Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lexington, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 241521 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1021 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

UPDATE.

Isentropic upglide and copious Gulf moisture will allow drizzle/light rain showers to persist for the remainder of the morning and afternoon. Not much room for rising temperatures with easterly flow in place, with highs capping in the mid to upper-30s -- but warm enough to ensure all rain today. Closed low system, presently over Missouri/Illinois, will continue to meander northeast into lower Michigan by 06Z, introducing the chance to see areas of fog as the occluded front sets up over the state. Sufficient evidence for fog also observed over IL/MO, increasing confidence for fog chances tonight. Otherwise, no major updates to the forecast package.


PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 623 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

AVIATION .

A deep plume of low level moisture will accompany a low pressure system into the region this taf period. Brief window this morning for VFR conditions, before a steady reduction in ceiling heights emerges late morning through the afternoon as rainfall increase in coverage. The likelihood for LIFR restrictions will increase late afternoon or evening as the low advances in lower Michigan. Winds through the daylight period holding from the east around 10 knots. Maintenance of very low stratus with some component of restricted visibility in rain or drizzle will persist into tonight.

For DTW . Precipitation is expected to fall in the form of rain today and tonight.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Medium for ceilings aob 5kft this morning, then high this afternoon through tonight.

* High in ptype as rain today and tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION . Issued at 312 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

DISCUSSION .

Closed low over southern Missouri will modulate Southeast Michigan weather through the weekend. Widespread rain this morning is occasionally mixing with snow where rates are sufficiently high owing to low surface dewpoints. Snow has been transient, however, and temperatures continue to steadily rise. Initial moisture surge will lift through the area by around sunrise with the secondary surge following quickly on its heels. Daylight hours today charactertized by ongoing isentropic ascent within increasingly divergent flow aloft which will support periods of rain all day. Upper low will then meander toward Lower Michigan tonight through Saturday, much of this period on the drier side for most areas given the degree of dry air that has already wrapped into the core of the circulation. Snow potential emerges Saturday night through Sunday as cold cyclonic flow persists, any signal for sufficiently organized forcing to support accumulation remaining nebulous for now. Will toe the line with chc type pops and snow shower mention through the latter half of the weekend. High temps remain in the 30s, the warmer side of normal, throughout this period. Active subtropical jet once again emerges next week which will support relatively high floor on temps and introduces higher-than-normal uncertaninty into the medium range.

MARINE .

Southeasterly winds will rotate to easterly during the day today before slowly backing to northwesterly Saturday into Sunday as the low center crosses the lower peninsula. This system will bring a mix of rain and snow lasting through the day Sunday. The low is not particularly strong with a weaker pressure gradient reducing the wind potential. However, there is a small craft advisory along the Thumb Friday night as southeast flow creates higher wave action in the nearshore zone.

HYDROLOGY .

Forecast rain amounts around one half inch into existing snowpack, itself containing about one half inch liquid equiv, will cause ponding water in flood prone areas and some rises toward bankfull of area rivers and streams. However, the light rain amounts and slow release of frozen water source negate flooding potential.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Saturday for MIZ049-055-063.

Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Saturday for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

UPDATE . AM AVIATION . MR DISCUSSION . JVC MARINE . JVC HYDROLOGY . JVC

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
PSCM4	27 mi	85 min	E 5.1 G 6	35°F			1037.3 hPa (-0.6)
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI	31 mi	55 min	SE 12 G 15	37°F			1017.9 hPa	24°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI	33 mi	55 min		37°F			1018 hPa
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI	47 mi	55 min	SSE 7 G 9.9	35°F	32°F		1019.9 hPa	29°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI

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SE7 G10

SE6 G9

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SE12 G16

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1 day ago

SW10 G18

SW15 G21

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SW15 G20

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W8 G16

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SW6 G10

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SW7 G10

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SW12 G16

SW9 G17

SW9 G15

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SW10 G15

SW12 G17

SW13 G17

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
St Clair County International Airport, MI	39 mi	30 min	E 8	3.00 mi	Heavy Drizzle	36°F	26°F	70%	1018.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHN

Wind History from PHN (wind in knots)

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W4

NW8 G14

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1 day ago

NW10 G16

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S12 G17

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W11 G22

W13 G18

W9 G22

W12 G19

W10 G17

W8 G15

W11 G21

W10 G17

W8 G16

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W10 G18

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W10 G19

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W10 G15

W7 G18

W10 G15

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W8 G14

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (11,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI

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