Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bunker Hill, OR

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 8:07PM Saturday August 24, 2019 12:49 PM PDT (19:49 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:32PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ310 Coos bay bar- coastal waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca out 10 nm- waters from cape blanco or to pt. St. George ca from 10 to 60 nm- 134 pm pdt Wed may 29 2013 a long-duration moderate to strong north wind event is expected to last from this weekend into early next week. Winds should begin to increase Friday into Saturday...peaking Sunday with storm force wind gusts possible. Very steep and hazardous waves will accompany this wind event and mariners should prepare for dangerous conditions at sea. The strongest winds and highest seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore.
PZZ300 855 Am Pdt Sat Aug 24 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. A weak thermal trough along the coast will bring gusty winds and steep seas to the waters south of cape blanco today through Sunday morning. The thermal trough will strengthen Sunday afternoon through Monday night resulting in strong north winds and a mix of steep to very steep seas. Gusty winds and very steep seas will linger into early Tuesday, then are expected to gradually lower late Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bunker Hill, OR
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location: 43.36, -124.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 241736
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
1036 am pdt Sat aug 24 2019

Updated aviation discussion
Update Minor update for less cloudiness this morning over
marine waters and coos county.

Discussion Very weak and dry cold front is marching through the
forecast area this morning. It looks to be pretty much east of the
cascades now and will exit the forecast area by early afternoon.

We will see a 2 to 4 degree drop in high temperatures for most
areas today and that will be the only effect from this very weak
front. See prev discussion section for details on the rest of the
forecast period.

Aviation For the 24 18z tafs... Skies will remain clear through
this afternoon. Marine stratus will develop once again along the
coast and just offshore with MVFR ceilings to start at north bend,
lowering to ifr with local lifr ceilings late this evening and
tonight. Confidence on the timing of when lower conditions develop
are low to moderate, so watch for updates.

Onshore flow is expected to increase enough for the marine stratus
to push and or develop further inland tonight including the coquille
basin and portions of the umpqua basin. For now kept roseburg clear
through the TAF period, but there is a chance the marine stratus
could sneak in towards daybreak Sunday. Even if it does ceilings
should remainVFR.

ElsewhereVFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with
gusty winds late in the afternoon and evening hours at roseburg,
medford and klamath falls. -petrucelli

Marine Updated 300 am pdt Saturday, 24 august 2019...

a weak thermal trough will persist along the coast today and
tonight. This will bring some gusty north winds to the southern
waters, with small craft advisory winds and seas expected south of
port orford.

The thermal trough will strengthen Sunday afternoon
through Monday. This will result in strong, gusty north winds and a
mix of steep to very steep seas across the waters. Very steep
seas are expected from CAPE blanco south and beyond 10 nm of
shore north of CAPE blanco. Gusts to gale force are expected for
the waters south of CAPE blanco in the late afternoon and evening on
Sunday and again on Monday. Of note, winds may strengthen briefly to
gales late Monday afternoon and evening, mainly for the waters
from gold beach south, beyond 10 nm of shore. Winds and seas will
gradually lower on Tuesday. However a mix of steep to very steep
seas may continue to affect the waters Tuesday morning, with
steep seas lingering across the waters Tuesday afternoon and
evening. -cc

Fire weather Updated 300 am pdt Friday 24 august 2019... The
only noteworthy change with the new suite of model data is a shift
in the GFS to indicate the first hint of instability on Wednesday
afternoon rather than Thursday afternoon. We have added some 5 to
10% probabilities to the Wednesday forecast, but will wait for
any indications of model consistency and model to model agreement
before raising them any higher.

There remain two main short term concerns. First, will be gusty
winds east of the cascades this afternoon and evening with low
relative humidity. Second is breezy winds with moderate to locally
poor overnight recoveries near and at the ridges in fire zones
618, 619 and 620 Sunday night and Monday night. However, we're not
expecting any critical fire concerns in these areas, therefore
we'll just highlight it in the fire weather forecast.

