Saturday, July11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Barview, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 8:59PM Saturday July 11, 2020 11:15 AM PDT (18:15 UTC) Moonrise 11:50PMMoonset 11:23AM Illumination 62% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 840 Am Pdt Sat Jul 11 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday evening through late Wednesday night...
Today..N wind 5 kt...backing to nw in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 ft at 8 seconds.
Tonight..NW wind 5 kt...veering to E after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Sun..E wind 5 kt...backing to N in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Sun night..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. NW swell 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..N wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. Mixed swell nw 1 to 3 ft and sw 1 ft.
Mon night..N wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. SW swell 1 ft.
Tue..N wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. Mixed swell nw 2 ft and sw 1 ft...shifting to the sw 1 ft and nw 2 ft.
Wed..N wind 20 kt...rising to 25 kt in the evening, then... Easing to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 5 to 6 ft. W swell 2 ft.
PZZ300 840 Am Pdt Sat Jul 11 2020
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. Light northerly winds and seas will continue through early Sunday morning. High pressure centered southwest of the area will then expand northeastward developing a thermal trough along and near the coast. This will cause northerly winds to increase and seas to become steep south of cape blanco Sunday, expanding northward Sunday night. Gales are expected to develop Monday into Tuesday south of cape blanco, expanding to areas inside of 10nm Tuesday afternoon. These conditions are not expected to begin to improve until late next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Barview, OR
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location: 43.35, -124.33     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 111557 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 857 AM PDT Sat Jul 11 2020

UPDATE.

Coastal stratus still covers most of the central Oregon coastline with clearing near the Brookings area. We're expecting this coastal stratus to eventually clear out, probably closer to the afternoon hours instead of late morning. Highs are still expected to push into the lower 90's today in most of our southern valleys west of the Cascades.

For more information on beyond today, read the discussion below. Fire weather is also a concern today and is discussed in the fire weather discussion below.

-Smith

DISCUSSION. /Issued 507 AM PDT Sat Jul 11 2020/ Satellite shows some marine layer making it's way to the coast north of Cape Blanco with some scattered stratus development already underway in the Coquille Basin. Also, there's a finger of stratus making it's way north just offshore of the Brookings area. Otherwise, skies are clear across the area and are expected to remain so through the morning. Some marine stratus will filter into the Umpqua Basin later this morning, but coverage should be considerably less than recent mornings.

The forecast area is wedged between the Four Corners High and upper level troughing off the BC coast. While this has been the general pattern for the past week or so, that will begin to change this weekend as the trough axis shifts eastward and the Four Corners High shifts southward. Satellite shows high level cloud cover associated with the upper level and this will bring a dry front through the area late this evening into Sunday. As the trough axis begins shifting inland into British Columbia, this will tighten surface pressure gradients later today. This will drive some gusty winds across the area this afternoon and evening ahead of the dry front, especially in the Rogue and Shasta Valleys and east of the Cascades. Winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph will be common in the previously mentioned areas, with gusts up to 40 mph for areas east of the Cascades. Afternoon humidities will be quite low during this time and this will lead to concerns for rapid fire growth. A Red Flag Warning is in place for this for portions of Modoc, Lake, and Klamath counties. For more details see the fire weather discussion below. Otherwise, expect seasonable temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal.

Tonight into Sunday, the marine layer will return to the usual areas and will likely be similar in coverage to recent days. Expect sunny skies by the afternoon for those areas. For the remainder of Sunday, conditions will be quite similar to today. Pressure gradients will remain increased as the trough axis moves further inland high pressure to the southeast continues to shift. Winds won't be quite as strong but it will still be breezy to gusty across the area. Afternoon temperatures will be slightly cooler Sunday and humidities will be slightly higher for some areas. Despite this, humidities will be low enough that, coupled with gusty winds, will lead to another round of fire weather concerns for portions of Modoc County. Again, for more details see the Fire Weather Discussion below.

As the upper trough moves inland into British Columbia and the Four Corners High shifts south and eastward, high pressure will develop and strengthen over the eastern Pacific Ocean over the upcoming week. This will shift the flow aloft over the area to a stable northwest flow that will persist through next week. At the surface, a thermal trough develops tonight into Sunday and strengthens into next week. This will bring a period of offshore (east to northeasterly) flow with gusty north winds along the coast and over the coastal waters. Temperatures will remain seasonable and only a few degrees above normal. For this time of year, that equates to mid 90s for West Side valleys, mid to upper 80s east of the Cascades and mid to upper 90s for Northern California. Easterly flow will limit the extent of the marine layer intrusion, likely becoming less and less as the week progresses. Also, expect the Chetco Effect to develop next week, where guidance is reaching into the 80s for the Brookings area. Overall, northwest flow aloft will limit any thunderstorm potential and benign summer weather is expected for the majority of the work week.

Towards the end of the forecast period (Friday into Saturday), we're watching the potential for thunderstorm development. Deterministic models are showing a possible cut-off low off the California Coast. This is a favorable pattern for southerly flow to set up, tap into monsoonal moisture, and bring that moist unstable air into the region. The GFS is more ambitious with this idea than the EC and the GEFS is more in line with the EC with more of an elongated trough over the West Coast. The latter solutions would lead to a more southwesterly flow, limiting the amount of monsoonal moisture to be fed into the area. Either way, it's something worth keeping an eye on to see how future model runs trend.

