Monday, August26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lexington, MI

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 8:16PM Monday August 26, 2019 5:02 AM EDT (09:02 UTC) Moonrise 1:03AMMoonset 4:42PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ464 Expires:201908262015;;224487 Fzus63 Kdtx 260803 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 403 Am Edt Mon Aug 26 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..A large and strong low pressure system for this time of year forms over central canada and the midwest today. It brings a pattern of showers and Thunderstorms into the central great lakes tonight which continue into Tuesday as the associated cold front moves through the region. This front, averaging 29.70 inches, moves through lake huron and lower michigan Tuesday afternoon followed by elevated westerly wind through mid week as low pressure drops to 29.20 inches near hudson bay. High pressure building into the ohio valley gradually takes control across the central great lakes during the late week. Lhz462>464-262015- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 403 am edt Mon aug 26 2019
Today..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 20 to 25 knots early in the morning. Showers likely in the evening. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 20 to 25 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts to 30 knots. A chance of showers in the morning. A chance of Thunderstorms. Rain showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the evening...then building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and early morning.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms until early morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet until early morning.
LHZ464


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lexington, MI
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location: 43.35, -82.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 260758
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
358 am edt Mon aug 26 2019

Discussion
The persistent dome of high pressure that resulted in a very nice
weekend will finally give up control of the weather over SE mi today
as a stacked closed low drops into south-central canada (and
southward into the northern plains) later today. This, combined with
a lead shortwave over the mid ms valley that will be pulled north
across the long axis of lake mi into the much larger system, will
present several opportunities for precipitation today through
Tuesday, and possibly into Wednesday.

There will be a transition today from the dry anticyclonic east-
southeasterly flow aloft this morning to very moist cyclonic
southeast flow by afternoon. Impressive dry layer shown on the dtx
Sunday evening sounding between about 4kft and 30kft with a pwat of
0.49 inches will start us off dry this morning. Lead moisture well
up the warm frontal slope ahead of the lead shortwave will start
saturating the column in the upper levels this morning but it will
take til this afternoon when models show a good surge of deep
moisture behind a tight theta E gradient to saturate the column
bringing rain showers. Rap soundings show pwats jumping from 0.6" at
12z to 1.6" by 16z at dtw so it appears to happen quite quickly. By
evening consensus says it will be around 1.8". Will carry numerous
pops from about 18-06z to account for the wide area of warm
advective showers and high moisture content. Thunder chances remain
low through the day as warming aloft with cooler air at the surface
prevent much if any instability from developing.

A brief lull in precip (maybe scattered showers lingering) is
expected tonight before the next surge of moisture on the nose of
the low level jet lifts through west and central lower mi Tuesday
morning around 09-12z. Highest pops will be across the saginaw
valley with decreasing chances to the south and east away from the
forcing. This boost in moisture to an already moist environment
could result in pwats exceeding 2" Tuesday morning.

With several rounds of precipitation expected in the next 36 hours
and a very moist airmass we will need to watch for potential
flooding across the area. The axis of highest moisture looks to hold
to our west but several rounds of efficient rainfall with possible
convection and training of storms will need to be watched.

Warm advection with gusty southerly flow on Tuesday will allow high
temperatures to reach near 80 degrees before the cold front sweeps
across lower mi in the afternoon. Hires in good agreement that a
prefrontal trough will spark the next round of showers and
thunderstorms around 15-18z. Low CAPE (up to 500 j kg), decent shear
(30 knots) environment will be present allowing for mention of
thunder. Most models agree the actual cold front post 18z will be
little more than a wind shift toward the west with little to no
precip along it.