The main driving force for gusty winds east of the cascades this
afternoon and evening will be stronger winds aloft (at 700 and
600mb) along with an increasing pressure gradient. It will bring
speeds stronger than normal at 12 to 18 mph with gusts up to 25
mph. Minimum humidity values in the teens will be common across
the east side this afternoon.

Temperatures won't vary much through the weekend. This is because
we'll have a weak upper trough will slip into the region Saturday
into Sunday. Therefore, temperatures won't change much, if at all
for most locations. However relative humidity may come up just a
bit.

The hottest and driest conditions are likely on Tuesday and
Wednesday with triple digit readings likely for interior westside
valleys.

-petrucelli dw

Prev discussion issued 507 am pdt Sat aug 24 2019
discussion... The weather concerns for the next week remain the
same. As such, there were not any major changes to the forecast
and the main concern remains hot temperatures inland through the
next week with near record or record heat on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Valley highs of 95 to 105 will be common on both days.

The most noteworthy adjustment in the latest data is the 00z gfs
indicating the development of weak instability as early as
Wednesday afternoon, rather than holding off until Thursday
afternoon. The probability of precipitation on Wednesday was only
nudged up to 10% as the ECMWF and ensemble solutions are not as
fast or as deep. In general, the Wednesday through Thursday time
frame still looks to be the focus for monitoring a risk of
thunderstorms. Beyond Thursday, there is a general agreement on a
brief period of ridging before a broad trough and weaker southern
section of a cold front approach the area during day 7-10 next
weekend.

First, a dry, weak cold front will sweep across the area today
into this evening. The main effects will be: a weak onshore push
at the coast with a few patches of low clouds and fog for a few
hours early this morning expected north of CAPE blanco, stronger
than normal westerly winds east of the cascades this afternoon and
evening at 12 to 18 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph, and high
temperatures inland a few degrees cooler on Sunday. Our hottest
temperatures of the summer will follow early in the week as a
strong ridge builds over the western states.

The heat wave will be weakened and instability enhanced by a
trough sweeping northeastward into the pacific northwest on
Thursday. It is still too early to have confidence in which areas
will have the highest probability of thunderstorms. Also, of
course, we will continue to monitor for any justification of
raising the forecast probability for Wednesday.

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 11 am pdt Tuesday
for pzz356.

Hazardous seas warning from 11 am Sunday to 5 am pdt Tuesday for
pzz356.

Small craft advisory from 11 am Sunday to 11 am pdt Tuesday for
pzz350-370.

Hazardous seas warning from 5 pm Sunday to 5 am pdt Tuesday for
pzz370.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm pdt Sunday for pzz376.

Small craft advisory from 5 am to 11 am pdt Tuesday for pzz376.

Hazardous seas warning from 11 am Sunday to 11 am pdt Tuesday
for pzz376.

Krs krs map


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 11 mi73 min W 5.1 G 7 55°F1017.1 hPa
SNTO3 11 mi79 min NNE 4.1 66°F 1018 hPa56°F
46128 22 mi49 min N 7.8 58°F 61°F
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 36 mi49 min 62°F4 ft
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 47 mi55 min NNW 12 G 21 69°F 48°F1016.6 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR8 mi53 minNNW 1110.00 miFair69°F55°F63%1017.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOTH

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N10N7N7N3SE4SE3SE5S4CalmS3SE5SE3Calm3N11
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N18N12N8N4NW3CalmCalmN5CalmCalmCalmSE4NW3NW3CalmNW8N20
2 days agoSE6S6SE84W9W8W6W4CalmW3N7N9N8N7N8N9NW4N5N5NE4N9NE12N10NE8

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, Oregon
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Charleston
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:25 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:20 AM PDT     1.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:32 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:45 AM PDT     4.85 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:39 PM PDT     3.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:32 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:06 PM PDT     6.97 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:06 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.21.31.82.63.54.34.74.84.64.13.63.33.23.54.25.166.776.864.93.6

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston, Oregon (2)
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Charleston
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:25 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:26 AM PDT     1.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:32 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:57 AM PDT     4.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:41 PM PDT     3.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:32 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:07 PM PDT     7.08 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:06 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.31.31.82.63.54.34.854.74.33.73.33.23.54.25.166.87.16.96.25.13.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.