Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Barview, OR

FXUS66 KMFR 142326 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 326 PM PST Sun Dec 14 2025

DISCUSSION
Much like the last several days, satellite image shows low clouds persisting in the Rogue, Illinois, and Shasta Valleys. Above the low cloud layer, were seeing increasing high and mid level clouds ahead of a weak front. It's likely the low clouds will persist Rogue and Illinois Valley through early this evening.
The above mentioned weak front could be enough to lift the lower cloud deck in the Rogue and Illinois Valley. Otherwise, the front will have no impact on our weather. A few sprinkles could develop in Coos and northwest Douglas county. Per the usual the NBM solution is too bullish (meaning pops are too high and too far inland) this afternoon and evening which does not add given that the operational models and majority of the individual ensemble members show nothing.

Today will be the last quiet day of the forecast period. The pattern will become more active starting Monday and is likely to last for the next 7-10 days. In a relative sense, it will seem like a significant change with bouts of moderate to heavy rain high elevation mountains snow, and moderate to strong winds. However, it's not all that unusual to have active weather of this magnitude this time of the year.

The first front will arrive at the coast early Monday morning bringing rain and gusty winds to the coast, north of Cape Blanco.
Precipitation will move inland during the day Monday, with winds increasing east of the Cascades. The bulk of the precipitation Monday will be along the coast, coastal mountains and Cascades, Most of the Rogue Valley could end up dry during the day Monday with not much more than a few light rain showers due to the non-favorable southwest flow. Also areas east of the Cascades will likely get little to nothing, but it will be windy in the afternoon.

For the remainder of week, we'll have a series of fronts moving through the area bringing more rain, moderate to strong winds and higher elevation mountains snow. Detail's on the timing mentioned below could vary with each individual storm, so be on the lookout for updates to the forecast in the days to come.

A second and stronger system will arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday brining moderate to heavy rain to the coast, coastal mountains and Cascades. Moderate to occasionally strong winds are possible at the coast, but right now, not all of the ingredients are there for a winds to reach high wind warning criteria at the coast, but they do for east of the Cascades, especially near and at the ridges. guidance shows 700 mb winds between 55-65 kts Tuesday night through Wednesday morning, then decreasing some Wednesday afternoon.
Thus, a high wind watch has been issued for portions of Lake, Klamath and Modoc County. Please see NPWMFR for more details.

Snow levels will be between 7000-8000 feet Tuesday, then lowering between 4500-5500 feet Wednesday, but by the time snow levels get to the low end Wednesday the heaviest precipitation will have already ended. That means road snow concerns will be limited.

A stronger storm will arrive Thursday and last through Thursday night bringing another round of moderate to heavy precipitation and strong winds. Strong winds will be a concern Thursday, especially east of the Cascades where some of the guidance shows 700 mb winds between 70-80 kts over a large chunk of real estate east of the Cascades. It's also worth noting, strong winds east of the Cascades could be of longer duration (12-18 hours). Although not as high of a concern, moderate to strong winds will be a concern along the coast, and Shasta Valley. Current gradients between Arcata and North Bend peak out at almost 10 mb Thursday and almost 9 mb between Redding and Medford which are significant enough for strong winds in these areas. However the wind direction in the Shasta Valley has a westerly component which could put a cap on the magnitude of the winds. Still something we'll have to keep a close watch on.

Thre's good agreement the storm that arrives Thursday will have an atmospheric river (AR) component, with a long fetch of moisture extending southwest towards 160W, with the source region coming from the tropics. Additionally, there is favorable upslope flow along the coastal mountains and Cascades. The net result could be a prolonged period (12 hours) of heavy precipitation for these areas along with moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall elsewhere. The one good thing is with the lack of rain the last few weeks, rivers are pretty low, but they will come up over time and we could be looking at potential flooding on the Coquille towards the end of the week.
Again, plenty of time to address this, and we'll keep everyone updated on this.

Next week leading up to the Christmas Holiday, beginning around Sunday afternoon, there's strong evidence that's being supported by the ECMWF, GEFS ensemble means and clusters. We'll be heading into a colder and wet pattern with storms originating from the Gulf of Alaska through at least Christmas Day.

These typically result in colder temperatures, and precipitation with lower snow levels. The pattern shows below normal 500 mb anomalies with a stronger upper troughing in the western U.S. with ridging and above normal 500 mb anomalies in the northeastern part of the U.S. The anomalies being shown are pretty significant this far out, which is unusual since they tend to lean more towards climatology as the ridge dominated and trough dominated solutions among the numerous solutions tend to "balance out."

This is a almost the opposite of the pattern we have experienced for almost the last three weeks, with stronger ridging in the western part of the U.S. and deep upper troughing in the northeastern part of the U.S. In other words, the switch basically gets flipped as the overall pattern changes. -Petrucelli
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