Tuesday, October15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bunker Hill, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 6:35PM Tuesday October 15, 2019 5:01 AM PDT (12:01 UTC) Moonrise 6:54PMMoonset 8:08AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 211 Am Pdt Tue Oct 15 2019
.hazardous seas warning in effect from this evening through Wednesday afternoon...
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Thursday evening...
Today..S wind 5 to 15 kt...rising to 15 to 20 kt late afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 10 seconds.
Tonight..S wind 15 to 20 kt...becoming 15 to 25 kt early in the morning. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. W swell 5 to 6 ft at 11 seconds.
Wed..S wind 15 to 20 kt...rising to 30 kt late in the afternoon. Cape arago southward, S wind 20 to 25 kt...rising to 30 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 5 to 8 ft. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 10 seconds...building to 5 to 8 ft at 16 seconds in the afternoon. Rain.
Wed night..S wind 25 kt...becoming sw 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 6 to 7 ft...subsiding to 4 ft after midnight. W swell 9 to 11 ft...building to 11 to 13 ft after midnight. Rain likely in the evening, then chance of showers and slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Thu..SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 15 to 17 ft. Showers in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon.
Thu night..S wind 15 to 20 kt...veering to sw 10 kt after midnight. Cape arago southward, sw wind 15 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 14 to 16 ft. Rain likely.
Fri..SW wind 5 kt...backing to S in the afternoon, then... Veering to sw. Wind waves 3 ft in the morning...becoming 2 ft or less, then...becoming 3 ft. NW swell 13 ft.
Sat..SW wind 15 to 20 kt...veering to nw in the evening, then... Becoming W 5 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft...becoming 2 ft or less. NW swell 12 ft.
PZZ300 211 Am Pdt Tue Oct 15 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Relatively calm conditions are expected through Tuesday morning. South winds will increase ahead of a cold front Tuesday afternoon and night. Gusty south winds and steep to very steep seas are expected late Tuesday and Wednesday. Then building long period west swell may bring high and steep to very steep seas Wednesday night through Thursday evening.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bunker Hill, OR
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location: 43.36, -124.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 151135
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
435 am pdt Tue oct 15 2019

Discussion
A mostly clear sky and fairly dry air mass over most inland
locations are resulting in strong radiational cooling in valley
locations. This has prompted the issuance of a frost advisory for
portions of the illinois, applegate, and rogue valleys early this
morning.

Meanwhile, a southerly stratus surge has been making it's way
north along the coast overnight and appears to be nearing bandon
and coos bay based on what can be seen on the nighttime
microphysics rgb from goes17. Fog and low clouds have also been
forming during the last hour in the illinois valley, coquille
valley, and in the umpqua basin.

We're expecting a mostly cloudy day along and near the coast today
and clouds gradually increasing from the west through the day
today elsewhere. Clouds should be thin enough to allow for
another substantial warm-up across inland areas with daily
maximums likely to end up at to a few degrees above calendar
normals.

Cloud cover is likely to prevent west side frost tonight, but
we'll have to keep an eye on that again, as guidance continues to
over predict both cloud cover and resultant temperatures, and
dewpoints look as if they will be similar Wednesday morning to
what they are this morning.

The forecast was updated overnight for today through the weekend,
primarily to increase precipitation probabilities during high
confidence precipitation periods, to adjust amounts, and to adjust
temperatures and snow levels to be more consistent with each
other. Southerly winds will become breezy ahead of the front
Wednesday into Wednesday evening, but should remain below advisory
thresholds. Rain is expected to arrive along and near the coast
tonight into Wednesday morning, becoming moderate to heavy across
curry county Wednesday afternoon. For areas inland from the coast
rain is expected to overspread the area Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night. Snow is likely to begin dusting the peaks above
6500 feet Thursday morning.

Showers are expected Thursday and Friday, mainly across nw
portions of the forecast area with snow levels 4500-5500 feet in
the morning rising to 5500-6500 feet in the afternoon and early
evening hours.

Friday night into Saturday a chilly soaker will affect most of the
area with a quarter to a half inch or more of rain, with snowfall
in the mountains above 5kft. 4-8 inches of snow appear likely
above 5500 feet in the oregon cascades for that time period. This
weather system bears some watching, as it's likely to be a quick
hitter in terms of precipitation.

At least one more round of valley rain and mountain snow is
expected Sunday before before a warming and drying trend
commences. Btl

Aviation For the 15 06z tafs... Except for along the coast,VFR
conditions are expected through the TAF period. Models are now
indicating an ifr ceiling this morning on the coast north of cape
blanco, but this is the first that models are indicating this, so
confidence is not high. Sven

Marine Updated 200 am pdt Monday 15 october 2019... Calmer
conditions are expected through Tuesday. Winds will shift to
the south as a cold front moves towards the waters Tuesday. This
will be the first in a series of stronger fronts which are expected
to move across the waters through late this week. Gusty south winds
and steep to very steep seas are expected with the first front
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winds will be strongest from cape
blanco north and beyond 3 nm from shore. Late Wednesday morning
winds and wind gusts approaching gales could be possible west and
northwest of CAPE arago within a few nm from the cape. The gale
force winds have not been warned upon because of how brief and
isolated they are, but over short durations, winds may reach the
necessary speeds. If nothing else seas will be wind driven and very
steep with hazardous seas conditions likely. Thus, a hazardous seas
warning has been issued.

Not long after the front moves onshore, a high and long period west
to northwest swell will build into the coastal waters Wednesday
night through Thursday evening. Guidance suggest swell heights
peaking out between 16 and 18 feet at 16 seconds Thursday into
Thursday evening before gradually diminishing late Thursday night
into Friday. Given the above mentioned scenario, a hazardous seas
watch has been issued for the heavier swell. Also a high surf
advisory has been issued.

Meanwhile small craft conditions are expected outside of the
hazardous seas warning and watch due to gusty winds and choppy wind
driven seas Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon, then for the
higher swell Wednesday night through at least Thursday evening. For
details on all the hazards, please see mwwmfr.

It's possible for small craft conditions to continue into Friday,
but there's still plenty of time to address this. -miles

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... High surf advisory from 5 am to 11 pm pdt Thursday for
orz021-022.

Frost advisory until 9 am pdt this morning for orz024-026.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters...

- high surf advisory from 5 am to 11 pm pdt Thursday for
pzz350-356.

- small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 11 pm pdt
Thursday for pzz350-356-370-376.

- hazardous seas watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
evening for pzz350-370-376.

- hazardous seas warning from 11 pm this evening to 5 pm pdt
Wednesday for pzz350-370.

Btl mb jrs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 11 mi86 min SSW 1.9 G 2.9 50°F1015.8 hPa
46128 22 mi62 min SSW 18 49°F 55°F
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 36 mi32 min 57°F5 ft
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 47 mi44 min SSE 6 G 8 46°F 49°F1018.1 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR8 mi66 minSSE 310.00 miFair47°F46°F100%1016.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOTH

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE3SE3CalmCalmW4N5NW8N9N13
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N16N11N10N11N4CalmS4S3S3--SE6CalmS3SE6
1 day agoN4CalmCalmCalmNE3N5N14N12N15
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N15N15N11N9N4CalmCalmN4CalmCalmSE4
2 days agoCalmSE6SE5SE6SE7SE4N4N3W8W4W4W6W3NW5N3NW53NE4N5NE5NW5N3CalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for Coos Bay, Oregon
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Empire, Coos Bay, Oregon
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.