/BR-y

AVIATION. For the 11/12Z TAF Cycle . MVFR ceilings along the coast north of Cape Blanco are likely to persist until late morning. These ceilings extend westward across the coastal waters where they're likely a little lower than on the coast, and into the Coos County Coastal Mountains where partial terrain obscurations likely exist. It appears that these ceilings will not reach KRBG this morning. LIFR ceilings and fog exist along the Curry County coast from near Gold Beach southward. Both of these areas of clouds are expected to dissolve by afternoon. Otherwise, VFR is expected to persist through the period with some gusty late afternoon to early evening winds across the interior. Returning clouds tonight into Sunday morning along and near the coast currently appear as if they will come in at VFR levels.

~BTL

MARINE. Updated 800 AM PDT Saturday, 11 July 2020 . High pressure centered off of the California coast combined with an upper level trough across the northeastern Pacific will maintain a light to moderate northerly flow through early Sunday morning. The upper level trough will shift inland Sunday allowing the high to expand northeastward behind it, in turn developing a thermal trough along and near the coast. This will cause northerly winds to increase and seas to become steep south of Cape Blanco Sunday, expanding northward Sunday night. Gales are expected to develop Monday into Tuesday south of Cape Blanco, likely expanding to areas inside of 10NM Tuesday afternoon.

A Gale Watch is in effect for offshore waters south of Cape Blanco from 4 AM PDT Monday morning through late Wednesday night. Gales are likely expand into areas within 10NM of the coast Tuesday afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to develop late Sunday morning into the afternoon south of Cape Blanco, then spread to most of the southern Oregon coastal waters by Monday morning. Conditions are not expected to improve until the thermal trough pushes inland next Friday or Saturday.

~BTL/BPN

FIRE WEATHER. Updated 400 AM PDT Saturday, 11 July 2020 . The main concern over the next several days will be gusty winds with low relative humidities Saturday afternoon/evening for portions of Fire Weather Zones 624, 625 and 285 and again Sunday afternoon/evening for Fire Weather Zone 285.

The upper level pattern that has dominated the weather for the past week or so will begin shifting today. Upper level troughing off the BC coast will move inland into BC and this will push the Four Corners High southward late tonight into Sunday. As the trough axis begins moving eastward, a dry front will move through the area late this evening into Sunday. Pressure gradients will increase ahead of this front and this will be the driver for breezy to strong gusty winds across the forecast area today and again Sunday, but especially in the Rogue and Shasta Valleys and east of the Cascades. In addition to increased pressure gradients, 700 mb winds between 20-30 kts and 600 mb winds of 30-35 kts could mix down near or to the surface as we reach max heating. This leads to high confidence that gusts of 25 to 30 mph will be common in the previously mentioned areas, with gusts up to 40 mph for areas east of the Cascades. These winds coupled with low afternoon relative humidities (5 to 15%) will lead to critical fire weather conditions and a Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of FWZ 285, 624, and 625. In the meantime, gusty breezes are expected in the Rogue and Applegate Valleys south and eastward to the Mount Shasta highlands, most notably over Siskiyou Summit into the northern end of the Shasta Valley Saturday afternoon and evening. However, we're not expecting critical conditions in those areas.

On Sunday, the upper trough axis will move through the forecast area and another round of breezy to gusty winds is expected Sunday afternoon. Winds will be slightly weaker and humidities will be slightly higher east of the Cascades. However, the combination of the two could still reach critical values for portions of FWZ 285 Sunday afternoon and evening. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for this period as well.

Sunday night into next week, the upper level trough moves inland into British Columbia and the Four Corners High shifts south and eastward. Meanwhile, high pressure will develop and strengthen over the Eastern Pacific Ocean. This will put the area under stable northwest flow aloft that looks to persist through the end of the week. At the surface, a thermal trough will develop Saturday night into Sunday and strengthen into next week. This will result in a period of offshore (east to northeasterly) flow. There will be slight cooling Sunday, then temperatures rebound to near seasonal values (a few degrees above normal) and remain fairly steady through the week. Overall, next week will feature typical summer conditions will little to no chances of precipitation or thunderstorms.

Towards the end of the forecast period (Friday into Saturday), we're watching the potential for thunderstorm development. Deterministic models are showing a possible cut-off low off the California Coast. This is a favorable pattern for southerly flow to set up, tap into monsoonal moisture, and bring that moist unstable air into the region. The GFS is more ambitious with this idea than the EC and the GEFS is more in line with the EC with more of an elongated trough over the West Coast. The latter solutions would lead to a more southwesterly flow, limiting the amount of monsoonal moisture to be fed into the area. Either way, it's something worth keeping an eye onto see how future model runs trend.

/BR-y

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT this evening for ORZ624-625.

CA . Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT this evening for CAZ285. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for CAZ285.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-370. Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for PZZ356. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376. Gale Watch from late Sunday night through late Wednesday night for PZZ376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 0 mi39 min W 2.9 G 2.9 68°F1022.8 hPa
SNTO3 5 mi45 min N 1.9 62°F 1023 hPa55°F
46128 12 mi75 min 57°F 57°F
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 31 mi49 min 60°F3 ft
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 43 mi45 min NNW 8.9 G 14 63°F 47°F1023.2 hPa
46015 - Port Orford - 16 NM West of Port Orford, OR 49 mi25 min N 7.8 G 9.7 60°F 2 ft1022.8 hPa55°F

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR7 mi19 minNW 610.00 miOvercast64°F53°F68%1023 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOTH

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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N12N7N4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3SE3SE5CalmCalmW3NW6
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Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, Oregon
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Charleston
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Sat -- 12:28 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:49 AM PDT     5.90 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:47 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:19 AM PDT     0.91 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:23 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:05 PM PDT     6.57 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:57 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.93.54.35.15.75.95.54.73.62.41.40.911.72.94.25.46.26.66.35.74.73.73

Tide / Current Tables for Coos Bay, Oregon
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.