Lexington, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lexington, MI

April 23, 2024 3:35 AM EDT (07:35 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:32 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM
Moonrise 7:23 PM   Moonset 5:15 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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LHZ464 Expires:202404231000;;214256 Fzus63 Kdtx 230157 Glflh
open lake forecast for lake huron national weather service detroit/pontiac mi 957 pm edt Mon apr 22 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on lake huron
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.

Synopsis - High pressure, 30.30 inches, centered over the lower mississippi valley extends into the central great lakes tonight offering favorable marine conditions. Low pressure, 29.40 inches, crosses central ontario and northern lake superior late tonight and Tuesday producing a period of showers which may include some Thunderstorms later in the day, especially ahead of a cold front. Colder air filters in Tuesday night leading a brisk morning Wednesday. Benign conditions expected Thursday with high pressure returning, at least through Friday morning.
lhz363-462>464-231000- lake huron from sturgeon point to alabaster mi beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port austin to harbor beach beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from port sanilac to port huron beyond 5nm off shore- 957 pm edt Mon apr 22 2024

Rest of tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. A chance of showers after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet.

Tuesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. A chance of showers. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.

Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning - .then becoming north 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 8 to 12 feet after midnight. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.

Wednesday - North winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon. Waves 8 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.

Wednesday night - North winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning - .then becoming light and variable after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.

Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the southeast late in the morning - .then backing to the northeast late in the afternoon becoming east 10 to 15 knots late in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots until early morning. A chance of showers in the late evening and early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.

Saturday - South winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales decreasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots until early morning. Showers until afternoon. Rain showers likely early in the evening - .then a chance of showers in the late evening and early morning. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.

LHZ400
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lexington, MI
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 230414 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1214 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers arrive early this morning with possible thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

- Strong winds of 30 to 40 mph will be possible in the Thumb late tonight and Wednesday.

- Dry and cool weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday

- Periodic rain and/or thunderstorm chances are expected to develop late Friday through the upcoming weekend as an upper level trough pushes across the region. Low confidence exists in the timing of rain activity.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail through tonight as greater coverage of high clouds arrive along with scattered showers. These VFR showers will move eastward across the terminals mainly between the hours of 08Z and 13Z this morning. Brief dry period in the mid morning to early afternoon as a southwest gradient continues to support gusts to around 25 knots that pick up in the early morning hours. The lower level winds will transport greater moisture into the region and bring an area of rainfall lifting northeastward during the afternoon. This will affect mainly PTK and terminals to the south.
Have include a tempo group for FNT as they may get clipped by these afternoon showers. This rainfall is expected to come with MVFR ceilings, but it is possible these may remain VFR showers. A surface low moving in from Wisconsin will keep showers in the forecast after 23/00Z with the potential for thunderstorms as well, especially across mbS.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceilings aob 5kft late tonight, medium to high Tuesday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

DISCUSSION...

Dry air from the surface to 500hPa dominates, with the exception of a low-level diurnal cumulus deck that will soon dissipate. Mostly sunny skies have pushed temperatures up into the mid-60s today, with dew points around 30. Red Flag Warning remains in effect as the combination of aforementioned dry air and southwest winds of 15mph have kept the risk in place. The warning is in effect until 8pm tonight, at which point dew points are expected in increase as temperatures cool overnight.

Positively tilted upper level trough supports the further development of a low pressure system bringing precipitation to the area. The first band is expected to move in Tuesday morning, bringing light rain across the CWA supported by a cold front. Dry airmass fills in behind the front further north, while a larger rain band clips the southern part of the CWA, mainly staying south of I- 94.

Southeast Michigan will be at the southern edge of an area of strong frontogenesis as the low tracks eastward Tuesday night, producing rain along a second, stronger cold front. SPC has issued a Marginal Risk for the northern half of the CWA for this fropa. Freezing heights will be low and lapse rates will be steep, prompting the possibility for hail to approach severe limits, should any severe storms appear. Wind is also a concern, with strong low level flow and low stability potentially allowing gusts up to 50mph to mix down. The appearance of severe storms seems unlikely due to low CAPE values coupled with high shear, but should a stronger updraft develop, it is possible that a storm could turn severe. Storm total QPF for the entire area is around 0.25 across much of the CWA, with greater values up to 0.4 inches possible near the Michigan/Ohio border.

The aforementioned front drops through the CWA Wednesday night, with wind gusts ramping up in its wake especially near the Lake Huron shoreline where subdued frictional effects and warmer lake waters lead to a stronger low level jet and more efficient mixing potential respectively. The expectation is for gusts to briefly ramp up to 35- 40 mph overnight, highest gusts in the Thumb, and only gradually subside through Wednesday morning.

By mid morning Wednesday, the cold front will be well south of the state line, establishing a period of deep isentropic downglide and increasing column stability locally. A low amplitude shortwave trails behind the main trough axis to keep stratus trapped below the subsidence inversion in the morning before clearing out Wednesday afternoon. Period of mid-level height rises and surface high pressure will maintain overall benign conditions Wednesday through Friday, although thermal troughing with H8 temperatures in the negative single digits will support below normal highs in the low 50s Wednesday and mid 50s on Thursday. Coldest temperatures expected Thursday morning with lows in the 20s. Freeze headlines look increasingly likely for Wednesday night-Thursday morning.

Meanwhile, the next major weather system ejects out of the Four Corners region late Thursday with a northeastward trajectory toward the upper Midwest for the weekend. Southeast MI will reside between departing high pressure to the east and the upstream low to support deep southwest return flow. Effective moisture transport thus ensues with over 90% of CMCE/EPS/GEFS members forecasting PWATs above an inch by Saturday. Models continue to struggle with large-scale feature placement and amplitude, although SE MI looks to reside within the broader area of warm advection. Setup thus looking favorable for periods of rain and possible thunderstorms late Friday into the weekend alongside warming temperatures that comfortably climb into the 70s late this week.

MARINE...

A ridge axis gets shoved toward the Mid-Atlantic this evening as an unbalanced speed max extends across north-central CONUS. This forces downstream surface winds over the central Great Lakes to veer south- southwesterly with enhanced flow across Saginaw Bay and Lake Huron.
The warm advective regime limits gust potential to around 25 knots but some areas could exceed 30 knots over the open waters. Surface low pressure associated with the aforementioned disturbance then crosses central Ontario and northern Lake Superior late tonight and Tuesday yielding renewed gradient flow. Small Craft Advisory criteria winds and waves arrive after midnight for Saginaw Bay before spreading to the rest of the nearshore zones by sunrise, thus the advisory has been issued until 4 PM Tuesday. The system also yields a period of showers which may include some thunderstorms later in the day, especially along the secondary frontal boundary.
Colder post-frontal air filters in Tuesday night leading to brisk northerly flow. Some low-end potential for gusts to gales exists while lapse rates remain steep and forecast soundings are well-mixed as the LLJ clips central Lake Huron. Benign marine conditions expected Thursday with high pressure in control, at least through Friday morning.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ441>443.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ421-422.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ444.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 31 mi47 min SSW 8.9G13 52°F 29.8734°F
PBWM4 31 mi47 min 51°F 29.88
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 33 mi47 min 53°F 29.88
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI 47 mi47 min SSW 12G17 53°F 48°F29.8234°F


Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KPHN40 sm20 minS 0710 smClear50°F34°F54%29.91
Link to 5 minute data for KPHN


Wind History from PHN
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Tide / Current for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of great lakes   
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Detroit, MI,



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