Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lexington, MI

DISCUSSION

Strong cold front departs this morning with cold advection rushing into lower Michigan in its wake. Expecting the 12z.KDTX raob to sample near 0 C h8 temperatures as a sharp thermal gradient sets up north-south. This leads to a roughly 10-15 degree spread in forecast highs for today, low 40s near the Ohio border to upper 20s-low 30s in the Thumb-Saginaw Valley regions. Limited cloud cover expected through the morning hours as high based cirrus works across the area. Nighttime Microphysics RGB however is already showing good moisture flux off of Lake Superior in the cold advective regime, which will combine with eastward flux of synoptic moisture to bring increasingly cloudy skies to SE Michigan this afternoon.

Aggressive shift in the solution space over the past 24 hours regarding tonight's system, with a downward trend in forecast snowfall amounts noted. The overall driver of this trend comes from the separation of the local deformation axis and the developing Ohio Valley surface low. Earlier model runs were phasing these features and producing a tightly packed thermal gradient and strong FGEN circulation, with more recent model runs backing off significantly.
The surface low circulation is now forecast to be further south and broader, keeping moisture transport to our south. A prominent 850- 700mb dry layer has been noted consistently in model runs which holds off snow onset until after 00z (7pm), and with the latest moisture trends reduces QPF especially south of I-96. Snowfall totals have trended below an inch toward the Ohio border. Northern areas still have a shot to see 1 to 2 inches of accumulation as the snowband advects into the area along the developing deformation axis. Weaker FGEN signature favors more stability aloft, which takes away much of the mesoscale forcing needed to overachieve in the band. QPF is broadly 0.10-0.15", but with increasingly favorable microphysics through the event as profiles cool and the dendritic growth zone deepens. General trend will thus be toward large and fluffy flakes leading to a couple inches of potential accumulation before the band dissipates early Sunday morning.

High pressure begins to settle into the northern Plains Sunday morning, leading to a veering trend in wind profiles toward northeast flow. The cold airmass and northeast flow activate moisture flux off of Lake Huron, although with a muted response given the current extent of ice cover. Nonetheless, steep low level lapse rates of 7 C/km intersect with deeply saturated RH (wrt ice)
profiles up to 12.0 kft agl. Thus expecting some degree of lake enhancement to generate additional accumulations for the Thumb and may push totals above 3 inches. Inbound subsidence then lowers inversion heights and strips away column moisture to decrease snow shower coverage by Sunday afternoon.

Broader forecast for SE Michigan focuses on well below average temperatures Sunday and Monday as the core of the thermal trough settles overhead. Lows drop into the teens Sunday morning and single digits Monday morning, with potential for wind chills in the single digits each day. The colder airmass is short-lived, however, as the high pressure center drifts overhead and southwest flow initiates a strong warm advective response. High pressure anchors off the Atlantic Coast, establishing a Gulf moisture feed as well. This leads to the next low which ripples into SE Michigan Tuesday.
Initial indications are for wintry mix potential with this system as warm air surges atop the existing cold/shallow airmass.

MARINE

Northwesterly winds begin to decrease by mid morning ending further gale potential as northern Ontario low pressure lifts into northern Quebec. Gradient quickly weakens once this occurs with 20kt or less flow looking likely by this afternoon. A weak mid-level wave swings across the southern half of the region late today/tonight supporting light snow showers but no increases to wind speeds. Strong Canadian high pressure quickly follows maintaining lighter (sub-20kt wind) to close out the weekend. Active but milder pattern favored to develop next work week limiting any stronger wind chances.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 1154 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

AVIATION...

Low amplitude shortwave ridging will build across Southeast Michigan this evening. Low-midlevel warm advection to the south of the dynamic shortwave invof Lake Superior will result in some higher static stability in the 2.0-6.0 kft agl layer early tonight. A cold front will then push across the area after 06z. Saturation has been adequate to provide for some modest elevated instability at approximately 10.0 kft agl. Have seen spotty shower development the past hour and expect it to push east by 07z. Post frontal cold advection will then become increasingly shallow resulting in strengthening midlevel static stability my 12z Saturday morning. Low confidence exists in saturation and cloud below the inversion at 2.5 kft agl around daybreak. No real model signal for gusty winds Saturday with top down saturation occurring in the afternoon.
Frontogenetic light snow band is expected to push into the area after 22z Saturday. Some uncertainty on the preferred track of the snow.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low in ceilings aob 5000 feet this evening, moderate Saturday daybreak.

* High in precipitation type of snow Saturday evening.



DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Gale Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for LHZ361-362.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for LHZ361- 362.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.