Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 8:38 PM Moonrise 1:58 PM   Moonset 2:19 AM

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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 835 Am Pdt Fri May 17 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday evening - .
Today - N wind 15 to 20 kt, rising to 20 to 25 kt this afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Wave detail: N 6 ft at 8 seconds and W 4 ft at 12 seconds. Tonight - N wind 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Wave detail: nw 8 ft at 8 seconds and W 4 ft at 11 seconds. Sat - N wind 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: nw 6 ft at 8 seconds and W 3 ft at 11 seconds. Sat night - N wind 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: nw 5 ft at 8 seconds, W 3 ft at 10 seconds and sw 2 ft at 21 seconds. Sun - N wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Wave detail: nw 6 ft at 8 seconds, W 3 ft at 14 seconds and sw 2 ft at 18 seconds. Sun night - N wind 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Wave detail: nw 7 ft at 8 seconds, nw 3 ft at 13 seconds and sw 2 ft at 18 seconds. Mon - N wind 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft. Wave detail: nw 7 ft at 8 seconds, nw 3 ft at 12 seconds and sw 2 ft at 17 seconds. Mon night - N wind 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft. Wave detail: nw 7 ft at 8 seconds, W 3 ft at 12 seconds and sw 2 ft at 17 seconds. Tue - N wind 5 to 10 kt, backing to W in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft. Wave detail: nw 5 ft at 8 seconds, nw 3 ft at 11 seconds and sw 2 ft at 16 seconds. Tue night - NW wind around 10 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Wave detail: nw 4 ft at 7 seconds, nw 4 ft at 15 seconds and sw 2 ft at 15 seconds.

PZZ300 835 Am Pdt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - A thermal trough pattern will maintain gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas through the weekend. The strongest winds and steepest seas are expected south of cape blanco and during the afternoons and evenings. As the thermal trough strengthens today, a brief period of gales is possible south of pistol river this afternoon. Conditions improve early next week as the thermal trough gets disrupted by an upper level pattern change.

FXUS66 KMFR 171608 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 908 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024

DISCUSSION
It took a while but the marine push brought low clouds into the Rogue Valley this morning. Low clouds extended across many of the westside Oregon inland valleys this morning.
These clouds will dissipate by midday with near or a little above normal high temperatures. A cooldown will occur this weekend with the coolest day on Sunday as a sharper trough passes through.
There could be another marine push Saturday night with clouds into the Rogue Valley again Sunday morning.

Sandler




PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 315 AM PDT Fri May 17 2024/

UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows marine stratus along the coast north of Cape Blanco, Coquille Basin and now filling into most of the Umpqua Basin and along the Cascades. The marine stratus could also get banked up along the north Facing slopes of the Siskiyous and possibly the south end of the Rogue Valley, just south of Ashland towards daybreak.

Dry weather will continue today with the aforementioned cloud cover dissipating during the morning hours with mostly clear skies by the afternoon. Onshore flow will result in cooler afternoon temperatures for interior locations this afternoon. Along the coast, the marine stratus could linger north of Cape Blanco for most of the day, although it could peel back just off the coast for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening, before returning.

This weekend we'll be under the influence of weak upper troughing, with the upper trough north of our area Saturday, then dropping south Sunday. However the track of the upper trough does not favor precipitation. So while it will remain dry, afternoon temperatures will be in line with seasonal norms. We'll still experience the typical late afternoon and early evening gusty breezes for the interior westside valleys and east of the Cascades this weekend.

The majority of next week will be dry. The one exception could be Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night as a weak upper trough drops in from the northwest. Odds are it will remain dry, but a few showers cannot be ruled out along the north coast, Umpqua Basin and northern Cascades.

Wednesday and Thursday are likely to be dry, then as we get towards the end of next week, the operational ECMWF shows a stronger upper low moving into our area bringing a higher chance of precipitation.
In contrast the operational GFS is dry with the upper trough sliding over the interior which typically results in dry weather. Looking further, some members the GFS ensembles show precipitation in our area and the majority of the individual ECMWF members show precipitation, therefore we'll keep at least a slight chance of precip in the forecast for portions of the forecast area.
-Petrucelli

AVIATION
17/12Z TAFs
A very weak front is passing through the region this early morning. This has brought some lower MVFR stratus to the region, generally northwest of Grants Pass, though this has started to filter into the north Rogue/Illinois valleys per satellite imagery. Ceilings are already starting to break up in northwest Coos and Douglas counties, however, and conditions in these cloudier areas will improve to VFR later this morning. VFR with mostly clear skies will then prevail area-wide for the remainder of the day, with more breezy north winds in the afternoon and early evening. -CSP

MARINE
Updated 830 AM Friday, May 17, 2024
A thermal trough pattern will maintain gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas through the weekend. Seas will be steepest and winds will strongest south of Cape Blanco, and during the afternoons and evenings. The thermal trough strengthens again today, especially towards the late afternoon, and a brief period of northerly gales is possible late this afternoon beyond 15 nm from shore and south of Pistol River.

The thermal trough will linger through the weekend, maintaining gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas. Conditions improve early next week as the upper level pattern changes and the thermal trough gets disrupted through the first half of the week. /BR-y/CSP

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376.

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