Strong mid level PV lobe then rotates around the broad upper low
sweeping across mi early Wednesday. A thermal trough with 850mb
temps in the single digits will then move over lower mi while zonal
westerly winds develop. Deep mixing to around 5-6kft with strong low
level lapse rates will bring down these stronger westerlies leading
to winds gusting to around 25-35mph in the afternoon. There is a low
chance a secondary shortwave trough passing to our north could
excite a few afternoon showers but best chances remain north with
ridge of high pressure already building back northward into lower mi
generally high pressure for the remainder of the forecast with only
a weak cold front Thursday night Friday and possible shearing
shortwave riding along the front once it settles to our south on
Sunday. Nearly zonal flow will keep high temperatures steady around
the mid 70s with lows in the mid 50s.

Marine
Small craft advisories are expanded across the rest of the southern
lake huron nearshore waters today through Tuesday and added to the
michigan waters of lake erie. Lake st clair is expected to remain
just below criteria but will be monitored for wind trends during the
morning. The elevated SE wind and high waves occur in stronger
gradient flow between departing high pressure and a large low
pressure system developing across central canada into the midwest.

Gusts likely reach 30 knots over the open waters of central and
northern lake huron by tonight also accompanied by a pattern of
showers and thunderstorms. The wind eases up as a cold front
approaches during Tuesday but then becomes moderate westerly behind
the front through mid week. The wind field remains elevated across
the central great lakes as the large low pressure system moves
slowly near hudson bay while high pressure builds into the ohio
valley. This high pressure system gradually takes over with improved
conditions during the late week period.

Hydrology
A large low pressure system develops today from central canada into
the midwest states and draws a pattern of showers and thunderstorms
into lower michigan late today and tonight. The incoming air mass is
warm and humid with high moisture content and could support locally
heavy downpours in stronger thunderstorms, especially during Tuesday
as a cold front moves in from the west to enhance activity. Basin
average rainfall is expected to be around 0.75 inches tonight
through Tuesday with isolated totals of 1 inch or more possible in
stronger thunderstorms and or in locations that see multiple rounds
of heavy rainfall. This presents a chance of localized flooding of
prone urban locations if higher totals set up across these areas
along with minor increases in area streams and rivers. The cold
front sweeps showers and thunderstorms eastward by Tuesday evening.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1151 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019
aviation...

vfr conditions will prevail into Monday morning as dry low level
southeast flow around high pressure over quebec continues. Moisture
will then increase steadily with approach of shortwave from the west
with CIGS in around 5kft thicken by early afternoon and rain showers
becoming increasingly likely during the mid late afternoon. In fact,
showers should prevail by the 22z-24z time frame and persist into
the evening as CIGS drop to at least MVFR. Winds will gust to 20
knots or a bit more again on Monday as pressure gradient remains in
place as this system nudges into the area.

For dtw... Cigs AOB 5kft will become increasingly likely after 18z on
Monday with rain showers developing after 21z. CIGS will drop
further and may approach ifr after 01z at the end of the forecast.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for CIGS at or below 5,000 by 18z Monday, high Monday
evening into Monday night.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement from 8 am edt this morning through this
evening for miz049-055-083.

Lakeshore flood advisory from 8 am this morning to 5 am edt Tuesday
for miz049-055.

Lakeshore flood warning from 8 am this morning to 10 pm edt this
evening for miz063-070-076-083.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt Tuesday for lhz441>443.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lez444.

Discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Bt
hydrology... .Bt
aviation... ..Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45149 - Southern Lake Huron 13 mi62 min E 16 G 18 67°F 70°F3 ft1019.5 hPa (-1.1)
PSCM4 27 mi62 min SE 16 G 19 69°F 1037.3 hPa (-1.0)
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 31 mi44 min SE 6 G 8 61°F 1018.9 hPa55°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 33 mi44 min 62°F 1018.9 hPa
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 47 mi44 min SSE 15 G 18 69°F 71°F1019.8 hPa62°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI39 mi87 minN 010.00 miFair59°F51°F77%1019.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHN

Wind History from PHN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm--CalmE3E7E7E8E7E6SE8SE6E7
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE10NE10
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CalmE6N5NE5N4N7N6N3N3Calm--Calm----Calm
2 days agoNW4NW4NW5NW6NW5NW5N9NW6N5N8NE8N9N7
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.