Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bunker Hill, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:40AMSunset 4:43PM Saturday December 14, 2019 11:30 AM PST (19:30 UTC) Moonrise 7:23PMMoonset 10:02AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 812 Am Pst Sat Dec 14 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday evening...
Today..S wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 11 to 13 ft at 15 seconds. Showers.
Tonight..S wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 9 to 10 ft at 14 seconds. Slight chance of tstms in the evening. Showers through the night.
Sun..SW wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 10 ft at 13 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Sun night..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 8 to 10 ft. Chance of rain.
Mon..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 8 ft. Slight chance of rain.
Mon night..SE wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 9 ft.
Tue..SE wind 10 to 15 kt...veering to s. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 3 to 4 ft. W swell 9 to 10 ft.
Wed..S wind 10 to 15 kt...rising to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 6 ft. W swell 9 ft.
PZZ300 812 Am Pst Sat Dec 14 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Heavy and steep long period swell will remain high into Sunday, with winds remaining below advisory criteria through at least Wednesday. Seas gradually diminish, subsiding below advisory criteria late Sunday into Monday. Another swell train moves into the waters Tuesday ahead of the next frontal system. This front will bring increasing southerly winds Wednesday, and with building seas, conditions will likely become hazardous to small craft. In the meantime, periods of moderate to heavy rain will continue with a relative break expected Monday into Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bunker Hill, OR
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location: 43.36, -124.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 141928 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1128 AM PST Sat Dec 14 2019

. Updated for the aviation discussion .

DISCUSSION. The latest satellite image clearly shows a shortwave trough moving south towards our area. Precipitation will reach the coast late this morning, then moving onshore this afternoon. However the best chance for rain will be along the coast, western Douglas and most of Josephine County this afternoon. Precipitation chances decrease further inland and along the Cascades. Made some adjustments to the forecast to better reflect the short range high resolution models. The morning sounding shows the freezing level at 4100 feet. Therefore snow level is expected to start out around 3000 feet this morning, then increasing to around 3500 feet this afternoon. However it could lower briefly in heavier showers near and at the coast late this afternoon. Please see the previous discussion for more details on the weather for tonight and beyond. -Petrucelli

AVIATION. For the 14/18Z TAFs . A front will push onshore today. IFR ceilings west of the Cascades will lift midday and then quickly transition to VFR ceilings as the front pushes inland. VFR ceilings will lower to MVFR and IFR ceilings from west to east this afternoon and evening as rain spreads east. Visibilities will also deteriorate in precipitation. -Sandler

MARINE. Updated 345 AM PST Saturday, 14 December 2019 . Heavy and steep long period swell will remain high into Sunday, with winds remaining below advisory criteria through at least Wednesday. Seas will gradually diminish this weekend, subsiding below advisory criteria late Sunday into Monday. This will be short-lived, however, as another swell train moves into the waters Tuesday ahead of the next frontal system. This front will bring increasing southerly winds Wednesday, and with building seas, conditions will likely become hazardous to small craft. In the meantime, periods of moderate to heavy rain will continue with a relative break expected Monday into Tuesday. /BR-y/Sven

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 401 AM PST Sat Dec 14 2019/

DISCUSSION . Rain and snow has moved east with the short wave and brief ridging will keep the area dry through the remainder of the morning hours. Infrared satellite imagery shows another system offshore that has moved inside of 130W. Models have struggled for consistency with this short wave related to the extent of inland precipitation today through early Sunday. Have stuck close to earlier forecasts in keeping likely to categorical pops coastward mainly this afternoon with chance pops inland to about the Cascades. The least confidence here is basically everywhere inland from the coast range. This system will continue to produce some chances for light rain and snow across the region tonight. Then, despite ridging building in, some light overrunning precipitation remains possible Sunday into Sunday night. Chances Sunday will be fairly low - on the order of 20 or 30 percent, increasing a bit Sunday night mainly along and west of the Cascades. Nothing significant.

The region should remain dry Monday afternoon through Tuesday under weak high pressure. Thereafter, the onset of a potentially significant rain event looms starting late-week.

There is good agreement at this time that a prolonged atmospheric river will impact the region starting late Wednesday or Thursday. Current GFS and EC are in agreement with the general ensemble camp of a deep trough moving into the Gulf of Alaska allowing for a moist southwest flow rooted north of Hawaii aimed into the PacNW. Tough to be confident with rain amounts at this lead time, however, due to the potential duration of about 3 days, a 5-10 inch event for the south coast looks reasonable at first glance. We'll need to see how this shapes up over the next couple days before we ramp up messaging. Stavish

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHAO3 - 9432780 - Charleston, OR 11 mi55 min SSE 4.1 G 7 52°F1017.6 hPa
46128 22 mi91 min 44°F 52°F
46229 - UMPQUA OFFSHORE, OR (139) 36 mi31 min 52°F13 ft
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 47 mi49 min SSE 12 G 16 49°F 52°F1018.6 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Oregon Regional Airport, OR8 mi35 minSSE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy44°F41°F89%1017.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOTH

Wind History from OTH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE4N4N4N7N6N4CalmSE3SE5SE4SE5SE7SE9SE9SE8SE7SE7SE8SE8SE7SE9S10SE9
1 day agoSW15
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SW10S6S7SW7S7S5S4S4SW7S3E4SE4SE5CalmSE5SE5SE6SE10SE7E3
2 days agoSE7S6SE4SE4SE3SE6S6S8S21
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S7S7S8S7S8S7S5S5S7S9SW18
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Tide / Current Tables for Coos Bay, Oregon
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Empire, Coos Bay, Oregon
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.