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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 230 Am Pst Mon Dec 11 2023

Today..N wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves sw 3 ft at 5 seconds... Shifting to the N 2 ft at 4 seconds. W swell 7 to 8 ft at 11 seconds...subsiding to 6 ft at 11 seconds in the afternoon. SWell and nw 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog before Sunrise. Scattered showers through the day.
Tonight..NE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 4 to 5 ft at 10 seconds and nw 3 to 4 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy dense fog after midnight.
Tue..NE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 3 seconds in the morning...becoming less than 2 ft. SWell W 3 ft at 9 seconds and nw 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Tue night..SE wind 10 kt...veering to S after midnight. Wind waves less than 2 ft. SWell W 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds and nw 1 to 2 ft at 8 seconds.
Wed..S wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves less than 2 ft...becoming W 2 ft at 3 seconds in the afternoon. SWell W 2 ft at 8 seconds and nw 1 to 2 ft at 7 seconds. Chance of rain.
Wed night..S wind 5 to 10 kt...backing to E after midnight. Wind waves W 2 ft at 5 seconds. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 14 seconds... Building to 9 ft at 12 seconds after midnight. SWell less than 2 ft. Rain likely.
Thu..E wind 10 kt...veering to se. Wind waves W 2 ft at 4 seconds in the morning...becoming less than 2 ft. SWell W 9 to 10 ft at 13 seconds.
Fri..SE wind 10 kt...backing to E after midnight. Wind waves se 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 7 to 8 ft at 13 seconds.

PZZ300 230 Am Pst Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A cold front near shore will continue to diminish the steep seas and strong south winds this morning. A weak thermal trough will develop today with winds becoming northerly. Seas south of port orford may become steep this afternoon into tonight. Quieter conditions follow Tuesday into Wednesday. A weakening cold front may produce high and steep seas Thursday.

FXUS66 KMFR 111138 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 338 AM PST Mon Dec 11 2023

UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

AVIATION
11/12Z TAFs...A weakening front will keep the precipitation through parts of this morning. It will fall mainly as rain from the coast to the Cascades, but with lighter amounts and mixed precipitation also from the Cascade crest across northern portions of south central Oregon. Freezing levels will be around 7000 to 8000 feet.

This is producing a wide range of conditions with areas of IFR near shore, and patchy MVFR, but mainly VFR ceilings inland. Ceilings will thicken and lower into the early morning with areas of mountain obscuration increasing.

Showers will gradually taper off through the morning, but low level moisture will linger with areas of MVFR persisting into the afternoon. More widespread valley LIFR/IFR with a stabilizing air mass is likely tonight. -DW/Hermansen

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 315 AM PST Mon Dec 11 2023/

DISCUSSION...Radar is showing isolated to scattered light showers still moving through the area at this time. One shortwave disturbance is exiting to the southeast early this morning, while another upper trough will swing through the area this afternoon and evening. While this will keep some showers going, we should see an overall decrease in shower coverage through the day and especially tonight as the trough settles into the Great Basin.
Upper ridging offshore will move in over the area Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in a period of dry weather, though there is the expectation of nighttime/morning low clouds/fog, especially in the valleys west of the Cascades. Overall, temperatures should be fairly typical for early December, if not averaging a little above normal.

The next front will approach the coast and try to move onshore Wednesday night, but upper support for the front will be lacking and focused off to our north. As such, the front will fall apart before it can move very far inland. A period of rain is still likely (60-80% chance) over the coastal waters and from about Cape Blanco northward along the coast during this time frame, but PoPs drop off significantly farther inland, down to 20% around Roseburg. Areas east of there probably won't see any rain from it at all.

By Thursday, the flow aloft will become southerly and this will force the front to move back to the north as a warm front offshore. This will also allow the upper ridge to rebuild resulting in dry weather through Saturday. Overall, expect above normal daytime temperatures with near normal nighttime lows.
But, low clouds and fog will probably impact this a bit in the west side valleys.

While this is occurring, a closed low will set up well offshore of the California coast. Models show this system eventually opening up and the upper ridge shifting to the Intermountain West.
This will allow some energy to eject to the northeast and possibly into our area over the weekend. We've largely maintained the NBM forecast here due to uncertainty with exactly when this will occur. PoPs do increase across SW sections Saturday night, and are highest along the coast and western Siskiyou County on Sunday (30-50% chance). It appears the best chance at precipitation will come Sunday night into early next week as the upper level energy shifts through the region. -Spilde

MARINE
Updated 230 AM Monday December 11, 2023
Impacts look to be relatively minor this week. Winds weaken and turn northerly behind the cold front early today. A weak thermal trough could build over waters south of Cape Blanco this afternoon into Tuesday morning, although wind speeds are not currently expected to be impactful. Periods of steep seas are possible in waters south of Port Orford and from 3 nm to 30 nm from shore late this afternoon into early Tuesday morning.

Quieter winds and seas will follow Tuesday until Wednesday evening.
The next front is expected to weaken as it approaches the area Wednesday night but it may produce high and steep swell dominated seas on Thursday. Seas are likely to diminish Friday, then trend higher next weekend. -DW/Hermansen

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.

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