tad lower tonight, and even though light flow, fog should not be as widespread as the previous night or two. Will have a little valley fog, that may near KJHW...otherwise mainly VFR tonight.
Tomorrow a weak cold front, and mid level shortwave will near the region. MVFR ceiling heights in the Southern Tier tomorrow morning will spread north and eastward through the day across WNY. Showers will near KJHW/KBUF and KIAG between 15Z and 18Z...slowly working their way eastward through the day. Weak flow aloft will keep wind gusts to a minimum.
Outlook...
Friday night...A chance for showers, with patches of fog around.
Saturday...Areas of MVFR with a chance for showers.
Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. An isolated shower Tuesday on Lake Erie lake breeze.
MARINE
A weak pressure gradient will continue general light winds through the remainder of the work week. A mainly offshore, southeast, flow will develop tonight and increase a little on Friday as a weak cold front crosses the Lake. Following the passage of the weak cold front winds are not expected to increase much, and in fact remain light through Tuesday morning.
The next system of note will be a cold front Wednesday, one that has a bit more structure, and a deeper surface low...with the increasing pressure gradient likely to bring a bit more wind and waves to the Lakes.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY | 1 mi | 71 min | ENE 11G | 56°F | 29.88 | |||
| YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY | 20 mi | 71 min | NNE 1.9G | 63°F | 29.87 | |||
| NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY | 24 mi | 53 min | 70°F | 29.86 | ||||
| BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY | 33 mi | 53 min | WSW 1G | 63°F | 60°F | 29.84 | 57°F | |
| 45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax | 34 mi | 71 min | SSE 1.9G | 57°F | 53°F | 0 ft | 29.88 | |
| 45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby | 44 mi | 71 min | NE 1.9G | 58°F | 57°F | 0 ft | 29.88 | |
| PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY | 48 mi | 53 min | 62°F | 29.84 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KIAG NIAGARA FALLS INTL,NY | 20 sm | 18 min | NE 04 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 73°F | 55°F | 53% | 29.85 |
Buffalo, NY,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE